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| Oh, Wenzel Wants To Come Out And Play? in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
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Publius
Posts: 853
Incept: 2009-03-08
Greenville, SC.
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Yep, typical. Accuse you of not understanding Fed operations and then display his own lack of understanding that Fed "profit" goes right back to Treasury.
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Djsnola
Posts: 197
Incept: 2009-03-16
New Orleans
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Do these people stop and think? He just destroyed any credibility he had there! Sometimes the internet is a persons worst friend!
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Marketman1012
Posts: 61
Incept: 2009-04-25
NY
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Karl fantastic tickers.
I was a huge RP supporter and appreciate you bringing this out. He is clueless on monetary policy.
I give him credit for pointing out that there is a serious problem, but he thinks its lack of gold/inflation when as you mention it is the credit aggregates.
Still he is by far the best out there because you will never get the full perfect candidate and trying to usually promotes tyranny, with him at least you get your bill of rights back...I really hope people supporting him start to pressure him on the monetary issue so he stops the gold nonsense and even worse, this raw inflation nonsense.
The conspiracy theorist in me thinks perhaps he intentionally calls for pure inflation because it would make him look smarter if that were to happen because what he said is the TRUE path to hyperinflation, and he has been predicting that for years now.
As always the key is to keep the magnifying glass on them all...as this site always has and always does.
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Publius
Posts: 853
Incept: 2009-03-08
Greenville, SC.
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I just looked it up. The Fed remitted $76B ($75.845B) in FY2010, and has remitted $64.896B to date in FY'11.
And besides cancelling out the interest on the Ts the Fed owns, Treasury is also getting the benefit of the interest on ~$1T of MBSes the Fed owes, cancelling out even more interest payments on debt held by the public.
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Themortgagedude
Posts: 8849
Incept: 2007-12-17
saint louis
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mrsmortgage makes a damn fine margarita. I might have another. Get yourself a frosty libation and enjoy the rest of your weekend.
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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
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Iou
Posts: 1025
Incept: 2009-03-16
The Twilight Zone
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I love a good old 
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"When plunder becomes a way of life for a group of men living together in society, they create for themselves, in the course of time, a legal system that authorizes it and a moral code that glorifies it."- Frédéric Bastiat
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Dirtyshirt
Posts: 873
Incept: 2009-07-31
39°56'2.28"N / 122° 5'26.54"W
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As an ardent supporter of RP I've been very troubled all day. Thank you for going this extra step so that I could understand better.
I've been trying my hardest to avoid turning into a ultra cynical, crusty old man.
Since there's absolutely no one worth my support and vote. And, "tin" is the new reality. I suppose it's time to flip the flag upside down and flick buggars at the neighbors.
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Clintb350
Posts: 1453
Incept: 2008-01-19
Southern AZ
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Quote:and yet still be immediately available for the banks to withdraw and spend. And since there would be absolutely no obligation to ever return those funds (say, via taxation to retire the $1.6 trillion in treasuries that no longer exists!) this would be an immediate and permanent increase in the monetary base. How does taxation to repay the defaulted bonds stop the banks from using the reserves elsewhere? The banks don't pay the taxes. If they can't lend the reserves to make a profit because there are no willing and qualified borrowers, why wouldn't they make some sort of investment and try to beat the paltry Fed interest rate now?
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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OK here's the part I don't get: Quote:Yep. Emitting currency (digital dollars) in exchange for a bond is a loan. Doing so with nothing in exchange is raw printing of money. When the loan is being made by simply having your other hand (the Fed) conjure the money from nowhere, how is that functionally any different from simple raw printing?
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Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Because when the loan matures you have to pay the money back!
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Bertdilbert
Posts: 2658
Incept: 2008-12-22
CA
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I used to say years ago: Good Internet posters are like dogs.. They sniff each others posts before they raise their leg to take a pee. Failure to be a good post sniffer normally ends up with an electrical shock when your pee hits the fire hydrant.
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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!
Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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Quote:Because when the loan matures you have to pay the money back! But doesn't that just cycle money between the hands of the same beast? When Treasury pays off the loans that Fed holds, Fed feeds those "profits" right back to Treasury, replenishing the money spent to pay them off. Voila, loan paid back and it costs Treasury nothing. What am I missing here?
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Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Ron Paul "proposed" simply emitting raw currency - that is, blatant and unconditional devaluation.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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No argument there, I'm just trying to figure out how exactly the two-hand shuffle between the Fed and Treasury is any different in net outcome. Isn't the Fed owning Ts effectively a situation where the government itself is buying its own debt?
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Genesis
Posts: 130717
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Sorta. The thing is that it matures and when it does, the transaction reverses. Of course if you keep rolling it forever then it doesn't, but the fact that there's a maturity date DOES change the picture .vs. an emission of currency that NEVER backs itself back out.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb. What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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Walk with me through this step by step...
1 - Treasury wants to borrow, say, $1T. Treasury sells $1T in bonds to the market which is really just the Fed at this point.
Balance sheets: Treasury: $1 T cash (newly printed by Fed) Fed: $1 T in T-bills (newly printed by Treasury)
Treasury then goes and spends its extra newly printed trillion.
Now, in reversing the transaction, here's the part that seems weird to me... Treasury doesn't seem to need any actual net cash to retire those bonds, do they? If they come up with $1 T to pay off those bonds, where does that money go? The Fed doesn't destroy it, it passes the cash back to the Treasury, right? So the Treasury retires the bonds and gets back all the money it paid to do so (minus the Fed's nominal operating costs).
What am I missing here?
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Publius
Posts: 853
Incept: 2009-03-08
Greenville, SC.
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Ican,
Think of it this way: Why is counterfeiting illegal (and properly so)?
Suppose I could perfectly counterfeit, making currency that was completely indistinguishable from the real thing. What would I do with that? Simply sit on my ass, doing nothing productive and print the money to buy what I need.
What's the net result of those transactions? Zero new wealth is created and I just steal from all the other economic actors.
Contrast that with a loan. When I take out a loan, I have to pay it back, meaning I have to do something, create the wealth that that loan represents. The newly created credit/money is "backed" by the promise that it represents production I will do in the future.
The interest I pay on the loan is to compensate for the risk of getting the benefit of my future work in the present.
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Wootendw
Posts: 38
Incept: 2010-01-28
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Ron Paul needs to stay focused. It would be better if he would keep to standard Austrian economics - abolish the Fed and return to the gold standard. However, rather than ridicule the only presidential candidate who wants to get rid of the Fed, stop policing the world, and return to Constitutional government, I would prefer that Market Ticker tone it down.
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Publius
Posts: 853
Incept: 2009-03-08
Greenville, SC.
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Ican, Quote: Now, in reversing the transaction, here's the part that seems weird to me... Treasury doesn't seem to need any actual net cash to retire those bonds, do they? If they come up with $1 T to pay off those bonds, where does that money go? The Fed doesn't destroy it, it passes the cash back to the Treasury, right? So the Treasury retires the bonds and gets back all the money it paid to do so (minus the Fed's nominal operating costs).
What am I missing here?
If the Treasury does pay back the $1T, the Fed will indeed destroy that money. The Fed is the source *and sink* for base money. What it passes back to Treasury is *the interest* on the loans it makes (less its own operating cost, and to some extent, a tiny dividend it pays to its shareholder banks -- how much that is I don't know, but it's a tiny fraction of the total). It has to return the interest to the system by "gifting" it (and the beneficiary is always the sovereign), otherwise it would destroy more money that it originally created.
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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What I am saying is it doesn't look like a normal loan when the lender and the borrower are both hands of the government, and the lender has no supply restriction on the amount of money it can conjure, nor has it any need for a rate of return.
If Treasury pays the Fed a billion dollars in interest on its loans, and the Fed turns around and hands that money right back to Treasury for free, as is its legal obligation... then Treasury doesn't need a billion dollars for more than the fleeting moment it takes the money in the transaction to come back to itself.
The upshot to this is that in this scenario, Treasury could retire whatever of its loans the Fed holds at zero actual cost, any time it chooses.
What, if anything, is there to prevent this from happening?
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Publius
Posts: 853
Incept: 2009-03-08
Greenville, SC.
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Ican,
The way it is supposed to work is the central bank, while part of the sovereign, is independent from the political control of that sovereign.
When Treasury wants to borrow money, it has to go to the market and borrow just like any other actor. It is not supposed to depend on the Fed to monetize its debt (this is what has been happening, of course, and part of why the system has become a Ponzi, and will fail).
Treasury should have no control over how much of its debt the Fed monetizes. That should be an independent, monetary decision by the Fed to maintain a well regulated monetary system as need be.
And Treasury just can't extinguish debt. While it pays no net interest on monetized debt (and indeed gets the interest on the other debt the Fed has monetized, such as the MBSes plus the regular loans the Fed can make to banks), it would still have to repay the *principal*. It has to get that money from taxes.
To retire debt, monetized or not, Treasury must tax more than it spends.
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Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Imaginationland
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Yeah, I'm not seeing how the difference is more than academic in the context of a government which will probably never for the rest of its existence see a budget surplus and thus never be able to retire any debt. The "raw printing" Rubicon has already been crossed, in force, thanks to various stupid Fed monetization tricks.
In terms of rollover, a rollover at 30 years may as well just have been printed money - does anyone think the United States lasts in recognizable form 30 years from now without repudiating the national debt? Even expecting this scheme to last another 5-10 years seems like a risky bet to me.
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Rharaz
Posts: 33
Incept: 2009-10-05
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Regarding treasury "debt" repayment, I'm totally confused. It seems like the gov should repay enough treasury debt (via taxation, I'd assume) to keep price inflation in check. But if the federal government actually repaid all the treasury "debt", would there be any appreciable amount of US dollars left in our monetary system? Can private banks issue currency (via loans) if no reserves are available? Thanks for any insights.
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