More Drug-Smoking On The Debt
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-04-26 13:23
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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More Drug-Smoking On The Debt
 

This sort of argument by idiocy is tiring, but oh-so-common....

To read economic and political commentary with any kind of frequency is to be bombarded daily - and hourly for that matter - with breathy articles about a United States groaning under deficits that surely signal bankruptcy, Social Security checks that eventually won't clear, and of course a looming financial crisis. A recent New York Times column by noted deficit scold David Stockman naturally referenced America's "desperate" financial situation.

Much of this commentary is well written, it's certainly popular, but it's also total nonsense.

Really?  What's driving that commentary?  Let's examine your article and see if we can find the gist of your claim - and then see whether it makes sense!

To understand why they should, it has to be remembered that large as the Treasury's debts are, basic economic models whereby the U.S. economy grows in the 3% range show that over time the debt could be paid off with ease.

Except that, when adjusted for new debt issuance, the compounded growth rate since 1983 is -3.96%.  Yes, annually.  Incidentally, from 1953-83 it was 5.30%.  Yes, annually, and yes, positive.

What happened?  Idiocy happened.  The bone-smoking by people like you happened.  The premise that we could "Grow" the economy by borrowing to consume, and that we could relabel various parts of "consumption" as "investment" as a means of hiding what we were doing - in particular,as regards residential construction (that is, houses.)

But changing the label on a box of dog turds to "Chocolates" does not make them chocolates.  It just makes the person who does it a liar and a fraud. 

Indeed, the true crisis at present is all the government spending which signifies capital waste and destruction, and what that tells us about the myriad Microsofts, Googles and Intels that never saw the light of day thanks to our federal government consuming so much limited capital. Similarly the crisis is an individual one when we consider the millions of Americans who might be doing things that are actually stimulative to the economy and to their self esteem were they not working for the government.

Uh, oops.

You know, the "America is bankrupt" claim (which is true, incidentally), is predicated not on private activity but on government.  Governments at the State level, which have promised $1.26 trillion (at present) more than they can deliver and Federal "benefits" that total somewhere around $100 trillion (there's a quibbling of $20 trillion or so, plus or minus - at that level does it matter?) in "retiree" benefits that it can't fund either.

More-immediately, the problem lies here:

That's a real $1,700 billion last year that was spent into the economy, directly lifting GDP by some 12%.  But the government didn't have the money; it didn't tax it from people, it borrowed it from nowhere with the complicity and involvement of The Fed.

Would that "nice orderly and liquid" Treasury market look as good as it does absent The Fed?  You don't know and neither do I.  But this much I do know - you can't argue that a market that is being heavily interfered with is "all ok" when the interference is still occurring.  You have to stop the interference and then see exactly how "well-behaved" that market is - or remains.

Nonetheless were the government to "get out of the way" the long-term benefits would be real.  I'd much prefer that people work producing things in the private sector such as at Google or Microsoft rather than warming a desk at DHS or Health and Human Services. 

But one point we cannot deny as it is a basic mathematical fact: If the government stops its deficit spending and "gets out of the way", GDP will fall by the exact amount it ceases to borrow in excess of taxation until and unless that private-sector growth occurs.

It is, in fact, the intentional refusal to recognize that the economy was grossly overheated in 2007 that has led us to this cliff.  It is idiotic refusals to admit to the basics of arithmetic that, if pursued, will drive us off it.

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User Info More Drug-Smoking On The Debt in forum [Market-Ticker]
Joshua_d
Posts: 163
Incept: 2010-08-26

Lenoir, NC
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"It is, in fact, the intentional refusal to recognize that the economy was grossly overheated in 2007 that has led us to this cliff. It is idiotic refusals to admit to the basics of arithmetic that, if pursued, will drive us off it."

We're off the cliff, Karl. At the moment, many people are trying to get the folks who have been riding at the back of the bus to come up to the front of the bus so they can take the impact of the crash that's inevitably coming. I, for one, am not going to go to the front of the fracking bus!
Jpg
Posts: 329
Incept: 2009-03-23

MI
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Quote:
That U.S. Treasury continues (sadly) to borrow large amounts of money, and that investors line up for the privilege to purchase the debt, tells us that those who regularly dine out on the bankruptcy concept should temper their rhetoric.
What investor is lining up for the privilege of purchasing debt, other then the Benbernank?
Dugless
Posts: 67
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Green
New Hampshire
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"And that's the first problem with the bankrupt narrative; specifically that the deepest, most informed markets in the world disagree. If U.S. finances were really as bad as the commentariat suggest, and have been suggesting for decades, Treasuries would be in freefall."

What will happen to the treasury market when the Fed stops buying. Central bank intervention has clearly distorted the treasury market. Eventually they will have to stop.
Inkt2002
Posts: 99
Incept: 2009-07-15

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Karl,
Doesn't your deficit spending effect on GDP comment assume that the marginal productivity of debt is 1 and static?

Genesis
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No. Please review Economics 101 for the minimum impact that eliminating 12% of GDP in the "G" item will cause.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Kypackrat
Posts: 63
Incept: 2010-12-12


Banned
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Quote:
Central bank intervention has clearly distorted the treasury market


The treasury market isn't very free in the first place. A lot of pension funds, mutual funds, insurance companies, etc. have to buy Treasuries at auction rates, whether they want to or not. Between the walking dead (BoA, Chase, etc.) and the Fed, there's enough US new money that can sop up what the International market won't buy.

I have a small amount in my 403b short the 10 year Treasury market, since I know rates have to go up eventually. However, I expect the currency markets to kill us before the Treasury market gets around to going to toilet paper status.

Reason: Didn't make clear that it's rates that need to go up.
Inkt2002
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Yes, but what portion of that deficit spending is on social security,unemployment benefits and other transfer payments not included in the government spending portion of GDP?

Genesis
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Quote:
Yes, but what portion of that deficit spending is on social security,unemployment benefits and other transfer payments not including in the government spending portion of GDP?

All of it is either in "G" or "C". Pick one.

(You really aren't dumb enough to argue that transfer payments aren't "C", right?)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Icarus
Posts: 250
Incept: 2010-11-11
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Looks like Mr. John Tamny may be using the old argument "depends on what the meaning of the word 'is' is...."
Looking back through his article archive he says:
Quote:
The late Citibank chairman Walter Wriston is famous for saying "Countries don't go bust." His comment in the '80s and now engendered for him a lot of ridicule but, if looked at realistically, what he said was correct.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles....

But further along, he says:
Quote:
At this point U.S. politicians have shown no spending discipline no matter the party in power. In that case, if market discipline proves the only cure for the spending disease, then we should embrace a U.S. debt default without reservation.


In the sense of bankruptcy as a "legal finding that imposes court supervision over the financial affairs of those who are insolvent or in default", maybe the US isn't "bankrupt".
But, while he denies the possibility of a US "bankruptcy", he admits a default is not only possible, but desirable.

Gov't bankruptcy vs. Gov't debt default......a distinction without a difference?
Flappingeagle
Posts: 1229
Incept: 2011-04-14

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Here's a snippet form an article.

"Here is why. Private banks always lend at interest, so more money is always owed back than was created in the first place. In fact investors of all sorts expect more money back than they paid. That means the debt needs to be not only maintained but expanded to keep the economy functioning. When the Fed "takes away the punch bowl" by tightening credit, there is insufficient money to pay off debts; people and businesses go into default; and the economy spins into a recession or depression. "

The rest is at:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ellen-brow....


I'm not taking a postion on this one, just pointing it out.

Peace



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Here are my predictions for everyone to see:
S&P 500 at 320, DOW at 2200, Gold $300/oz, and Corn $2/bu.
"You can't build a house of cards on a shaking table." - Tony Johns
The January 2015 AMZN put at $130 (cost $4.25) will be a winner.
Mrbill
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Only the best garbage at HuffPo. You can borrow from your own people like Japan does, but ONLY if you are running a current account surplus, otherwise you're necessarily borrowing from the rest of the world.

Even Americans have other options for saving other than getting 1% interest in a depreciating currency.

Capital flight FTW
Donethat
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Lets keep looking at the big picture. It is not the average worker who has made this debt bubble. Back in 1958, the financial sector debt of 20 billion was 1/5 of the home mortgage debt of 110 Billion. Now financial sector debt is 14 Trillion and home mortgage debt is 10 Trillion.

The increase in debt, whether financial or government is the method in which certain parties are increasing their wealth. They are the Minsky Ponzi speculators.
Steelhead23
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Portland OR
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Krugman has presented similar, if somewhat more astute commentary along this vein. You make the perfect argument - the Fed is manipulating the market for T's. Indeed, even Bill Gross, who reaped a windfall from QE (by buying Ts with his sails full of Fed wind), is now clearly stating it didn't work and only enriched the banksters and goosed financial markets - it did exactly nothing beneficial for the overall economy. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pimcos-....
It might be fun to total up QE and divide it by the increase in the number of jobs during the QE durations and place a "value" on those jobs. I'd bet its well north of $100k per, perhaps by several orders of magnitude. The truly astounding bit in all of this is the outrageous dismissal of the views of the rational by the clergy of American Exceptionalism. Karl, you are Descartes, reincarnated. I simply cannot wait for the end of June and the end of QE.

Also, I cannot help but wonder what might happen once the Fed does stop printing. If bond vigilantes can be termed Bondzilla, the Fed is King Kong and bond players (like Gross) have to know if prices drop too far, too fast, helicopter Ben would fly to the rescue. But even a gradual rise in rates would explode the federal deficit and virtually force austerity. That is, if the federal government continued deficit spending, Bondzilla would make those deficits even larger by forcing higher rates, so the primary engine for QE - federal deficit spending, would sputter. That could be real ugly for a while, but that would mean that the financial markets are working. BTW - Tamny taking shots at David Stockman over his newfound conservatism is unseemly. I hope Tamny is long Treasuries.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Jstanley01
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The misappropriations of capital are past tense, making sustained growth at three percent this side of a reset a pipe dream.

You know, a reset. Like the Soviet Union went through. Socialism Lite, as practiced by Babylon on the Potomac, is as doomed as full blown Communism was.

Except that TPTB like their power and wealth, and want to keep the game going. After all, it's the only game they know (being, themselves, misappropriations of labor).

That's why when TSHTF in 2007, they doubled down. And why there is basically no limit on how desperate of measures they will take as the grift continues to unwind.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Antone
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I think they skipped the smoking and freebasing and went straight to mainlining.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Joshua_d
Posts: 163
Incept: 2010-08-26

Lenoir, NC
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"Jstanley01: The misappropriations of capital are past tense, making sustained growth at three percent this side of a reset a pipe dream."

Yep. This is the part many people want to "blank out" on. The capital that flowed into the housing bubble has been spent. Not fake fiat capital, but real materials, real labor. That capital cannot be unspent.

Arguing over the value of that capital in dollars is useless until you realize that actual materials and man hours were spent and can't be unspent.

The housing bubble is different from the tech bubble.
Dashingdwl
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los angeles
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The Left’s Faux-Outrage Over the Ryan Plan
April 27, 2011 4:18 P.M.
By Andrew Stiles
Poor liberals. They were so desperate to see a “Widespread Public Outrage Over GOP Plan to Abolish Medicare” narrative emerge over the Easter recess — and I’m sure they genuinely thought it would happen on its own — but events on the ground simply haven’t lived up to expectations. And polls like this one must really make their heads explode.

Now they are trying to make hay out of a handful of YouTube clips that simply don’t measure up to the headlines they are posted under — for example: “Republicans Get Grilled at Town Hall Meetings…” or “GOP Congressmen Get Eaten Alive at Town Halls” — especially when you find out a few paragraphs into a story that Congressman X was “was interrupted at every turn by shouts from his critics, including members of progressive groups such as Moveon.org and Organize Now.”

Take this clip of freshman Rep. Sean Duffy (R., Wis.), who easily makes the list of top five Democratic targets in 2012 — “Duffy Gets Grilled Over Data.” Perhaps I have a different idea of what constitutes a “grilling,” but I don’t think this quite measures up.

In fact, the highlight of clip is the part where the “griller” dismisses the Ryan budget on the grounds that “a Nobel Prize–winning economist labeled it ’a fraud.’”

“Who’s that?” Duffy asks.

“Paul Krugman.”

(Uproarious laughter ensues.)

http://bcove.me/u3mrqbva

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Jubber
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UK
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If the Fed practically owns all the bonds, ...then the "Bond Vigilantes " surely don't actually own any to sell, or an I missing something???

....or if the Fed buys what the Japanese and Chinese sell to them without lowering the bid drastically then doesn't this charade just continue for many more years?

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Mrbill
Posts: 7857
Incept: 2008-10-19
Gold
North Carolina
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It's not all the bonds, they're just barely bigger than China as far as holdings go.

I wonder if the Fed has reduced liquidity in the bond market with all their purchases recently? That's a big "buy and hold" buyer.
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