Bernanke, You Stupid Bastard
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-21 21:02
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
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Bernanke, You Stupid Bastard
 

Yes, you.

And Trichet, and the rest of the Central Bank fools.

But especially you, Bernanke.

There's dumb and then there's really dumb.  Let's take a short walk back down history lane.

You were sure there was no housing bubble.

Then you were sure it wouldn't pop.

Then you were sure when the subprime problem hit, that it wouldn't cause a recession.

Then you were sure you had it under control with Bear Stearns' hedge funds.

Then you were sure you had it under control with Bear Stearns itself.

Then you were sure it was under control with Lehman, even though you had to know Citibank and others were refusing their collateral in the repo market.

You were sure QE would support higher bond prices - and lower yields.  The exact opposite thing happened.

You were sure QE2 would suppress long end yields.  The exact opposite thing happened. 

Oh yeah, you made excuses both times, but in fact you publicly said that in both cases the exact opposite thing would happen that did.

Now let's look at what happened just today.

Oil went up almost $7 today for the WTI contract.  For each dollar that crude oil rises, we transfer roughly $95 billion (estimates vary from $90-100) outside of the United States.

That's a direct hit to GDP.

In ONE DAY the entire impact of your so-called "QE2" was ERASED.

(As an aside, yes, I can do the math on the direct import numbers; the argument here is on the total economic impact, which is as noted above.  Estimates there vary somewhat, but they're centered around $90-100 billion/year/dollar increase.)

Your entire gambit and what you sold to Congress and President Obama was that you could "restart" credit expansion with your policies.  Implicit in your policy was a need to do so, because without it you cannot succeed.  The World Economic Forum at Davos released a paper saying that we needed, collectively, to add one hundred trillion dollars of new debt to the system to support the paltry growth numbers you and your economists are putting up.  Worse, the CBO stuck up numbers in the TBAC report that show another doubling of Federal Debt in the next nine years and a rough quadrupling of debt service costs to $800 billion, implying a paltry 3% blended rate.

We had the collapse starting in 2007 because people couldn't afford the debt they already had and yet your entire scheme, to succeed, requires doubling all systemic debt AGAIN.

So how are you going to do it Ben? 

Who's going to take on that debt, and how are they going to service it?

You know damn well it can't work, and won't.  You also know damn well you've goaded and prodded the Federal Government into taking on $4.5 trillion in debt we cannot afford, or nearly 30% of GDP.

How are you going to take that back off Bernanke?  You keep being asked this, but all you say is that you're confident "you have the tools." 

Uh huh. 

You don't have jack and you know damn well you can't pull your pump-job back one iota without laying bare on the table the fact that the Federal Government is supporting 12% of GDP with borrowed money.  If it disappears we have an instant Depression worse than the 1930s. 

The bad news is that if you keep this crap up it will disappear by force of the market, there's not a damn thing you can do to prevent it, and that day is rapidly approaching.

EVERY prediction you've made about the economy over the last five years has been wrong. 

All of them. 

The market is rising only because you're "promising" infinite leverage

But infinite leverage means certain financial ruin if you're wrong about external forces.  And the economy is not a closed system under your control.  You cannot control other nations, you cannot control commodity speculators and you cannot control other central banks and politicians.  You think you can force China off their peg, but they can suppress riots longer than we can.  You think you can keep printing but now Egypt has gone down, Libya is collapsing and if Saudi Arabia folds you're instantly ****ED and so are the rest of us.

Never mind that it's not just the Middle East.  What if Venezuela folds?  Mexico goes feral with their drug war?  How about South Korea, which now has how many banks closed due to runs?

The longer you keep this crap up the worse the instability will become.  Eventually something will break that's important, and then it's too late.

You can't win this game Bernanke.  And the longer you keep trying to protect the banks that should have been shut down and taken into receivership in 2007 the more damage you're going to do.  When the history books are written on this catastrophe your name is going to be featured in bright lights as the personal architect and chief jackass who pontificated that he knew it all because he studied The Great Depression.

Yeah, you studied it all right.  And now you're duplicating the mistakes made then, writ even larger.

There are no statesmen left in this nation when it comes to Congress.  Not one who will haul your ass in front of them by force of subpoena, put your clear and public record of "accuracy" in front of you and then demand that you justify your twisting of the clear English language to come up with "2% inflation" as your "interpretation" of STABLE PRICES.

You're going to fail Bernanke.  You're failing right now.  You've destroyed one nation's government and this evening, as I write this, a second is falling apart.  The madman behind the second, Qaddafi, has apparently ordered his military to strafe civilians, murdering hundreds.

But behind it all, your policies and those of your cronies, believing in an indefinite Ponzi Scheme of exponential debt without bound, are responsible for every bit of what's happening today worldwide - and what is to come tomorrow.

The only way you can stop it is to admit you were wrong, pull liquidity and allow the insolvent institutions to collapse.  And collapse they will - all of them.  I'm convinced you know that too.  And I'm also convinced that there's three words you will never utter so long as you infest Washington DC: I ****ed up.

So here we sit as Americans, with no solution.  There is nobody in Congress or The Administration that has the balls to stop you, and you're too much of a douche to admit you blew it and do what should have been done three years ago. 

As a result, all we have left is to be prepared for what's to come.

It's not going to be pretty, and I hope Americans are ready for it.

Congratulations Ben Bernnake.  Your place in history is secure, and I'm sure Beelzebub thanks you daily for your cooperation. 

Some day I'm quite sure you'll meet him face-to-face.

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Randy123
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And it will end up costing Americans lives, likely through warfare cleaning up the mess around the world....It really is an incredibly disturbing time in our history. Great ticker Karl.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Starvingartist
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Puff The Magic Dragon
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$7? What did I miss?


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"The only solution that is mathematically sound is politically impossible.
All the should's in the world ain't gonna change that."
Wyocowboy
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I'm disappointed. I was hoping you would come down hard on him.....

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An excuse is nothing more than an explanation of failure. Churchill
A government which robs Peter to pay Paul can always
depend on the support of Paul. George Bernard Shaw
Bohemian
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Bernanke, you knew. It was planned. Study more history you pile of trash, IF you can read.

Quote:
September 1929
"There is no cause to worry. The high tide of prosperity will continue." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury.

October 14, 1929
"Secretary Lamont and officials of the Commerce Department today denied rumors that a severe depression in business and industrial activity was impending, which had been based on a mistaken interpretation of a review of industrial and credit conditions issued earlier in the day by the Federal Reserve Board." — New York Times

December 5, 1929
"The Government's business is in sound condition." — Andrew W. Mellon, Secretary of the Treasury

December 28, 1929
"Maintenance of a general high level of business in the United States during December was reviewed today by Robert P. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as an indication that American industry had reached a point where a break in New York stock prices does not necessarily mean a national depression." — Associated Press dispatch.

January 13, 1930
"Reports to the Department of Commerce indicate that business is in a satisfactory condition, Secretary Lamont said today." - News item.

January 21, 1930
"Definite signs that business and industry have turned the corner from the temporary period of emergency that followed deflation of the speculative market were seen today by President Hoover. The President said the reports to the Cabinet showed the tide of employment had changed in the right direction." - News dispatch from Washington.

January 24, 1930
"Trade recovery now complete President told. Business survey conference reports industry has progressed by own power. No Stimulants Needed! Progress in all lines by the early spring forecast." - New York Herald Tribune.

March 8, 1930
"President Hoover predicted today that the worst effect of the crash upon unemployment will have been passed during the next sixty days." - Washington Dispatch.

May 1, 1930
"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed the worst and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There is one certainty of the future of a people of the resources, intelligence and character of the people of the United States - that is, prosperity." - President Hoover

June 29, 1930
"The worst is over without a doubt." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

August 29, 1930
"American labor may now look to the future with confidence." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

September 12, 1930
"We have hit bottom and are on the upswing." - James J. Davis, Secretary of Labor.

October 16, 1930
"Looking to the future I see in the further acceleration of science continuous jobs for our workers. Science will cure unemployment." - Charles M. Schwab.

October 20, 1930
"President Hoover today designated Robert W. Lamont, Secretary of Commerce, as chairman of the President's special committee on unemployment." - Washington dispatch.

October 21, 1930
"President Hoover has summoned Colonel Arthur Woods to help place 2,500,000 persons back to work this winter." - Washington Dispatch

November 1930
"I see no reason why 1931 should not be an extremely good year." - Alfred P. Sloan, Jr., General Motors Co.

January 20, 1931
"The country is not in good condition." - Calvin Coolidge.

June 9, 1931
"The depression has ended." - Dr. Julius Klein, Assistant Secretary of Commerce.


http://www.safehaven.com/article/7107/th....



Dates said to unemployment rates.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depre....




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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin

Reason: added graphic
Jamesbond
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So, IOW, on balance, Bernanke has been a net positive force in the US and global economies?
Bearshort
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.

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"How long to the point of know return?"
Enemies of the State: Bernanke, Geithner, Frank, Dodd, Greenspan, Paulson.
Bohemian
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Jamesbond wrote..
So, IOW, on balance, Bernanke has been a net positive force in the US and global economies?


?

Genesis wrote..
But behind it all, your policies and those of your cronies, believing in an indefinite Ponzi Scheme of exponential debt without bound, are responsible for every bit of what's happening today worldwide - and what is to come tomorrow.

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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
Mo
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Pa.
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Look at the list of Bernanke's actions during the bubble and after it popped, and he's either stupid or insane. Lately I'm thinking it's the latter.

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Welcome to Pottersville
Ponzi_unit
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Ouch!

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Taxpayers witnessed a crime and stayed around long enough to get charged with it.
Dysmas
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I am going to sleep so sound tonight,safe and snug in my bed....knowing Barry Obama is in charge and Hillary is at the State Dept. handling the affairs of our great nation.

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Inside at last
Azbob
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I sent an email to my Rep 21st district, Smith couple weeks a go. I was explicit that the Bernank had to go and get someone to get us out of the mess. 2 weeks and I haven't heard anything back. So that leads me to believe congress doesn't know where to start to fix this mess.
2dogs
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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
Brianm57
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Seattle
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Why are WTI and Brent Prices so Different?


http://ourfiniteworld.com/2011/02/19/why....
Asimov
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Online
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Thank you. Nice.

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Andysvw
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What if this is exactly what they want?
Wawawa
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San Diego, CA
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You missed to mention that BB is an agent of banking cartel and that explains why he has been doing what is it that he has been doing. His wrong doings are not due to lack knowledge as it is part of his mission of protecting the interest of banking gang. That is ugly truth that he will never admit.

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RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :)
Bohemian
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Andysvw wrote..
What if this is exactly what they want?


^^^

Money quote.

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"The politicians are put there to give you the idea you have freedom of choice. You don't. You have no choice; you have owners. They own you. They own everything." - George Carlin
Rich_lather
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Why are WTI and Brent Prices so Different?

http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/02/1....

Hoarding. Many of the defunct refineries have been bought and re-purposed as oil holding facilities for speculation, much like most of Cushing, OK.

Misalocation of capital? Ya think?

Great post, and great show, Karl. I hope I can hear a full hour of your thoughts in the future.
Widgeon
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It feels like we might be at the final crossroad ... we can choose; take the medicine or Weimar. I still believe it's a choice.

Donethat
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Arithmetic Error alert. The US imports say 11 Million barrels a day.
One dollar a barrel times 11 Million times 365 days a year is 4.1 Billion dollars a year. Not 85 Billion. Yes there is a multiplier effect, but
hey back in 2008 oil hit 160 a barrel ...

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_move_wkl....
Widgeon
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WTI price is "managed" for consumption on the amerikan MSM nightly news.

Brent has been the more accurate price for the last 4 years.

Idoc
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sb
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Karl, i have to say that was just about the best post you've ever made. BTW, i hate Geithner almost as much as Ben.
Jonathanr
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I'm at a loss as tho why you expect the head of a cartel organization to offer anything but propaganda in his public communications. It's the same as those bank CEOs who trotted out the 'we're well capitalized' just before they blew up. They weren't exactly going to announce their demise with a press release, were they?

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Why do you complain? It's the criminals who decide how proceeds of crime are spent, not the victims.
Lyndscott
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Dayton, Ohio
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Karl, my reading tells me that BEN BERNANKE is doing this deliberately to the American People. The global bankers WANT to destroy the U.S. & purchase assets at fire sale prices (like they did in the last depression that they caused in the 1930's) . Why isn't this discussed more on your blog ? ... the big banking families out of EUROPE, the people who own the Federal Reserve Bank, WHY ARE THEY DOING THIS TO US ? WHY ARE THEY DELIBERATELY TRYING TO DESTROY THE AVERAGE MIDDLE-CLASS CITIZEN ? WE ARE ALL GOING TO BE REDUCED TO $8/HOUR TARGET or WALMART or PANERA EMPLOYEES !! Why are the people we elect to our CONGRESS allowing this ? When I was a kid America & it's natural resources & land were the American Citizen's ! ...most people in this country know it, they are confused & do not understand what is happening to them, but, they know something bad is happening to them .
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