Oh, Wenzel Wants To Come Out And Play?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-07-03 21:14
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Oh, Wenzel Wants To Come Out And Play?
 

Works for me...

Karl Denninger is out with a vicious attack on Ron Paul that can only be described as proof he doesn't understand Federal Reserve monetary policy AND has a problem with reading comprehension.

Oh really?  Let's step through it, shall we?

During an interview with Iowa radio host Jan Mickelson, Ron Paul called for the Treasury to stop making payments on Treasury securities held by the Federal Reserve. Congressman Paul pointed out that the Fed simply prints up new money when they buy Treasury securities, so there is no obligation to payback the Fed. He pointed out that through taxes, Americans are paying the interest on the Treasury securities owned by the Fed and this should also stop. As part of its $2.8 trillion balance sheet, the Federal Reserves holds $1.6 trillion in Treasury securities.

And here Wenzel goes right out the window. 

The Fed remits all of the interest it "earns" in net income (after operating expenses) back to Treasury.  That is, the interest that is allegedly "owed" to The Fed is actually paid to Treasury ex expenses of operationSince Treasury would have to pay those operational expenses were it to do this on its own, the net is the same.

In other words, taxpayers are paying nothing.

How much has this been?  Something like $80 billion last year!

So much for "The taxpayers would save so much money!"

I then said:

So let's think through Mr. Paul's "creative" solution. Destroying the bonds The Fed holds while leaving the "excess reserves" that are on deposit, which The Fed creates with a push of a button to pay for those bonds, is in fact exactly identical to unbacked emission of currency. That is, raw printing of money.

Yep.  Emitting currency (digital dollars) in exchange for a bond is a loan.  Doing so with nothing in exchange is raw printing of money.

Wenzel then gets one thing right:

Well not exactly. If banks are holding funds as excess reserves, those funds aren't in the system. They are back at the Fed.

Ah, but nothing compels them to hold excess reserves at The Fed.  They're doing so for one reason - there is no productive place to lend them out to.  This, incidentally, is the fallacy of "QE-anything" in terms of "helping the broader economy" - there is no shortage of funds to lend, but there is a huge shortage of qualified and willing borrowers!

But if the Treasury simply defaults on the obligations held by the Fed, this means there is $1.6 trillion less that the Treasury needs to raise in the markets and thus creates huge downward pressure on interest rates and makes it much easier for the Fed to make counter-moves to halt the excess reserves from entering the system. 

The Treasury can't, under the 14th Amendment, default on those bonds.  Never mind that a bond is a bond is a bond - you default on those and suddenly China thinks theirs are unsafe, and, well, what would you do in that instance?

More to the point, however, were Treasury to simply "tear up the bonds" the $1.6 trillion in excess reserves would be instantly unbacked by anything and yet still immediately available for the banks to withdraw and spend.  And since there would be absolutely no obligation to ever return those funds (say, via taxation to retire the $1.6 trillion in treasuries that no longer exists!) this would be an immediate and permanent increase in the monetary base.

That's the definition of (monetary) inflation.

But if the Treasury simply defaults on the obligations held by the Fed, this means there is $1.6 trillion less that the Treasury needs to raise in the markets and thus creates huge downward pressure on interest rates and makes it much easier for the Fed to make counter-moves to halt the excess reserves from entering the system. There are many possible ways to do this. The text book way, that any student who has taken a Macroecnomics 101 course should be aware of,  is for the Fed to simply raise the reserve requirement. Raising the reserve requirement would prevent any of the excess reserves from hitting the system.

Downward pressure on interest rates?  What is Wenzel smoking over there?  You declare on an arbitrary (and unlawful) basis that your debt is worthless by decree and all of the other holders would see this as an increase in the value (and thus depression of the rate) on their holdings?

On what planet?

As for raising reserve requirements I'm sure Welzel is aware that one of the perversities in TARP was the elimination of any formal reserve requirement in the law whatsoever.  I wrote about it at the time.  Bernanke has long argued that reserve requirements are "archaic" and, well, he got what he wanted. 

There is no longer, as of the effective date of TARP, any formal and legal reserve requirement ensconced in law for US Banks.  Bernanke is quite free to set that requirement to anything he desires, including zero.

In short, Denninger doesn't understand the very article he links to, which explains how the Federal Reserve has tools, specifically the reserve requirement , to deal with the excess reserves.

The hell I don't understand it.

QE (and QE2) did exactly one thing.  It allowed the government to run deficits - that is, charge up the national credit card - at rates that were utterly unsupportable in the private marketplace.  In aggregate this has totaled approximately $3.5 trillion beyond what Bush was doing from 2003-2007 (Bush himself was running ~$600 billion in unsustainable deficits.)  Both were nothing more than an attempt to perpetuate this:

And keep this - the fact that we have not run one quarter of actual net positive GDP growth ex-debt accumulation since 1980, from collapsing around their ears:

The problem is that trying to save a Ponzi Scheme never works, because arithmetically it can't.  The longer you keep at it the worse the damage is that you must absorb when, not if, it unwinds.

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User Info Oh, Wenzel Wants To Come Out And Play? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Drench
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Publius
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Yep, typical. Accuse you of not understanding Fed operations and then display his own lack of understanding that Fed "profit" goes right back to Treasury.
Djsnola
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Do these people stop and think? He just destroyed any credibility he had there! Sometimes the internet is a persons worst friend!
Marketman1012
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Karl fantastic tickers.

I was a huge RP supporter and appreciate you bringing this out. He is clueless on monetary policy.

I give him credit for pointing out that there is a serious problem, but he thinks its lack of gold/inflation when as you mention it is the credit aggregates.

Still he is by far the best out there because you will never get the full perfect candidate and trying to usually promotes tyranny, with him at least you get your bill of rights back...I really hope people supporting him start to pressure him on the monetary issue so he stops the gold nonsense and even worse, this raw inflation nonsense.

The conspiracy theorist in me thinks perhaps he intentionally calls for pure inflation because it would make him look smarter if that were to happen because what he said is the TRUE path to hyperinflation, and he has been predicting that for years now.

As always the key is to keep the magnifying glass on them all...as this site always has and always does.
Publius
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I just looked it up. The Fed remitted $76B ($75.845B) in FY2010, and has remitted $64.896B to date in FY'11.

And besides cancelling out the interest on the Ts the Fed owns, Treasury is also getting the benefit of the interest on ~$1T of MBSes the Fed owes, cancelling out even more interest payments on debt held by the public.
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mrsmortgage makes a damn fine margarita. I might have another. Get yourself a frosty libation and enjoy the rest of your weekend.

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I love a good old smiley

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As an ardent supporter of RP I've been very troubled all day. Thank you for going this extra step so that I could understand better.

I've been trying my hardest to avoid turning into a ultra cynical, crusty old man.

Since there's absolutely no one worth my support and vote. And, "tin" is the new reality. I suppose it's time to flip the flag upside down and flick buggars at the neighbors.
Clintb350
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Quote:
and yet still be immediately available for the banks to withdraw and spend. And since there would be absolutely no obligation to ever return those funds (say, via taxation to retire the $1.6 trillion in treasuries that no longer exists!) this would be an immediate and permanent increase in the monetary base.

How does taxation to repay the defaulted bonds stop the banks from using the reserves elsewhere? The banks don't pay the taxes. If they can't lend the reserves to make a profit because there are no willing and qualified borrowers, why wouldn't they make some sort of investment and try to beat the paltry Fed interest rate now?
Icanhasbailout
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Imaginationland
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OK here's the part I don't get:

Quote:
Yep. Emitting currency (digital dollars) in exchange for a bond is a loan. Doing so with nothing in exchange is raw printing of money.


When the loan is being made by simply having your other hand (the Fed) conjure the money from nowhere, how is that functionally any different from simple raw printing?

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Genesis
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Because when the loan matures you have to pay the money back!

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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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I used to say years ago: Good Internet posters are like dogs.. They sniff each others posts before they raise their leg to take a pee. Failure to be a good post sniffer normally ends up with an electrical shock when your pee hits the fire hydrant.

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Quote:
Because when the loan matures you have to pay the money back!


But doesn't that just cycle money between the hands of the same beast? When Treasury pays off the loans that Fed holds, Fed feeds those "profits" right back to Treasury, replenishing the money spent to pay them off. Voila, loan paid back and it costs Treasury nothing. What am I missing here?

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Genesis
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Ron Paul "proposed" simply emitting raw currency - that is, blatant and unconditional devaluation.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Icanhasbailout
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No argument there, I'm just trying to figure out how exactly the two-hand shuffle between the Fed and Treasury is any different in net outcome. Isn't the Fed owning Ts effectively a situation where the government itself is buying its own debt?

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Genesis
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Sorta. The thing is that it matures and when it does, the transaction reverses. Of course if you keep rolling it forever then it doesn't, but the fact that there's a maturity date DOES change the picture .vs. an emission of currency that NEVER backs itself back out.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Icanhasbailout
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Walk with me through this step by step...

1 - Treasury wants to borrow, say, $1T. Treasury sells $1T in bonds to the market which is really just the Fed at this point.

Balance sheets:
Treasury: $1 T cash (newly printed by Fed)
Fed: $1 T in T-bills (newly printed by Treasury)

Treasury then goes and spends its extra newly printed trillion.

Now, in reversing the transaction, here's the part that seems weird to me... Treasury doesn't seem to need any actual net cash to retire those bonds, do they? If they come up with $1 T to pay off those bonds, where does that money go? The Fed doesn't destroy it, it passes the cash back to the Treasury, right? So the Treasury retires the bonds and gets back all the money it paid to do so (minus the Fed's nominal operating costs).

What am I missing here?

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Publius
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Ican,

Think of it this way: Why is counterfeiting illegal (and properly so)?

Suppose I could perfectly counterfeit, making currency that was completely indistinguishable from the real thing. What would I do with that? Simply sit on my ass, doing nothing productive and print the money to buy what I need.

What's the net result of those transactions? Zero new wealth is created and I just steal from all the other economic actors.

Contrast that with a loan. When I take out a loan, I have to pay it back, meaning I have to do something, create the wealth that that loan represents. The newly created credit/money is "backed" by the promise that it represents production I will do in the future.

The interest I pay on the loan is to compensate for the risk of getting the benefit of my future work in the present.
Wootendw
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Ron Paul needs to stay focused. It would be better if he would keep to standard Austrian economics - abolish the Fed and return to the gold standard. However, rather than ridicule the only presidential candidate who wants to get rid of the Fed, stop policing the world, and return to Constitutional government, I would prefer that Market Ticker tone it down.
Publius
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Ican,

Quote:

Now, in reversing the transaction, here's the part that seems weird to me... Treasury doesn't seem to need any actual net cash to retire those bonds, do they? If they come up with $1 T to pay off those bonds, where does that money go? The Fed doesn't destroy it, it passes the cash back to the Treasury, right? So the Treasury retires the bonds and gets back all the money it paid to do so (minus the Fed's nominal operating costs).

What am I missing here?


If the Treasury does pay back the $1T, the Fed will indeed destroy that money. The Fed is the source *and sink* for base money. What it passes back to Treasury is *the interest* on the loans it makes (less its own operating cost, and to some extent, a tiny dividend it pays to its shareholder banks -- how much that is I don't know, but it's a tiny fraction of the total).

It has to return the interest to the system by "gifting" it (and the beneficiary is always the sovereign), otherwise it would destroy more money that it originally created.
Icanhasbailout
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What I am saying is it doesn't look like a normal loan when the lender and the borrower are both hands of the government, and the lender has no supply restriction on the amount of money it can conjure, nor has it any need for a rate of return.

If Treasury pays the Fed a billion dollars in interest on its loans, and the Fed turns around and hands that money right back to Treasury for free, as is its legal obligation... then Treasury doesn't need a billion dollars for more than the fleeting moment it takes the money in the transaction to come back to itself.

The upshot to this is that in this scenario, Treasury could retire whatever of its loans the Fed holds at zero actual cost, any time it chooses.

What, if anything, is there to prevent this from happening?

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Publius
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Ican,

The way it is supposed to work is the central bank, while part of the sovereign, is independent from the political control of that sovereign.

When Treasury wants to borrow money, it has to go to the market and borrow just like any other actor. It is not supposed to depend on the Fed to monetize its debt (this is what has been happening, of course, and part of why the system has become a Ponzi, and will fail).

Treasury should have no control over how much of its debt the Fed monetizes. That should be an independent, monetary decision by the Fed to maintain a well regulated monetary system as need be.

And Treasury just can't extinguish debt. While it pays no net interest on monetized debt (and indeed gets the interest on the other debt the Fed has monetized, such as the MBSes plus the regular loans the Fed can make to banks), it would still have to repay the *principal*. It has to get that money from taxes.

To retire debt, monetized or not, Treasury must tax more than it spends.
Icanhasbailout
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Imaginationland
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Yeah, I'm not seeing how the difference is more than academic in the context of a government which will probably never for the rest of its existence see a budget surplus and thus never be able to retire any debt. The "raw printing" Rubicon has already been crossed, in force, thanks to various stupid Fed monetization tricks.

In terms of rollover, a rollover at 30 years may as well just have been printed money - does anyone think the United States lasts in recognizable form 30 years from now without repudiating the national debt? Even expecting this scheme to last another 5-10 years seems like a risky bet to me.

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Rharaz
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Regarding treasury "debt" repayment, I'm totally confused. It seems like the gov should repay enough treasury debt (via taxation, I'd assume) to keep price inflation in check. But if the federal government actually repaid all the treasury "debt", would there be any appreciable amount of US dollars left in our monetary system? Can private banks issue currency (via loans) if no reserves are available? Thanks for any insights.


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