Crack-Smoking Is A National Sport
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-25 12:33
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread
Crack-Smoking Is A National Sport
 

Nowhere is it more-evident than in "reports" like this:

"We expect strong growth in the world economy until 2050, with average real GDP growth rates of 4.6 percent per annum until 2030 and 3.8 percent per annum between 2030 and 2050," Buiter wrote in a market research.

"As a result, world GDP should rise in real PPP-adjusted terms from $72 trillion in 2010 to $380 trillion dollars in 2050," he wrote.

Really?

"Real" means, incidentally, ex-inflation.  (The usually-reported numbers are nominal GDP, which doesn't adjust for constant purchasing power, that is, "constant dollars".)  That adjustment by itself is somewhat problematic as I have repeatedly documented, as the actual price of things experienced by the public is often wildly different than that "reported" in the so-called "official" inflation statistics.

Here, for example, is the one-year national gasoline price chart from "Gas Buddy":

That's a 23.5% increase. The most-recent CPI index shows about 13.5% (January to January) which looks pretty close.  The problem is that the CPI assumes you spend just 4.8% of your income on gasoline.

For someone who makes close to minimum wage, or $18,000 a year, their after-FICA income is about $1,400 monthly.  That allows $67 a month for gasoline.  At $3.31/gallon you can buy about 20 gallons of gas, which is roughly one fill-up in most mid-sized cars.

If your car gets 30mpg (and most older vehicles do not, especially in city driving) then you can go 600 miles in one month on that fuel.  There are 20 working days (on average) in a month, so one can not travel more than 30 miles - both ways - in a workday.

Oh yeah, they also assume you spend just $28.70 a month in acquisition cost on a used vehicle (that is, if you buy a used car and keep it for two years before it dies, on the very bottom of the car-buying pile, you spend a mere $500 on that car's acquisition) and a laughable $21 monthly on maintenance, including tires, oil changes, repairs and parts.

All of these figures are, of course, laughable for people in the lower income strata, which is why ramps in commodity prices are so destructive to the standard of living for many Americans, say much less poor people in other nations.

But the real problem in the cited "REAL GDP" projections is that we've learned exactly nothing in terms of the underlying scam when it comes to the fundamental mathematical laws of exponents. 

See, underlying every dollar of GDP is a unit of energy output.  It cannot be otherwise.  The dollar you spend on a new dishwasher or washing machine requires not only funds for purchase (which ultimately is, in part, comprised of the energy and raw materials to construct the item) but in addition it requires energy on a continuing basis in order for it to be useful.

It gets even worse when we start talking about industrial output.  Nearly 13% of all energy use in the United States goes into two places - chemical production and petroleum refining.  Those two sectors in turn produce the materials that we need in order to feed the rest of our energy beast.  Residential consumption of energy is a bit over 20% of the total, with transportation being close to 30%.

Now scale all of this up by a factor of five!

In a word: How?

I don't believe it.  Now perhaps ten years from now we'll have our "First Contact" moment, figure out how to build a warp engine, and everything will change.  Perhaps.

But I can't make plans around the appearance of Zefram Cochrane.  I must instead look toward both what we're capable of right here and now, along with what a reasonable man believes we will be able to achieve in terms of technological capacity over the next forty years.

There are many who are buoyed by Moore's Law when it comes to the process of computing power since the 1950s.  But one should note, with great care, that the limits of Moore's Law have stunted continued progress in that regard, driving us toward not faster processors but rather toward arrays of slower ones.

Why?

For the same reason that all these other ethereal claims of exponential growth get in trouble: Mathematical facts.

One should be very careful about attempting to extrapolate exponential growth, because it is a mathematical impossibility for it to continue indefinitely.  But of course nobody does.  This is how we wind up with ridiculously-rosy projections for things like School Board budgets, growth projections in cities and similar things. 

Now we have crack-smoking "analysts" telling us that we're going to multiply the current GDP in the world by five but they present no plan to do so given the resources - particular but not only in energy - that we have available to us.

Best of luck on this one folks.

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User Info Crack-Smoking Is A National Sport in forum [Market-Ticker]
Asimov
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Heheh.

Zefram Cochrane was working after a nuclear war that decimated the population.

Fun fun. Lets hope we don't have to wait for that.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Pensicostreet
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Just love the part where they predict GDP between the years 2030-50. Nobody but nobody could predict something like that, much less 10 years out. They must really think people are clueless.

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We are all Greece now.
Anti
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Not your main point exactly but I expect they are thinking the growth comes from the undeveloped countries and the developed countries and US stagnate in terms of both population and energy consumption.

So they get 5 times minuscule and we get 1 times and the blended average won't be 5 times in terms of energy consumption.

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Genesis
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Oh yes it will.

For the net-net to go up by a factor of five you need to increase energy production by that same factor of five.

How you distribute it doesn't matter; it still has to happen.

It's not going to.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fugitivekind
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None of these chief economists were smart enough to foresee the housing crash and they expect me to believe their forecasts 20-40 years out. Pleeaassee..

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"I refuse to leave our children with a debt they cannot repay, and that means taking responsibility right now, in this administration, for getting our spending under control."
Barack Obama, Feb. 29, 2009

Reason: typos
Throxxofvron
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Don't worry, Karl; We won't be driving cars much longer -word is that We're all getting Jetpacks real soon.

The only drawback is that your ass gets kinda hot...

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Nomullet
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At least Warren Buffet put the money where his mouth is by selling those long term spx puts.

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Don't confuse clear thinking with simplistic thinking.
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Spanktron9
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Throxx-

I'm pretty sure her ass is hot with or without the jetpack. smiley

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"Strong people are harder to kill than weak people, and more useful in general" - Mark Rippetoe
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Sean
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Speaking of gas. My corner Circle K went up $.15 cents between 5:30pm mst 2/24/11 and 9am mst 2/25/11!

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* I think Ann Barnhardt is more and more right. God help us!
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Widgeon
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KD, Haven't You Heard? Inflation is ZERO from Now to Eternity.
Widgeon
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Sean,

See, it's working already! Rejoice!
Captainkidd
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Quote:
Speaking of gas. My corner Circle K went up $.15 cents between 5:30pm mst 2/24/11 and 9am mst 2/25/11!


I saw the same thing here, yesterday, at a convenience store called RaceTrac.

Yesterday Morning Drive to work: Regular Unleaded @ $2.929
Yesterday Afternoon Drive Home: Regular Unleaded @ $2.999
This Morning on my way to work: Regular Unleaded @ $3.089

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford

Rebbepete
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Owings Mills, MD
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I worked for a daily newspaper in the mid 80's. They built a big new production facility based on extrapolating demand. Nobody asked us dumb ole' engineers, but we noticed that, considering the low population growth in the area, they were banking on everyone in the area buying 5-6 newspapers a day by the year 2000.

Needless to say, they were stuck with "a little bit" of excess capacity.

Moral of the story: S-curves look a lot like exponentials for a while.

Application to this post: The world energy budget is an S-curve. Slap! Doh! We just don't know the asymptote precisely, but I think we have a rough idea.

Good book: "The Logic of Failure" by Dormer, in which he demonstrates how poorly humans do with non-linear systems.

As every engineer knows: Every system is only piecewise linear, and that's with tiny little pieces.
Trades50
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The analysts view everything from a different persecutive. Very easy to think that everyone else lives like you do.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Mcmwest
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Maybe Citi would like to bankroll my production facility for home use over- unity electric generators. You can build them from 2x4s and magnets. They will never need buy energy ever again.

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According to NBER the recession ended in June 2009 so if you're broke and out of a job its all in your head.- Jay Leno
Mari
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Ever notice how what we "expect" isn't exactly what really occurs? I "expect" that in a few years when these predictions have 2,000,000,000 holes blown in them that, if they acknowledge it at all, we'll see the infamous word "unexpectedly" when they describe why it didn't occur the way they said it would.

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Mannfm11
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I thought Buiter had some credibility? Wait long enough and they start lying don't they? I think we have a good clue that the growth figures in China and India are stretched at best. Building stuff you can't use isn't growth or GDP. It is a loss. As long as the rest of the world shows up with the assets, China can print money to the moon and run this house of cards. There is a reason Bernanke is acting like an idiot and it is deeper than the US needs to sell bonds. Maybe it is the NYC crooks, the Peking crooks and the London crooks, along with the crooks in Paris, Switzerland, Rome and Berlin need a bailout as well.

Lets put it this way. It won't happen with the current energy nonsense. I don't believe so much in the peak energy game as I do the **** your neighbor energy market. There are trillions of barrels of oil at some price. There is natural gas out the ass now that they have learned how to tap shale for gas and even more if they tap methane hydrate in the future. There are the atomic materials KD mentions all the time. But there is this seesaw pricing that is being run by the bankers, where confidence in long term investment cannot be sustained, because they are more interested in gaming the markets than a long run policy.

Look where the oil companies are trading now? Who do you think was long all this crap? Goldman Sachs, the same people that are gaming an oversupplied oil market. Pump the oil markets, dump the stock. Short the stock, crash the oil markets, cover the shorts, go long and game the oil markets. When the strategy blows up, TBTF comes in with a rescue. In the meantime, everyone else that buys in gets ****ed and loses confidence.

The growth is a fiction because the credit around the world is a fiction. If they can't find a bag holder, those that are incurring the liabilities and burning their cash to make the bag are going to be the bag holders. In the meantime, the rest of us are merely going to get sore and red in the ass. The credit pyramids, the intentional inflation cannot hold up, as the cost of capital has to rise to reflect the inflationary expectations. These are natural mathematical models that cannot be sustained.

Buiter joins a long list of pundits the world would be better off if they expired. The world isn't headed for growth, but for feudalism. Sharia law is a feudal system, not a free system. TSA is a big brother, herd the serf system, not a free system. Wall Street games are feudalism, managing and looting the serfs. Growth won't take place because the system is set up to loot the very customers that would make the system go. Expert liars won't make this happen.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mortgageguymn
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Power will come from burning the wood of 2,000 foot tall elm trees.
Mo
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Quote:
The world isn't headed for growth, but for feudalism.


Tenant consumers.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Ostriches
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Any individual with any amount of sense would readily recognize that they simply could not predict what will happen in such time span and would rightly refuse to make the prediction in the first place.

So, he is either dumb **** or a POS liar trying to sell something.

Captainkidd
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Pasadena, Texas
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My father was born in 1917, in the hills of Arkansas, and grew up as the son of a share cropper, following crops in Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri.

Who would have thought that, 100 years later, his great grandchildren would be looking at their own future, and seeing that life in store for themselves?

***********************************************

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A lawyer with a briefcase can steal more than a thousand men with guns. --Mario Puzo

It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning. -- Henry Ford
End_the_bubbles
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This is beyond crack smoking, this is sheer insanity!

PUT HIM HERE:

inline

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Winstonsmith2009
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Watch clueless interviewing a liar:

http://www.thedailyshow.com/watch/thu-fe....

What is scary is that even THIS garbage is ABOVE the general level of discussion for the majority of the US population. It would be funny if it wasn't so pitiful. Still, I can't resist laughing while watching.
3600
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"Don't try to be a great man, just be a man. And let history make its own judgments

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you're good at stealing and you're good at lying now lets see how good you're at flying... jump you ****ers....Gene Burnett
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