ADP Employment: More Lies?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-03-02 09:49
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
ADP Employment: More Lies?
 

Gee, what a stunning miss last month, right?

Private-sector employment increased by 217,000 from January to February on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from December 2010 to January 2011 was revised up to 189,000 from the previously reported increase of 187,000.

Revised up?

Surely you jest.  Oh wait - you're not jesting.

According to the ADP Report, employment in the service-providing sector rose by 202,000 in February, marking thirteen consecutive months of employment gains. Employment in the goods-producing sector rose 15,000, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Manufacturing employment rose 20,000, the fifth consecutive monthly gain.

Employment among large businesses, defined as those with 500 or more workers, increased by 13,000 while employment among medium-size businesses, defined as those with between 50 and 499 workers, increased by 104,000. Employment among small-size businesses, defined as those with fewer than 50 workers, increased by 100,000.

Uh huh.

2010-12 139159
2011-01 137599

That's the employed number from the household survey last month.  From 139,159 (thousands, so that's 139 million) to 137,599.  That would be a loss of 1.56 million jobs.

And by the way, this is the running series on that from July of 2010:

2010-7 140134
2010-8 139919
2010-9 139715
2010-10 139749
2010-11 139415
2010-12 139159
2011-01 137599

Employment is increasing eh?

Hmmmm...... not according to the household survey.  Not the claims of employers, but rather those of people doing the actual working.

We'll see what Friday brings from the Bureau of Lies and Scams (BLS)

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info ADP Employment: More Lies? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Irishsamurai
Posts: 1150
Incept: 2008-11-03
Green
GA
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Easiest way to fix the UE-3 percentage ... shrink the numerator ...

Dishonest. Yep.

Will the MFM report on it? Nope.

All part of the Obama '12 re-election campaign.

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“Why is it the ship beats the waves when the waves are so many and the ship is one? The reason is that the ship has a purpose.” - Churchill
Blackswan
Posts: 5564
Incept: 2007-11-06
Gold
Just outside of Philly
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Getting hard to cover up the fact that the supposed recovery is actually a complete failure.

Here are some more anomalies in the recovery. This is just the last few days and ignoring the dozens of counties, school districts, and munis annoucements of cutting thousands of workers almost everyday.


IBM job-cut count reaches 612; local numbers not disclosed

http://www.poughkeepsiejournal.com/artic....

Harley Davidson 145 Union Jobs
http://blogs.pitch.com/plog/2011/03/harl....

Allegiant Air to lay off 165 workers
http://www.ktnv.com/story/14167517/alleg....

Book manufacturer to cut 110 jobs with closure of Stoughton plant - Quincy, MA - The Patriot Ledger http://www.patriotledger.com/archive/x94....

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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Green A True American Patriot!
Imaginationland
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Wait, we lost 1.5 mil jobs from Dec to Jan? How do you achieve that number without deliberately trying?

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Etz
Posts: 13890
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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The only thing more hollow than Obama's Potemkin economy is the man himself.
Quote:
Employers in the U.S. announced more job cuts in February than in the same month last year, led by a surge at government agencies.

Planned firings increased 20 percent to 50,702 last month from February 2010, the first year-over-year gain since May 2009, according to a report today from Chicago-based Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. Announcements at federal, state and local government offices almost tripled from last year.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-02....



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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Yaldor
Posts: 2687
Incept: 2008-05-17

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Do I understand correctly:

Employment numbers are down according to household survey, employer survey - but all the web sites and all the media in the world report it as up and no one tell the truth ?

I am lost in all these numbers (full disclosure: Bsc in math and CS, advanced degree in engineering.) yes I am lost. can someone present the full numbers vs the false numbers in a way that a layman could see it ?

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Frat
Posts: 1935
Incept: 2009-07-15
Silver
NKY
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Wow. Looks like even the market doesn't believe the numbers. We'll see what happens about 3:00 though.

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We're ****ed. Where's Henry Bowman when you need him?
Txdomer
Posts: 1254
Incept: 2007-11-07
Green
Ding-dong, the Fed is dead!
Banned
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If ADP uses the same businesses in their survey every month, one has to wonder if they just ignore businesses that shut down, i.e. report no payroll data. Perhaps they just add another business to the survey in that case and don't count that loss of jobs.

If they generate a new sample each month, and they only select businesses that are currently reporting (i.e. still in business) then they most definitely would be missing employment losses due to businesses closing.


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Expres12
Posts: 121
Incept: 2008-04-08

Connecticut
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I owned a small business that used ADP for payroll. While I had to put new hires on the payroll immediately (so they'd be paid in a timely fashion), I was often slow, very slow to take terminated employees off the payroll (I had an assistant on the rolls two years after she retired because she would fill in if available). If I thought there was a remote chance of the person coming back full time or even as a temp fill in, I left them on my ADP roster. If this is a widespread practice, this will of course distort the numbers to positive side.

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"We have failed bankers giving advice to failed regulators on how to deal with failed assets. How can it result in anything but failure?"

William K. Black
Tesla
Posts: 15542
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
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Just found out that one of my neighbors who works for the state was laid off this morning, along with about a third of her department.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Xqqme
Posts: 626
Incept: 2009-01-09
Green
Ohio
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Thanks, Yaldor. You made me feel so much better!
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