Claims: Whassup With That?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-10 08:48
by Karl Denninger
in Employment
Ignore this thread
Claims: Whassup With That?
 

Hmmm....

In the week ending Feb. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 419,000. The 4-week moving average was 415,500, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 431,500.

Ok, that's positive.  But the last two weeks have seen the seasonally-adjusted and non-adjusted figures very close.  This week?  Uhhh....

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 438,548 in the week ending Feb. 5, a decrease of 25,928 from the previous week. There were 507,634 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

Well well.... more than 55,000 people were magically subtracted due to alleged seasonal factors.

Hmmmm....

Well, we got a few things here.  First, we now have a clean understanding of the crap number in the employment report, as there's really no "there" there.  Second, I don't believe the seasonally-adjusted numbers.

The market doesn't believe it either, judging from the futures reaction.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Claims: Whassup With That? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
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I think they are down to just asking the Magic 8-Ball what to report.

Rktbrkr
Posts: 239
Incept: 2010-10-31

US
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When unemployment numbers are worse than expected it's due to weather but weather doesn't affect better than expected numbers, lets get with the program Karl!

Computation adjustments dropped the unemployment rate 1/2% last week, thats more than 2 years of stimulus accomplished.

If you can't raise the bridge then lower the river!
Corn1945
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Quote:
If you can't raise the bridge then lower the river!


I like that phrase. I'm going to "borrow" it.
Widgeon
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FWIW, here in OK the state was literally shut down for 4 of 5 business days last week (T,W,R,F).

It was shut down again Yesterday.

The local McDonalds actually closed because it ran out of food on Tuesday.
Etz
Posts: 13889
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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BTFD smiley
Quote:
(Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to touch their lowest point in 2-1/2 years, a government report showed on Thursday, offering assurance that the labor market was strengthening despite January's poor jobs numbers.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/1....



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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

Skyline
Posts: 140
Incept: 2009-08-02

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i remember people saying jobs are lagging indicator when market started moving up and recession was ended officially.

Now not no one says jobs are lagging indicator, now we should start asking people who were claiming that... lol

Joejohns
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I made the mistake of hearing an NPR "news" report early this am and heard that the DIVORCE RATE is UP and that is a SIGN OF AN IMPROVING economy!


Maybe I have been using the wrong technicals all along?
Aztrader
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You can't believe anything coming from this gubberment. Every day a new fraud, lie or manipulation. They need to keep the morons appeased into thinking that everything is just fine.

I helped the economy this week and just ordered another gun. Damn proud to do it too!................
Obseedian
Posts: 11872
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BBRY Central
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Maybe all those people rolling off extended benefits are finally forced to get some McJobs.

That would explain the gains in low-paying service sector and/or temp jobs.

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Mikek31
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Now THIS report might actually be weather-related. We had a massive blizzard that hit what, 33 states last week? This was an EPIC storm for the Midwest (especially Chicago). The city basically shut down. Over a week later, we still have Cats removing snow and putting it in dump trucks in various locales in and around the metro area. Just saying - if you can't get to the unemployment office, you can't file a claim. If I'm right, next week's numbers should be nasty...


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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Neoplunger
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I don't know about other states, but in PA all UC claims are done on line. ON your computer or on a phone talking to their computer.

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If bull markets climb a Wall of Worry, I would add that bear markets slide down a Slope of Hope.
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We are about to discover what happens when widespread panglossian delusions run head-on into mathematical reality. Eleua
Mikek31
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Neo, you can do it online practically in any state, but a lot of people choose to do it the old-fashioned way. I went to the office thrice last year to try and get a measly printout of my benefits payments for '09 - the line was out the ****ing door every time I went. Granted, not everyone is there to file a claim, but some of them were, and there was a ****load of people.

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
Neoplunger
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N.E. PA
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In Pa there are 6 offices in the state. When you go there you use their phone. You can call for live help to open or problems. You can use any phone. Everyone gets a credit card and files by tele-claims or Internet. Trying to call for live help is a real bitch, but the unemployed have plenty of spare time.

In 08-09 i filed for 3 diff. people, signing starts sun. morning. Sometimes site was so jammed would not get thro till tues.

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If bull markets climb a Wall of Worry, I would add that bear markets slide down a Slope of Hope.
Robert R. Prechter

We are about to discover what happens when widespread panglossian delusions run head-on into mathematical reality. Eleua
Mikek31
Posts: 4350
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Chicago
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I think a lot of people have been doing their initial claim at the office, simply because they need someone to hold their hand through it. After you file, you certify for benefits either by phone or internet. I suppose this is what they mean by continuing claims?

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Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc

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