Well, it appears if you are watching the TV about now, that Boehner walked out of the debt ceiling talks after President Obama apparently sprung a $400 billion tax increase "surprise" on the discussions at the last minute.
The problem is that we were told the numbers were somewhere around 2:1 or even higher on tax cuts .vs. tax increases. History, however, says that the tax increases come immediately and the spending reductions never. With the "surprise" it was close to 1.3:1 - essentially, trying to get rid of the spending reductions by increasing taxes instead.
But let's be straight on this: Even if that deal was negotiated, it still wouldn't matter as it amounts to less than $300 billion in change to the deficit annually and is thus less than ONE FIFTH of the size it must be to close the gap.
$3 trillion over 10 years also won't prevent a downgrade, if you believe S&P. Of course if you don't believe their threat is real then none of this matters.
I, incidentally, believe it's real but not because S&P will downgrade - if they don't the market will, and that's just as bad at the end of the day if not worse.
Next week is going to be very interesting, and the "interesting" is likely to start Sunday night when the futures reopen for trading. I don't expect a big drop at the open absent something ugly out of Europe over the weekend, but clearly the pressure will ratchet up all week, since next week is pretty much "do it or don't" time.
Incidentally, while many will say that "don't" is not an option, it most-certainly is. Doing nothing would force an immediate 40% spending reduction. This would, in turn, result in a roughly 12-15% GDP contraction (and maybe as much as 17-18%.)
But despite what people are trying to BS you with in this regard, the fact remains that we're in this reality right now, whether the government is covering it up or not - and they are.
We must resolve this problem, and we're not going to be able to do it without "eating our peas." This means real entitlement reform, it means real tax reform, it means real trade reform (no, not more "free rapes" for nations with per-capita GDP 1/5th of ours), it means real medical system reform (not Obamacare) and it means real energy policy reform.
In short it means cutting the crap and stopping with the lies. It means standing up at the pulpit and telling the American people that our legislators have spent thirty years jacking them off and lying through their teeth, and this serpent-like behavior must and will end right now.
What we have been promised government can't do. We therefore have to face the facts. Time has run out to screw around and we either do the right thing or we're going to have choices made for us, instead of doing what we should - having an open and up-front discussion and debate with the American people on exactly what services government is to provide and funding each and every one of those services with current tax revenue, dollar for dollar.
Everyone says that "well you can't do all that at once!" But the "all at once" has come about because of the intentional and outrageous acts of our so-called "elected officials." Willful malfeasance - that is, creating your own emergencies - does not make for an excuse. It just means you're an ass and then to play the histrionic card on top of it turns "ass" into "jackass."
It's time to shut up and act in a responsible fashion. If Washington can't or won't, then our choices will be made for us by the market - whether we like it or not.
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Not much "real" coming out of any of their mouths right now. Its all just showmanship and oneupmanship - though I thought Jboner was relatively restrained and did not retaliate. Oboner seems desperate - hoping that the public will put pressure on Congress. We'll see how that plays out over the weekend.
One thing: Obama said he would make the notes of their meetings available to refute the argument that he "moved the goalposts." I suspect he will be pressed to do just that - though I am sure what we see will be redacted in some way. But now that he has made the offer the press needs to take him up on it because it will be tough for him to say no now.
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"Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other." ~ John Adams
I'm listening to the re-run and he just gave an admission that DC and Wall St. collude to prop up the market, in response to a question from a reporter.
We are only a couple years out from a repeat of this historic speach on our current path. This was the second default of American debt last century. We will default again.
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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!
Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
I hope they don't come to an agreement and there is an immediate 40% drop in Gov't spending. I want a balanced budget and I don't give a damn what or who they have to cut in order to get it. However, I don't agree with raising taxes one damned dime because the vampire already sucks far too much of our blood as it is. Glenn Reynolds was right when he said we now have the worst political class in the nation's history. Any normal adult who exercises competent control of his or her own financial affairs clearly sees that the USG problem is too much spending. Why in Hell can't the 535 plus 9 plus Won see it as well?
There are about 40 members of Congress whose hand I'd be willing to shake. Most of the rest I'd be damned glad to have the opportunity to curse out for being thieving socialist bastards destroying America. Sometimes I wonder if they have even the slightest idea how badly most productive Americans hate the lot of them?
Creating your own emergencies indeed... ala Naomi Wolfe's Shock Doctrine. We'll end up pushing through more stupidity due to the emergency/urgency/crisis created by the previous stupidity.
It's all about capturing OR EVEN CREATING money flows to skim off the churn, then increasing the churn and skim whenever possible.
We've seen this "churn capture" in spades in the banking/financial/insurance industry. In creating that churn - to have something to skim - the pigmen diverted a huge chunk of our society's time, energy, wealth to those flows. The damage from decades of perverting economic activity dwarfs the value they managed to skim. In 3 or so decades, we built stuff - a whole world really - that we didn't need and will have to tear down & rebuild anyway, in terms of infrastructure and so on. We got educations that aren't needed, we learned all kinds of lesons that we'll have to unlearn.
It's as if we went hiking and got sent down the wrong trail by a moved sign. Now we're out of food and have to hike all the way back to the fork in the trail before we expend even more time and energy travelling where we needed to go all along.
But about the captured churn. We needn't think it is only hppening in the private sector. With just a little investigation, I am confident a staggering amount of the government spending is also created, captured churn, benefiting similarly powerful, increasingly rich 3rd parties. The food stamp cards create churn for JP Morgan, right? I bet it's all like that. Scratch any of the "entitlements" and I bet you'll see captured churn underneath.
That's why we're getting no bang for our buck - you're not supposed to! It's jut a money flow for skimming, what it involves - welfare, military, mortgages, melamine-laced powdered milk, whatever... immaterial
Sadly, if we just handed the pigmen their bonuses directly, just gave them the money, we'd benefit by orders of magnitude to the lost money - if they agreed to retireand stop driving our government and society off a cliff into totally wasteful use of our time, effort, and wealth.
I'm waiting for "the priority list" for August 3rd. When that is released, we'll see a deal in a few days. And might I add, it will be a bad deal. Promises and fluff.
Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2010-04-06
ft collins co
KD wrote..
It means standing up at the pulpit and telling the American people that our legislators have spent thirty years jacking them off and lying through their teeth, and this serpent-like behavior must and will end right now.
What we have been promised government can't do.
You're asking these statists to renounce their religion. They (R-statists and D-statists) believe to their core that big-government is the answer and that it can work if only we do things their way, if only they were given enough control for long enough this big-spending, big-government thing would work.
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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
Infidel
Posts: 5463
Incept: 2007-08-27
between here and there
"Sadly, if we just handed the pigmen their bonuses directly, just gave them the money, we'd benefit by orders of magnitude to the lost money - if they agreed to retireand stop driving our government and society off a cliff into totally wasteful use of our time, effort, and wealth"
This^.............Such a sorry state of affairs but true
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"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.
Just give him a cut of half last years deficit. So you give him a raise of a trillion in the ceiling good thru July 1 next year. Tell him to shut the **** up, sharpen his pencil and bring you a budget to vote up or down on in two weeks.
This ain't rocket science. He's got no choice but to accept what is offered. What else can he do? Throw another tantrum?
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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
It isn't about statism or big government nor big spending.
It's about capture-divert-churn-skim.
(Like some old ridiculous western, the bad guys want a few pitchers of water. So they're building a dam at the river that will bring it right past the window of their club. But the entire town is busy either building it (and tearing down everything else for dam building materials) or they're busy fighting the people doing the building and the water flow from the dam is going to wash away the town anyway... not to mention kill the fish and leave the irrigated cropland to dry out and die...)
Bert, did you catch the part about the import tax of 10% until the trade balance was restored - it was at the end.
It is clear to me that what we are facing now is the same as what we faced then - deficit spending. Nixon kicked the can hard, and every president since Nixon has found a way to kick it a little further.
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"Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other." ~ John Adams
Psquared, Bretton Woods in 1944 fixed the gold price of the US dollar at $35.20. But the US kept running and funding the deficit with printed dollars. Now note the inflation from inception.
Start of the gold pool in 1961 to suppress gold prices. What cost $35 in 1944 would cost $59.54 in 1961. End of the Gold pool when France bailed. What cost $35 in 1944 would cost $69.24 in 1968. Nixon's speech in the video. What cost $35 in 1944 would cost $80.61 in 1971.
Keeping the dollar fixed did not work with inflation. It also hurt jobs by keeping the dollar artificially high. When the US defaulted, it dropped the value of the dollar and with the import taxes it kicked inflation off into high gear. This lead to price controls and wage freezes.
If you are into body language, check the rapid eye blink in the early part of the video and the hand to the nose later on. Our money system is based on faith and credit and when faith is lost so is credit. Our current system will only last as long as faith remains.
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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!
Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Obama can do a lot more than is commonly thought if backed into a corner: DO NOT Forget the 'Presidential Emergency Powers' that Bush originally invoked after 9/11 and which Obama has extended until Sept. 2011.
The National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. 1601-1651) is a United States federal law passed in 1976 to stop open-ended states of national emergency and formalize the power of Congress to provide certain checks and balances on the emergency powers of the President. The act sets a limit of two years on states of national emergency. It also imposes certain "procedural formalities" on the President when invoking such powers.
The perceived need for the law arose from the scope and number of laws granting special powers to the executive in times of national emergency (or public danger).
At least two constitutional rights are subject to revocation during a state of emergency:
* The right of habeas corpus, under Article 1, Section 9; * The right to a grand jury for members of the National Guard when in actual service, under Fifth Amendment.
In addition, many provisions of statutory law are contingent on a state of national emergency, as many as 500 by one count.[1]
It was due in part to concern that a declaration of "emergency" for one purpose should not invoke every possible executive emergency power that Congress in 1976 passed the National Emergencies Act. Among other provisions, this act requires the President to declare formally a national emergency and to specify the statutory authorities to be used under such a declaration.
There were 32 declared national emergencies between 1976 and 2001. [2] Most of these were for the purpose of restricting trade with certain foreign entities under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) (50 U.S.C. 1701-1707).
State of National Emergency in effect since September 2001
The United States has been in a state of national emergency continuously since September 14, 2001, when the Bush administration invoked it premised on the September 11 attacks. In September 2010, President Barack Obama informed Congress that the State of National Emergency in effect since September 14, 2001, will be extended another year.[1] [2] The National Emergencies Act grants various powers to the president during times of emergency,[3] and was intended to prevent a president from declaring a state of emergency of indefinite duration.[4]
www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/98-505.pdf
Quote:
National Emergency Powers Federal law provides a variety of powers for the President to use in response to crisis, exigency, or emergency circumstances threatening the nation. Moreover, they are not limited to military or war situations. Some of these authorities, deriving from the Constitution or statutory law, are continuously available to the President with little or no qualification. Others — statutory delegations from Congress — exist on a stand-by basis and remain dormant until the President formally declares a national emergency. These delegations or grants of power authorize the President to meet the problems of governing effectively in times of crisis. Under the powers delegated by such statutes, the President may seize property, organize and control the means of production, seize commodities, assign military forces abroad, institute martial law, seize and control all transportation and communication, regulate the operation of private enterprise, restrict travel, and, in a variety of ways, control the lives of United States citizens. Furthermore, Congress may modify, rescind, or render dormant such delegated emergency authority.
Presidential Emergency Powers« I. Powers over Persons:
A. Confine any individual deemed a threat to national security;
B. Restrict travel to or from U. S.;
C. Restrict access to U.S. citizenship;
D. Restrict movement of individuals within and over the U.S.;
E. Require certain individuals to register with the government
F. Restrict freedom of association;
1. prevent individuals deemed a threat to national security from certain employment opportunities;
2. remove federal employees deemed threat to national security;
G. Suspend Habeas Corpus;
H. Declare martial law;
I. assign armed forces "to assist in military mattes in any foreign country." II. Powers over the Control and Regulation of Property:
A. Order the stockpiling of certain strategic materials;
B. Impose restrictions on the export of U.S. goods;
C. Authorized to allocate materials in ways he thinks necessary in order to promote the national defense;
D. can require industries to give priority to government contracts and seize by any means necessary those industries that fail to comply;
E. Fix wages and prices. III. Powers over Communication:
A. In carrying out his reporting obligations to Congress, the president may withhold information he deems damaging to the national security;
B. If he concludes that the nation is under threat of attack, he may refrain from publishing his regulations in the Federal Register;
C. During war or threat of war he may establish procedures for censoring mail, cable, radio, or other means of communication between the U.S. and any foreign country;
D. Can require those engaging in propaganda activities on behalf of foreign governments to register with the U.S. government. IV. Termination of Existing National Emergencies:
A. Terminates two years from the date of enactment of this act emergency powers and authorities possessed by the president or any other federal officer or executive agency that were still in effect as a result of previously declared emergencies. V. Declaration and Termination of Future National Emergencies:
A. All future national emergencies declared by the president can be terminated by Congress through a concurrent resolution« « or by presidential proclamation
B. Not later than six months after an emergency has been declared, and not later than the end of each six-mont period thereafter, Congress shall be required to consider whether the emergency shall be terminated;
C. If the president has declared a national emergency, and if it has not been terminated at the end of one year unless the president informs Congress that it is sill in effect. VI. Procedures Relating to the Use of Emergency Powers:
A. Then the president declares a national emergency, he must specify to Congress the provisions of the law under which he will act;
B. The president and all federal agencies shall keep and report to Congress a record of all rules and regulations issued during the emergency. The same applies to all expenditures for emergency actions.
Congress already handed the President what He needs to over-rule them on the Debt Ceiling.
IF push comes to shove Obama can do exactly as He pleases with regards to a great many issues under the exigencies of this Wholly Manufactured Emergency.
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
according to Jeb Bush (on Hannity now) he said balancing the gov't budget is not like balancing your own budget at the kitchen table— and that they are not talking about cutting anything—just slowing the growth of gov't against GDP
= inflate our way out
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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Bagbalm
Posts: 4260
Incept: 2009-03-19
Just North of Detroit
Obama can not impose a budget by executive decree - unless he declares a state of emergency and assumes emergency powers. It's always there - waiting to be used. Hard to believe somebody won't use it sometime.
Throxx posted all that while I was typing = same thought.
Halt entitlements for one month...then in four months, repeat... then in three months, then in 2 months AND if you think it SHOULD be paid, anyone wanting to pay for said entitlements is free to write a personal check. I'm not interested.
OBAMA HAS THE 9/11 'WAR ON TERROR' EMERGENCY POWERS. -HE HAS THEM RIGHT NOW. CONGRESS ACCEPTED THE EXTENSION OF THE EMERGENCY POWERS UNTIL SEPT. 2011.
OBAMA 'CAN DECLARE MARTIAL LAW'. OBAMA 'CAN REMOVE PEOPLE FROM GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT. OBAMA 'CAN FIX WAGES AND PRICES'. OBAMA 'CAN EXPROPRIATE PROPERTY'. OBAMA 'CAN SUSPEND HABEAS CORPUS'.
OBAMA CAN DO JUST ABOUT WHATEVER HE ****ING WANTS.
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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell