| User Info
| Ready For The Downgrade? in forum [Market-Ticker]
|
Francescoppola
Posts: 1
Incept: 2011-07-22
|
Number 4 is of course a warning to S&P not to rock the boat. If S&P downgrades, US funding costs will increase and Moody's will be forced to follow suit.
|
Evecon12
Posts: 16
Incept: 2010-08-30
Washington, DC
|
S&P's downgraded the outlook to negative as well. Does this preclude a full-on downgrade?
|
1lumpor2
Posts: 2649
Incept: 2011-05-01
Banned
|
The downgrades...if they happens will not cause rates to rise. Rising rates will cause the downgrade. All these ratings agencies are followers not leaders.
----------
-- Done
|
Psquared
Posts: 1876
Incept: 2008-10-11
SE USA
|
... and if you thought today was ugly you ain't seen nothing yet. This is the DOW's worst losing streak since 2008?
10% would be 1280 points or 11500. We are more than halfway there. 20% would be 2500+ points or roughly Dow 10300.
----------
"Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other." ~ John Adams
|
Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
State of Disbelief
|
Good. Bring it. It's coming anyway and I'd just as soon have it start now than add another 18 months of insult and rape.
----------
"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
|
Swampwoman
Posts: 366
Incept: 2009-12-06
NE Florida
Online
|
Yep. Obie is already calling for tax hikes when the ink ain't even dry yet.
----------
“A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." --Thomas Paine
|
Bearshort
Posts: 4475
Incept: 2007-09-13
NYC
|
They left off (5), or when our lenders realize the US is running a ponzi scheme and balk at buying more bonds.
----------
"How long to the point of know return?"
Enemies of the State: Bernanke, Geithner, Frank, Dodd, Greenspan, Paulson.
|
Ktrosper
Posts: 1497
Incept: 2010-04-06
ft collins co
|
1lumpor2 wrote..Rising rates will cause the downgrade. All these ratings agencies are followers not leaders. lol! Exactly.
----------
The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
|
Mari
Posts: 1012
Incept: 2010-03-05
Central MD
|
Reid is calling for tax hikes too. I'm going to e-mail him and tell him it's about darn time that they raise the tax rates for the people on the bottom so they actually PAY taxes instead of getting back more money through EIC. Wonder how he'll react to that?
I just finished watching Lou Dobbs and they were positively giddy that S&P confirmed the AAA rating was affirmed. Apparently SOMEONE didn't check out Moddy's or understand what they said. Idiots...
----------
I bleed purple and orange!
|
Irishsamurai
Posts: 1150
Incept: 2008-11-03
GA
|
Quote:
20% would be 2500+ points or roughly Dow 10300.
I think this is optimistic by a factor of 2 ... break out your DOW 10K hats because by October, the DOW will be in the 8-9K range if the H&S actually comes to fruition ... And if Ben prints (which we all know he is going to do) ... the DOW can go to 20K, but DXY will be headed for the 40-50 range by this time next year ... My investment advice: Rations. Ammo. And move south ... cause its going to be one hell of a brutal winter in northern Urban areas ...
----------
“Why is it the ship beats the waves when the waves are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose.” - Churchill
|
Eli
Posts: 7166
Incept: 2007-09-10
|
Europe is in the toilet and just about to go down. That should speed things up considerably.
Since the debt ceiling really just allows the continuation of the status quo government spending we are still absolutely screwed.
The Status quo right now is an ever loving disaster.
----------
If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
|
Crzymorse
Posts: 1182
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
|
Whoops a negative outlook and UST's rally. I'm more convinced then ever we are going Japanese route. The Japanese and Chinese have current account surpluses largely based on currency manipulation. The US is still the worlds largest manufacturing country, despite the fact everybody says we don't make anything in the country anymore. If aggregate demand drops worldwide we bear the brunt and USTs will continue to rally. I disagreed with Karl, the imaginary bond vigilante crowd isn't showing up and they would have front run Moody's and the S&P in any event. I see Bill Gross owns USTs again after a month hiatus.
Our inability to make real free market reforms to banking, education, healthcare, defense and energy is holding back the economy and the reasons for our deficit (there are no productivity improvements despite huge improvements in technology in these areas.) Tax increases are needed to increase the velocity of money and major reforms are needed.
|
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9752
Incept: 2007-06-26
los angeles
|
Moody's is a bunch of racists. No, they are terrorists. They hate America.
----------
When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
|
Stanowen
Posts: 160
Incept: 2008-10-02
|
Moody's is trying to set the building on fire. What a bunch of arsonists.
|
Mrbill
Posts: 7840
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
|
I agree with everything but the last sentence. Crzymorse wrote.. Tax increases are needed to increase the velocity of money Needed *by whom*?? |
Steelhead23
Posts: 2036
Incept: 2008-09-09
Portland OR
|
The bond market is as fickle as they come - downright contrarian. Today, the DJIA dropped 2.2%, while bond yields headed for the floor - making bond traders ecstatic. I don't play bonds but WSJ shows the 30-day bill yield went from 0.07 to 0.04, a decline of almost 43%, meaning prices went up (a similar amount?). This is clearly a flight to safety. What you are saying is that this safety is illusory and Moody's is soon going to agree. Shoot, at this point I am not sure a downgrade would stifle the appeal of Ts. Pardon my confusion - but this market is simply not rational - by a long-shot. Fear is rampant and is causing weird price swings.
----------
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
|
Obseedian
Posts: 11872
Incept: 2007-07-26
BBRY Central
|
Will we get pretty AA hats to match the DOW 5000 hats?
----------
|
Wootendw
Posts: 38
Incept: 2010-01-28
|
US government debt is unlikely to ever be downgraded by any of the major bond rating firms. These companies such as Moody's, S&P, and Fitch are beholden to the US government for their membership in the cartel that has the exclusive right to decide if particular bonds can be sold on the open market. Furthermore, Congress could easily decide to 'investigate' these firms for their role in the subprime debacle, whether or not they were to blame in whole or in part. So why have they been talking about downgrading? Most likely, they got a call from Tim Geithner asking for such talk in order to prod Congress into raising the debt ceiling. Even though there was no chance of default, the story in the MSM is that default will occur if the ceiling wasn't raised. Now that it's been raised, we're unlikely to hear of any more downgrade threats for a while - until Obama wants to raise taxes and Congress refuses.
|
Frat
Posts: 1934
Incept: 2009-07-15
NKY
|
We're screwed any way you cut it, but it's finally getting fun to watch. A few hundred more points downward will cause a lot of J6P's to go "Wait, I thought they fixed this ****?! The TV told me so!"
Then the REAL fun can commence!
----------
We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
|
Crzymorse
Posts: 1182
Incept: 2010-06-25
Maryland
|
Mrbill,
That last sentence is a hunch right now. Yes it is a redistribution of money. However, Bailouts and subsidies create a unfair playing field for many rich people. Most of them wouldn't be rich now if we didn't have programs like TARP. So they can pay a little more into the system as the middle class and their grandkids will be paying for their bailout for years to come.
Wootendw- Your most likely right on. The smart money doesn't care what they say. Moody's was a movie prop for the congressional drama play this week.
|
Little_eddie
Posts: 592
Incept: 2009-04-30
Delaware
|
Of course T-Bills went down, They are the best **** around.
That are ****, but they are the best **** in a big pile of ****!
So people are buying them.
----------
Quote:If the math says one thing and the law says something different, it will be the law that ends up changing Charles Calomiris From an article in Foreign Affairs entitled “The End Of The Euro” |
Mrbill
Posts: 7840
Incept: 2008-10-19
North Carolina
|
You didn't answer my question. Who needs to keep the velocity of money up?
My hunch is that it's everyone who is leveraged or benefits from increased leverage. That includes the government and the rich. The stock market is only for the rich (or at least the top 10%) and it lives off velocity of money.
You can end bailouts and subsidies too, without giving more money to the same people who create those distortions in the hopes they do right the next time.
Fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice...
|
Mannfm11
Posts: 3530
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
|
They downgraded the Japanese years ago and their 10 years are under 1.5%. The bond market don't look worried, yet. It is free income to those that play. The rest of us live with the tax hammer over our heads.
----------
The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
|
Future_shock
Posts: 1668
Incept: 2007-10-16
Texas
|
If we are entering a deep recession it should result in a downgrade of the US, irrespective of where yields are. They'll never be able to pay the bills for the last recession if we're entering a new one. IMO if the Dow falls much below 11500 the .gov will probably start to see significant drops in revenue.
|
