To S&P: Time For The Downgrade
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-08-11 13:53
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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To S&P: Time For The Downgrade
 

This time to either "D" (pick one of dumb, doofus, default, douche or my personal favorite deadbeat) or, if you prefer, "F" (fail, fraud, or any one of a number of other good "F" words - including the good old F-bomb.)

Pelosi picks Clyburn, Beccera and Van Hollen.

Isn't this grand?  We now have the (unconstitutional) SuperCongress. 

Why unconstitutional?  Well that's simple: All revenue bills must originate in The House.  Since spending inevitably encompasses revenues (unless it spends nothing, in which case it's not a spending bill) The Senate, by law, has no right of involvement until after The House introduces and passes the legislation.

But these little matters of the "Constitution" have never bothered Congress.  Barry uses it to wipe in the morning, as does Pelosi, and I've seen little evidence that it's not in the Republican restrooms in the House or Senate over the years either.

The more-pressing issue, however, is that there won't be an agreement with this construct.  Fiscal consolidation is very unlikely to actually happen.  I'd like to be somewhat of an optimist that the political powers that be would recognize the reality of mathematics - specifically, that exponents make impossible continual deficit spending - but I don't expect these jackwads to live within the boundaries of mathematics.

Therefore, I reiterate that we will be downgraded again.  And again.  And again.

You've got about four months folks, at the outside, before this becomes apparent as S&P has their back to the wall once again and issues exactly what they said they would.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Smacktle
Posts: 1370
Incept: 2009-01-20
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Texas
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I'm not having much fun watching this train wreck anymore.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Steph4liberty
Posts: 1727
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At what point will a representative/senator not chosen for the Super CONgress have legal standing to raise the constitutional aspect with the courts? Immediately following the announcement of all members to it? Or with the first act taken by the committee?

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"Man will never be free until the last Banker is strangled with the entrails of the last Politician" - unknown

"This isn't a market anymore, it's a computer game." - Drench
Vidad
Posts: 97
Incept: 2010-08-15
Green
Florida
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Pin the tail on the donkey is too easy when everyone's an ass.

Who are these people and what have they done to America?
Swampwoman
Posts: 387
Incept: 2009-12-06

NE Florida
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I'm feeling very ill right now.

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“A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." --Thomas Paine
Themortgagedude
Posts: 8894
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saint louis
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SP should just come out and state what is needed to get the AAA rating back. What is necessary to maintain the AA+ rating and what is the rating if they fail to reach an agreement. That way there would be wailing of how unfair it was when they downgrade later. He should go on 60 Minutes, The Colbert Show, John Stewart, Tonite Show - anything people watch and state this.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Joejohns
Posts: 694
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This the kabuki to end all.

This SUPER DUPER was never meant to bring a bill to the floor for a vote.

Thus it's not out of bounds until and unless they actually vote on something from this SUPER DUPER. Even if they would as long as the bill is brought forth by the HOUSE members(of course) then that fits the letter of the law.

It's no different than how all bills are done as the actual bill is not done by House members but by lobby *****s and their lawyer scum who write the bills and then hand pick one of the idiot scum to introduce.

The whole idea of this was to get the "trigger" cuts through without being forced to vote them up/down.

Then all can adjourn for the whorish campaign season with no finger prints on the bill.

Look over there ---- no over there --- no up there.

Look Ma no hands.

bwahhhhaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


p.s. No spending bill that I am aware of in my lifetime has "originated" in the House. They are all placed in a House members corrupt little paws by their owners.

Visualcsharp
Posts: 343
Incept: 2009-12-19
Silver
Round Rock, TX
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Smacktle wrote..
I'm not having much fun watching this train wreck anymore.


Popcorn gettin' stale?

Mine's been moldy for quite some time now.
Joejohns
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train was wrecked long ago you are looking at the mash units running around.
Wawawa
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San Diego, CA
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Now lobbyist instead of having 535 people on the payroll they will only have 12 people (Sup. Congress) on the payroll.

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RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :)
Radcondive
Posts: 191
Incept: 2010-09-16

Charleston, SC
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If any congressturd had any balls (or ovaries), they would immediately start raising heck with the citizens, then openly state that they are pursuing legal avenues with the supreme court. The Govenors of ALL 50 states (57 states if you're obambi)should immediately call their respective senators and state unequivacably that failure to challenge this is grounds for recall. Oh crap, that little 17th amendment thing. Hmmm, how about succession? Crap, this is no longer funny.
Joejohns
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Downsizing , I like it.

Is this a new efficient gvt?
Jstanley01
Posts: 8263
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Silver A True American Patriot!
San Antonio, Texas
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CONgress long ago forsook the country's best interests for a single-minded pursuit of the aggrandizement of government and the extension of its powers. By now at every level of governance in this country, the politcos' survival hinges on their ability to hoodwink people into thinking they are one and the same thing.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Mannfm11
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You guys should read this.

http://www.acting-man.com/?p=9490

The US is less screwed than most of the rest of the world. But, this Super 12 is a damn politboro at best. Ovomit is going to send what the fascists want them to do and they are going to rubber stamp it. The Tea Party has been demonized to death as the cause for this mess, like not giving the Chief enough money to spend out his term was what caused this mess.

If you look at the CDS's on the Acting-Man link, you will see that the whole of Europe is ****ed. From the Periphery to the core. France looks to be going parabolic. I believe his first chart always has Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Japan on it. You might note the upward move in CDS's on Japan. The trade data today listed less than $10 billion in imports from Japan. It used to be the deficit with them was $10 billion a month 20 years ago. We could balance trade for a month with export of the toilet paper they are going to need over there.

One thing Tenebrarum wrote today was that BAC bought CFC to cover up the huge losses as counter party they had as insurer of CFC. Might as well buy the cow if she is dying and you hold the note. How much dirty laundry is out there?

I don't pay a lot of attention to politics, mainly because these guys are like dogs howling at the moon in this situation. The moon isn't going to leave and neither is this mess going to be covered up. It is already clear these guys are going to do what they have always done and the President, who garnered about $10 in contributions for every vote he received is beholden to the fascist structure the US economy has taken on. Our problems would have been closer to being solved (this might not be popular, but I am going to write it anyhow) if the plane on 9/11 that hit DC had a atomic bomb. I believe the states would have had a better chance of solving this, where influence and power is dispersed.

It is amazing how many people agree with the conclusion I drew on the 17th amendment back in 1994. Seems people suddenly realize what a pile of turds we have there today.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Jono
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When you elect clowns you can be certain a circus will appear!
Oldno7
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RECALL STATE USA
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Quote:
The whole idea of this was to get the "trigger" cuts through without being forced to vote them up/down


Joejohns wins.

There will be no agreement and the trigger cuts go into effect and Obummer gets to blame everyone else. Why do you think the Dems went for the bill in the first place. This was their plan. The Repubs got suckered again. Oh and Obummer gets his tax increase in 2013 just like he wanted.

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IT'S THE SPENDING STUPID The US must become less a government of men, and more a government of LAW.
When people lose everything and have nothing left to lose they lose it -Gerald Celente

Mlshawaii
Posts: 1785
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This gets scarier by the day. I imagine that each of the 50 states not represented in this 12-member super-congress would have standing to sue the US government over the Constitutionality of it.

WHERE ARE THEY??? So far it seems like everyone is going along with it.

How the hell can 12 members of Congress decide on budget cuts (when we don't even have a budget) for the entire nation? This is insane.
Fraudster
Posts: 4181
Incept: 2011-05-10
Green
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Quote:
The US is less screwed than most of the rest of the world. But, this Super 12 is a damn politboro at best. Ovomit is going to send what the fascists want them to do and they are going to rubber stamp it. The Tea Party has been demonized to death as the cause for this mess, like not giving the Chief enough money to spend out his term was what caused this mess.

If you look at the CDS's on the Acting-Man link, you will see that the whole of Europe is ****ed. From the Periphery to the core. France looks to be going parabolic. I believe his first chart always has Greece, Portugal, Ireland and Japan on it. You might note the upward move in CDS's on Japan. The trade data today listed less than $10 billion in imports from Japan. It used to be the deficit with them was $10 billion a month 20 years ago. We could balance trade for a month with export of the toilet paper they are going to need over there.


Oh gee, I didn't realize that the US, Japan and the EU were the entirety of global GDP. I will tell you this, IMHO, the EU may be more screwed than the US, but we are more screwed than a few countries in S. America, Australia, Canada and Asian countries. Again, IMHO.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Mlshawaii
Posts: 1785
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As for the "trigger" cuts, I believed from the start that this was all a scam to kill the defense budget while leaving the FSA untouched. The trigger is that if there is no deal, then half of the $1.5 trillion in cuts comes out of defense. Well, that's $750 billion, which is almost the entire defense budget.

So the Democrats get to defund the military, and the Republicans just bend over.

Unless of course you really believe the 12 will come up with $1.5 trillion in real cuts. I believe aliens will arrive on skittle-****ting unicorns before that happens.
Icanhasbailout
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Imaginationland
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Fine. The military needs to be mostly defunded anyway, and then the thing will blow entirely on debt and entitlements and there'll be no blaming military spending for it.

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Fraudster
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Icanhasbailout, if you run the math to it's logical conclusion taking account of even KD's rather conservative estimate of a 30% decline in GDP (and I do think that is a rather LOW and conservative estimate), which takes us to about $10 trillion, and maximum extractable tax base of 20% of that, so about $2 trillion, we see that government is going to have to cut spending such that EVERY department is going to get hit HARD. Because after you back out the $500 billion in interest WE MUST PAY, you are left with ~$1.5 trillion. Given the enormous commitments the government has, I wish all pro-defense spenders good luck in maintaining current defense expenditures (which in sum total is approaching $1 trillion). BTW, for tax revenues to get back to 20% of GDP, tax rates must go up massively. So add that to the mix. Oh, and I think the economy has more like a 40-50% decline to absorb, so the tax base is going to be even smaller (leaving us with about $ trillion to spend after interest expense at current interest rates). All of this all the worse if interest rates start to increase. All areas of government are going to be a ghost shadow of their former selves. And no, this won't be good for America's geo-political standing.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Phantomace
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Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I seem to remember that the automatic cuts are Military & MediCare, right?
But, aren't the MediCare cuts on the Doctor payment side?

If so, then all that will happen is more Doctor's will drop out of MediCare system, and those that stay in will raise their prices for people that don't have MediCare so they can make up for the losses.
Seems to me the net result will be less service for MediCare recipients AND higher costs for everyone else.

Am I wrong?
(Serious question.)

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"That was a little trick I call math. Oops, now I'm not emotionally invested..." - Dilbert
The only good thing I have to say about Barney Frank is at least he's not breeding...
Fraudster
Posts: 4181
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Quote:
If so, then all that will happen is more Doctor's will drop out of MediCare system, and those that stay in will raise their prices for people that don't have MediCare so they can make up for the losses.


Yeh, good luck with that. Let's see insurance rates start increasing by an additional 20,30,40,50% and see how long that system lasts.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

Mlshawaii
Posts: 1785
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I didn't say anything about keeping the defense budget at its current levels. As Karl has pointed out a million times, everything needs to be cut. I am admittedly biased, but I'd rather have a strong military than a strong Free **** Army.

Phantom, my understanding was the enforcement mechanism would trigger $1.5 trillion in cuts....half from defense, and the other half from non-defense spending (excluding SS, Medicaid, and low income programs, which I assume means other welfare entitlements). I'm not sure where MediCare comes in. Maybe somebody else knows.
Fraudster
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You cannot have a strong military (and oversized military expenditure) with a weakened economy. It is NEVER sustainable. This is what you are missing. Overspending on the military has been a huge part of the downfall of Rome, the UK, USSR, etc. The failure to recognize historical fact makes it more likely that we repeat past mistakes. Rather than a "strong" military (an ambiguous term if ever there was one), I would rather have one that the economy can comfortably sustain without being a financial burden (as IMHO, defense spending (among others - Medicare for example) have become.

When you call for a "strong" military what you are really asking for is economic collapse, if what you want is a military as currently constituted (to function re: spending) with a depleted tax base and economy to support it. We need to have a serious conversation in this country about the level spending and how it is distributed, but people need to realign their expectations with the math and what is realistic.

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov

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