FOMC Minutes: RED ALERT!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-16 14:24
by Karl Denninger
in Federal Reserve
Ignore this thread
FOMC Minutes: RED ALERT!
 

This looks like a snoozefest... right up until the end:

The information reviewed at the January 25–26 meeting indicated that the economic recovery was firming, though the expansion had not yet been sufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Consumer spending rose strongly late last year, and the ongoing expansion in business outlays for equipment and software appeared to have been sustained in recent months. However, construction activity in both the residential and nonresidential sectors remained weak. Industrial production increased solidly in November and December. Modest gains in employment continued, and the unemployment rate remained elevated. Despite further increases in commodity prices, measures of underlying inflation remained subdued and longer-run inflation expectations were stable.

No employment didn't - not when you look at the additions to the labor force!

I don't have to buy any gas, right?  Oh wait...

Source: http://gasbuddy.com

Real business investment in equipment and software appeared to have increased further in the fourth quarter, although likely at a more moderate rate than in the first three quarters of 2010.

Yeah, that's nice.  Now talk to CISCO and others about margins.  No margin, no profit.  Oops.

Measures of underlying consumer price inflation remained low. In December, the core consumer price index (CPI) edged up, as goods prices were unchanged and prices of non-energy services rose slightly.

How long is that going to last given these trends in the PPI?

In the EMEs, concerns about inflation prompted a number of central banks to tighten policy. Some EMEs reportedly took steps to limit the appreciation of their currencies by intervening in foreign exchange markets, and some acted to discourage capital inflows.

And in others, there were riots.  Including one (mostly-peaceful) revolution. 

So far.

The staff anticipated that brisk increases in energy prices would raise total consumer price inflation above core inflation this year, but that upward pressure from energy prices would wane by next year.

Your frozen body will thaw and be carrion by the time this occurs, of course.

Meeting participants noted that headline inflation had been boosted by higher prices for energy and other commodities, as well as by increases in the prices of imported goods. Some participants indicated that while unit labor costs generally had declined and profit margins were wide, the higher commodity prices were boosting costs of production for many firms. Some business contacts indicated that they were going to try to pass a portion of these higher costs through to their customers but were uncertain about whether that would be possible given current market conditions.

Here's The Fed admitting that margin collapse is occurring and is likely to continue and get worse.  Save this one folks, for when Bernanke says "but nobody saw it coming."  Like hell.  He's six months late from when I started hollering about it, but heh, better late than never.

Regarding risks to the inflation outlook, some participants noted that increases in energy and other commodity prices as well as in the prices of imported goods from EMEs posed upside risks.

Banksters: Causing and financing revolutions and wars for 1,000 years.  Suckas.

Finally, some participants noted that if the very large size of the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet led the public to doubt the Committee’s ability to withdraw monetary accommodation when doing so becomes appropriate, the result could be upward pressure on inflation expectations and so on actual inflation. To mitigate such risks, it was noted that the Committee should continue its planning for the eventual exit from the current exceptionally accommodative stance of policy.

Oh do come on.  The entire economy is resting on a 12% of GDP federal deficit!  Pull it - or the accommodation that allows it - and the economy is going to collapse.  And oh by the way, estimates for this year on that deficit are $2 trillion - up from $1.7 trillion.

Best-a-luck jackasses.

But the real stunner is right here.  This chart, which The Fed now has on record, is the defined and absolute proof that they know with absolute certainty that the path the government is on, and the World Economic Forum said we needed to be on (that is to double both government and broad economic debt) cannot possibly work.

Why not?  Well, here:

At the outside in the longer run they believe we will see 2.8% GDP growth.  Over the next nine years this means we will see 28.2% growth in GDP, all-in.

Debt is projected to have to double to produce this on a government and systemic level?  That means debt-carrying costs will have to double against an increase of 28% in output.

Like hell that will happen.  We hit the wall in 2007 as a consequence of inability to cover debt service.

Folks, the FOMC put you on notice with this set of minutes: They know this is going to blow up, they expect it to blow up, and there is no way to avoid it blowing up as carrying costs will double while the output to cover it will grow by less than 30%.

Get ready.

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Hogman
Posts: 7884
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Derby City, USA
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They've (for now) successfully blown another bubble and have got the folks to believe it. Until the checks are cut off everything is fine (so it will apear)

Thanks Karl smiley
Docj
Posts: 1010
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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You know, I'm due a bonus at the end of the month. It would be absolutely awesome if this didn't blow-up before then.

Though I do think it would be supremely ironic if the next blow-up occurred on Friday, 15 April 2011. No?

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Txin1880
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Green A True American Patriot!
Texas
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Dammit RED ALERT in a ticker Title . . .
smiley

Thanks for jumping on the ****ers so fast. It is great reading your evisceration of these fools before I even get home and hear their lies spun on the news.

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Realization - Rage - Resolve - Rifles - Rope - Recovery - Rinse - Repeat
Drench
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Themortgagedude
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saint louis
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Just had this conversation with a friend of mine. My contention is we should either bite the bullet and cut everything now or just tell em all to **** off now. I see no good coming out of pretending it will get better.

This is different than post WW2 era in that when we pulled out of the war we had little competition in manufacturing. I'm afraid that we need to blow up a few countries in order to bring back our manufacturing base.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Medicdan
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Thanks Karl. I think if I hear "The new normal" one more time.... my head will explode.

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Blackswan
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Bernanke is hoping up and down in the birds nest trying to smash the swan eggs but he is actually in the wrong nest. What's that honking noise? Why it's the mighty blackswan ready to peck Ben's eyeballs clean out of his sockets!

God help us.

I like this from the kunstler dude..

http://kunstler.com/blog/2011/02/next.ht....

It is true that the stock market only goes up. And then, one fine day, a large, angry, long-necked bird unfurls a set of elegant black wings and goes honking off into a red sun, and suddenly you are in a new realm where the stock market only goes down... and certain sovereign bond rates soar with that angry bird... and things Too-Big-To-Fail fall on their asses and fail... and everything changes.

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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
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Lenguado
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Orlando, FL
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Medic,
Quote:
I think if I hear "The new normal" one more time.... my head will explode.

My personal "head will explode" phrase is, "Let me be clear...." Because we all know that the next words out of that smiley's mouth are going to be COMPLETE obfuscations and lies....

(And we ALL KNOW which smiley I am referring to here....)
smiley smiley

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
smiley
Welcome to history’s first Double Dip Depression
Dashingdwl
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los angeles
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QE, for as far as the eye can see....

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Medicdan
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Yes we do Lenguado.

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Dashingdwl
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Well, let me be perfectly clear, the new, new normal is quantitative easing on a permanent basis.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Marketswork
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Southern Oregon
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Quote:
And we ALL KNOW which smiley I am referring to here....)


The one that plays president in front of the white house press Corp on TV - right?

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Over 300 million guns and over 1 trillion rounds of ammo, 535 pricks are pushing the buttons of 300 million or more free gun owning people. --I don't like the odds for those pricks.
Victorberry
Posts: 155
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Bedford, TX
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Karl ... great posts the last couple of days! Keep it up!

What will set off an Egyptian-style revolution in phoney baloney America? When the following numbers of people exceed 50% of the population:

"Some poor working Americans will see their tax bill rise by 4% of their income. That is a significant number. Remember, among the bottom third of workers in America, people who make $15,000 less or 50 million people in America who work make less than $15,000 a year. That group is particularly hard-hit. Their average income is only $6,000. Many of those people want to work full time, can’t find full-time work. They get cheated on their wages, because we radically cut enforcement of the wage laws. we have fewer inspectors than we did in 1941."

Source: http://www.cpa-connecticut.com/blog/?tag....

Can anyone reading Karl's blog imagine what it must be like to live on less than $15,000 a year? I know I can't. I would rather commit suicide than suffer the slow painful death of abject poverty.



Abn0rmal
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Victorberry wrote..
Can anyone reading Karl's blog imagine what it must be like to live on less than $15,000 a year? I know I can't. I would rather commit suicide than suffer the slow painful death of abject poverty
It's not really as bad as you think if you're talking about someone who's single.
Joejohns
Posts: 694
Incept: 2010-09-09
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I just spoke with a guy I have known for around 25 years.

He had a health event about 3 months ago.

He had a decent health plan so it has not broken the family yet, but he is being told to come back to work or he will be let go and is afraid to fight anything since it would be instant financial death if he is let go.
He looks like walking death and has no energy at all. Doesn't look to me like he should working.

He has a couple of kids and his father has cancer 2nd time and it's bad.

He is just tired of the whole deal.

I have had many similar type conversations in the past 6 months or so.

Many people are hanging by a thread and staying at their job only for the insurance. They are being browbeaten and forced to work harder and longer for less and less.

I wonder how many there are like this and how much more of this they will/can take.

12bolt
Posts: 163
Incept: 2009-08-24

Blueridge
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"They are being browbeaten and forced to work harder and longer for less and less."

This. Right here. Every ****ing day. Looking but am not sure that changing jobs (if I can even find something else within an hour drive) will make 1 iota of difference.

This is the new paradigm: work harder and longer for less money and be glad for the opportunity.

Mannfm11
Posts: 3608
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Gold
DFW, Tx
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TMD, there is a lot of difference between now and the end of WW II. For one, private debt had deflated. Second, though the government had spent a lot of money, the people still had the money the government spent. The banks and business were flush with treasuries with which they could obtain credit that there was slack in the economy to pay.

This time around the block, private debt is at a record. It is higher than the debt that caused the great depression. Even though the Fed is playing games, it can't get around the fact that all this money ends up as another liability. If the banks cash their assets to get it, the Fed money doesn't reduce the debts the bank owes its depositors and bond holders. If it is received by someone in the public as a transfer payment, the bank still owes the money. If they put it out on the other end, it is another liability.

What has really occurred is the buzzards are circling around fewer number of corpses. Mainly a few techs like AAPL, GOOG and NFLX and various commodities. All the money driving these assets is also a liability. Read the EIA inventory report, where it says supplies are outside the upper band of historic inventories. I don't know what is going on in the world oil markets, but it isn't like the pipelines in the US are going to run empty tomorrow if they quit bidding. Every real estate construction market in the world is on its ass save for China, yet copper trades like we are in a worldwide housing boom. Ditto cotton, a commodity where corners have been attempted repeatedly, mostly back in the early 1900's. Trust me, there is another one brewing. Wait until spring to see what the Texas Panhandle looks like. I bet you see miles and miles of cotton over miles and miles of west Texas. Screw the irrigated corn. At $1000 a bale and most likely 2 bales an acre, cotton will be king. There won't be enough warehouses in New Orleans or where ever they are to hold it all. Maybe they run it one more year, but the stuff will keep coming. So will the oil. Then will come the fire sale.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Mannfm11
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DFW, Tx
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12bolt, the great secrets are the corporate profits are the Federal deficit and the employees can no longer afford to be the customers of their employers. I heard yesterday that inventories were up and that was a good thing. Maybe inventories are up because they can't sell the crap. Maybe we have margin compression because there are building inventories that have to move. The whole game is running like China/USA trade, lend me the money and I will buy. Otherwise, no can pay.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Genesis
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Mann: DING DING DING DING

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Gayveteran
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Baltimore, MD
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"Many people are hanging by a thread and staying at their job only for the insurance. They are being browbeaten and forced to work harder and longer for less and less."

guess us peasants had better learn our place before our neo-feudal corporate overlords, unchecked corporate power is a thing to behold!
Dakine2004
Posts: 9263
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Gold A True American Patriot!
MD.MI.NC.SD.
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Quote:
neo-feudal corporate overlords, unchecked corporate power


You believe the above...? says a lot...
Rickl
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Silver
Pennsylvania
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Medicdan wrote..
I think if I hear "The new normal" one more time.... my head will explode.

I believe the German term for "the new normal" was gleichschaltung.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleichschal....


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Those of us who do remember history are condemned to repeat it anyway because those who don't are in the majority.
Mrbill
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I've never seen corporate power before. Does it shoot woodcarvers in Seattle and get off without charges? Or could it shut down 84,000 websites? Definitely has the ability to tax....
Rickl
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Gayveteran wrote..
unchecked corporate power is a thing to behold!

Then you're really gonna love the seamless union of state and corporate power.

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Those of us who do remember history are condemned to repeat it anyway because those who don't are in the majority.
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