Europe Is *NOT* "Safe"
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-07-18 09:16
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Europe Is *NOT* "Safe"
 

For anyone who is interested in what happens when you refuse to deal with reality and instead lie over and over when it comes to debt levels, you need to look at what the morning looks like for European debt this morning

Greece 2 year 34.5% $66
Portugal 2 year 21.2% $78.50
Ireland 2 year 23.3% $77.80
Italy 2 year 4.65% $95.66 *
Spain 2 year 4.55% $96.5 *

Italy and Spain are now moving, and the others are basically a lost cause.  20+% 2 year rates are not interest rates, they're implied recovery rates.

The problem with what we have going on right now in the United States is that this is not just about raising the debt ceiling.  S&P has made clear that if they do not see $4 trillion in credible 10 year debt reduction (not the "back-loaded" garbage that has been put forward time and time again, including by the CBO, but has proved time and time again to be lies) they will downgrade the United States.

Egan-Jones did downgrade the United States this morning (will be Tickered separately when the video shows up on CNBC's web site) - and in my opinion, correctly.

The reason is simple: There is no credibility within Congress on these issues at the present time, nor any reason to believe that problem will be addressed.  Instead, Congress and The Administration - both sides of the aisle - will play politics and lie.

The problem is that while you can lie to people, you can't lie to mathematics, and the inevitable and factually-known consequences from a standpoint of mathematical relationships will assert themselves unless your behavior changes.

Either Congress changes their behavior - now - or we're next.

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User Info Europe Is *NOT* "Safe" in forum [Market-Ticker]
Fraudster
Posts: 4173
Incept: 2011-05-10
Silver
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Spain has been an issue for some time, but Italy just kind of exploded onto the scene. Now they are attracting a higher interest rate (2-year) than Spain? What happened to, "the crisis will pass over Italy"?

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"Let China sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world." - Napoleon Bonaparte

"Circulation ceases first at the outer edges [Europe and Japan]. It will take a while yet for the decay to reach the heart [America]." - Foundation & Empire by Isaac Asimov
Bertdilbert
Posts: 2655
Incept: 2008-12-22
Gold
CA
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Karl, I hope in your new book, aside from the fixes you have mentioned on the forum, that you cover the fixes necessary to government. We have operated a long time under our current system, but now we must own up to the fact that congress is bought and paid for and are incapable of fixing our current state of affairs. The long term viability of our nation is far less important than winning the next term in office. If we cannot move beyond this we are done as a nation.

I hope we can move more along this path in future tickers as to how we fix congress along with the rest of the regular tickers. Perhaps a chapter in "Leverage" can be devoted to this subject. It is time we address this as a nation.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.

Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Anyone who thinks $4T (the bare minimum necessary to avoid immediate implosion) of real, honest-to-goodness spending reductions are going to pass the House, much less the Senate (who have not even proposed a budget in over 2-years) and then not be vetoed by The Teleprompter is a delusional optimist.

Time to "embrace the suck", folks. It's coming.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Twainfan
Posts: 147
Incept: 2010-12-01

Minnesota
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Agreed Doc. Nothing of significance will get passed by either house or the teleprompter. They don't have the guts to face reality.
Erkme73
Posts: 85
Incept: 2010-10-23

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Karl, you state:

Quote:
S&P has made clear that if they do not see $4 trillion in credible 10 year debt reduction (not the "back-loaded" garbage that has been put forward time and time again, including by the CBO, but has proved time and time again to be lies) they will downgrade the United States.


But just this morning, the talking heads say that Moodys is recommending congress simply do away with the debt ceiling altogether.

Personally, I'd think anything other than a refusal to raise the ceiling ought to be the shot heard round the world - making clear that the US simply cannot own up to it's problems - and should therefore result in the downgrade. Yet, all the commentators on TV say that if we don't at least raise it, they'll 'immediately' downgrade or credit.

Is it any wonder why the masses are so mislead and confused?

Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Moody's must be auditioning for the coveted role of "Bankster's favorite court jester".

Oh, minor annoyance today - I have some 37-euros left-over from my last trip to the EU. I was holding-on to them figuring I'd be back over there in September, but wanted instead to cash them today as they're likely-as-not going to be worthless by then. Used to be a $3 feel to do that at my bank (RBS Citizens Bank) - today I was informed that as of 1 July the charge is $15!!

I decided to hold on to them in hopes they'll still be worth something in mid-September.

**** banks. Seriously. They suck. Every last ****ing one of them.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Anti
Posts: 4281
Incept: 2007-10-09
Silver
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When the Parthenon and Mount Rushmore are both on the market at the same time, neither will garner anything more than distress pricing. But, hey, better taxpayers get bad prices than banks, that would be truly disastrous. </Sarc>

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Peteb
Posts: 128
Incept: 2010-11-16

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Well, we're next.

The easiest way out for Congress is to raise the debt limit, promote inflation, and blame somebody else when it blows up.

Were turning Spirelandgreegal, turning Spirelandgreegal, I really think so... (Spain, Italy, Ireland, Greece, Portugal)

Dmj625
Posts: 434
Incept: 2010-03-01
Green
New Orleans, LA
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"Docj" wrote..
...Used to be a $3 feel to do that at my bank...


Talk about personal service...

Dmj625

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"The more that laws and regulations are given prominence, the more thieves and robbers there will be."
-Lao-tzu

Reason: Edit
Azusgm
Posts: 2390
Incept: 2010-12-02
Green
East Texas
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In the budget votes, the House cut the budgeted amount for military musical bands from $325 million to $200 million. $200 million?! Is that because they are still working on the budget for the fiscal year that is nearly gone and they need $200 for what has already been spent or contracted? These guys won't even move in on the low-hanging fruit. Do they have their bugout bags packed?

BTW, may I have one mild chest thump please? This is from 2009.

http://investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=1....
Myopia
Posts: 83
Incept: 2010-09-16
Green
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Sorry but what does "Implied recovery rates" mean?
Janedeaux
Posts: 287
Incept: 2009-09-16
Green
Mississippi
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Quote:
Either Congress changes their behavior - now - or we're next.


Ain't gonna happen. They will lie and kick the can until they can't or until they lose reelection.

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A nation of sheep breeds a government of wolves.-anon


Genesis
Posts: 130678
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Myopia: Nobody pays those rates on issue - the price is the implied recovery on a default. Default doesn't mean you get zero, it just means you get less.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Heh - nice catch Dmj625. I'll leave it there, we can all use a laugh today, they're going to be hard to come by soon. Very soon.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Freedomlover
Posts: 27
Incept: 2009-05-20

UK
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"Moody's must be auditioning for the coveted role of "Bankster's favorite court jester"."

More like "Bankster's favorite cock jerker".


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"I do not suffer from Insanity, I enjoy every minute of it".
Myopia
Posts: 83
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Ah ok Thanks.
Smacktle
Posts: 1358
Incept: 2009-01-20
Green
Texas
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This whole thing looks like the proverbial snowball rolling down the hill.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Karen1p
Posts: 155
Incept: 2010-10-26
Green
Reformed Liberal - turned gun owner, Ticker Gal
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This debt discussion goes way over my head regarding economics.....but I DO understand that Gen is saying that the spending has to be curtailed by a massive amount. Problem with that is then we will all understand the current situation will make the Great Depression look like the good times.
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