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| Bullish Sentiment? Huh? in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Madashel
Posts: 1129
Incept: 2007-09-14
Gone
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"bullish" and "bull****" are very similar and easily confused with each other. I always make that mistake myself. Good job Gen for calling out the bullish, er I mean bull****. 
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I know not what others may choose but, as for me, give me liberty or give me death. - Patrick Henry
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O.jeff
Posts: 86
Incept: 2011-03-24
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"The counter-balance that is often said is "well, what else would you buy if not stocks?" And that's the question that one has trouble answering, simply because valuations, no matter where you look, appear to be quite rich among your other options"
Karl,
What do you think of TIPS? I am considering buying some 5-year TIPS at the auction this month. For this money, I am just looking for a place to put money that will retain purchasing power--I am not looking for a tenbagger, etc.
Do you think TIPS will generally retain their purchasing power through whatever game might be played?
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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No, because the number being used for CPI is cooked.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Montana
Banned
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Yep - that's a major editorial oversight on AAII. Mish should have caught that one. However, the Investors Intelligence survey, which I consider somewhat more predictive with regard to timing, is indeed showing long-term highs in its bull/bear ratio, exceeding that of Oct '07. http://www.market-harmonics.com/free-cha....
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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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IIs is indeed, but still, factcheck when it's easy. I can see rushing something out the door when it's not....
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Jpg
Posts: 329
Incept: 2009-03-23
MI
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Quote:..."the most bullish in six years." Remember the Great Lie of the 1992 Presidential campaign of "Worst Economy In 50 Years" when it had clearly been far worse a mere 12 years earlier during the dying days of the Carter administration (on which I am now starting to look fondly)? |
Rutben
Posts: 1414
Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ
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Bogey....I've followed Investors Intelligence for years, but even that one seems to have lost its predictive ability.
On Nov. 17, 2010 bullish sentiment jumped 8% to 56%. The Dow was 11,007 then. Bullish sentiment has been between 55-60% much of the time since then. One day it will matter, but not this week yet.
Yesterday I was ready to add my first short in two years during the expected ramp job at the close. Luckily it didn't get filled. I still plan to get my feet wet in the next two weeks even though the only "technical" indicator I have confidence in is the Fed's ability to print. Hope I don't get hammered too badly as I try to catch the brief lull between QE2 and QE3.
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Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Montana
Banned
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I tend to agree with all of that, Rutben. To me, technical indicators became useless the minute they started diluting the denominator (i.e., the dollar) to such a large extent. Wish I'd realized it sooner, as I fought the Fed somewhat from summer '09 thru roughly last October. Been doing better since I learned to love the QE bomb.
But I haven't stopped worrying. When I see II bears now at a level that even last year, in arguably a similar environment, led to a couple of 8+% pullbacks, my antennas go up for sure, and I've got a little pressure on the trigger.
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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
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Mouthofthesouth
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-28
lee county al
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Bull markets work off of totally different rules from bear markets. Bull markets will often climb for long periods of time in the face of bullish sentiment, while bear markets will fall in the face of bearish sentiment. Its all about context, and sentiment numbers often can cost you dearly if you blindly follow them.
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Mouthofthesouth
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-28
lee county al
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Rutben,
The history of QE ending shows that the market doesn't start falling until the pumping officially ends. That's what happened last year and is also reflected in Japan's experience with QE. Maybe this time is different, but the QE data we have so far says don't short before QE ends. And that's about 2 months from now? Otherwise you're betting this time is different, and a lot of folks have found out how dangerous that can be.
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Rutben
Posts: 1414
Incept: 2007-07-27
Phoenix, AZ
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Mouth....I'm with you, but I think you can discount it a little bit by picking stocks that already seem to be topping out. The ten day average of new highs has been rolling over and the 30 day advance/decline for Nasdaq looks like it could go below 1.0 even though we are not far from highs. If I get lucky on the early shorts, then I get more aggressive going forward. I have been on the wrong end of shorts plenty of times so I appreciate the importance of timing.
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Medicdan
Posts: 8028
Incept: 2010-02-11
Scottsdale, AZ
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Quote: No, because the number being used for CPI is cooked. Exactly.
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