Gasbag-a-Rino Does It Again
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-02-08 09:55
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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Gasbag-a-Rino Does It Again
 

There's dumb, and then there's idiotic.  How does this guy keep a job?

High-profile Wall Street analyst Meredith Whitney's doomsday prediction that hundreds of billions of dollars in municipal bonds will evaporate in default over the next year has been condemned as improbable to irresponsible by just about anyone who knows anything about municipal finance.

Oh really?  You mean anyone who has a vested interest in ignoring 2 + 2 = 4, right?

Cities and states rarely default on their debt, and for her prediction to be accurate, the economy would have to be getting much worse rather than somewhat better, as most data show. It's hard to imagine even places like California, New York and New Jersey somehow deciding not to pay back bondholders this year; governors in each state want to issue more debt, and such a default would bar them from doing so for years.

How are you going to continue to issue more debt when you're unable to pay on your current obligations?

Now don't get me wrong - the Merideth "request" to testify is more akin to a witch hunt than anything else.  But Charlie then goes completely off the rails with this:

....bankruptcy is a legislative cop out. It would relieve profligate state governments of the consequences of their actions, namely the difficulty of telling municipal workers and others living off the public trough that there isn't enough money to give them everything they want, and of making the unpopular choices of cutting budgets drastically or raising taxes.

It's also pretty dumb. What investor would buy a bond of a bankrupt state that will at least postpone paying off its debt? And if a state can't issue debt, how will it build roads, bridges and schools?

Ah, now we're getting to it.

See, the entire point of bankruptcy as a procedure is that it forces people to think before they invest.  That is, you don't give someone a loan (which is what a bond is) unless you're reasonably certain they'll pay it back.  This analysis requires some time and effort, which many people claim we shouldn't bother with.

Including, it appears, Charlie Gasparino.

Of course this is how we got into the mess in the first place.  We made loans to people to buy houses without giving a damn if they could pay.  We made loans to build shopping centers without any sort of analysis as to whether the actual consumer presence would materialize and make the rents charged reasonable.  And, in our local area here, we are building a road extension as a "bypass" for the local toll bridge which just issued bonds that will require an interest payment alone that equals, approximately, the entire toll revenue on an annual basis.

Oh, did I mention that the bridge already has lots of debt it needs to service? 

Exactly why would you buy such a bond issue?  It was rated "BBB", which is investment-quality. 

Huh?

Exactly how does that bond merit an "investment quality" rating when on a simple cash-flow analysis the entire revenue taken in from the bridge over the last year will be required to simply meet the interest payment on the bond, leaving nothing to service the rest of the bridge's debt nor to fund operating expenses!

That bond should have been rejected by the market.  But it was marketable for the simple reason that investors and ratings agencies believe that the nanny state will find some way to squeeze the money necessary to cover the bond out of the residents.

Note that this bridge, the Mid-Bay Bridge, has had two toll increases in recent years.  These toll increases arguably were part of why WalMart decided to build a store on this side of the bridge, thereby removing the desire of residents to cross that bridge to visit the store on the other side.  In turn that will likely depress the number of trips over the bridge.  It's called economics, and we all practice it.  When you must pay $5 on a round-trip basis and that trip was $3 a couple of years ago, the equation changes.  Is it worth it?  Maybe not.

Has it altered my decision to go over the bridge?  Marginally, yes.  But if I'm like most of the other residents of the area, that marginal change is going to spell trouble for the bridge authority.  I'm sure they will toll the bypass road too, but it won't matter in the end.  These projects never come in within budget and yet the bond issues are made with the premise that "if we build it they will come."

Tell us again how that worked out for the people buying houses with OptionARMs?

The only way market discipline works is if it is enforced.  Bankruptcy is the enforcement mechanism.  If your borrower can go bankrupt and force you to eat any imprudently-granted loan, then you're really careful about who you lend capital to.

This is what the market is supposed to do.  And unlike municipalities issuing more and more unpayable debt, what should be happening is that the demanded coupon on those bonds should go to the moon, thereby cutting off the ability of governments to borrow and spend, forcing them to instead live within their tax revenues.

That, in turn, will result in an actual debate on what the proper role - and the limits - of government might be.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Gasbag-a-Rino Does It Again in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bailout-funder
Posts: 1014
Incept: 2008-10-17

SF Bay Area, CA
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So, douchebag's main arguments are that municipal bankruptcies won't happen because (1) the cities don't want to be bankrupt, and (2) it would be bad for them???
Hell, I want skittles too.

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"As we have now seen, one little lie, repeated often enough, becomes one gigantic mess."
"Someone clearly got the best government money can buy, but it certainly wasn’t us."
--Karl Denninger
Mschemeng
Posts: 180
Incept: 2010-10-03

Toronto ON
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one and only comment on NY post LOL!

NYPOST Comments (1)
•Report

Gimmeabreak

02/08/2011 5:33 AM

Image...If a state goes bankrupt, it would have to pay for what it wants now when it purchases it rather than borrowing money and letting people pay for it later. In addition, it would have balance its budget since it couldn't borrow money.

WHAT A CONCEPT!!

Now, tell me again, what's the downside of bankruptcy?



Read more: http://www.nypost.com/p/news/opinion/ope....
Docj
Posts: 998
Incept: 2009-09-10
Silver
Duck & Cover
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Well, here you go Karl - Uncle Barry's gonna bailout the states...

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011/02/....

Quote:
The Obama administration is proposing short-term relief to states saddled with unemployment insurance debt, coupled with a delayed increase in the income level used to tax employers for the aid to the jobless.


Short term == forever

The bailouts will continue until the currency implodes.

Can. Kick. Road.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Sqmo
Posts: 919
Incept: 2009-09-14

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This
Quote:
And if a state can't issue debt, how will it build roads, bridges and schools?

assumes that states are supposed to do these things. Worse than that though, the states are borrowing to pay for pension contributions and general fund-type stuff.
Mattytrader
Posts: 40
Incept: 2010-08-18

NY/NJ
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i went to my first Board of Education meeting last night (shame on me for not being more active) and it was truly an eye opener. There are 4-5 teachers slated to be let go.. and one of them has taught 2 of my children and she is absolutely WONDERFUL.. but she has no tenure. Here is the problem.. we live in an affluent town where the enrollment #'s where going up over the last few years(during the "boom") and now they are headed down like a rock. Last year at this time there were 48 kids registered for kindergarten.. now for next year there are 30. We have 4 kindergartens for 62-64 kids.. no matter how much we all love this teacher.. she is going to have to go because of NECESSITY(or lack there of) and lack of tenure. Oh and the real reason is because we are going to have an $800k shortfall this year that they have NO IDEA how to fix. They literally suggested that they should start by cutting the Librarian... i mean how much can this lady make? $15k? Anyway.. i got up and started talking about cuts and asked what the budget was.. to which none of them had an answer. But i said.. "lets says it 40mm for the whole district.. if everyone takes a 1% cut in salary .. half of your shortfall will be met." Boy did that make them angry... people done realize that the good times are over.. no more guarunteed raises.. back to reality.. tax revs. arent there anymore.. need to change our expectations..
Polizeros
Posts: 4
Incept: 2011-01-02

United States
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It's about the bondholders. Because it's always about the bondholders. States defaulting mean they might not be paid in full. Oh the horror. That's the real concern underlying all of this.

Iceland defaulted, let the banks fail, and is recovering. Ireland by contrast choose to pay the bondholders in full and indebted themselves for years to come.
Eli
Posts: 7192
Incept: 2007-09-10
Silver
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Why don't they just convict Merideth of heresy against the state approved "truth", black bag her and throw her in a dark prison never to be seen again.

"When you finally disappear, we will just say you were never here." Arcade Fire

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Medicdan
Posts: 8017
Incept: 2010-02-11
Green
Scottsdale, AZ
Online
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At some point I will wake up and hear the talking heads trying to spin a major city bankruptcy as an investing opportunity. You know they will.

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Arizona & desert gardening
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Horsewithnonick
Posts: 36
Incept: 2009-04-03

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Here's a writeup that points out how illogical it is for muni traders to argue with Meredith's assessment - unless they know she's right:

http://www.lewrockwell.com/crovelli/crov....
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9759
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Gold
los angeles
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We have found a witch, may we burn her?

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Icarus
Posts: 248
Incept: 2010-11-11
Gold
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Genesis wrote..
And unlike municipalities issuing more and more unpayable debt, what should be happening is that the demanded coupon on those bonds should go to the moon, thereby cutting off the ability of governments to borrow and spend, forcing them to instead live within their tax revenues.

Amen!
And even if the debt they could issue is "payable" and with AAA interest rates, they should instead live within their tax revenues only, thereby saving the interest costs to the taxpayers.

Another point Gasparino doesn't get:
Gasparino wrote..
And if a state can't issue debt, how will it build roads, bridges and schools?


Well, the same way the debt (plus interest) is paid off: directly from the tax revenues, without giving a "rake" to the vampire squid banksters. But if you say that to (just about) any elected official of both main parties, all you'll get is a laugh and a shrug.



Bagbalm
Posts: 4255
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Just North of Detroit
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We need a picture of her tied to the stake - but instead of ******s piled at her feet there would be rolled up bonds...
Blurtman
Posts: 563
Incept: 2009-01-24


Banned
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"What investor would buy a bond of a bankrupt state that will at least postpone paying off its debt?"

Bingo!

Silence! Don't speak the word!

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I have a reading comprehension problem and the owner banned me for repeatedly displaying it after being warned.
Mannfm11
Posts: 3539
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Gold
DFW, Tx
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How many idiots do they need to parade out there before the world realizes the entire group are idiots? For one, states are prohibited by the constitution from issuing bills of credit and I know they get around it through crap like toll road authorities. Texas never borrowed any money to build public highways. They haven't raised road use taxes in years, so they don't build much any more. The one tax I would not mind paying more of would be one that got us some more highways, but instead we get these toll roads. They are financed with bonds. The first tollway built here was IH 30 between Dallas and Ft. Worth. It paid itself off in about 12 years and became a freeway. Then they built Dallas North Tollway from IH 635 to near downtown. About the time it was to be paid for, they decided to extend it. That stretch of road was paid for with 20 cent tolls, maybe they went to 25 cents by the time they extended it. Now, we pay about $1 for a paid off road and there is a huge pile of debt. That was 25 years ago and the people that paid for that road weren't happy then and I would say many of them are now dead and the rest of us don't have enough sense to know the rules that have been broken.

I bought a book a few months ago written in 1913 by Louis Brandeis, the Supreme Court Justice, called Other Peoples Money. I forget the rest of the title, but he went into how Wall Street scams governments out of fees on debt. Of course, Gasperino wouldn't want his handlers to go without any more money to shove in their pockets. Also, I doubt if there were not more bonds issued, the ratings might come into question again, along with the representations made by Wall street to customers on these bonds. Also, being tax free, how many of these pigs have their own portfolios loaded up with state and local debt that just might not be able to unload it in this current market? I wouldn't be shocked if Wall Street and their minions weren't holding $1 trillion of this crap. The dog ate too much to get back under the gate and is stuck in the yard? Mere millionaires don't need this stuff, especially now.

God forbid we don't have a Federal Bailout of the states and local governments. I find it highly doubtful the Constitution allows such a bailout, but the Wall Street crowd don't really care about the Constitution, seeing as they derive their own power out of shear denial of portions of the declaration themselves. If too big to fail isn't unequal treatment under the law, what is? If being allowed to run a control fraud ponzi accounting scheme isn't against the constitution, what is? Congress and the treasury have to a major extent endowed this group a title of nobility.

Lysander Spooner protested corporations almost 200 years ago, proclaiming their limited liability against the constitution, in that they favor the rich. Who would lend their $1 million when they can put up $50,000 and lend $1 million and when it blows up, if it does, they only lose their $50,000. A common person does this and its his life savings.

When this does blow, which it is 100% guaranteed to do, we cannot go forward without examining the function of banking and corporate shields in our economy. There was $100 billion plus drawn out of this mess by its individual participants last year. This is 1% of the amount of money the working people of the US earn, being the rest of GDP is something else. The state of Texas only got 2% sales tax when I was a kid and food and gasoline were exempt from sales tax along with some other items. To draw half that on every penny the populace draws from work by a select group borders on organized crime. The problem is what they are doing is going to blow up and we are going to get the bill. They have no liability. Most will be setting themselves up as the injured party, instead of the criminal or tortfeasor. At times I wonder if we wouldn't have been better off if 9/11 hasn't been a nuke instead of a plane.

This brings me back to CNBS. Where is the free press? It appears to me it is here with KD, Mike Shedlock, Yves Smith and a few others like many of us on this board. We are faced everyday with a search for the truth, which isn't going to be found in much of the mainstream. I think the closest I hear on mainstream TV that doesn't endorse the Wall Street line is Glenn Beck, like him or not. We have a stage where people with an interest in lying are paraded in front of TV journalists that are interested in helping them pass along the lies. A bear on CNBS might as well be a bear raiding some beekeepers beehives. Not a welcome guest.

Thus the proposal is to keep the door open to pass more and more bad debt. When it fails, get the government to guarantee it, but don't tax massive personal incomes. When the **** hits the fan, you can bet these borderline crooks are going to leave the country and move to some offshore haven, so they can draw the debt peonage out of Americans while not having to pay into the disaster themselves. Robert Vesco was a pioneer.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith
Smacktle
Posts: 1361
Incept: 2009-01-20
Green
Texas
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Didn't you see the movie?! It's all right there in the movie! Kevin Costner said it so it must be true.

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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Digalert
Posts: 217
Incept: 2009-09-19

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"It's hard to imagine even places like California, NY and NJ somehow deciding not to pay back bondholders"?
California? Do you mean the IOU state of fruits and nuts? Oh I can imagine...
Mannfm11
Posts: 3539
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Gold
DFW, Tx
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Mattytrader wrote..
Anyway.. i got up and started talking about cuts and asked what the budget was.. to which none of them had an answer. But i said.. "lets says it 40mm for the whole district.. if everyone takes a 1% cut in salary .. half of your shortfall will be met." Boy did that make them angry... people done realize that the good times are over.. no more guarunteed raises.. back to reality.. tax revs. arent there anymore.. need to change our expectations..


What a great point Mattytrader. What does this tell you? It tells me that the entire group is interested in further milking the system. There is $5 million of administrative expense that could be cut tomorrow out of that budget, I would bet any amount of money. I read years ago that the administrative expense of running the NYC school district exceeded the cost of running the administrative system of the entire country of Germany. The German education system seems to work very well, as I have yet to meet a German that came across to me as stupid. You want to find one here, just go ask someone. One will show up right in front of you.

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The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.---John Kenneth Galbraith

Curdmugeon45
Posts: 29
Incept: 2010-06-25

Houston, Texas
Banned
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mattytrader wrote..
But i said.. "lets says it 40mm for the whole district.. if everyone takes a 1% cut in salary .. half of your shortfall will be met." Boy did that make them angry... people done realize that the good times are over.. no more guarunteed raises.. back to reality.. tax revs. arent there anymore.. need to change our expectations..


That's the problem. Whenever ANYONE speaks of sacrifice, shared or otherwise, they always mean YOUR sacrifice, never theirs.

The teacher being cut? It's a sacrifice worth making.

The librarian? Who needs her?

But the payment for their leased Lexus? How dare you endanger that?

/facepalm
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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Whatever MW's predictions ... there's a simple solution ... if you don't like her views & takes then don't do business w/ her co.

Oh, that would be too much "Phree Marketee" for the propaganda ministry.

Erica712
Posts: 1910
Incept: 2009-03-16
Green
Central FL
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Mattytrader, it's the same thing here. All teachers in years 1- 3 with this disrict are on "annual contract" and will probably be let go this spring. (the district HR person told me that count is 338)

So my husband gets to lose his job so that the older union hacks can keep their jobs. They are pushing for a raise, while the younger teachers just want to keep their $35k job. Meanwhile, it doesn't matter one hill of beans how great a younger teacher is. Her test scores could be excellent and she could be the most dedicated and professional teacher, yet just because she is newer to the dstrict, she is out. (and many of these teachers, like my husband, have many years of teaching experience, yet just moved here so they are the last hired, first fired.)

This is why I hate the freakin union. Throw the annual contract teachers under the bus just to keep from taking any kind of pay cut. It really makes me mad.
Zacmilo
Posts: 96
Incept: 2009-07-14

australia
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"Mister Denniger are you now or have you ever been an associate or aquaintance of Meridith Whitney,just answer the question yes or no,remember you are under oath."
Seedyrum
Posts: 417
Incept: 2009-04-09

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Remember corporations bought the media (newspapers, books, tv stations, and etc). They realized if their "scam" as to work, they had to control the messenger. Remember, Keith Olberman left MSNBC because of Comcast buying NBC and his contract was up.

Everything that is happening was preplanned. They knew there were sheep in the audience and uneducated audience at that. They planned all of this.

None of this was "accidental" and they can't claim, "they didn't see it coming."

Karl advised his readers to stock up and go the defense, I am grateful for the warning.

What I don't understand is why are some warned folks still playing in the rigged stack market?? Are they addicted to gambling?? Addicted to the smell of money?? Addicted fooling the middle income people?? Addicted to stealing??

Do they think they are due whatever money they can steal??

Is playing in the stock market as addicting as cocaine??

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Widgeon
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Good points Seed.

I've stopped although I still have 2 accounts w/ some money in them. I think I made about 5 trades last year (compared to hundreds in the prior three).

For me, being in the market was a way to supplement our income. Our only chance to "retire" early was to do very well in the market. So, it was gambling in that sense ... a portion of our money put on Black in the hopes of getting to "retire" substantially early.

Other thoughts as well ... but that's it for now.


End_the_bubbles
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The New 3rd World
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Quote:
What I don't understand is why are some warned folks still playing in the rigged stack market??


Because there is still money to be made. Besides, it's ALWAYS been "rigged" it's just more blatant now......

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
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