If World Trade Is Improving....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-01-28 09:21
by Karl Denninger
in International
Ignore this thread
If World Trade Is Improving....
 

Why is the Baltic Dry Index playing cliff-diver?

I know there's a capacity (specifically, overcapacity) issue in the ship business, but this is just plain bad.  How do you make money on these vessels at that sort of pricing?  The decline since September, when people were pointing to a rebound starting, is stunning - and disturbing.

Yes, the solution to too much capacity and low prices is low prices - people go under, then capacity comes off, and price goes up.  But remember, the mantra we keep hearing is that the economy worldwide is growing so fast.... well, if it is, why is it that bulk carriers aren't loaded to the gills and able to maintain prices?

As an anecdote I also hear regularly from associates of mine who are involved in the goods trade across national boundaries.  There was a set of memos that was circulating around the holidays about expected price increases for non-bulk (e.g. container) shipments; I am now hearing that these have been rescinded.

Perhaps all is not what it appears.... especially over in China.

Lest you're inclined to believe in the "Growth Story" in China, let me point out that they apparently got caught attempting to claim Top Gun footage as having come from a military exercise.  Yes, really.

Faking military exercises?  Is there anything real in Chinese "statistics" and "claims"?

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info If World Trade Is Improving.... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mschemeng
Posts: 180
Incept: 2010-10-03

Toronto ON
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off topic, but related...media control...

CNBC showing peaceful demonstrations in Albania as Cairo....OMG...OMG

I'm watching Euronews...It's like outright war in Cairo...OMG...

There were Albanian flags in the crowd...and pictures of 3 people killed last week

I also posted this in geopolitical link, why hide world events from the market?

Edit: $BDI, most ships will come on line in two years, not now, a half of red herring

Eighty6thebs
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It's contained to sub-prime!
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****ing classic on the footage!

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Green
Region formerly known as the United States
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"World Trade" ... Paper & Electrons ... It Doesn't Require a Bulk Carrier to Move Those.

Of course, if you actually want to make something useful it's a different issue.

Trades50
Posts: 4215
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Silver
Land of Tax and Spend
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Only if people realized how much the US media is controlled. Even the popular message boards are censored. Comments negative to the market are omitted in many cases.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Genesis
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This is a pretty popular board....

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Skip
Posts: 137
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The Chinese are highly rated on their deception techniques with regards to military. I see no reason why this shouldn't apply to other areas.
Karlmarxghost
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Quote:

Faking military exercises? Is there anything real in Chinese "statistics" and "claims"?


Wow, and I thought our government lied. I hope all of these pro China pumpers I see on TV daily pumping China see **** like this. We have our faults but man... the option is much worse...

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My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
Medicdan
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Scottsdale, AZ
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It has always been my understanding that the Baltic index can not be manipulated.

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Eighty6thebs
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Green
It's contained to sub-prime!
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KD eludes to it but supposedly there is an enormous glut in new container ships that have just been brought to market. Ships that were ordered when things looked much different. I think this is mostly supply/demand driven.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

"No I am not scared, and neither should you be!" - Iraqi Information Minister
Vegasradar
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Quote:
Lest you're inclined to believe in the "Growth Story" in China, let me point out that they apparently got caught attempting to claim Top Gun footage as having come from a military exercise. Yes, really.


smiley

I had to read that 3 times because it is so absurd!

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Be the change you want to see in the world. ~Mahatma Gandhi
Blackswan
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Gold
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Hahaha.. God I hope the Chinese don't remake the Top Gun homo beach vball scene. Not that there is anything wrong with that but please spare us.





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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
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Checkthisout
Posts: 167
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Green
Cary, NC
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How do you think the revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and others (Yemen, Gabon) will impact these numbers? The zombies are coming: http://english.aljazeera.net/watch_now/

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There are no gun free zones where free men tread.
Bagbalm
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"This is a pretty popular board...."

Yeah, yeah, call me when CNBC talks about ocular penetration. Popular and controlled are two different things. A controlled board will never allow harsh language.

Ct-hilltopper
Posts: 58
Incept: 2010-11-04

Connecticut
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We've kind of gone off topic on this thread, but let me continue with that trend...

I was watching the news this morning, and they were saying that in Egypt the government had pulled access to all internet, the Al-Jazerra (sp)...

They didn't want anyone posting videos to you-tube, making internet postings, or anything like that. There were news crews there, but they were the only ones (to my knowledge) being allowed to cover anything, unless people were smuggling their camera's out, or sending their files out to be posted.

If that was happening there when TSHTF, you can bet it will happen here.

I wish I could remember exactly what was said, but that's not happening. I got the gist of it though.

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I have certain rules I live by. My first rule: I don't believe anything the government tells me.
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Sushihorn
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"You've rost that ruving feering ..."

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Vegasradar
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smiley

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Ilikecoffee
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They have created enough misinformation so that everything is doubted.

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You can trust the government, ask any American Indian.

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Tickergroupie
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Quote:
If that was happening there when TSHTF, you can bet it will happen here.


Well, I hear Obama wants a kill switch. smiley

Genesis
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It's a lot harder to do here.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Xqqme
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For me, the BDI decline means falling general freight rates.
falling rates, increasing input costs in general.
But there's a lot of potash loads for the time being.
Gotta make hay when the sun shines.
Mouthofthesouth
Posts: 30
Incept: 2010-12-28

lee county al
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The BDI is totally useless because it doesn't consistently correlate with anything. Sometimes it is a perfect 1, sometimes -1, and sometimes it just meanders. The question is why does it seem to randomly flip its relationship to stock prices?
Tickergroupie
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Quote:
It's a lot harder to do here.


Glad to hear that, Gen. I could live without it, but I've become a bit of a Ticker/news junkie. smiley

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