Darth said:

Quote:

If those 'zombie' bastards make me have to go through a bunch of tiresome running, they'd best go ahead an kill themselves, because when I catch their asses, it will NOT be pretty!

EXACTLY!!!!!

I sure hope this doesn't happen until after mid-July; I want to see the final installment of Harry Potter and if the collapse messes that up, I'm going to be*****ed!

Hope is a good thing. Maybe the best of things. And no good thing ever dies.

ha
well kinda anyway
ive been running all my life
literally and figuratively
im kinda tired of running now

all due respect guys ... where you gonna run to?
and whatre gonna do when you get there?
when the mres are all et?
think i;ll stay here and make the best of it
nobody lives forever
peace

I think the key to survival in a crisis environment - whether it's short-term like a natural disaster, or more-or-less permanent like a total economic collapse - is to have some sort of plan of action already in place well in advance. Equally important is the ability to quickly recognize when your plan isn't working, and to make necessary adjustments (which is probably where that cardio training would come in handy. . .)

Seriously, I commend those of you who acknowledge your physical limitations. You may be pleasantly surprised that your awareness of what you can't do may enhance your ability to survive a SHTF scenario. If you know from the start you can't outrun the zombies, you're that much more likely to figure out ways to avoid them altogether.

Quote:

I think the key to survival in a crisis environment - whether it's short-term like a natural disaster, or more-or-less permanent like a total economic collapse - is to have some sort of plan of action already in place well in advance.

I also think that, no matter how well planned and how well prepared and stocked, if it really goes to Zombieland or Mad Max, you will need some luck.

If things fall apart long term, unless you literally have a year's supply of food, the time of year will definitely be a factor in how well you weather the situation. We have enough seeds and materials to grow a commercial farm, but if you don't have time to grow it and harvest it, you will still starve. If it crashed in October or November, you could go through a lot of stores before your garden is ready to feed you.

Staying warm and dry is harder than most people think it is. I hunt and fish, and have lived off the land for 2 and 3 weeks at a time doing so in my younger days, but my younger days are gone and well behind me, and my wife, daughters, sister and poor old sainted mother have never done anything like that. Keeping them warm and dry will most definitely be an effort if the world fell apart during the wrong time of year.

*********************************************

I'm kind of like Olduser, in that I suspect many of us older folks "know when to hold 'em, and know when to fold 'em." I expect I will be "folding 'em."

Alternatively, since the world has a tendency to pass by without acknowledging your existence when you get old, maybe I'll be left in peace to dig wild parsnips by the side of the road, and catch a fish now and then.

I notice there are a lot of wild parsnips around here. Though they don't especially appeal right now....

Great thread. This is a good reminder to keep going and get done the things that can be done.

While I'm in reasonably good shape and have no problem slinging 70 lb. bales of hay, I do carry a few extra lbs. that I hope will be gone in another several months. That said, while I don't much care for running/jogging, I can hoof it a long way with the right shoes. Besides, with 1300 lbs of steed that can gallop at about 550 meters per minute for 6 miles, why would I want to run ? I'll let the horse do it. And if we trample a few zombies in the process, oh well

I for one am much looking forward to the collapse; I just need a few more months to get everything done that I want to do. I'm pretty sure I'll have the time. I'm thinking like others, it'll be a slide into oblivion, with lots of denial by those "in charge". Teachers, police and firefighters will be fighting over the scraps for as long as they can. (looking at YOU, deputy ******* who gave me lip about getting a CCW permit...your face was on my target at the range)

Quote:

One thing I think Karl overlooked on his list is diversifying your skill set. I am self-employed in a very "discretionary spending" industry- car washes, but I was a FF/Paramedic in a former life. If it gets bad enough that people have to choose between food, gas in their car, or washing their car, I'm screwed. I'm in the process of getting my paramedic license renewed. I think if things turn really ugly,health care jobs will be some of the last to go. The income isn't great, but it may be very well put food on the table if things got tough enough.

I agree with you there. Not just in a professional sense, but a skills for survival sense as well. I'm planning on taking some kind of EMS/EMT training course and learning how to grow some of my own food because I feel like those skills will be useful/necessary in general. Incidentally, if anyone has any tips or recommendations on either of those or anything else that may be useful, I'm all ears!

The advantage that psychological preparedness gives you could mean the difference between life and death. The obvious stuff aside, most of us will be spending a lot less time wondering WTF just happened and moving FORWARD. It will be because we already thought long and hard about it and that WILL be a large advantage over those in a reactionary mode.

While Ive done some preps, and Im in pretty decent physical shape, I probably wont quite get where I need to be with respect to long term financial security. Just too much tied up in my 401K right now and I can only use a small portion of it. Convincing others to do drastic things..like the wife..is a difficult and touchy subject. If I was on my own........

Anyway, I feel like forums like this have helped me to understand the particular and precedent setting nature of current events. Its made me FAR more prepared in MIND than anything else. I believe that is a big deal when the bad stuff comes to pass.

I've said it before multiple times, so I'm sure quite a few of you know my opinion on it.

What can you do with what you carry in your pockets every day. No time to grab your bag, no vehicle availible, just you and what you have on you at any given time.

Can you run into the woods and survive?

THAT is your test. You want to avoid the zombies, you want remote. If you can survive off the land, then you're in better shape than 99.9999% of the people out there.

Can you make fire with nothing but what you find around you? Can you make a shelter to protect you from heat/cold/wind/water/snow? Can you use what you find around you to hunt/fish/trap? Do you know some of the more common edible plants that grow around you and, just as important, the dangerous ones?

Can you make a spear? Can you make a bow? An arrow? An arrowhead? Can you make string/thread/rope from **** you find around you?

If you can't do those things, you might as well not bother preparing because when your bag runs out you're gonna die anyway.

[Edit: 100% agree with pilot on the mental preparation. It *IS* the most important thing.]

Asi- big knife- or no big knife? ;)

Cody Lunin is a nut- but I have enjoyed watching what he does out there. I keep trying to get the guys in my "hey man, when things get bad- can we come with you" group to go out and do just that. Spend 3 or 4 days out in the wild and only bring 1/2 a days worth of food. (yes I know, this isn't survival- but it would serve as a wake up reminder that we dont know what in the **** we are doing.)

I found a guy through ham radio that has another hobby along the lines of this thread. WA7MLH is his call. His second passion is becoming a Neoanderthal, animal skins and all. It is about as basic as you can get, flint knapping and fire building.
I think the Amish are about the best prepared out there with one exception, they are pacifists.

Just ordered Born to Run.

Wife and I are doing a triath in September and we both are not looking forward to the running part.

I can swim like a fish and ride like there is no tomorrow- but despise running. Maybe I am doing it wrong ;)

I don't know if you guys are familiar with Steve Keen, he had some good videos floating around last year. Here is a pdf he just put out.

http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/wp-co....

Slope of Hope: Hitting on Macro themes....

http://slopeofhope.com/2011/06/macro-sto....

Macro Storm Clouds Gathering




First Macro Cloud

As we all know, The bernanke's most cherished policy measure QE2 comes to a screeching halt at the end of this month. Assuming that the program ends as planned, the Fed will have bought about $600 billion of various Treasury securities since late 2010, in addition to whatever agency debt proceeds were “re-invested” into Treasurys. Once the cruthches are removed from the patient, will he stand on his own two feet? I should think not, afterall, his arms (unemployment) & his legs (Housing values) have not heeled at all. Ask SHJ what happens when crutches are removed prematurely;-)

"The Standard & Poor's 500, the US stock market's benchmark index, could fall roughly 10% from its current level, partly due to the upcoming end of the Federal Reserve's bond-buying program, Credit Suisse's US equity strategist said on Wednesday." Doug Cliggott, of Credit Suisse, told the Reuters 2011 Investment Outlook Summit in New York. "We are of the opinion it is still a big deal," Cliggott said. "We would think an index between 1,170 and 1,200 would be a realistic estimate of where we might be headed."

Although a third round of QE, namely QE3 has been heralded by the lame street media, as a possibility. We all know that inflationary price pressures created by QE1 & QE2 make a new round of QE very remote for now, and most politically controversial, as it is now perceived to have mainly helped the very same bankers whom are largely responsible for the mess we find ourselves in. Of course, the stealth QE of re-investing the interest earned on the hugh amount of crap currently held on the Fed's balance sheet will continue unabated. However, all in, this stealth QE only adds up to a little more than a third of the current monthly POMO. Hardly enough to keep grossly inflated asset prices from rapidly deflating.



Second Macro Cloud

The ever growing amount of discouraging economic data points released over the past month are alarming to say the least. The jobs report was a “disaster”, the housing numbers are dismal, manufacturing has slowed way down and consumer confidence is dropping like a rock. The bad economic news just keeps rolling in. It is almost as if someone has slammed on the economic brakes. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its index of national factory activity fell to 53.5 in May from 60.4 the month before. The reading missed economists’ expectations by a long shot!

Mike Riddell, a fund manager at M&G Investments in London, recently explained to CNBS why he is so alarmed right now….“Initially, we just had bad news from the weekly jobless claims data, but now we’re starting to see a broad-based economic slump. US house prices have fallen by more than 5 percent year on year, pending home sales have collapsed and existing home sales disappointed, the trend of improving jobless claims has arrested, first quarter GDP wasn’t revised upwards by the 0.4 percent forecast, durables goods orders shrank, manufacturing surveys from Philadelphia Fed, Richmond Fed and Chicago Fed were very disappointing.”

Earlier this week it was announced that U.S. home prices have declined 5.1% from a year ago. Sadly, U.S. home prices have now fallen more than they did during the entire Great Depression.



Third Macro Cloud

Federal, State & local budgets are now squarely on the choping block. Only two choices before us, raise taxes or cut spending, both will adversely effect economic growth.

As Treasury Secretary Geithner warned, on May 16 a recent Treasury auction of U.S. debt will clear, putting the nation at its $14.294 trillion legal debt limit. With even the most aggressive plans taking years to balance the budget and end deficit spending, the U.S. will need to raise the legal debt ceiling to prevent economic calamity. Geithner has warned that he can only keep things running until July through “extraordinary measures” before the crisis reaches a state of overload.

The federal government today is taking in revenue equal to about 15 percent of the GDP. It hasn’t been that low since the 1950s, before programs like Medicaid and Medicare existed. To keep revenue that low as Baby Boomers retire is simply not realistic.

The housing market downturn, financial crisis and recession created a collapse in state and local revenues, which caused many states, cities and counties to raise taxes, slash spending and turn to the federal government for help. Almost all state and local governments must end their fiscal years with balanced budgets. As their costs rise in one area, they will have to cut spending in another or raise taxes to cover the new demands. Investors in the $2.9 trillion municipal bond market have been spooked by the budget crisis and have been pulling their money out of muni mutual funds for nearly five months.

China is certainly concerned about our fiscal woes, this from AFP Yesterday:

A Chinese ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order. "In our opinion, the United States has already been defaulting," Guan Jianzhong, president of Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. Ltd., the only Chinese agency that gives sovereign ratings, was quoted by the Global Times saying. Washington had already defaulted on its loans by allowing the dollar to weaken against other currencies -- eroding the wealth of creditors including China, Guan said



Forth Macro Cloud

China slow down becoming more & more pronounced.

China has been called the “savior” of the world’s economy as its massive $586 billion Government Stimulus and Easy Money policies sustained over 10% GDP growth in 2009 even as the world GDP was contracting for the first time in recent history. However China’s huge stimulus has created problems of inflation and asset bubbles which threaten to slow down the world’s “Growth Engine” .

Seven very compelling reasons outlined by noted economic journalist Abhishek Shah as to why China's growth is now in serious question:

Real Estate is a Bubble - The Chinese real estate is in a bubble with real estate prices growing far in excess of Chinese income levels. Though the real estate is not driven by a debt fueled boom like the US and other developed countries, nonetheless avg real estate prices / average income levels would suggest that the real estate prices are poised to come down sharply. Chinese authorities are using both monetary and non-monetary tools to bring sanity to this market
US and European Export markets are slowing down – China’s growth has been a export driven growth like those of other Asian Tigers. However its main export markets of Europe and US are going to see sub-par growth in the next few years due to a debt driven excess. Europe’s Austerity measures and a low Euro is not an ideal situation for China’s export industries .
Pressures on Yuan growing – China is facing an ever increasing chorus from countries around the world to appreciate the yuan which is artificially suppressed through currency controls. Some think tanks suggest that the yuan is 40% undervalued to its fair value against the dollar. With countries seeing their domestic markets shrink,everyone wants to export more and import less to repower their economies. An undervalued yuan is a trigger for trade wars.

Foreign MNCs feeling discriminated against – China’s protectionist policies has led to an alienation amongst the foreign companies doing business in the country. Rio Tinto’s much publicized China corruption case and the Google abandonment of China has brought this issue into the limelight. Foreign countries are reevaluating whether China’s huge market is worth the discrimination they face vis-a-vis domestic companies

Banks and Local Government have huge unaccounted liabilities - China’s corporate structure runs large based on patronage networks of government owned banks, state owned companies and provincial authorities. This frequently leads to misallocation in capital which shows up in the forms of NPAs. Local governments compete with each other for projects giving out huge subsidies and incentives which are funded mainly through local land sales. With real estate prices crashing and profits of export industries being pressurized, this is another bubble that may crack.

Chinese Stock Market is down the most among major markets in 2010 – The Chinese stock market has been the worst performer among major economies with the interest rate increases and real estate bubbles making investors wary. Note this by itself is a poor indicator of economic health as stock markets are generally poor predictors of economy in the short run

Chinese wages are going up – There has been a lot of social unrest and suicides in China as wages fail to keep in sync with the rising productivity. Recent suicides at Electronics Giant Foxconn and strikes at Honda are indicative of this trend. Low wages which are China’s biggest competitive advantages may no longer remain one for much longer.


Fifth Macro Cloud

European soverign debt / EU banking crisis is clearly coming to a rapid head, and about to take on a much more ominous direction. Should the Syntagma square Greeks in the street of Athens obtain the plebiscite / national referendum they are clamoring for...watch out below! The fuse is now lit, and this could well be the first domino to fall, causing the anticipated chain reaction setting off the $600 trillion in CDSs (you know....Warren Buffet's weapons of mass financial destruction), which would unravel the entire EU / Western World banking system as we know it.......

Prime Minister George Papandreou said Monday he would consider holding a referendum on the government's reform agenda, if necessary, to shore up popular support for the measures. Papou used the word referendum last week and again this week. Referendum is not a word that goes down easily in the corridors of power in Brussels.

From Israel news - Arutz Sheva:

Yet it is hard to see what other choice the Greek Prime Minister has. His popularity rating is hovering around 30%; he faces growing dissent within his own Greek Socialist PASOK party and Greece is ablaze with strikes as workers who see themselves victimized by privatization vent their anger. The economy has contracted more than expected. Further austerity is a hard sell to the Greek population because it appears to be all pain no gain. This is particularly true for the young who are living with 42% unemployment. The Greek politicians show no desire to emulate the Portuguese and therefore somebody must give in real soon – the European governments, the banks, the bondholders or all of them.

Here is how John Maudlin sums things up in the old world continent:

There are just so many risks in Europe that it is hard to make a list long enough. I think the risk to the world markets is higher than the subprime risk, at least from what I can see today. I know that the leaders of Europe think they can “contain” the risk. So did Bernanke in the summer of 2007. You cannot contain this until you actually admit the problem. Our credit institutions are so intertwined that a repeat of the 2008 credit crisis is entirely possible. Who plays the role of Lehman? Let me count the candidates. Greece. Ireland. Portugal. Spain.



Sixth Macro Cloud

Middle East mayhem shows no signs of abating....Stalemate in Libya, Upheaval in Syria, Yemen bedlum, Supression in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia paying off dissent, Iranian sponsored medling, Egypt turnover turmoil, Renewed Iraeli / Palestinian clashes, Hamas & Hesbullah brotherhood,.......the beat goes on.

The Arab Spring seems to have disolved into the Winter of discontent. Oh, and let's not forget the trillions spent keeping us safe from the boogeyman in the ongoing Iraq /Afghan / Pakistan clusterphuck.



















Posted by BDI at 2:26 PM | Permalink | 290 comments

I carry 3 knives all the time. One that's a large heavy folder, one small pocket knife for less heavy work, and a tiny little blade on my keychain (and scissors) that is WAY more than sharp enough to shave with.

I also carry a crescent wrench that opens to 1/2".

So... Well, the one thing I'd want above all others that I can't carry all the time is my hatchet.

I am really geeked on this barfoot running thing. It make since as to why I hate running so much- the pain. (not the muscle pain- just the pain of heel impact.)

Like I said- Born to Run is on order- but I also youtubed a bunch.

This chick, besides being pretty easy on the eyes, has lots of good tips.

Re: fitness.
I use Vibram 5 fingers for training; they made the pain from my knees go away due to the different stride. I find that frequent training is needed otherwise my feet and calves get sore after a workout. They are much to lightweight for endurance treks- boots are obviously required then.

For true emergency situations, I expect to wear either light hiking boots or steel toe working boots.

Added as edit: I think another thread should be opened for highly probable threat scenario's. What I have in mind are treatments like "Alas Babylon" (novel by Pat Frank), or "One Second After" (novel by William Forstchen). In both it took months for stabilization to a workable local economy.

The economy and food supply system typically has about of week's worth of food in the pipeline. It takes a month or more to starve to death. Therefore at least two months (with margin) of survival time is required before the FSA dies off. What happens after that?

True eutopia without the FSA ;) Chance to rebuild the right way? :)

I've been playing a lot of Fallout 3. Does that count as prep?

Quote:

If the zombies are truly after you you'll have adrenaline on your side, and lots of it. You'd be shocked at what that will do to your performance "under the gun." The problem is that if your cardio is not up to snuff you'll have a heart attack and then you're ****ed.

True, but you better hope that you can get to a safe place to recover fairly soon. Most people can run on adrenaline for a day maybe, 30 hours tops, and then what you use up in the burst you have to pay back with interest. I've had some pretty bad adrenaline crashes during my life, and for me, during that 24 hour or so crash all I could do was sleep.

Quote:

I've been playing a lot of Fallout 3. Does that count as prep?

No, but you might want to dust off "Left-4-Dead"

Karl Denninger is a great leader.
The area I have been watching is the ocean currents. Which have lost the great engine of the north atlantic overturning. Result is, that the ocean is moving a great deal less, and in different ways. Leading to a cooling of northern oceans and people are really not planning for that. A vast change in ocean creature population numbers is taking place, fishing will be impacted. I support the global warming nonsense as why inform all? Let those paying attention get out of the way first. Just try talking to relatives about needs to buy warm clothes ect and watch the same results you get when you suggest someone change their diet.
People do not act on visible threats. Some do.

Long time lurker who finally can offer something.... For all the worn out knee issues ( and other worn out joints) please look into prolotherapy. At 40 I was almost unable to walk unaided, Not good for a tower climber, and the ortho docs only wanted to cut me up. I looked into prolo and after receiving treatments , I am walking, running and back to climbing with gusto. I never thought I could be mobile again before the treatments. I had a torn ACL and wornout inner meniscus ( both knees) and a torn Achilles tendon.

Couple of links...
http://www.prolotherapy.com/prolodefine.....
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prolotherap....

And in Michigan call this doctor
http://www.davidnebbelingdo.com/

I'm 47 now and have not any relapse for 4-5 years now.

Cheers

Barry

Hunh. Husband has worn out both knees with hard labor (concrete construction company owner) and his hobbies are auto mechanics, building furniture, metal fabrication, etc., all of which would be difficult to do due to the lack of mobility that he would have with the double knee replacement that his doc says he needs. If that is something that works, he'd be very interested.

About how many injections did you need, and what was the cost, since insurance doesn't cover it?