One (More) Reason We're Totally Screwed
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-05-24 10:17
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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One (More) Reason We're Totally Screwed
 

The public failed Math Class, and it's our fault for dumbing it down in the schools:

WASHINGTON (AP) -- They're not buying it. Most Americans say they don't believe Medicare has to be cut to balance the federal budget, and ditto for Social Security, a new poll shows.

....

Americans worry about the future of the retirement safety net, the poll found, and 3 out of 5 say the two programs are vital to their basic financial security as they age.

What are they going to do when it's not there? 

And let's make no mistake: Medicare, in its current form with the current medical system, cannot be fixed.

"Medicare is an incredibly complex area," said former Sen. Judd Gregg, R-N.H., who used to chair the Budget Committee. "It's a matrix that is almost incomprehensible. Unlike Social Security, which has four or five moving parts, Medicare has hundreds of thousands. There is no single approach to Medicare, whereas with Social Security everyone knows where the problem is."

It's not complex at all.  Let's recap:

  • In the 1950s, 60s and 70s, nearly everyone went to the doctor or hospital and wrote a check.  If you had insurance for major incidents you submitted the bills to the insurance company and they reimbursed you.  The system was stable.

  • Since that time medical "insurance" was made part of employment benefits and you no longer "saw" the bill.  At the same time we passed laws mandating that anyone be treated even if they had no money and/or had chosen not to buy insurance (EMTALA) making insurance companies immune from anti-trust law, making it possible for them to legally discriminate on any basis they wanted to.  Finally, we imposed laws making it illegal to dispose of property in the medical realm, even sealed, known-authentic property, as you wish.  This was done so that foreign nations could "have access" to drugs and devices at reproduction cost while forcing Americans to bear the development expense of virtually every new device and drug, from MRIs to CAT scans to heart stents to new medicines.  By de-coupling cost from consumption this raw financial******job was successfully "hidden" by the medical industry from consumers for 30 years.

  • We then passed Medicare Part "D" allowing Seniors to write checks on the Treasury for these very drugs that we just forced Americans to pay for the development of effectively subsdizing the entire world's population in consumption of those drugs.

Now we wonder why we're going broke?

There's no solution to Medicare under the current system.  It is mathematically impossible to support the entire world's development of drugs and devices on our backs.

Forcing people to buy insurance won't fix it either; the problem doesn't lie there.  But you wouldn't know this from the media, as they absolutely refuse to confront the medical industry - all of it from the doctors being "enticed" to prescribe new medicines that are 10x as expensive as the old, off-patent ones, the advertising aimed at consumers on television (did you ever see such a thing in the 1970s?  Nope) and the fact that Juanita the illegal Mexican Invader can (and does) come across the border 8 months pregnant with zero prenatal care and then drops an anchor baby here that not only entitles her to stay forever but at the same time costs the taxpayer $100,000 for the rather-complicated birth that she cannot pay for.

There is no other nation in the world that allows this crap.  Canada has socialized medicine but they impose strict price controls on drugs and devices.  The rest of the world with socialized medicine does so as well.  None of these nations allow their pharmaceutical companies to sell drugs and devices at 10 or 100x the price in other nations in their markets and get away with it.

Then there are the true "Free Market" systems, such as India.  You can fly there and have a procedure done.  Your hospital room will look and be handled like a 5-star Hotel.  Your procedure will cost 1/2 to 1/5th of what it costs here in the US.  You will have to pay cash, but you can afford to, and the doctor who performs the procedure is probably a graduate of a US Medical School.  If something goes wrong, however, you can't sue everyone to beyond the orbit of Mars, and more importantly, that very nice Hospital doesn't treat people who don't have any money.

Fact: More than half of all emergency room care is forcibly provided without compensation today.  And that's just where it starts.

But it gets even worse when we start talking about the American Idiot condition:

This paper examines households’ financial fragility by looking at their capacity to come up with $2,000 in 30 days. Using data from the 2009 TNS Global Economic Crisis survey, we document widespread financial weakness in the United States: Approximately one quarter of Americans report that they would certainly not be able to come up with such funds, and an additional 19% would do so by relying at least in part on pawning or selling possessions or taking payday loans.

WHAT?

$2,000 was not an accident; it was selected as the approximate cost of an emergency transmission repair to your primary vehicle, or a blown water heater with mild damage to the building, or a car wreck that leaves you upside down (that is, with no ability to replace the car) and thus needing to buy "anything that runs" to get you to and from work.

Almost 25% of Americans could not raise these funds within 30 days and another 20% could do so only by destroying their personal financial condition.  Yet that's not even the question; emergencies don't wait for 30 days!  If your transmission blows up you need it replaced now, not in 30 days.  Ditto if you have no hot water or need a vehicle to get to work.

I personally went through a few months where I couldn't come up with that in some form or fashion when I struck out on my own.  I owned an old AMC Pacer (it was all I could afford to buy) and had to jury-rig a new muffler system on it at one point because I couldn't afford to take it to the muffler shop.  Every day I wondered if some ordinary disaster that we all suffer at some point in our lives would bankrupt me.  But I didn't stay that way for long; soon I had a couple large in the bank - just in case - and I did it by eating lots of Mac-n-Cheese and cutting out the beer for a while.

Our debt-laden society has led to utterly ridiculous and unsustainable expectations and beliefs.  It doesn't matter what people want to believe or want to have.  What matters is what mathematics will support.

We cannot continue on the road we are on, yet the demagoguing of these issues by both left and right have led people to believe, on a serial basis for more than 30 years, that we can repeal the laws of mathematics.  This has led to the following:

There is no solution that involves continuing this sort of budgetary debauchery. 

It must end, and end now.

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User Info One (More) Reason We're Totally Screwed in forum [Market-Ticker]
Econ101
Posts: 684
Incept: 2007-08-19
Green
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If someone can setup a poll, will be interesting to see how the financially literate TF crowd fares against national average in finding 2000 in 30 days.
Twainfan
Posts: 147
Incept: 2010-12-01

Minnesota
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Another excellent ticker. It's simply amazing how TPTB have destroyed savings in this country. And the people that simply refused to save and just spent like drunken sailors. The whole system is going to hit that granite wall and the fallout will be ugly at best.

I personally don't see a way to save SS either. We're closing in on having 1 person paying in for every 1 person collecting benefits. Even if we raise retirement age to 70 that still won't be enough income coming in. It seems to me that simple math would say that a large number of retirees would have to die off to get the ratio back up over 5 or 6 to 1 again just to be sustainable for the time being. Am I wrong in the way that calculates out? Otherwise we'd have to raise retirement age to at or beyond avg life expectancy so that fewer and fewer people actually get to collect benefits until such time as a better ratio of those paying in and those collecting is achieved.
Riceday
Posts: 502
Incept: 2009-10-30
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Someone quick! Give amnesty to the illegals! Ratios fixed!

I would venture to say a random $2,000 is a normal maintenance to budget for (blown waterheater, transmission, broken arm could hardly be considered catastrophic).

Crimsonavenger1
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-11-23

Charlotte
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Not having access to the paper (and being too cheap to pay $5 for it) - did this relate solely to coming up with $2K in cash, or did it include the ability to charge it? Either way, 45% is scary as hell - but if they're so debt-saturated that they couldn't even charge that, I'll be stunned.
Mortgageguymn
Posts: 1562
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Green
North Coast
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Nothing will be fixed while being a national politician is a cushy job that they want to hang onto at all costs. Fixing anything would be political suicide in an innumerate nation. We need to encourage political suicide by making being part of the federal government (congress & president) less attractive. That's why we need to move the seat of government to Barrow, Alaska. It will also have to be a "dry" town, with prostitution being illegal.
Corn1945
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We are fooked.
Drhooves
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Central IL - "the land of crooks and windbags"
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Articles like this make me feel like I've had a gun held to my head to buy a ticket on the Titanic. Damn the icebergs, full speed ahead!

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Gen says "it" is coming because:

"Balance sheets have two sides!"......and
"You can't count a single dollar twice!"
Docj
Posts: 998
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Duck & Cover
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The headline at Yahoo! of this poll was something like "Most Americans don't think Medicare needs to be changed". Which, if this poll is actually an accurate reflection of "Most Americans" then all if confirms is what we've all known for quite some time - that "Most Americans" are morons.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Anti
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The way the system is, probably the ratio of American to whom Medicare is important as they age is much higher than 3 out of 5 - more like 99 out of 100... because the cost billed to the uninsured is 10x that billed to insurance. Meanwhile safe and effective treatments have been discarded in favor of new high price inventions.

How about a glucose,potassium,insulin drip for a heart attack intervention? No, much more fun for the medical industry to perform a bypass and install a stent.
Dr. Sodi Pallares of Mexico City developed that along with a high potassium, low sodium diet in the mid-twentieth century. Cheap and effective, but you won't be offered that here, even if you can't afford the high priced alternatives.

J6P might be better able to handle a small emergency if his paycheck wasn't being depleted by the cost of his health insurance and if those outrageous costs and taxes were not built into everything he buys.

Going back to the 1950s or earlier is the best way but TPTB wouldn't like an independent self-reliant population.

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Health is better than health insurance
http://gerson.org/
Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Arw
Posts: 217
Incept: 2009-03-02

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Quote:
We're closing in on having 1 person paying in for every 1 person collecting benefits.


This.

There's no fixing SS with actuarial chnages.
Bertdilbert
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Gold
CA
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"Someone quick! Give amnesty to the illegals! Ratios fixed!"

But that is the lie that has been going around, that we are going to be saved by the immigrants. We are going to have this huge influx of young people coming accross the border that will pay SS taxes to save the system.

I just don't see how these people are going to have the breadwinner incomes attached that would produce the SS taxes necessary to support the system.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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Quote:
because the cost billed to the uninsured is 10x that billed to insurance.


Or more.

I'be been trying to get a breathing test to "prove" I have asthma (like I don't know that already) and can't find anyplace within 50 miles that does it for a price I can afford.

Without the test, the doc won't write a prescription for asthma meds.

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Gates
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Scottsdale
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Heh - yep, we're ****ed - there is NO WAY the politicians will do anything of substance as long as polls like that are reflecting that sentiment. Buying more ammo and body armor...

Lastscottsman
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Houston, Texas
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"The headline at Yahoo! of this poll was something like "Most Americans don't think Medicare needs to be changed".

We live in a society that has embraced the concept that ignorance, arrogance and willful stupidity are virtues. The motivation being that critical thinking causes discomfort when applied to character defects which are encouraged for the sake of dependency and control.

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O Lord God, let me not be disgraced in my old days. Or if Thou wilt not help me, do not help these scoundrels, but leave us to try it ourselves."
Fieldmarshall Leopold I Prince of Anhalt Dessau
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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Do most view Medicare as the same thing countries with socialized medicine have? That might be part of the problem.

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Flappingeagle
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There is a reason Dave Ramsey, the #1 finance guy out there for the masses, has Step #1 as: build up a $1000 emergency fund.

As for not having $1000 or $2000, the ever lower interest rates (and collapsing dollar) make it where holding on to money seems foolish, if you happen to have some to hold on to. The working poor (and many of us that are not poor) see holding dollars as foolish. Why hold on to a vanishing asset? As I told a friend the other day, I DON'T WANT MONEY! I instead want something tangible.

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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Bohemian
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In this case, Bezzle's is absolutely right. Stop paying taxes. Screw em' and their laws. What'r'they gonna do? Arrest you? At least you'll have three hots and a cot when TSHTF, eh?

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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
Tm22721
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I am more than happy to fly to India for major medical services. Let the leechfux here fill the cemeteries.

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The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.

The only way up is down.
Oldpool
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LI NY
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I found it!

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Liberty, Comrade!
Bandler6
Posts: 383
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Under a rock
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Medical Tourism is a great idea, unless you are on the no-fly list. Then you are properly ****ed and can't even attempt to manage or control the effects of the twilight zone pricing of our current system.

Maybe Paddy O'Bama can grant you waiver...that's a .gov ball sack flipper that gets paid OT to waive at you as they put you in the amberlamps to the local chop shop.

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"Betray Your Bank Before Your Bank Betrays You"
Hapablap21
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This is why I hate polls. Because if they'd called me and asked, "Do Medicare or Social security have to be cut in order to balance the budget?", I'd have answered no. I mean, yea, we'd have to cut everything else, including 100% of the defense budget, along with all spending in every other area of government. Do I like that alternative? Hell no. But that's not what they asked. Just goes to show, you can get any response profile you want in a poll.

ETA: none of which is to excuse the stupidity of the American public. 90% of people are complete retards. I just hate polls like this.

Njwlog77
Posts: 7
Incept: 2010-05-13

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"we imposed laws making it illegal to dispose of property in the medical realm, even sealed, known-authentic property, as you wish"

Can someone explain what Karl is talking about here? I am aware of the prohbition on the re-importing of drugs, but what other laws effect our medical device technology? thx.
Genesis
Posts: 130690
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Drugs AND devices.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Sharon
Posts: 4352
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Odessa, Missouri
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Quote:
The public failed Math Class, and it's our fault for dumbing it down in the schools


The type of math you are speaking of was not taught, even back in the antediluvian days when I was in school. All the stuff I've learned here about money and credit and the monetary system should be taught in high school. None of this stuff is beyond the reach of a high school kid, if he/she is actually being taught math, and this stuff is taught in a structured way.

No GOVERNMENT school will EVER include anything like this in the curriculum. In the absence of any kind of corrective information, people naturally fall prey to the purveyors of credit.

What's worse, though, is that what IS taught is an unshakable belief in an all-powerful government, rolling in an infinite supply of money. People are pretty much taught to view the government as omnipotent, and not in any way subject to the laws of nature or the laws of math.

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Semper ubi sub ubi.
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