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| Claims: Hmmmm.. Do I Believe Them? in forum [Market-Ticker]
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N9lhm
Posts: 92
Incept: 2010-01-28
South Bend, IN
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Some downward impact from President's Day, maybe????????? Aren't government offices closed that day?
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Easytiger
Posts: 186
Incept: 2008-03-22
Houston, TX
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Quote:Some downward impact from President's Day, maybe????????? Aren't government offices closed that day?
Good point. In theory, that should be good enough for a 20% reduction. |
Easytiger
Posts: 186
Incept: 2008-03-22
Houston, TX
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Do have a sense that private employment is mounting somewhat of a comeback. However, the rebound in unemployment should be short lived as government employees begin to hit the dole.
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Randy123
Posts: 5789
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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I believe them. No one left to claim.
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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Vmooper
Posts: 1826
Incept: 2007-11-30
Bailout ville
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With all the adjustments and extended benefits I think only the labor participation chart matters anymore. When that chart shows more people carrying the water and not just drinking it we can believe things are improved. The unit labor rate dropped again today so even if jobs are improving the quality and benefits suck and that means consumer buying power is still shrinking.
Gotta go now because oil is almost green now and what people pay for energy is a real number.
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"If you don't know where you are going, speeding up is not the answer." -Jeff Macke
"If you bail out everyone, nobody gets bailed out." -Jeff Macke
"Those who make peaceful revolution impossible, make violent revolution inevitable." -JFK
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Pezhead
Posts: 42
Incept: 2009-09-22
NC
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"To file an unemployment claim you have to lost a full time job. The low claims files just means there are fewer and fewer people who lost full time jobs. The bulk of the people are working part time and do not qualify to file. The low claims number reflects the terrible job market and is not a positive this time."
-- anyone know if this is accurate?
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We're rich! We broke even! We're in the poor house :-(
-- Simpsons 'Enron'
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Irishblues
Posts: 290
Incept: 2010-12-18
Wisconsin
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Quote:"To file an unemployment claim you have to lost a full time job. The low claims files just means there are fewer and fewer people who lost full time jobs. The bulk of the people are working part time and do not qualify to file. The low claims number reflects the terrible job market and is not a positive this time."
-- anyone know if this is accurate? When a person qualifies for unemployment varies from state to state, but a general rule of thumb is that (A) you can't work more than 20 hours in a week, and (B) your wages have to be under some threshold. From what I recall [when I last got to claim unemployment 7 years ago], if you hit A but not B, you may be able to file but not get paid; if you don't hit A, you can't file even if you hit B. If people are working part-time [over 20 hours], they're precluded from filing. Given the huge increase in the number of part-time workers, your statement makes all kinds of sense. The last sentence is exactly what I've thought for a few years now; we could have claims in the low 300s and it doesn't necessarily mean lots of jobs are being created. In fact, I expect claims to drop to the low 300s and the "experts" claim jobs are being created en masse - and month after month to go by with very tepid job reports and continual claims of "it'll be there next month!" It would be interesting to see how estimates of job creation since mid-2009 [or even back to late 2007] from the experts compare to the actual numbers to see how wildly optimistic they've been. |
Eaglewwit
Posts: 6054
Incept: 2007-11-30
SoCal
Banned
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This is all, I woke up to see the S&P up 20 points, I figured the number was a blowout, possibly below 200k, now I find out that it is only 20k less than the last. Is that even statistically significant?
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Phif
Posts: 228
Incept: 2008-08-06
Atlanta. Ga
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http://blogs.ajc.com/business-beat/2011/....Georgia’s jobless rate again hits all-time high of 10.4 percent 3:33 am March 3, 2011, by Henry Unger Georgia’s unemployment rate once again hit an all-time high of 10.4 percent in January, the state labor department reported Thursday. The December rate, originally reported as 10.2 percent, was revised upward to 10.4 percent, the labor department said. The state’s jobless rate was also 10.4 percent in January 2010. “Georgia’s job market for the past year has basically been flat,” state Labor Commissioner Mark Butler said in a statement. “Although the rate dipped to 10 percent temporarily last summer, for the past seven months it has trended upward.
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3556
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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I was thinking the same thing about Presidens day. Every holiday we have had a significant dip they have sold the public. I find it interesting the total people drawing benefits went up 74,000 with almost a 100K increase in the state and extended claims. That doesn't bode well for either a lower number or a lot of people being added to the employment rolls.
Bloomberg used to have charts that went back 5 years. When they would blow smoke about how good a number was, I would look at those charts. The norm between 2005 and the end of 2007 was in the 320K range, with a big blip for Katrina and one week it went to 350K. We haven't seen 320K in over 3 years and haven't seen 350K, which was a spike peak since Bernbitch and Obama declared a recovery. Remember how bad the Bush economy was supposed to be? This one hasn't made it to the worst of Bush.
I am not impressed with this number, but if last weeks number was accurate, it might be a harbinger of things to come. If this is the normal holiday blip, 400K will probably be broken to the upside.
One thing that would cause a lower number is the laid off employee not ever applying in the first place, because they got another job. There are people out there that do that and this might be why unemployment has been so sticky. The new job don't pay what the old one pays. The government says it does, but the government is being run for the numbers on the Dow, not for the people. We woldn't want Robert Rubin to miss his bonus or Warren to miss a meal would we?
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Trades50
Posts: 4218
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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A 2010 graduate of U of I Urbana in Mechanical Engineering that I know of just landed a job. And his friend. The starting salary was in the mid-60Ks.
Not bad for a new grad with only a couple of summers of interning.
On the other side he must pay back about a $93K school loan at 8%.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Genesis
Posts: 130798
Incept: 2007-06-26
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There's another problem - to file a claim you have to have worked for a significant and unbroken period. If you get a job and then lose it after being laid off for a long period, you can't re-file and don't count the second time.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Asimov
Posts: 104066
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Pezhead: It's definitely a contributing factor.
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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2dogs
Posts: 2941
Incept: 2009-03-25
Land of the Lost
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Trades50 wrote..A 2010 graduate of U of I Urbana in Mechanical Engineering
...he must pay back about a $93K school loan at 8%. Ouch!
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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
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