| User Info
| Goldman Confirms Tickerguy's Economics Call in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Strega
Posts: 46
Incept: 2010-11-08
Winchester, VA
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Onelegged
Posts: 265
Incept: 2009-11-13
NW Colorado
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I just hope I am standing on both feet when this poop storm happens.
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The light at the end of this tunnel is a train.
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Jtmo3
Posts: 679
Incept: 2009-07-31
Missouri
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Hey, oil and gas off their daily highs and moving lower. Stock market in the green. Saudi is gonna raise crude production. Gold and silver down. Jobless claims down. Orders up. What's wrong with you people? Don't you know we're in a recovery that can't be stopped. Just a hiccup for a couple days and we're now off to the races again. Get with the program.
BTW...who in their right freakin mind would listen and/or believe a damn thing that comes out of goldman?
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Taint
Posts: 238
Incept: 2008-12-24
texas
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Karl and others,
Not following the math... Why wouldn't a 1.7 trillion reduction in borrowing not reduce GDP by same amount - what drives the compounding GS and you reference?
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Genesis
Posts: 130678
Incept: 2007-06-26
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The follow-through from that lack of activity.
I don't buy a car. That's $20,000 that doesn't get spent.
But that means the suppliers don't build the radios, etc that go into the car. They lay people off, and those people don't spend either.
There's a multiplier effect. I don't believe it's as high as Goldman does, by the way.
But if you accept Goldman's argument then you have to also accept that the deficit spending is currently responsible for half of GDP.
And if that doesn't turn you white with fear, well....
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
Incept: 2008-10-13
Arizona via California
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And everyone said: AMEN!
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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
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Eli
Posts: 7168
Incept: 2007-09-10
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It is coming hard and fast now, and hell is coming with it.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Ktrosper
Posts: 1498
Incept: 2010-04-06
ft collins co
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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
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Rickysa
Posts: 1637
Incept: 2007-08-22
Southern Pines, NC
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Not that I have doubted KD's assessment over these last years for a moment (and spent that time prepping), but seeing this gave me chills.
It really is coming...
****.
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Blackswan
Posts: 5562
Incept: 2007-11-06
Just outside of Philly
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Yeah it's coming.. but.. Don't worry we have Canadian troops to help keep the order when tshtf. http://www.canada.com/topics/news/story.....Canada, U.S. agree to use each other’s troops in civil emergencies Canada and the U.S. have signed an agreement that paves the way for the militaries from either nation to send troops across each other’s borders during an emergency, but some are questioning why the Harper government has kept silent on the deal.
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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
Hugh Hendry
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Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
Banned
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They wouldn't last 10 minutes down here.
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Schoolsout
Posts: 42
Incept: 2008-06-29
Awendaw, South Carolina
Banned
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and the reason QE will continue...again, I see no end to it with the current clowns in office listening to the likes of GS, et al.
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Eli
Posts: 7168
Incept: 2007-09-10
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Yup, Rickysa. It is clear now to everyone that all we have done with Ben, the Congress, and the ****ing lying thieving treacherous murderous **** banksters is further inflate an absolutely unsustainable bubble of fraud. And inflating that bubble for the last three years, has now only magnified the problem. The idiot in charge have managed to turn "little boy" into "Tsar Bomba", the only thing that is going to be left is shadows on the ground.  This game has been going on for thirty years, it has always been about extending and out running the clock. Time is up.
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If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever.
George Orwell
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Rickysa
Posts: 1637
Incept: 2007-08-22
Southern Pines, NC
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Eli, I spend all day at work here. Yesterday, I almost threw up when I got home, what with the Middle East and our economic situation, before I got to the wine rack. Wife got home a bit later, and I'm on the sofa with this glazed look, and she asks "what the hell is wrong?". I said, "it really is coming... it's all but here".
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3535
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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I don't believe Goldman says anything that isn't a self serving lie. If it was 12 noon and they came out and said the sun was shining to get you to look, I would have to wonder what they stole while I was looking.
Goldman puts Federal spending in their pockets. Goldman puts federal spending in their pockets. Don't forget that, which is why I wrote it twice. The $100 billion bonuses come straight out of DC. Beat earnings comes straight out of DC. The lies come out of Goldman
Maybe my math is wrong, but $60 billion is about .4% of GDP. Screw the multiplier effect. That is made up bull****. Cut out all government and the supposition would be we go to ZERO. The supposition if we balanced the budget would then be that GDP would contract 52%. This means government must hold it when I go pee?
I think spending a few billion to hire some of their talent to jump off the top of one of those buildings might be some good spending, seeing as we can't get rid of them any other way. These guys are in the manufacture of debt. Every dollar they manufacture costs us $10.
Gen, there isn't a multiplier effect. If the money was there, it would be used for something else. There is just a heroin addiction to sucking the bankers tit. We were generating $5 trillion of new debt when this crap hit. The socalled multiplier effect was based on spending divided by the income tax or tax rate. This means that if government could shrink itself to 1% of GDP then deficit spend 1%, it would boost the economy 99%. It wasn't nothing more than a bankers lie to get us in permanent debt.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Mikpaq
Posts: 418
Incept: 2009-02-26
Maine
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This will continue until someone with balls becomes president. Someone like Chris Christie. It doesn't have to be him, just someone willing to do what he has done in NJ so far.
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Remember, pillage first, then burn.
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Adp
Posts: 83
Incept: 2009-10-16
California
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Rikysa, I hear you. That was my day yesterday. Not just here but on lots of other sites. Constantly finding more things that made me want to puke. I kept going out of my office and looking around at people laughing and going about their business. I felt like an earthquake was happening and only I could feel it. I was dazed and stunned all day. And wake up to the news about Syria with the Iranian warships in it's ports. Great.
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Ponzi_unit
Posts: 8093
Incept: 2007-09-05
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Comstock Partners agree: Quote:
http://www.comstockfunds.com/default.asp....
Underlying all of these problems is the massive debt, both government and household, built up over the past few decades, particularly in the most recent one. Household debt has averaged about 55% of GDP over the last 60 years, but recently peaked at 98%, and is now down to 91%. As a percent of disposable personal income, household debt has averaged 75%, with a recent top of 130% and is currently at 117%. Similarly, government debt has averaged 66% of GDP and is now at a peak 108%, as government debt has recently risen more than private debt has dropped.
The problem, as everyone belatedly realizes, is that, as a nation we have far too much debt, both public and private. But debt is the fuel that enables economic growth. Without an increasing amount of debt the economy cannot grow and, in fact, shrinks. The hope is that by substituting government debt for household debt we can get the economy back on a normal growth path while also getting consumer balance sheets back into shape.
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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
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Gamma
Posts: 5547
Incept: 2008-01-20
Northern CA
Online
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I'm not sure it's a good thing to have one's thesis confirmed by known lying c**ksuckers.
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This stuff we're going through, this is nothing compared to the Middle Ages.
They told me if I voted for John McCain, an idiot would be a heartbeat away from the presidency. Sure enough...
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Genesis
Posts: 130678
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Mann: I don't believe their numbers FOR ONE SECOND.
The ticker puts forward the counterpoint however..... which is what you use when someone tries to cite it.
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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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Mannfm11
Posts: 3535
Incept: 2009-02-28
DFW, Tx
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I'm glad you don't. I think your charts hit the mess right on the head. There is another tact though that Steve Keen has come up with that I think has some relevance What he says is that the US became addicted to 30% of GDP debt. He uses aggregate demand as a factor and it includes the demand for assets. The extra debt is what kept the asset bubble inflated. Thus AD=GDP + increase in debt. When the bubble broke, increase in debt disappeared. It came out of the stock market, the housing market and the economy. But, lets say that last year debt was flat. That deducted from last year. This year if it was flat, it would have no effect. Keen calls himself a neo-Keynesian. This is different than the neo-classical model the bankers have sold us. We are looking at a virtual religion when it comes to economics. The bankers, the neo-classicals and the socialists are all pushing to prove their God isn't the false one. There aren't many of us that believe we are going to have to find a reset button. I am one that does. We all know that it can't go on this way for long. I give it 10 years max if it works this time. I sense that money printing in the realm of maybe 3% of GDP combined with the end to credit banking endowed by the government (government backed fractional reserve/capital multiple)might be part of a successful plan. If it is necessary for the money supply to expand, that part of the model shouldn't be owned by the bankers. A free monetary expansion of 2% to 3% of GDP might end deficit spending as long as debt is limited. This idea we are going to spend ourselves to prosperity and pyramid debt to the moon is going to be proven false. The end of civilization could be at hand, as those that are supposed to know are going to find out they don't. The primary function of these blogs is to share ideas in my book. I do believe that if you give the people cabbage, they will make coleslaw. But, they will borrow, do dope, drink, smoke and have dangerous sex until they have to stop as well.
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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
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Djrichard
Posts: 134
Incept: 2008-08-03
Raleigh, NC
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This is what I posted over at Business Insider in their thread on this topic. http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-s....Quote:
GOP of course won't believe that austerity isn't a good thing. It's in their nature to believe that segments of population deserve austerity, ipso facto, austerity is good for the economy. How cruel for them that it isn't so.
Democrats are craftier. They simply sell the population into debt slavery to the debt providers.
And really, the democrats have the advantage in this regard in that the marketplace really wants what the democrats are enabling. The marketplace wants us in debt peonage. That's why fundamentally Goldman Sach will always be on the side of the democrats. The GOP will be a flash in the pan every now and then as we flagellate ourselves, but really the marketplace for debt peonage always wins.
The only solution is to redefine the marketplace. We need to stop debt peonage. What is the marketplace that puts us in debt peonage? Well, who are the debt providers? Certainly there's the banks. But there's one set of banks that are ultimately at the head of it (shall I say fountainhead?), and that's the Federal Reserve. At the core, the Federal Reserve is simply a debt provider. And the way they provide debt is crafty: they simply need rubes who think they are "playahs" who think they can screw other rubes in the marketplace by naked short selling the Fed's currency. This works until the supply of rubes gets exhausted and the ponzi that was built up crashes instead. At least until another round of rubes/playahs are found for the next ponzi. {I don't think this is what Schumpeter had in mind when he was extolling the virtues of capitalism in the form of creative destruction.} In this game, some rubes win, but a larger number end up indebted. The Fed never loses and neither does their channel-to-market; the banks are fine as long as the rubes bail them out. Hard to believe we inflict this on ourselves.
Maybe it's time to put a stop to this game. Let's take away the Fed Reserve's punch bowl. Let's put the power to issue currency back where it constitutionally and properly belongs which is with the Gov. Instead of borrowing money from the Fed, we have the Goverment spending it into circulation and taxing it to re-circulate it. We pay our own way and we get away from liquidty pumps based on naked short selling. We'll still have "playahs" who think they can build their empires; but empires in the Gov can always be changed by the populace. In this context regime change between democrats and GOP (or whatever parties there are) will be dynamic and functional and serve the population's interests again. In contrast to empires of debt which are pernicious and survive regime change every time unless eradicated.
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Your love is sufficient
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Schwantz
Posts: 5815
Incept: 2007-11-12
Toronto
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Quote:Virginia House Joint Resolution No. 557 - Alternative to Federal Reserve Notes I would love to purchase said alternative notes using CAD. Quote:Don't worry we have Canadian troops to help keep the order when tshtf. So if there's ever a civil "event" in the USA like Egypt or Libya, I wonder what that means for CDN troops? Quote:Goldman puts Federal spending in their pockets. I have a Yahoo profile called "goldmanstoleurtaxmoney" that I use for posting on the Yahoo boards sometimes. lol
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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
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Mouthofthesouth
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-28
lee county al
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All this is well known, even to many bulls. Its all about timing or this information is useless. Ponzi pumps usually last about 4 or 5 years, so we are about half way through this one. We haven't even sniffed an outbreak of LBOs. And they are on their way. Companys have cash stacked to the sky and are ready to leverage it up. After the LBO insanity runs for about a year to 6 months, then the bears will have a chance. History shows until then, stocks will climb and any trouble will be met with whispers of QE3. Look at it like '95-'00: earnings exploded and stocks shot to the Moon. PEs expanded far beyond anyone's comprehension. Don't think it can't happen again. When the inevitability of QE3 seeps in, get a seat for another stock buying party. We've underestimated these people once: don't do it again.
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