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| The Greece Fire Never Did Go Out in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Inkt2002
Posts: 99
Incept: 2009-07-15
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Karl,
I know you are bearish on silver, but you must have been really bullish on crystal, because you managed to buy the biggest crystal ball I have ever seen. Chalk this up to another one of your predictions coming to fruition.
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Tank
Posts: 441
Incept: 2007-12-14
Seattle Area
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Could this be:
?
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"A danger foreseen is half avoided." -Thomas Fuller (1608-1661)
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Peterm99
Posts: 4995
Incept: 2009-03-21
SoCal
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IF Greece actually bails on the Euro and it is seen to actually improve the country's situation, this is just the start of a cascade, as Tank shows.
I would think that Ireland and Portugal would follow suit, as both are being squeezed by the EU banksters. Also, wouldn't Germany be even more strongly motivated to return to its own currency and stop being the patsy supporting the rest of the weaker nations in the Eurozone? France can't support the rest without Germany, etc., etc., etc.
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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Yep.
This gets going, the Euro blows up.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Bohemian
Posts: 9658
Incept: 2010-07-27
California
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Genesis wrote..This gets going, the Euro blows up. ... and the dollar recovers?
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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Uh, "recovers" isn't quite the word. Don't be short dollars when it happens.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Peterm99
Posts: 4995
Incept: 2009-03-21
SoCal
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"Recovers" with respect to the remnants of the Euro, yes, but what about with respect to a new Deutsche Mark?
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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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Dji
Posts: 1245
Incept: 2009-04-21
Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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Hey Gen does this explain why the IRX is at .005 now ? Wonder how long ago the Banksters knew?
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Don't be a bag holder-Me
What goes up Must come Down- Alan Parsons Project
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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I can't place a bet on something that doesn't (yet) exist.
DJI: Just might!
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Mpilar
Posts: 5613
Incept: 2009-01-05
Nashville, TN
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Peter, if Greece dumps the Euro and blows off the banks like Iceland did, Germany's going to have serious problems of it's own trying to save their banks (if they can). It will take them a while before a new Deutsche Mark would be worth much of anything.
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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
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Peterm99
Posts: 4995
Incept: 2009-03-21
SoCal
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Mpilar -
Please explain.
I would think the value of a country's money is more a function of economic productivity/potential, rather than whether the banks are bankrupt or not. For example, if by some miracle, the law were allowed to work in the US and all our TBTF banks bit the dust, why should that tank the dollar?
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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
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Bobinator5000
Posts: 137
Incept: 2009-08-16
Illinois, USA
Banned
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"Uh, "recovers" isn't quite the word. Don't be short dollars when it happens."
"Irrational Emancipation of Value through Self-Immolation"?
Has a catchy ring to it.
Either you choose a Collapsing Euro, A em-brazened fed (QE3), or a local currency which makes international trade difficult.
Now what'd be interesting is if in such an event Gold/Silver paper were relied upon for a significant sum of international trade. Not interesting from the standpoint of Goldbug Mania, but interesting from the standpoint of the way the market would valuate gold paper vs actual gold.
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If (rate of inflation) * (total unencumbered currency) > (total unencumbered currency) per year; the difference is guaranteed to default per year. Covering the difference via debt causes exponential inflation; Interest reaches unsaleable levels, monetary base contracts, then collateral values and banks collapse.
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Asimov
Posts: 104066
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Gitm
Posts: 218
Incept: 2007-06-26
Colorado
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From the article: Quote:...it is questionable whether other members of the currency union would actually refuse to accept a unilateral exit from the euro zone by the government in Athens. Are they threatening WWIII? World wars have started for much less. |
Blackswan
Posts: 5564
Incept: 2007-11-06
Just outside of Philly
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I am sure the EU blowing up is priced in.
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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
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Mpilar
Posts: 5613
Incept: 2009-01-05
Nashville, TN
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Peter, I don't think the banks blowing up would cause the decline - lack of confidence - in a new Deutsche Mark...it would be the actions that Germany would inevitably take to 'try' and prevent them blowing up in the first place Quote:if by some miracle, the law were allowed to work in the US and all our TBTF banks bit the dust, why should that tank the dollar? It wouldn't (well, perhaps very temporarily as a loss of confidence), but what would potentially tank the dollar, is constantly trying to prevent the banks from blowing up by borrowing/printing and playing games with the debt that's out there. Those things cause confidence to waiver...and in the end, Quote:money is more a function of economic productivity/potential potential = requires confidence
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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
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Richard112360
Posts: 610
Incept: 2008-02-06
Hooterville
Banned
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Quote:This gets going, the Euro blows up. I'm afraid if the Euro blows then this gives King Bernanke every incentive to double down with his money printing! |
Tsberts
Posts: 2357
Incept: 2008-02-05
Minnesota
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And if the Dollar "recovers" that puts a fork in any asset denominated in dollars.
Like commodities, equities, real property...
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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
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Bohemian
Posts: 9658
Incept: 2010-07-27
California
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Tsberts wrote..And if the Dollar "recovers" that puts a fork in any asset denominated in dollars.
Like commodities, equities, real property... Which would be why we've seen a 5-day shift in commodities headed south? I love TF. In two pages of a Karl Ticker the brain trust figures it out. 
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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
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Peterm99
Posts: 4995
Incept: 2009-03-21
SoCal
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Mpilar -
I think I understand what you're trying to say, but I think you're wrong about confidence in any new DM.
I believe that if Germany were to announce a return to the DM, demand for German DM denominated bonds would immediately be much greater than current demand for German Euro denominated bonds.
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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
Reason: fixed underline
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Kamath
Posts: 1539
Incept: 2009-04-04
Sweden
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This is so much fun. I love it. Please, pretty please, please detonate, but not before meeting S&P500 targets. :)
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"Yep - and that ****er didn't want to light either. I had to soak it in gasoline for a full day before that rat bastard thing would combust." - Karl Denninger
""We could not be more ill served if we had some South American tribal witch doctor shaking monkey bones at us. "
- Infidel
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Money0inquisitor
Posts: 116
Incept: 2009-09-06
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bullish for gold? Sovereign defaults always seem to inflame the passions of the heart for the yellow metal.
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Mpilar
Posts: 5613
Incept: 2009-01-05
Nashville, TN
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Quote:I believe that if Germany were to announce a return to the DM, demand for German DM denominated bonds would immediately be much greater than current demand for German Euro denominated bonds. I don't know...I find it hard to believe that there would be much confidence after an EMU (and quite likely EU) collapse for investors to come flocking back to a DM very quickly...
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Every normal man must be tempted at times to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin to slit throats. H. L. Mencken
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Popothebright
Posts: 2756
Incept: 2008-05-16
Bangkok
Banned
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please please please please please don't pussy-out Greece.  Remember: 
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In America the choice of political party is little more than a choice of which corrupt management team implements the corporate agenda.
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