Years And Years Eh?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-10 08:32
by Karl Denninger
in States
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Years And Years Eh?
 

This is amusing garbage.....

"When it comes to municipal bond defaults, both Warren Buffett and Meredith Whitney are not only dead wrong, they are out of their league," Larkin said in notes sent to CNBC before an on-air interview.

That's right, because......

"You have to remember these are governments, they don't go out of business, they have to continue in business, they have to continue to operate, they have to continue to provide services."

Where's the money come from Larkin?

More to the point, what happens when you build in teat-suckling in the form of exponential growth in expense for every school adminstrative hackjob that fancies putting up a sign with "Auschwitz" over the entrance to the main hall?  Never mind the clearly-displayed wet dream of running the alleged screwel  as if the content of the water pipes in the locker room were gaseous.

It's astounding to me that we have supposed educators who can't perform basic mathematical functions and understand how they apply to the promises they think governments and the people will keep.  You know, exponents?

These are the people we trust with "educating" our kids.  And for those who are in the indoctrination business and lament how "times have changed" and "kids are wilder" and "you have no idea what we deal with" you're wrong.  I understand exactly what you're dealing with: The fruits of your own labor, which make your complaints even more outrageous!

You indoctrinated those kids' parents, you see.  Then they pooped out a few waifs. Guess what - you're responsible for that which created the problems that are now in your classrooms!

But we understand (while retching in disgust at your fawning ignorance) - it's far more important to "recognize" every kid in a 5th grade class in a faux "graduation" ceremony for "outstanding"....... physical educationAnd we also understand how awful it must be to not be able to play "Dance-Dance Revolution" for a whole eight hours while in school, thereby justifying spending thousands of taxpayer dollars so the kids can play video games during their "physical education" class.

We used to call that "gym class", incidentally, and that was back when we were allowed to play dodgeball. A game that requires a $5 ball and a place to throw it, indoors or out. And yes, people do lose in dodgeball, especially if they don't run.  Occasionally they take a ball in the chest and it hurts.  A bit.  But the point of gym class is to encourage the kids to run, right?  Sounds like a good motivational exercise to me, and surprise-surprise, the kids actually like it.  Even if "it" is beaning their best friend with an inflatable red ball.

Life is like that.  Sometimes you win.  Sometimes you lose.  But losing makes you try harder in a world where nobody is there to give you a teat to suckle when times get rough. 

In the real world times not only get rough, they occasionally get really rough.  The latter is headed our way because of the unrealistic and criminally insane garbage that our so-called "public employees" have shoveled down the throat and up the butt of the alleged proletariat, nearly all of whom were intentionally not taught about how exponents work in the real world when they were in screwel. 

There's only one question left to ask: Was that failure intentionally concocted or a result of stupidity?  Either way, exactly how does this sort of either rank incompetence or malicious deception qualify someone for a paycheck, say much less a title of "teacher" or "educator"?

But Larkin said actions at state level and local control boards will do a lot to prevent wide scale defaults, and most state and local pension funds are "years away from being unable to pay pensioners."

What are they going to do about it?

Again, just as one example right here, we have an idiotic government bridge authority that sold a bunch of bonds to put in place a nice "extension."  I like the precept of the extension, as it will get a lot of traffic off the road near my subdivision and if I'm coming over that bridge and headed to points yonder, it will be faster too.  The problem is that the local residents liking something has exactly nothing to do with whether the project is economically viable.

The entire cash flow from the toll revenues are necessary just to pay the interest on that bond.  And this bond is, at last check, rated "BBB" - that is, investment grade!

Given this fact here are a few "inconvenient" questions: How do you ever retire the principal on that bond?  How do you pay for maintenance on the new road?  How do you pay for maintenance on the bridge itself?  And oh, by the way, there's already existing debt on the bridge, so can someone explain to me exactly how this bond will not default, since last time I checked 2 + 2 = 4, and you need it to equal 6 for the books to balance?  Of course there's also the obvious question that nobody (except perhaps Merideth and Buffet) have asked: How the hell did you get a "BBB" rating on that bond without handing a stack of $100 bills to the so-called "ratings agency" under the desk?

I know, I know, "if we build it they will come."

Go talk to the Garcon Point bridge authority about their projections in that regard, and how well it's working out for them.  If you can find anyone on the authority, that is.  I hear that all but one resigned, possibly to avoid putting their hand on a bankrupt project, and thus the board no longer has a quorum.  That could be a problem in that the authority needs to have a quorum to conduct business.... you know, to do things like authorizing bond interest payments?

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User Info Years And Years Eh? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Karlmarxghost
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Quote:

"You have to remember these are governments, they don't go out of business, they have to continue in business, they have to continue to operate, they have to continue to provide services."


Tell that to Zimbabwe, Argentina, Germany in the 20s, and on and on. They may be in business but the peons paid a big price for them being in business...

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My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
Peteb
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..and the one remaining member of the bankrupt Garcon Point Authority, as of 2010, was the Chairman of the Santa Rosa County Republican Party. I understand his management techniques are now being taken nationwide...
Swrichmond
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The pay scales for the schools in my county are available online. Between the principal and the two assistant principals, I'm out more than $300,000.00. Now add in a staff social worker and a few guidance counselors, and we're at $500,000.00. Front office staff (admin etc) is another $100K. We haven't hired any teachers yet in this example.

Karl, I've duplicated much of your thought process. A lot of us have. Your rants about reality are correct: it's gonna be a bitch when it hits, and hit it must. Many of the libertarians have concluded that the mess cannot be fixed without a shock to the system of sufficient magnitude to absolutely convince everyone that the system is unsustainable. I am one of those.

Yet, my study of history has convinced me that the collapse will provide a massive final opportunity for the insiders to consolidate power in a very final and very "firm" manner. Boogeymen in every shadow, and to deal with it a surveillance and police state that is a whole lot less user-friendly than what we have now. Maybe a new global war or two.

The path I have chosen, and recommend, is to engage in the political resistance. Make contacts, learn the process of supporting candidates, and actually support candidates if you can find one that suits you. Make political connections. The Dems are completely blind to the fiscal realities on the ground and resist any meaningful reductions in government spending (Keynesians provide them cover), and the 2010 election convinced the Repubs that the voters won't vote dem so they are back to their old shenanigans. Here in VA the presidential-aspiration R governor wants to put the voters deep in debt and build roads. Here in VA the R-majority House of Delegates bankster lobby prevented meaningful foreclosure reform, and by reform I mean simply making lawyers bring genuine documents to court. (http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504..... this is a watered-down version of a state senate bill that also tried to clamp down on foreclosure fraud, this one http://leg1.state.va.us/cgi-bin/legp504.....

Do we need a third party? Of course we do. But in the meantime, we need to train a contingent of people who know how to do politics. For too long we have left politics to the politicians, and THAT is the reason we are in the mess we're in.
Randy123
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Regionalization is needed in NJ. Too many small towns, too many admins, too many supers.

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Bertdilbert
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"You have to remember these are governments, they don't go out of business, they have to continue in business, they have to continue to operate, they have to continue to provide services."

Apparently this guy has not paid attention to history much. As long as the cities keep foisting off paper into their retirement trusts. City of Houston and look where they are now. Heard gov of calif talking on radio yesterday calling lease back of state buildings a dumb idea. He is proposing borrowing from other funds. That would not entail borrowing from the pension funds and the trust funds you run for all the cities is it Gov? There are only so many trust funds the state of CA can borrow from by sticking bad paper in it. How long is it before the cities wise up and withdraw their money from the trust fund if that is your intent? How long is it before bankrupt states start placing each other's debt in these trust funds to make the budget work without addressing the structural problems?

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Assassin
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these links:

http://market-ticker.org/?singlepost=213....
http://market-ticker.org/?singlepost=213....

fail in that they just load the main webpage.

they should be:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?single....

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?single....

this seems to be a repeat issue. whenever you link to your prior posts, the "akcs-www" is missing from the URL.

EDIT: this is a problem when viewing the blog with "http://market-ticker.org/", but not with "http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?blog=M.... so i guess the issue is the reference to "?singlepost=xxxx" is a relative URL rather than an absolute one.

Reason: clarification added
Genesis
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It has to do with the editor; I've fixed it. It's not the software per-se; the editor is truncating the links in some cases but not others (which, incidentally, is why I hate that Wysiwyg crap and won't turn it on for the other parts of the forum - they sometimes "choose" to do things like this.

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Smittie
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When you boil it down, the basic message that is rammed into the heads of the public school student today is simple; "Curse the darkness".
Mortgageguymn
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Pensions are fine for "years". Of course, "years" could mean 2.

Re: education costs. Last night I discovered that the Minneapolis' school district budget is $670 mil for this school year. With 32,000 students, that averages out to $21,050 each. And for that expenditure (twice that of some parochial schools), we have a 50% drop-out rate among minorities, not that graduating with today's standards would necessarily mean much. We must have one hell of a lot of Dance, Dance Revolutions.
Txdomer
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Genesis wrote..
More to the point, what happens when you build in teat-suckling in the form of exponential growth in expense for every school adminstrative hackjob that fancies putting up a sign with "Auschwitz" over the entrance to the main hall? Never mind the clearly-displayed wet dream of running the alleged screwel as if the content of the water pipes in the locker room were gaseous.


Bad, bad, bad analogy, and you know it.

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Hogman
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I really don't want this to happen because it would be really bad

However I'd love to see it to shut these ****inng idiots up

(I smell FED bailout in some form or fashion)
Joe-bob
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It's not just a failure in mathematics. I remember noticing, at 16, that EVERY book we read in English class ended up being - according to the teacher - about man (like) vs society, there were required essays on how it was all about society was the bad guy... alternating between that and War Is Bad... then I did the calculations & realized a lot of my teachers were the right age to have gone to college & then gone into teaching during the Vietnam war. &$#%ing head-nodding "bull sessions" from 1967-1974 were the source material for my education in the humanities (?!) This passed for the new "insightful" worldview. The same worldview that led to sentiments expressed in my college marketing class like "(like,) perception is reality(,man)"

Yes... they will have to live with what they created

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Fatherofreds
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Gen said "I checked 2 + 2 = 4, and you need it to equal 6 for the books to balance?"

I think you underestimate the gravity of this. The real equation would need to be 2+2=12 to balance the books. Just like the fed budget. Father of Reds

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Nevertoolate
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Texas has over 1000 school districts and only 254 counties. New rule, one school district per county (or less in the case of Loving County (population <100)) and poof you have removed over 750 superintendents, asst superintendents secretaries and asst. secretaries. All of them high end low/ no educational value expenditures.

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Abn0rmal
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Nevertoolate wrote..
Texas has over 1000 school districts and only 254 counties. New rule, one school district per county (or less in the case of Loving County (population <100)) and poof you have removed over 750 superintendents, asst superintendents secretaries and asst. secretaries. All of them high end low/ no educational value expenditures.
I have a relative that works for Senator Shapiro on the education committee. Send me a PM and I'll give you his contact information. Complaining to her office is theoretically less futile than complaining on Tickerforum.
Anti
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Quote:
&$#%ing head-nodding "bull sessions" from 1967-1974


Oh **** don't remind me. At least that is how I ended up studying mathematics. One nice thing about studying any hard science, if you spend a couple of hours studying, afterwords you know more than when you started.

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Anti
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Quote:
New rule, one school district per county (or less in the case of Loving County (population <100)) and poof you have removed over 750 superintendents, asst superintendents secretaries and asst. secretaries.


Don't count on the Highland Park/University Park school district signing on. A little island of normalcy within the Dallas city area. They had their own school district and it saved them from the integration madness. It kept their property values high and their schools intact.

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Health is better than health insurance
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Over the past 60 years, thousands of people have used the Gerson Therapy to recover from so-called “incurable” diseases such as cancer, diabetes, heart disease and arthritis.
Djloche
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Quote:
what happens when you build in teat-suckling in the form of exponential growth in expense for every school adminstrative hackjob that fancies putting up a sign with "Auschwitz" over the entrance to the main hall?


Ha! I think we'll continue to see these well deserved digs at the local school district.


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Teotwawkinow
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Karl,

I believe there will be a few town, city and county defaults and definitely hair cuts on bonds, but I don't believer TPTB will allow any states to default on their GO bonds. Just imagine what California or New Jersey defaulting would do to the markets. Seriously, war game it out.

CONgress will bail them out. Of course they won't call it that. They will probably guarantee them or some other such nonsense. And if you think the new TEA party CONgress can be trusted, just look how they voted on the Patriot Act extension.
End_the_bubbles
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Larkin's name has been added to the list when the ****pile collapses.

smiley

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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