Here's Your Mainstream Idiocy For Today
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-04-26 09:22
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Here's Your Mainstream Idiocy For Today
 

Seriously folks, two articles that are literally one-below-the-other on Bloomberg this morning:

First, Ford:

Ford Motor Co. (F), the second-largest U.S. automaker, said first-quarter profit rose 22 percent to the most for the period since 1998 as it won higher prices for fuel- efficient new models.

Got the punch line?  People paying more money for the same thing: A car.

Ok.  But.....

Brady Miller is paying more for vinyl siding for his construction business and for groceries to feed his family. He can’t charge customers more, showing why some Federal Reserve officials say inflation will ease.

....

The Mossville, Illinois, homebuilder also hasn’t given his crew of two a raise in two years and says they shouldn’t expect one soon.

Wait a second......

We got a little problem here.  On the one hand we have companies claiming that they're doing gangbuster business and charging customers more for the same thing, predicated on a claim of better efficiency or whatever have you.  (Incidentally, it takes years - if ever - to recover the "savings" from higher fuel economy.  An increase of 5mpg in a vehicle's economy where you started with 25mpg, results in a savings of 100 gallons of fuel per year if you drive 15,000 miles.  At $4/gallon that's $400.  $30/month, roughly, is what it "saves" you.  How much did the new vehicle cost you again and how much more was the "energy efficient" model?) 

On the other hand we have employers saying loudly (and they have been for several years) that there are no raises in the offing - and there haven't been any raises.  At the same time food and energy costs go higher, which means that your disposable personal income after necessities - which include that food and energy - is going down.

Both of these statements cannot be true at the same time, in the general case in the economy.  Oh sure, a few companies can exploit someone else's weakness.  But in the general case one of these two claims is false.

“It’s tough,” Feroli said. “Consumers will have to reduce real spending” if they don’t draw down savings or take on more debt.

They can't take on more debt.  There's no capacity for it.  That's why we hit the wall in 2007, yet everything that has been done since has been undertaken with the singular focus of continuing to lie about what happened, why it happened, and punishing those who were responsible.

Those responsible parties sit on Wall Street and in Washington DC.

That which cannot continue will not continue.

Brace for impact; our government and Federal Reserve are severely deluded, and reality is about to intrude.

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User Info Here's Your Mainstream Idiocy For Today in forum [Market-Ticker]
Blackswan
Posts: 5564
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Gold
Just outside of Philly
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Coffee 34 year high.. Clorox raising garbage bag prices 7% -- according to 1060 news radio.. No inflation. No margin or demand destruction coming. Party on.


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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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Cotton at 150 year highs.

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Halfbrite
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Arizona via California
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Quote:
That which cannot continue will not continue.

Brace for impact;


Can I copy this as my new sig line? It's brilliant.

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Genesis
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Yep.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bertdilbert
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CA
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That is why I say we are going to be a nation of poor people, and poor people cannot support a consumer economy or pay taxes.

To support environmental regulation that congress critters love to pass means increased cost and that increased cost comes out ot the only flexible part of the businesses expense = lower wages. The writing on the wall there was when we were going to have all these environmental jobs created, but someone has to pay for all these new jobs which come as a liability to society. In essence it is just another hidden tax.

The air is a lot cleaner when nobody drives to work, and your carbon footprint is reduced when you sit at home.

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Dear Euroland: Relax, Germany has a plan for your money!

Political Capital Defined: We are out of money but will tax our citizens for whatever it takes to "SAVE" the Euro.
Trades50
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And taxes.... Property taxes have increased 25-33%. Also other (fees, income and sales) taxes to make up for pension and revenue shortfalls.

License fees of all sorts have increased. Waste fees have increased all in the effort to maintain profits.

Something has to give.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson

Stillfishin
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Seems to me that vehicle prices took a 25% jump almost immediately after the cash for clunkers bull****. Imagine that, the gov't tells us peons to conserve,do not be wasteful, etc. etc. Then they go throw away how many ****ing man hours of labor, not to mention materials all to prop up big business. Now tell me that isn't fascism?
Yaldor
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I am amazed that "increasing debt" is still an option.

this is like the oxymoron that they had about "more affordable housing" - by taking bigger loans at lower interest rates....

DEBT is slavery not affordability.


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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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KD - What's rattled me lately is the earnings being turned in by stocks like Intel, Apple, Polaris, Wynn, CMG, F5, now Ford and others. If it's that bad, and I think it is, how are these stocks putting up these numbers? Are these special "best of breed" companies? What am I missing. It looks to me like the S&P wants to put in an inverse H&S and break out to new highs while the US economy, employment, gasoline all move in the wrong direction.

Dollar weakness alone does not explain to me the performance we're seeing in stocks right now. I'm truly stumped.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Infidel
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Green A True American Patriot!
between here and there
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The Fed can stay deluded longer than most folks can buy beans. Ask them if they care.

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"DON'T BELIEVE THEM, DON'T FEAR THEM, DON'T ASK ANYTHING OF THEM." -ALEXANDER SOLZHENITSYN.

Pcaldallas
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Is there any commodity that hasn't ramped to new or all time highs? One would think that eventually the hot money will run out of places to flow.

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"The appearance of law must be upheld, especially when it's being broken." - Boss Tweed, Gangs of New York
Steviepointer
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Eighty:
That's exactly what I've been feeling. I was talking to someone today about the earnings that are coming out.

I'm just not seeing it. Every day, people around me are getting crushed by higher commods, yet these companies are posting record profits.

I'm starting to question my sanity here.

Debtpie
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"They can't take on more debt. There's no capacity for it. "

Oh, yes there is...

Local stores are all offering 0% financing for 1 or 2 years.

My recent trip to a furniture store found a line at the finance office...plenty of capacity for 0% interest loans...ability to eventually pay them back is another question...

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A Leader, or an Opportunist? "A leader has the capacity of vision, the ability to see where things are headed before people in general see those things." Mitt Romney --- DebtPie's definition: a leader decides where "things" should head and "leads" us there.

Steelhead23
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86, I seem to recall Dick Fuld telling investors that Lehman was strong - right up until he declared bankruptcy. So, are earnings reports accurate? Hell if I know - and I bet the SEC doesn't know either. Welcome to ScAmerica.

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
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Mo
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Quote:
Is there any commodity that hasn't ramped to new or all time highs?


Yes, rice. Apparently rice is off-limits to the banking vampires, as 3rd world lives are much more valuable to the oligarchy than American or European lives.

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Starvingartist
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I noticed that too Mo, rice is down. Good thing I like rice :/

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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Grashopa
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The Asian countries learned from 2008 that rice causes riots, the first deaths from commodity prices were due to rice then. This time obviously they are intervening.

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Gsholz
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86, regarding the astonishing results of some companies vs the malaise in the US.
What you are observing is that multinational companies are doing very well, companies focused on US not so much. For example, Intel makes 65% of revenues outside of US. Strong demand in Asia, resource-rich countries and a weaker dollar supercharge their earnings.

Seedyrum
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Thank you Genesis for seeing what we don't see, understanding what you see, and then reporting it.

I must say I like you because you are willing as a other, to speak out against the others. You still, however, have a ways to go, to be there. Many loyal others are but lemmings. Better, I likened them to Jews. They followed and vote even against their own interest even if the leader is wrong. There is a disconnect.

Did some our companies collude to raise the price of things to charge more but while keeping salaries down? One to ponder. Since some of them are raising the price on some commodities but keeping salaries low, whats their motives??

I am not shocked by anything these days. Well, I am. Shocked that it took too long for some folks to wise up to the quadruple dealing that's going on.

Selling your soul to make a dollar.

Gas chambers, here come some of us, as some of us don't ask tough questions of our leaders. Depression for some of us. Lap of luxury for the rest of us.

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USA IS EGYPT May God Have Mercy On Our Souls and Even That Is Not Enough.DIVIDE AND CONQUER

Reason: I was told to make changes.
Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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GS - 100% agree. Do you think that can be sustained without the US consumer over a longer period?

Can US companies prosper long term with declining purchasing power of US consumers more than offset by growing international demand? Can international growth continue with a wounded US consumer who can't buy as many of their products?

Is this a new global growth story where the US is left behind and the Fortune 500, less a few names solely focused on the US market, continue to grow earnings?

My thinking has been that the growth story in the Pacific will falter once the US is forced to remove government stimulus and our economy adjusts for that but is that true?

I'm questioning my approach to being out of US equities even if they have a majority international exposure.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Genesis
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Seedy: And your alternative is?

Partisan political rants on a non-partisan Ticker, when the Democrats have done the EXACT SAME THING, is a great way to lose an account around here, and I'm in the mood for it today.

Care to revise and retract?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Harrisonact
Posts: 1754
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canada
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Quote:
Yes, rice. Apparently rice is off-limits to the banking vampires, as 3rd world lives are much more valuable to the oligarchy than American or European lives.



explains my $5.97/20lb. bag find.

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bilge
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Mannfm11
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Paradoxically, drawing down savings in sum is a liquidation of debt, someone elses debt. We have a massive slice of GDP reflected as corporate profits. Leverage and transfer payments is making that possible. If these corporations had to rely on the purchasing power of their customers alone, most would go broke

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Sushihorn
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Quote:
What's rattled me lately is the earnings being turned in by stocks like Intel, Apple, Polaris, Wynn, CMG, F5, now Ford and others. If it's that bad, and I think it is, how are these stocks putting up these numbers? Are these special "best of breed" companies? What am I missing. It looks to me like the S&P wants to put in an inverse H&S and break out to new highs while the US economy, employment, gasoline all move in the wrong direction.

Dollar weakness alone does not explain to me the performance we're seeing in stocks right now. I'm truly stumped.

In the short-term, dollar weakness also increases reported earnings. Notice that it's the multi-nationals where you see this, which have a lot of sales and profits in other currencies. Translate the earnings into a weaker dollar and suddenly it looks like "growth" when it's really just debasement. If a company has costs mostly in dollars but sells a lot in other currencies, this effect is greatly magnified for earnings.

IBM is one of the few companies that explicitly breaks out currency effects - but only for revenue. Their revenue growth was 8% reported but 3% of that was due solely to a weaker dollar. This will help multinationals for a little while - until the higher prices in dollars begin to offset the dollar weakness. Of course this all implodes on any dollar reversal so be on the lookout for that.

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