Income And Spend: Sucks
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-08-02 09:01
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Income And Spend: Sucks
 

The chain of bad data and confirmation of my beliefs continues...

Personal income increased $18.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, and disposable personal income (DPI) increased $16.3 billion, or 0.1 percent, in June, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $21.9 billion, or 0.2 percent.  In May, personal income increased $23.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, DPI increased $17.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, and PCE increased $5.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, based on revised estimates.

Revisions not so good, but we now have outright contraction in spending.

We also have a very bad change in payroll data, which may presage a real stinker in the employment report:

Private wage and salary disbursements decreased $2.2 billion in June, in contrast to an increase of $15.0 billion in May. Goods-producing industries' payrolls decreased $1.8 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.8 billion; manufacturing payrolls decreased $2.1 billion, in contrast to an increase of $4.1 billion.  Services-producing industries' payrolls decreased $0.3 billion, in contrast to an increase of $10.1 billion.  Government wage and salary disbursements decreased $0.4 billion, compared with a decrease of $0.5 billion.

This may not result in a negative print, but if it doesn't it's likely to nail hours worked and/or hourly wage, both of which are very bad.

The other income numbers are also bad - decreasing was proprietors income (self-employed people). as did rental income.  The only good news?  Government "cheese" increased, which is good if you got it, and bad for everyone else.

There's no joy here folks.....

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Otiswild
Posts: 5677
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
Inside you, the force is!
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Quote:
For 2010, downward revisions to personal interest income, to nonfarm proprietors’ income, to supplements to wages and salaries, and to personal current transfer receipts were partly offset by upward revisions to rental income of persons, to wages and salaries, and to farm proprietors’ income." In other words, the "rental income" that offset downward income revisions came exclusively from the $50-100 billion squatters' rent annually "generated" from homeowners not paying their mortgages. End result: a surge in the savings rate to 5.4% from 5.0%, the highest since February 2011, as consumers retrench across the board.


http://www.zerohedge.com/news/income-and....

More folks need to quit payin' their mortgage and 'save' it..
Docj
Posts: 1012
Incept: 2009-09-10
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Duck & Cover
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Genesis wrote..
There's no joy here folks.....


For once you seem to be sugar-coating, KD! This report is an absolute festival of suck. Wow.

Good thing they're going to run-up another $2.4T on the government credit card, eh? Because the last $5T worked so splendidly, of course.

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Eli
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The key there is the rise in gov. cheese.

The only place that is taking up the slack is coming through the gov. credit card.
The decrease in personal spending means a few more million people get on the gov. dole.

But hey it is all good.

The sheer weight of government dependance has destroyed our economy. An expansion in the debt just means more money is spent on the FSN and more and more people realize that there is no reason to work, becoming a leach is the only way to go.


But the sad reality is you cannot borrow an economy, you can however borrow your way to a bigger boat anchor.

I'm just waiting for the flash.

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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
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Jono
Posts: 110
Incept: 2011-05-25


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To the Mortgage guys out there

I need a 3rd and 4th mortgage so I can pay my 1st and 2nd plus expenses!

Hell if the governments plan work that way why not use it myself

"You gotta spend money to save money".........VP Joe "terrorist" Bitme
Etz
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Think of it as the "Friends of Barry" recovery...


Inline

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

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Swampwoman
Posts: 388
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NE Florida
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And the politicians fiddle while the economy turns to ashes.....

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“A body of men holding themselves accountable to nobody ought not to be trusted by anybody." --Thomas Paine
Lcoscare
Posts: 12
Incept: 2010-01-27

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Hi Karl,

Is your analysis per capita?

"Personal income increased $18.7 billion, or 0.1 percent"
I have a feeling this isn't adjusted for population increases, and therefore, it's even worse than it looks.
Genesis
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Correct, it's not. That's BEA's data and it's gross - no adjustment for population.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
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Supertruckertom
Posts: 252
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My anecdotal....freight has slowed.
Our hiring is finished for the year. We added about 8 drivers to replace a couple that no longer work with us and the others for increased business.
Total bills per day in Atlanta is about 800-900. We had briefly peaked past 1000 per day. In 2007 it was 1600. In the Fall of 2009 it had collapsed to 400. There is a seasonality to it though, retailers are changing from Summer to Fall product lines and let inventory sell down.
I work at a national LTL Freight company. 5th largest by revenue...
I feel that we are gaining business by pricing rather than the general economy improving. Being at a debt free privately held company may work out for now...
If layoffs come then I might barely squeak by even with a 50% drop off.

I tried explaining this recent political news to my teenagers.
They were not really listening until I told them they would be lucky to keep half of the income they earn by the time they are almost 30. If they had a job.

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What I do is fairly simple.
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It is my job to get it to them.
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