GDP: Stinker
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-04-28 08:40
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
GDP: Stinker
 

Well here we are.....

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.8 percent in the first quarter of 2011 (that is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter) according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

So much for the "QE will save the economy" meme.

When something doesn't work, and you keep doing it, what are you?  (Hint: Go ask Einstein)

The deceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected a sharp upturn in imports, a deceleration in PCE, a larger decrease in federal government spending, and decelerations in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports that were partly offset by a sharp upturn in private inventory investment.

No really?  The govenrment's running out of the ability to deficit spend, non-residential fixed investment (that is, actual investment) is slowing, and consumption on a discretionary basis is going through the floor due to increases in the cost of food and energy.

How many times does Ben get to be wrong again before someone puts a sock in Bernanke's money-printing machine - or a few wooden shoes?

After all, energy cost increases were "transitory" in the 1970s too, right?

Oh wait... maybe they're not here....

The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 3.8 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the fourth. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.1 percent in the fourth.

Ehhhhhh.... ok, so now that headline "inflation" is showing up in core, which is exactly what Bernanke said wouldn't happen.  Again.

This is a very weak report and if the current set of policies is maintained I would expect to see negative prints before the end of the year.

The worse news?  If we change course we also see negative prints.

"Here it comes."

PS: Before people point to the personal income and spend side and say "see see see!" I will simply observe that a huge part of that was from the FICA tax cut, which in turn makes the deficit worse.  Pulling out the credit card does not result in actual economic improvement.  It's a scam, and one that is reaching the breaking point.

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Comments.......
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Tsberts
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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.

Reason: Gen's proofreader army at work
Rdaniels
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If actual inflation numbers had been used to net GDP, it could have been a negative print. The government has a huge conflict of interest in under reporting inflation.

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I wouldn't be so pessimistic if it wasn't so hopeless.
Infidel
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between here and there
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"Loading POMO turdpedo tubes 1,2,3,4,5,6 safetys are off, lets hope these fish don't come back around on us"

Ben:"FIRE"

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"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Rktbrkr
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US
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The gurus were right on the money when they said $4 gas wouldn't slow the recovery.Uncle Ben blames the 1.8% on snow, not the runup in oil & commodities resulting from QEII. I assume a weak 2Q will be attributed to unprecedented tornadoes in the south.

Transitory is Uncle Bens new favorite word. life is transitory.

Safest bet in the house QEIII will not be called QEIII.
R2judge
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"Before people point to the personal income and spend side and say "see see see!" I will simply observe that a huge part of that was from the FICA tax cut, which in turn makes the deficit worse."

Tax cuts didn't work. Credit worked. No tax cut was offset by a cut in government spending to balance the equation. In each tax cut government borrowing increased, goosing the economy, along with the increased debt consumers were able to take on due to less taxes out of their pockets.

That is why the republicans signed on to tax cut extensions of 450 billion a year, then complained about skyrocketing deficits, while cutting a mere 38 billion from the deficit. A deficit of 400 billion put 400 billion more borrowed money into the economy.

On the part of both parties, this is all a sham, all a fraud.
Etz
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But cockroach bankers had record bonuses.

Booyah!

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Tesla
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From ZeroHedge: a superb graphic

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/visuali....

Visualizing The Collapse: Charting The Drop From Q4 2010 To Q1 2011 GDP (Which Came In At 0.8% Ex-Inventories)

The bottom line: Q1 GDP ex-inventories came at 0.8%, the lowest since Q3 2009. The economy has hit stall speed, and absent another fiscal (nope) or monetary (QE3) stimulus, we will go negative in Q2, now that the full impact of the Japanese economic collapse has forced even the ostriches to pull their heads out of the sand. Alternatively, Bernanke will be stuck with the worst case of stagflation since the 1970s. Rock and hard place: just as we predicted in December 2010.

The chart below shows the ugly collapse in the economy in Q1: recall that up to a month ago it was supposed to grow by 4%! Now, ex inventories, it is 0.8%. And most importantly, the strong US consumer, in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures, sees his share of economic growth drop by over 30%, from 2.8% to 1.9%.

Ball is in your court Chairsatan Printocchio.

inline


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Themortgagedude
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Methinks it's time to buy the VIX. This is gonna get a little bumpy.

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Infidel
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between here and there
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June will put the V back in the IX

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"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Tnhermit
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Not to worry . Its just the storms

http://m.yahoo.com/w/ynews/article/topst....
Docj
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Recovery winter, baby!

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Pezhead
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How do you correlate lower GDP with higher rail traffic and truck tonnage? Former says things are getting worse and the latter says it's getting better.

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Djloche
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Lower government spending? I could have sworn we put record breaking numbers down at least one of the past few months. Something like over $330B spent in a single month...

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"Just because the **** has not yet hit you in the face, does not mean that the **** has not hit the fan."
Rvacha
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Pez- Check out the ZH pic above. Inventories are building while the GDP shrinks. It is not uncommon to see a build in inventories for a recovery that never comes (or is not very robust)

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"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Sqmo
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So how does this effect the GDP/debt chart? For the first quarter GDP increased by $135B, yet Fed. debt increased $279B. That is a factor of 2, or 0.5 depending on how you look at it. I think the total debt (Fed Z1) has been going up at more like $400B/quarter so that would make it even worse.
Djloche
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Quote:
a larger decrease in federal government spending


JANUARY 2011- $276B vs 247B in 2010
FEBRUARY 2011 - $333B vs 328B in 2010
MARCH 2011 - $339B vs 218B in 2010

How is this in any way 'a larger decrease in government spending' ?

Not that i need an answer, we already know that Ben is selling boxes of dogcrap...

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"Just because the **** has not yet hit you in the face, does not mean that the **** has not hit the fan."

Jinxx0r
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inline

If you squint, you can see benny in the back...

Lenguado
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What are the numbers if you back out the Govt Deficit Spending????

Without the govt portion of GDP, my bet is that the #s ARE negative..... VERY negative.


smiley

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they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
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Widgeon
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That's True ... Fed & Mar 2011 were the TOP TWO MONTHS OF SPENDING EVER.

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