The Left's Disconnect With Reality
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-08-25 07:08
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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The Left's Disconnect With Reality
 

Huffington Post has an interesting article up this morning that, like much of what they publish, contains a nugget of truth wrapped in a fascia of nonsense.

The truth is found in the headline and first couple of paragraphs:

Companies are squeezing greater profits out of their employees, even as layoffs rise and the outlook for hiring and raises remains mixed, a recent study has found.

That's called "productivity."  It is what drives economies.  It is also what leads to a natural deflationary tendency in the economy over time - one that pundits and so-called "economists" try like hell to dismiss and claim doesn't exist.

But the wrapping of the message in the "big lie" is found in the picture above the story - an older woman waving a sign in protest: I did not cause the recession.

Sorry, but the evidence is overwhelming that the common man and woman most-certainly did.

It was, indeed, two acts over the space of more than 30 years that caused the mess we're now in:

  • Belief that your home price will rise forever, and therefore you can treat it as something that will always go up in value and thus can be used as an ATM machine.  Homes are durable goods but are in fact consumed over time.  They are not "stores of value" or "appreciating assets."  In fact they're depreciating assets (just as the IRS or, for that matter, stop performing maintenance on yours and see what happens.)  Yes, the common man had plenty of help in forming that belief, but the responsibility for playing this game and deluding yourself remains yours.

  • Demanding services from the government that you are not willing to pay for with current tax revenues, not levies on your children.  In fact, your children would be entirely within their rights to disown you for what you've done and should do soWere your acts to take place in the present tense instead of in a "deferred" fashion in many states you would qualify to be shot by them right where you stand!  Theft is theft, no matter how you do it.  That you have chosen to use the jackbooted leg of the government to press upon your children's necks via demanding that the government take on more and more debt to provide services you refuse to pay for with your own acquired wealth and savings is an outrage and threatens to destroy our society.  Yes, Mildred, it is your fault.

The fact is that debt saturation at all levels is why we're in this mess.  It is also why we cannot get out of this mess without recognition of the truth and removal of the excess leverage through the economy.  Attempting to play games with these facts will simply make the malaise worse and risks an all-on collapse.

Fairy tales make for good bedtime stories but horrible public policy, and those who attempt to substitute them for cold, hard mathematical facts, along with the screaming mouthpieces that pen articles such as the above, deserve everything that is coming to them.

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User Info The Left's Disconnect With Reality in forum [Market-Ticker]
Vitchilo
Posts: 4617
Incept: 2011-04-27

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Not only that... but the left's hypocrisy with Obama is quite astonishing.
http://www.democracynow.org/2011/8/24/he....
NY Attorney General Booted from Mortgage Company Settlement Task Force

New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman has been kicked off a 50-state task force negotiating a possible settlement with the nation’s largest mortgage companies. The move came just one day after the New York Times reported that the Obama administration was pressuring Schneiderman to agree to a broad state settlement with banks over questionable foreclosure tactics.

The federal settlement has been widely criticized because it would insulate the nation’s largest banks, including Bank of America, Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo, from all criminal investigations in exchange for civil fines.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/blo....

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"Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit upon his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats." -- H.L. Mencken
Sharon
Posts: 4352
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Green
Odessa, Missouri
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Well, we don't know for sure that Mildred is behind this. Maybe she didn't take on too much debt and demand government services.

On the other hand, I can remember being irritated by the way people viewed their home as an investment, as soon as I was old enough to contemplate buying a home. Viewing your home as an investment is just morally offensive, and is yet another example of commoditizing things whose value is personal, social, and intrinsic.

But we are so far down the road of commoditizing everything and everyone that many people will find this objection incomprehensible.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.

Wwwild
Posts: 30
Incept: 2011-07-11

Pacific Northwest
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FYI: Looks like "just as the IRS" should be "just ask the IRS" - as if we dare :-)

www
Karlmarxghost
Posts: 4148
Incept: 2009-01-26
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I'm Your Huckleberry
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It is called productivity, I totally agree. My beef is said well in this quote from the article

Quote:

Yet corporate profits were strong in 2010 and 2011, rising to a record $1.68 trillion by the fourth quarter of last year. That would indicate that it is largely shareholders, not workers, that are reaping the benefits of enhanced productivity, with surveys indicating that the increasingly efficient American workforce should expect next year's raises to keep up with rising prices at best.


The increased productivity isnt benefiting the productive peon, it is benefiting the management and investment class.

Productivity keeps businesses in business(for a little while), but a business shouldnt be afraid to compensate people for that productivity instead of keeping the benefits amongst themselves otherwise the productive peons wont have the money to buy the very products and services they work to produce.

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My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
Vicious_cycle
Posts: 253
Incept: 2009-03-10
Gold
Chardon, OH
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Attempting to games with these facts
s/b
Attempting to PLAY games with these facts
Tz
Posts: 785
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varies
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One more thing - they want high wage factory jobs, but want to pay Walmart prices.

They want ninny-nanny regulations, but want creative entrepenurs to create the jobs.

They want centralized near absolute power (except over sex it seems), without the absolute corruption.

They want 'wise' regulators to do things instead of giving individuals the ability to protect themselves or to get justice themselves. Power to the people was a lie fro the left.

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"I am become debt, destroyer of worlds"
Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
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Arizona via California
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Quote:
Belief that your home price will rise forever, ... Homes are durable goods but are in fact consumed over time. They are not "stores of value" or "appreciating assets." In fact they're depreciating assets


I beg to differ. Homes most certainly WERE appreciating assets, and WERE supposed to go up in price forever.

The FED facilitates inflation, not stable currency, and this is reflected in asset classes and social behavior the government wishes to subsidize. It has been this way for 30 years. The government/Fed has always intended home prices to rise, forever.

Most didnt' use their homes as "an atm". Many used their homes as a "store of wealth", saving their equity for retirement.

So what happened?

Criminals infested the system, and stole the money via the secondary market. (securitization) causing the crash in home prices, the instant the theft was discovered.

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Unknownsailor
Posts: 140
Incept: 2009-04-06

Haze Grey and Underway Via Bremerton, WA
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Saying the left has lost touch with reality is like saying that the sun rises in the east. The problem is that their reality isn't our reality, and they desire to make it so, at the point of a government gun if necessary.
Wis/min
Posts: 5364
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Gold A True American Patriot!
On the border
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Quote:
Homes most certainly WERE appreciating assets, and WERE supposed to go up in price forever.
I suppose you could say that about gold too. Well, until this week anyway.

Not so good as a means of storing wealth.

Bubbles burst. Period.
Pod
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An old proverb that seems to fit:

A young man that's not liberal has no heart, an old man that's not conservative has no brain.
Halfbrite
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Now about Mildred:

Did she cause the economy/markets/housing to crash by cashing her social security check? Not by herself. The totality of the "welfare state" is responsible for the overload of debt and the screwing of our children and grandchildren.

Any entity that receives "something for nothing" is at fault. Here's my list, in no particular order:

military industrial complex
health care industry
education industry
auto industry (that's new!)
welfare
medicare
social security disability
social security
medicaid
guaranteed pensions
public employees
employees in any of the above industries

FWIW

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Halfbrite
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Wis said:
Quote:
Bubbles burst. Period.


You are applying stock market acumen to real world events. Yes, bubbles burst, when they become overbought, as you suggest gold may be.

Criminal investment schemes that produce a "bubble" burst the instant the criminality is uncovered.




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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Wis/min
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Quote:
Yes, bubbles burst, when they become overbought, as you suggest gold may be.
Just as houses were overbought and overhyped.

It's that simple.
Joejohns
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There hasn't been a "left" in 50-60 years in this country.

It's a joke to rail on the "left" now.

They sold out long ago. Long ago.

Sure some may mouth the words but by their actions you see they are fake.

By the way as in all things balance is good.

Carry on.

Halfbrite
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Wis, houses were never "overbought" - you're using stock market jargon to describe something that never happened. It's an invalid simile.

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Bluebird
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This would apply to both left and right. Both sides take many things for granted.


Wis/min
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Houses were sold as an "investment" that could not lose, just like gold.

So yes , it did happen.

It was a giant manipulated game by willing participants. Home buyer, investor, banker, real estate agent, appraiser, and the government and it's politicians.

Halfbrite
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@Wis: There were (of course) some idiots who made investments that they couldn't afford - there always is. That does NOT make a commodity "overbought" and subject to "bubble correction".

I suppose you could say Ipods are "overbought" - that doesn't mean the value will crash tomorrow.

However, that Ipod value will crash tomorrow if discovered they stop playing music on 8/27/11. That's what happened in Aug, 2007 - the fraudulent mbs wall street had sold, "stopped playing music".

It had nothing to do with housing being "overbought".

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Wis/min
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@Halfbrite

By overbought I simply mean that millions of people bought homes that had no business doing so because they were "promised" they could not lose by the agent, the bankers, their political leadership etc.

That in turn drove the price of houses well beyond reasonable and created the bubble.

So no matter how you slice it, they were "overbought".

Centrx
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iPods are not usually resold, they are held for the life of the product.
Halfbrite
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@Wis: From wickipedia, Bubble:
Quote:
...This leads to an upward spiral that takes prices far above the levels which can be justified by any rational assessment of the real value of the future cash flows an investment may generate. This is an investment bubble.


...FAR ABOVE FUTURE CASH FLOW... But housing mbs wasn't "far above future cash flow" - to the contrary, it was actually FAR BELOW FUTURE CASH FLOW, and a great deal, so wall street said. They even provided reams of facts and statitistics to prove the FUTURE CASH FLOW FROM MBS WAS SWEET AND GUARANTEED, so buy it today!

No sale Wis - there was no "housing bubble" and housing was not "overbought" (as defined by wickipedia and generally accepted as an "overbought" conditiion.)

This is an important concept to understand when trying to figure out what actually happened, and who caused it.

There was simply massive fraud, by bankers, on a global scale.

Did that attract unethical and crooked investors, realtors, appraisers, buyers, sellers, etc - sure it did, but the primary cause of this disaster was banker fraud, and government capture.

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"

Wis/min
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Quote:
There was simply massive fraud, by bankers, on a global scale.
You let off the home buyers off far too easily.


They were assured of positive gains on their "investment"

Overbought and definitely a bubble.

They is just no way to avoid calling it what it was.

Real estate bubble

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Real_estate....


Quote:
A real estate bubble or property bubble (or housing bubble for residential markets) is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets. It is characterized by rapid increases in valuations of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then decline.




Jwm_in_sb
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California Desert
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Quote:
@Wis: There were (of course) some idiots who made investments that they couldn't afford - there always is. That does NOT make a commodity "overbought" and subject to "bubble correction"


Ummm, your Real***** stripes are showing HalfBrite. It sure as hell was overbought in SoCal (SD, LA, OC) where RE was like ****ing "Religion". People knew damn well something was wrong but didn't care because they assumed that they could dump it off on the next sucker and climb the property ladder. When the general populace ran out of hot money (bad loans) and generally wised up to fact that the ponzi scheme was over, it all crashed.

DO NOT PEDDLE THAT BULL**** HERE.....

Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
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Green
Arizona via California
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Wis, you and I are probably debating semantics.

I'm stating that a bubble created by massive, systemic, fraud is quite different from a commodity being "overbought", attracting speculators, then "popping" when the big players exit the trade.

Selling outright fraudulent "insurance" (selling CDS, without the ability to pay), and selling fraudulent MBS (as evidenced by lack of assigments into the "security") are quite different than the terms "overbought" or "bubble" connotates to those in the TF community.

It's an important distinction when looking for the primary cause of the crash of real estate values, and many here like to blame the victims for the crash?

Without the massive fraud in securitization of mbs, the fed could have continued it's traditional price inflation, and the crash would never have occurred. Without the exponentially higher cost of the bogus insurance (CDS) wall street created, the problem of loans gone bad could have been repaired for a miniscule fraction of the current cost.

JWM: Keep blaming the victims, and using perjoratives. I'll stick to rational debate, buttressed by facts.


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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"

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