More Federal Deficit Nonsense: FAIL
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-07-05 10:39
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
More Federal Deficit Nonsense: FAIL
 

All aboard the FAILboat:

The $1 trillion in cuts would probably be spread out over the next decade or so, meaning roughly $100 billion less in federal spending each year, although the savings might be larger in later years.

As opposed to this:

Hmmm..... $100 billion .vs. $1.6 trillion.  Yeah, that's gonna make a big difference.

NOT.

But already, $1 trillion in cuts is entering uncharted territory. The cuts would be some of the biggest in history.

Doesn't that define the problem?

First, we build a Ponzi in the tech industry.  Companies with no profit (and no reasonable expectation of ever having one) sell for hundreds of dollars a share, get 100% (or more) first-day price ramps and then, when the bubble bursts, crashes.

Not content to accept that we built a Ponzi Bubble in tech during a Democrat Presidency, and that the fluff had to come out of the economy, we do it again under a Republican one, this time in houses.  This culminates in giving people $500,000 loans with no income, no job and no assets, creating price ramps of 100% or more in significant parts of the economy.  At the same time we accelerate the offshoring of our job base to an insane degree, decimating the tax base.

That blows up and now we're left with the need to accept a thirty percent short-term contraction in the economy.  Our tax base dwindled severely during these years, with again huge parts of labor being either offshored or shifted toward illegal immigrants.  This latter bubble once again pumped up stock prices to ridiculous levels as the so-called "earnings" were gained by gaming the means of production.

Allowing that correction was unacceptable and we've now done it again, but this time it's much more tenuous, as only stock and similar prices have skyrocketed.  Have we actually blown a "new bubble"?  Well, no - we've borrowed and spent ~12% of GDP for three years running in the government, and that cannot continue.

But thus far, the so-called "proposals" to take care of this problem are limp-wristed and dishonest scams.  Representatives and Senators on both sides of the aisle know full well that should they actually address these structural imbalances and stop spending more than the government takes in that the full force of the economic adjustment that should have occurred in 2007 and 2008 will immediately re-assert itself.

The problem with not correcting the imbalances is that the longer they go on the worse the damage is, just as we went from a ~10% of GDP contraction in 2000 to where we are now today - ~20-30%.

If we keep it up the consequence, when the wall is hit, will be collapse.

It is time to be adults folks.

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User Info More Federal Deficit Nonsense: FAIL in forum [Market-Ticker]
Icanhasbailout
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Imaginationland
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In a nation of people who hold no higher common aspiration than personal advancement, that a majority would "be the adult" in the face of the spigot of lobbying dollars and patronage embezzlement that is otherwise made freely available - I just don't see how it happens voluntarily.

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Drench
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Green
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I'm 31 with flat feet and thinking I might be drafted when the **** really hits.
Rjazz117
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I'm afraid that most of the adults checked out decades ago.

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“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
Flappingeagle
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When is $100 billion chump change? When its compared to $1,600 billion.

At the rate mentioned above, we'd only be going broke 93.75% as fast as if we'd done nothing. At that rate I'd be happier to go broke at 100% speed and not have to listen to the lying bastards from both parties who act like they are doing something meaningful.

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Icarus
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It would seem logical that a balanced budget would be a good thing, at least for productive, tax-paying, law-abiding citizens, right?
Well, maybe not......
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43635698/ns/....
Quote:
Obama administration officials are offering to cut tens of billions of dollars from Medicare and Medicaid in negotiations to reduce the federal budget deficit, but the depth of the cuts depends on whether Republicans are willing to accept any increases in tax revenues....
If Congress and the president now make additional cuts, hospitals say, they will close some services and increase charges to patients with private insurance.

In other words, to cut Medicare/Medicaid, there will be a deal by both parties to increase taxes. Then hospitals and other health providers will make up the losses by increasing charges to those with private health insurance. More cost-shifting.

This cost-cutting in Medicare/Medicaid will fall mainly on hospitals and nursing homes.
Quote:
Hospital executives from around the country plan to visit Capitol Hill next week to deliver this message: “Cutting Medicare and Medicaid payments to hospitals will hurt the ones we love, especially the most vulnerable — children, seniors, the poor and disabled.”

Mr. Minnix, the lobbyist for nonprofit nursing homes, said: “The issue is not money. The issue is the effects on people, vulnerable people.”

A lobbyist says the issue isn't money.
smiley
Rjazz117
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Of course the issue isn't money...right up until it is...which would be 16 seconds after that quote took place.

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“To compel a man to subsidize with his taxes the propagation of ideas which he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical.” Thomas Jefferson
Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Icarus - nice insight there. It's either that or maybe those big bad hospitals and rich doctors don't need so much money. Funny thing is if they'd bring down the cost of college and medical school I could agree that they're making too damn much money. But when I do loans for young doctors and routinely see $250K in student loan debt I don't begrudge them their $250K salaries one bit. We've got so many problems I don't see a way to solve them other than just hit the wall.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Widgeon
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Region formerly known as the United States
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They will not (be able to) stop ... prepare for the consequences.

Docj
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Duck & Cover
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I work in a really crappy neighborhood in Providence RI (there are so many to chose from I won't specify which just to keep the mystery going). Down the block from my office is a little strip shopping area with, among other things, a laundromat, a 7-11 and a take-out Chinese Food place that's pretty decent.

So noticing that the hooker and drug-dealer traffic is pretty light today (probably the hot/humid weather, you know) I head down to order some Fried Dumplings from the Chinese place and grab an Arizona Tea from the 7-11. The 7-11 was mobbed - and every single person in front and behind me had in their hands as their means of payment, a little card of gold-colored plastic - each identical except for the number and name - with "RHODE ISLAND" across the top in nice, large, bold letters that told me I was not only paying for my iced tea but for every freaking thing else in that check-out line this fine hot, humid afternoon.

And because I read this ticker before going out to lunch I thought to myself while waiting to pay with FRNs, "Enjoy those slurpies now while you can, members of the FSA - because pretty soon that $1.25 frozen 'beverage' is going to cost a 5-cents - but you're actually going to have to earn that nickle in order to pay for it."

Once that day arrives I expect to be working out of my home (be it at this job or some other - I'll always be doing something) and avoiding what will almost certainly become a free-fire zone once the FSA starts feeling the first real pangs of hunger in their lives.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Arw
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I've said it over and over...you can not cut the cost of the beurocracy without cutting its scope/responsibility. Politicians will simply nibble at the edges until this is done. The bitch of it all is beurocracies grow organically and continuously. There is simply no way to effectively limit the slow and steady march of the feds over the long term without the repeal of Amendment by which they granted themselves power. No matter any other law. Current restrictions have done nothing, for example, in preventing the EPA, FDA, FTC, DoE, etc. from sticking their nose in where it was never authorized to do so.
Seektruth
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I don't expect any adult behavior. I gave that up. Now I'm just trying to enjoy life while I can before everything goes to **** and life sucks from there on out.
Lordhumongous
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USA
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I no longer dread the big reset. The howls of righteous indigent-nation coming from the Free **** Army when that day arrives will be music to my ears.

It will be joyous.
Banditfist
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Huntsville, Alabama
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What one Congress does can be undone by another. $1 Trillion over 10 years = doing exactly nothing.

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"Are you sure you can't remember?"
"I'm sure I can't remember" ~ Ben Bernake 25 Jun 2009

Steelhead23
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I think Widgeon is right. We have seen that when elected officials make fiscal policy they tend to make un-conservative decisions. Either they reduce revenues to favor their wealthy benefactors, or they spend too much pandering to voters. Pick yer' poison. But if we allow an "independent" agency to make fiscal policy - like the Fed, we find that their decisions favor the industry they are erstwhile charged with regulating. Until and unless the electorate (voters, citizens) figure this out and vote for truly fiscally conservative politicians, the only changes we are likely to see are the mannequins in the window. To be a tad less obtuse - the end result is going to be the demise of the U.S. Dollar. It is happening now and will get worse. Prepare accordingly.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Verredesoleil
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San Francisco
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Y'all make things so complicated ... It's like the old joke goes: You momma (gov)is so poor that when she was kicking the can down the street and I asked what she was doing she said moving.
Nashvillian
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We know any "cuts" enacted will be less than promised, occur in the out years where future admins can derail, and are only decisions to not spend money that never was. You have to cut over $15 Trillion through the next ten years to get to where spending of actual revenue is curbed. Until those trillions are cut, politicians are only reducing the amount of debt we'll take on.

I just decided not to buy a yacht for one million dollars. Even though I don't have the money, according to politicians I just saved my family one million bucks!

So now it'll be easier to convince the wife to go on that $25,000 mega vacation, even though we don't have the money, because I'll proudly inform her that it will be paid for out of the million bucks saved by not buying the yacht!

Most here don't agree, but the solution to getting the American people to go with spending cuts is to ballance the budget through higher taxes. Double them. Triple them. Still won't cover expendatures the people demand. People will never know how much the government they support and advocate ACTUALLY costs as long as 1) much of the cost of government is borrowed and 2) financial schemes exist to allow that borrowing to go on forever.

And to collect $4 Trillion in taxes each year will require the half who pay little or nothing to start contributing their share, which will make them scream bloody murder. The entire scheme called the progressive tax code has so far succeeded in keeping the cost of government off the shoulders of the majority of voters, so they can vote for freebies that somebody else will pay for (they care not who). The single biggest mechanism for deficit is the transfer of wealth to pay for programs that the actual beneficiaries of those programs aren't asked to pay.


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Each gun invited into a school for protection carries a risk of an unintended death. For any one weapon the risk may be inconsequential. Before deciding to place 500,000+ guns in 130,000 schools, the risk must be calculated.
Tesla
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Quote:
the solution to getting the American people to go with spending cuts is to ballance the budget through higher taxes. Double them. Triple them. Still won't cover expendatures the people demand. People will never know how much the government they support and advocate ACTUALLY costs as long as 1) much of the cost of government is borrowed and 2) financial schemes exist to allow that borrowing to go on forever.


**** no. You exemplify the problem with governments - you want to force people to pay taxes at the point of a gun...but I am not demanding freebies at the point of a gun, am I ?

What part of "just say no to the Free **** Army" do you not get ?

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Smacktle
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What is it with these people that want more taxes? Can I get a WTF?!

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Mannfm11
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Online
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The housing bubble was well under way in 2000. People just hadn't caught onto the trend yet.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Steelhead23
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Portland OR
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Smacktle, What precisely is the difference between paying for government with taxes and paying for government through borrowing? I suspect that almost everyone on this blog agrees that gov't overspends. Believing the gov't would spend less if it had less revenue is the functional equivalent of leaving your false teeth under your pillow in hopes of getting rich from the tooth fairy. Please be aware that as the government continues to borrow, you ARE being taxed more - in the form of a declining dollar. Also, as the dollar declines, so does the desire to hold dollar-denominated securities. Eventually the debasement will have a severe economic effect, including the potential for the dollar to lose its reserve currency status. Bondzilla may be a tad slow to respond, but he ain't dead. Sorry, there truly is no free lunch. And oh yeah, there are more voters in the FSA than the ticker forum. This is asymmetrical warfare and we are not on the stronger side.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Nashvillian
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Green
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"What part of "just say no to the Free **** Army" do you not get ?"

You must TAX the Free **** Army. What part of paying your way don't you get?

The majority of Americans are not yet convinced spending cuts need to be drastic, like a trillion $ per year. That's because A) they don't write a check to the government to pay for the portion we finance and B) most are afraid cuts will affect them far more than new taxes will (they are members of the FSA, even if only a little bit).

Whichever politician wants to cut spending by even a measely $100 Billion annually, IMMEDIATELY (not five years out), will be demagogued as wanting to impose "draconinan cuts". Until people feel the pain of actually paying for those programs, there will never be any appreciation for the value in cutting spending.

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Each gun invited into a school for protection carries a risk of an unintended death. For any one weapon the risk may be inconsequential. Before deciding to place 500,000+ guns in 130,000 schools, the risk must be calculated.
12bolt
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Blueridge
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Quote:
Until people feel the pain of actually paying for those programs, there will never be any appreciation for the value in cutting spending.


+1
R2judge
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Green
Burbank CA
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Karl: "That blows up and now we're left with the need to accept a thirty percent short-term contraction in the economy."

Ah, but the politicians on both sides of the aisle are talking growth, not contraction. We need pro growth policies, the republicans chortle. No talk of a need for a 30% GDP contraction. Obama talks about how employers must step up and hire people, to not let growth stall- no talk of a need for a 30% GDP contraction.



R2judge
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Burbank CA
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The deficit nonsense is not a fail, it is a sham and a fraud. Run the deficit up to 1.6 trillion, then cut 100 billion- look we cut the deficit from 600 billion under Bush to 1.5 trillion under Obama. The deficit has been expanded, no matter how much they pretend to cut it.
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