How To Destabilize A Region
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-01-28 11:54
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
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How To Destabilize A Region
 

First, you must sell allegedly "friendly" governments lots of weapons.  You know, aircraft, missiles, guns, ammunition, that sort of stuff.  It helps a lot if the governments have money, and it helps even more if you can convince them to peg their currencies in some way to yours, and they have something you want (think oil.)

Next, having accomplished the currency peg and sales of arms, you then allow your banks to engage in rampant speculation and fraud.  You let them counterfeit your currency with impunity by issuing credit unbacked by anything (which spends exactly the same as does currency, and thus is an effective naked short upon it), so long as they bribe Congress sufficiently with "campaign contributions."  This is all legal, of course, and where it isn't you change the law (such as through the CFMA) so it becomes legal.

Having done that, you let your Central Bank pontificate about how "rising stock prices" are good for the economy and "animal spirits."  You intentionally fail to mention, however, that speculative price and value are not the same thing, and that said companies are drowning in debt to the point that you now need to pay $12 for $1 worth of actual underlying assets, after debt is subtracted.  This, incidentally, is three times the level of speculative premium you had in 2007, just before the market blew up.

In order to support this speculative bubble (which your President is dumb enough to crow about in his "State of the Union" speech) you intentionally flood the market with "liquidity" (that's a fancy name for "cheap loans.")  Speculators figure this game out immediately and start driving up the price of everything - not just stocks.  Cotton quadruples in price.  Wheat, corn, oats, copper, oil - all have a rocket strapped to their ass and lit.

Of course producers and processors of food and other items can only pass through those price increases or eat them. They can't eat them beyond their margin and remain in business, so this starts to leak into the real economy.  The currency pegs mean that most of the inflationary pressure you're creating doesn't hit your nation, it's exported to others.  That exactly how you like it, because you can claim "inflation expectations are well-anchored."  Perhaps they are in your nation, but in other places they're extremely unanchored and are not only expectations, they're realized facts as the basic cost of life spirals up out of control.

This, in turn, provokes food riots in these less-well-endowed nations that you managed to dupe into participating in your outrageous scheme. 

After all, there's only one thing worse than a hungry man. 

That's a man who used to be well-fed and now he's both hungry and*****ed, along with being unemployed.

When his belly growls loudly enough, he riots.

And so do his similarly-situated neighbors.

That's when you find out what the balance of power really looks like between government and the people.  Even in a monstrously-repressive regime such as Egypt, the fact remains that when the people have had enough, the government is fooked.

We should send our entire banking and scamming apparatus - every one of the people responsible for the bubbles and asset-stripping over the previous 20 years and all the policy wonks who have allowed and even encouraged the currency pegs and similar intentional distortions - over to Cairo on a nice Air Force airplane and turn them over to the people.

Let them hold the trial and determine what justice might dictate.  Put it on pay-per-view and have the proceeds go to paying down the national debt.

We won't, of course.  We'll claim we're not responsible in any way.  The bankers will have none of this adhere to them, including Bernanke.  Congress will, for its part, duck the responsibility that it has, in that it has continually allowed the bad debt to be hidden with outrageous actions like demanding that FASB change mark-to-market, bailing out insolvent banks, bailing out Fannie and Freddie and allowing Bernanke to claim that he "would not monetize the debt" - while he was doing so, and then allow him to do so - in the open, naked, without so much as a peep or legislation (or a contempt of Congress charge) to stop him.

This unrest is likely to spread, because unrest means disruption of supply lines, which in turn means prices go even higher.  The same problems that caused this load of crap to happen are being made worse by it, and yet there's not one peep in the mainstream media nor among Congress as to what actually caused all of this to occur, or any calls for those responsible to be forced to stop it.

There's an implicit warning in what's going on over in Egypt today, as if this spreads through the Middle East, and it very well may, and radical elements get their hands on all the nice weapons we sold these nations under the premise of being a "friend" to America, you might want to think about what happens if the Middle East oil conduits get shut down, and whether that might create some "interesting" dynamics HERE in the United States.

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Mdrive
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as celente says...when the people have nothing to lose, they lose it

meanwhile the political and corporate elites party it up in darvos telling the world their **** doesn't stink and all is right with the world
Trades50
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Quote:
there's only one thing worse than a hungry man


Egg heads in the Federal reserve didn't count on this happening. That there money printing would blow up in their face.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Steelhead23
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Excellent post Gen. Even if the looting of the global economy could continue without causing a market collapse, U.S. policies and the actions of the global financial elite could create legitimation crises all over the place as governments are blamed for the actions of the elite. You said this could happen - and now it has. If you are going to continue prognosticating, would you mind predicting some nice sunny weather instead of global financial collapse?

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"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Yaldor
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This is very TRUE.

However the average guy will not understand all this .

It has to be made simple to JOE6P: Inflation that is now in EGYPT will come home to roost

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For every crash the probability of someone showing that he predicted it is near 1 .

For every prediction of an imminent crash the probability of it being correct is almost zero
Throxxofvron
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Parts of Cairo have descended into chaos under darkness.

The Army has been deployed...

Hillary Clinton just went live -NOW- on Al Jazeera.

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Pj
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Karl

smiley smiley smiley

This Ticker should be required reading in EVERY Econ and Finance class in this country.

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When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.” Edward Gibbon
Goldbrick
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Karl, that would make an excellent prologue to your "work in progress". smiley

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Halfbrite
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Spot on KD. This is why there is no "safe haven" to take your accumulated cash and flee to another country. Other countries (poorer ones) will be hit much harder than the US, as the people starve due to food/energy inflation, and the folks in those countries really are not gonna like any "rich americans" that are hanging out in the better parts of their countries.

There is a direct cause/effect relationship between our liars in the banks/gov printing money, and people dying worldwide in these riots - it will get worse, much worse, I'm just not sure when and how rapidly it spreads.

You've nailed it, and thank you for your writings and helping me to understand global economics, currencies, and inflation.

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Otiswild
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I'm kinda hoping for $300/bbl oil myself, if there's anything foreseeable out there that could finally get through to all the bubble-addled ****s at the Fed and elsewhere, massive disruption of oil supply would be it.
Jubber
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with no shorts left in the market, it should drop like a stone

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“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Splashdown
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Without cheap oil, the world gets whole lot bigger.
Winstonsmith2009
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Hey, this could get really interesting! Syria has supposedly shut down it's Internet access. US proxy Egypt is possibly going to end up a lot less friendly toward Israel. Revolution may spread to other Middle Eastern tyrannies depending upon the living cost problems within _their_ borders. Anyone have any figures on this?

Intended or unintended consequences of Bernanke's exported (temporarily) inflation? Intended with respect to driving people to the relative safety of the dollar and the effects on China, unintended with respect to causing the overthrow of puppet states in the Middle east?

Live feed is VERY interesting...:

http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

Political/historical analysis from Middle Eastern expert:

http://www.democracynow.org/2011/1/28/ju....

Reason: Added Cole interview link
Econ101
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Very "interesting" ticker.

I guess a few years back a lot of "patriots" would have piled on this kind of opinion by branding you as "Blame America first" fringe.

Idoc
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the videos of THOUSANDS of Egyptians facedown praying and preparing themselves to become martyrs for the revolution are much more terrifying than an angry black man.
Idoc
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wait til this **** comes here. i'm ready.
Idoc
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Karl, you're absolutely right to blame this on Bernanke. just don't forget that little **** Geithner.
Eaglewwit
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Like I have said for years now, all roads lead to war. Our fearless leaders will get us into a more wars and keep J6P from rioting. The same criminals will remain in power and the rest of us are fooked.
Idoc
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it'll be interesting to see the longer term effects of this on the price of oil and PM's. initial rxn has been to buy. i'm not so sure the prices don't collapse like 2008 as the debt defaults escalate.
Idoc
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the dark videos of gunfire and screams in the nite set the imagination ablaze.
Icanhasbailout
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Isn't a lot of the speculative money chasing commodities direct from the Fed itself, at one remove through its member banks/bailout recipients? The Fed put out hundreds of billions in QE multiple times, giving it largely to those desperate to make up for massive losses (and therefore engage in excessively risky speculation such as we are seeing in commodities).

Long story short, I don't think that the effect of the Fed's policies is even as indirect as you describe; I see it as much more direct: QE$ -> commodity speculation -> global food price crisis.

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Halfbrite
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Econ said:
Quote:
I guess a few years back a lot of "patriots" would have piled on this kind of opinion by branding you as "Blame America first" fringe.


Not at all econ - facts matter. When the facts conclusively indicate america is to blame, the "patriots" on this forum are quick to "get it" and accept our countries policies cause devastation elsewhere in the world. When facts are absent, blaming america first is totally innapropriate.


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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
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I have a feeling that this time, if the elites trump up an excuse for war, it will be far more transparent to a larger portion of the populace of this country than ever before.

This time, they may not get away with all the lies.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

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Kab
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Quote:
I guess a few years back a lot of "patriots" would have piled on this kind of opinion by branding you as "Blame America first" fringe.


Maybe by the naive and ignorant. The key difference between Karl's ticker and the common "blame America" nonsense is Karl did not blame America. Karl blamed specific actions and policies. I don't think most people are going to understand how those actions and policies resulted in these riots though.
Lenguado
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Quote:
you might want to think about what happens if the Middle East oil conduits get shut down, and whether that might create some "interesting" dynamics HERE in the United States

I was prognosticating over this about 3 years ago, and Mi Esposa says that I am a nutcase - and that can never happen. Things are good. Besides, this is America! We'll be good to go....

Now - where did I put my tactical Remington 870, and that stash of buckshot.... great for Zombies ya know....

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I just realized... they aren't saying, "Keynesian Economics"
they're saying "Kenyansian Economics". Grass Huts for everyone!
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