But But But Deficits Were Coming Down!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2011-01-26 10:19
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
Ignore this thread
But But But Deficits Were Coming Down!
 

Uh huh......

For the federal government, the sharply lower revenues and elevated spending deriving from the financial turmoil and severe drop in economic activity—combined with the costs of various policies implemented in response to those conditions and an imbalance between revenues and spending that predated the recession—have caused budget deficits to surge in the past two years. The deficits of $1.4 trillion in 2009 and $1.3 trillion in 2010 are, when measured as a share of gross domestic product (GDP), the largest since 1945—representing 10.0 percent and 8.9 percent of the nation's output, respectively.

smiley

Uh, no.  First, calendar years guys.  Second, here's the chart:

There's the real numbers, from Treasury itself.  Those are not estimates, they're actual daily figures.

For 2011, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that if current laws remain unchanged, the federal budget will show a deficit of close to $1.5 trillion, or 9.8 percent of GDP.

That's $500 billion more than previously estimated.  I wrote about it at the time, since when the FICA tax reductions were passed the "contribution" to the deficit (which was easily calculable at about $450 billion, all in) were trivially able to be figured.  This of course meant that the alleged $1 trillion would not be $1 trillion, but rather would be $1.5 trillion, and that's if you believe the CBO's alleged "Deficit" numbers, which are bogus - as they account for cost-shifts and off-balance-sheet games.

In point of fact you have to look at the actual numbers "as borrowed"; when you do this you wind up with $1.7 trillion for calendar year 2010, and this means we're rather likely to post a $2 trillion number for calendar year 2011.

That is, if we get away with it, and I don't believe we will.  From the Annual Ticker:

We're not going to get away with spending another $450 billion in deficits on top of the $1.6 trillion we blew last year.  $2 trillion in deficits?  Not a prayer. 

The CBO now agrees with me on the size of the deficit.  They were late, but better late than never.

The deficits in CBO's baseline projections drop markedly over the next few years as a share of output and average 3.1 percent of GDP from 2014 to 2021. Those projections, however, are based on the assumption that tax and spending policies unfold as specified in current law. Consequently, they understate the budget deficits that would occur if many policies currently in place were continued, rather than allowed to expire as scheduled under current law.

There will be no "expiration" as that term assumes we will get to 2014-2021 before this entire fraudpile blows up in our faces.

That's not going to happen, and the orgasmic reaction you're seeing in the market to the supposed "liquidity-driven rally" is amusing.  Let's face reality here folks - liquidity is debt, not growth.

Debt has to be paid back - or defaulted.

Guess which one we'll be doing?

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User Info But But But Deficits Were Coming Down! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bogey
Posts: 1302
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Opening paragraph in the Jan 2001 projection (http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/27xx/doc2727/....

Quote:
In the absence of significant legislative changes
and assuming that the economy follows the path
described in this report, the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO) projects that the total surplus will
reach $281 billion in 2001. Such surpluses are projected
to rise in the future, approaching $889 billion
in 2011 and accumulating to $5.6 trillion over the
2002-2011 period.


Need we say more?

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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
R2judge
Posts: 571
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Durbin said no break in deficit spending until 2013. Trichet said no bond holder haircuts until 2013.

The 10 year cycle bottoms in 2014.
Dashingdwl
Posts: 9752
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Gold
los angeles
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It's different this time: Debt is good.

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When you are hard and disciplined, you can be principled. People fear you because they have no leverage against you. It's the truest form of Liberty.
Genesis
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Admin A True American Patriot!
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The CBO is always too low on deficit spending, because they always work off present law, which is all they have.

They, like everyone else, don't want to recognize that there are two alternatives - continue to compound the damage, or give up and eat the **** sandwich.

Congress ALWAYS does the first. Always. Has for the last 30 years, every time.

Until that changes, you have to assume that's what will continue.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Trades50
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Quote:
continue to compound the damage


Until somebody takes away the credit card. It may be a while.

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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
Bogey
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Have a look at how CBO's "projection" of the 2010 budget evolved over the years ...


Fiscal Year| Projection for 2010 (in $Billions)
2000 +489
2001 +796
2002 +294
2003 +140
2004 -261
2005 -189
2006 -222
2007 -137
2008 -241
2009 -703
2010 -1,349
2010 (Actual) -1294

Source: http://www.cbo.gov/publications/bysubjec....

Translation: Please don't give these or any other long-term projections the time of day. Visibility is no more than 1 or 2 years out, certainly never beyond the next election cycle. Always has been, always will be.

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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.

Billy_ray_v
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east of the rockies
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What is $600 Billion (MORE)in treasuries for $800 Alex
in 3,2,1

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When a country allows itself to be coerced,it has to suffer
the consequences.
Asdqwe
Posts: 132
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We are in such an extreme state of denial right now it's scary. The most frustrating part of this is of course the timing. How long can we print and borrow before the bubble pops. Bubbles can go a lot longer than you would think possible. And of course the resulting crash is worse. I know all you here know this all......Gonna go stock up on canned beans and rice tomorrow....Never know..
Jackl
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Incept: 2008-01-17

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No one cares until the deficits end up on their pay stubs. Even then they can't understand why withholding keeps getting larger and larger. Tis the way of the sheep. Not being able to put 2 and 2 together.
Karen1p
Posts: 155
Incept: 2010-10-26
Green
Reformed Liberal - turned gun owner, Ticker Gal
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Okay, this is off-topic. But, I am having too much fun this morning and thought I should share.

I have found phone numbers to quite a few of those bastards named on the Ambac lawsuit (you know the one, the emails "sack of ****".) And have been calling their Jewish community non-profits that all these bastards are board of directors for.

Surprisingly, I am getting a lot of "no comments." One non-profit lists "donate to families who've lost their homes." So, these bastards are donating money that they STOLE and then giving these families enough money to feed their families dinner? **** these *******s. I'm still waiting for that non-profit to call back....probably again, no comment.

Here's one phone number.....surprise, surprise, this guy lives on Central Park.

•Alan Greenberg
home

1 Central Park W

New York, NY 10023-7703

(212) 315-3277
Mortgageguymn
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Green
North Coast
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Yeah, but the CBO figures don't factor in a 5 year freeze on 12% of the budget. ;-) My congressman - Keith Ellison - says he's not down for that 5 year freeze. It's "unfair".

Literacy tests for voting are unconstitutional. How about numeracy tests, though?
Genesis
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Mtg: You don't think the refusal to teach the application of exponents to everyday life is unintentional, do you?

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Winstonsmith2009
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Keeping the Ponzi alive:

As Bankers Kill Off Mark-To-Market For Good, Former FDIC Chairman Gloats

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/bankers....
Mortgageguymn
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When people who are presumably educated & intelligent enough to understand the math - like Robert Reich (& Krugman)- operate under the simple assumption that "it'll all work out just like it did after the New Deal", I actually don't think one needs to posit a conspiracy to explain people's willful ignorance of what's coming (the cliff we're careening toward). If people choose not to see the differences between now and the 1950's, it just strikes me like someone saying "smoking's OK, since I smoked in my 20's and nothing happened".

Reich tells an anecdote about how his father greatly feared FDR's gov't debt. The "moral" of Reich's story is that his dad had been foolish. We know his dad had just been early. Reich's dad sounds like a good guy, although deficient in passing on his wisdom to his son.
Scrood
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Reich's father is not a good guy, because he procreated.

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CTRL-GALT-DELETE
End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9515
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The New 3rd World
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Quote:
Cheney to Treasury: "Deficits don't matter"
Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill was told "deficits don't matter" when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.



Dennis Miller has the answer:

Miller says U.S. should default on its debts because "nobody pays us"

Video:
http://mediamatters.org/mmtv/20100714005....


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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Xqqme
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It should be known that at the beginning of a dynasty, taxation yields a large revenue from small assessments. At the end of the dynasty, taxation yields a small revenue from large assessments.

'Abd-ar-Rah.mân Abű Zayd ibn Khaldűn, The Muqaddimah, An Introduction to History, Franz Rosenthal translation, abridged and edited by N.J. Dawood, Bollingen Series, Princeton University Press, 1967, p.230, quoted by Ronald Reagan [note].

maybe the progressives did understand human nature these past two years since they did not raise taxes when they had the chance with their majority. it would have been embarassing at least to raise taxes and see even lower revenues. is there anyone who actually think this can be fixed
Tm22721
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We were going over a cliff in the late 70s too. Then negative feedback kicked in - 15% rates. Yeah 1982 was a bad year. But we lived through it. What, me worry ?

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The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.

The only way up is down.
Corn1945
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Quote:
We were going over a cliff in the late 70s too. Then negative feedback kicked in - 15% rates. Yeah 1982 was a bad year. But we lived through it. What, me worry ?


That's what should be happening today. Where are those 15% rates? No where to be found.

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