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Along with Facebook I'd add twitter to the how you going to make money theme.

I don't have an account - but I've got a few Twitter accounts bookmarked just for hockey stuff. If it had ads, I never see them - and I'd sure as hell never click on them.

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Facebook is ok if you can handle running into old girlfriends.

That's why you find them first, and then block them [and anyone else you don't want finding you] from seeing your profile. I've been told it really*****es them off. :)

Cobra-

How would you like to hear about my air taxi service, an alternative to commercial flights? No waiting, no crowds, no TSA, & better service, comparable to business class on a cramped airline. How about a discounted gold star membership to the ticker forum?

That's valuable information, and with some more demographic data I could sell you a Helicopter Ben T-Shirt, ask you to donate to my libertarian political campaign, and how about a free box of shotgun shells with your bulk canned good purchase.

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$100,000 buys you a top notch programmer for a year

Sadly...you're right. I pity any 'top notch' programmer that slaves away at Facebook for only that kind of money, when anything livable for a house in the SFBay area starts at $700-$800k.

Imagine that, working for one of the top companies in the SFBay area (whether it be Google, Cisco, Facebook, etc.), and not even being able to buy, with your salary, a reasonable house with 3X your income.

60% of 500M are Indian free-loaders on FB. FB is biggest bust in history of social sites and have no chance of making any money since most users are Indian nationals. The user numbers may be very deceiving. How many of them have any potential to buy goods or add value ?

Just to play Devil's Advocate for a moment...

I have a Facebook account, and have had it for ~6ish years. I was a freshman in college when it first came out in 2004, and basically everyone (myself included) registered.

I've watched it morph and grow from a relatively small gathering of college students to a gargantuan social media giant.

Facebook allows me to easily stay in contact with friends both local and in far-away places. Or for the way I use it -- it allows me to see what they're doing; I don't really post much, I usually just lurk...kinda like TickerForum.

In terms of Facebook being a privacy nightmare, I agree and disagree. Yes the company has some of my personal info -- an outdated email address, my birthday, name, and a few photos. On the other hand, I have my privacy settings clamped down tight so you basically can't find me unless I go looking for you first.

Facebook makes me cringe. I have no doubt at all that their entire feed likely goes to the NSA. James Bamford wrote a book (three, actually) on the NSA. Here is an extended interview with him on the day his third book "The Shadow Factory: The Ultra-Secret NSA from 9/11 to the Eavesdropping on America" came out. Bamford even goes into some of the technical aspects. The NSA not only spies on Americans, but they store the raw data. Facebook must make their job even easier. We are funding this.

Pretty sick.

http://www.democracynow.org/2008/10/14/j....

In the context of this story, the most insane part is that it's entirely possible that Facebook could simply be a fad and not some long-term change in the way people do things. Twitter too.

The assumption a lot of people seem to make about Facebook is that people will use it into the indefinite future because it's a permanent shift in the way people do things, like the invention of the automobile or something. It seems like a rather pretentious viewpoint.

Somebody could have made the same mistake with chat rooms. Who uses chat rooms anymore, even to speak with people that you know? I remember back in high school (just 5 years ago) how everybody was addicted to AOL Instant Messenger. Nobody I know uses that anymore.

Clearly, some things associated with the internet (the internet itself, online shopping, e-mail, search engines, etc.) are a secular trend, but is Facebook? I'm not sure.

I have to admit; I am biased because it's stupid what most people use Facebook for. It isn't about keeping in touch with people; it's about self-promotion and providing "updates" about what you're doing so you can get pats on the back from your "friends."

I made a page about 4 or 5 years ago, before it really took off. I guess the only reason I have it is in case of the off chance I would need or want to get in touch with somebody I hadn't seen in awhile and couldn't contact in some other way. In that regard, it is a good idea.

This.

Remember Yahoo IM? So do I. Who uses it any more now that we have unlimited text messages? Uh....

Yeah.

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This.

Remember Yahoo IM? So do I. Who uses it any more now that we have unlimited text messages? Uh....

Yeah.

Some people still use it, although I'm sure not as much as awhile ago.

We use Yahoo IM at work. We were also told to download Skype due to the possibility of some upper management doing some international travel shortly.

I use Skype once in a while. But I used to run ICQ. It is still around, but nobody I know is on it any more. Same with Yahoo IM - used to be how I talked to people via text - not any more.

Point being that Facebook is today's fad and "way". Tomorrow it'll be something else. That much is a near-certainty, which means that any valuation model that has more than a 12-24 month time horizon is idiotic.

And we can't validate the numbers, because we don't have them, which makes it even more idiotic.

http://techcrunch.com/2011/01/04/faceboo....

Maybe this is what they are up to with the GS $$...

Personally, I'd pick the Sun Asylum in Santa Clara over Sun Quentin in Menlo park, but they probably can't get the hipsters that work there to go that far south.

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adly...you're right. I pity any 'top notch' programmer that slaves away at Facebook for only that kind of money, when anything livable for a house in the SFBay area starts at $700-$800k.

Imagine that, working for one of the top companies in the SFBay area (whether it be Google, Cisco, Facebook, etc.), and not even being able to buy, with your salary, a reasonable house with 3X your income.

This is very very true. If you check the H1B postings out here a Senior Programmer (basically a good grunt programmer with 10 years exp) will net about $125k max. Given my samplings of the past year I'd say that's about true.

I currently rent a 1000sqft place in Sunnyvale that runs $2k a month rent. Mostly surrounded by houses with 5-10 mexicans living in them. I actually find it better than the higher class 1br apartment I was in that was $1900 a month. I can't stand the smell of indian cooking and well....

Gen, that is true of any technology company's product. Take Apple's iPhone. If they continued to flog the iPhone 4 into the next decade, chances are sales would be quite small by then. Their business model is to be the first out with the next must-have gadget that they can market to their "captive" audience.

If Facebook can do the same, (i.e. be the first out with the next "must use" web gadget) that they can offer their captive audience, then they're in business - if they can monetize it...

This is true of any fashion-driven product, indeed any product. Just that fashion and technology make the product cycle time mind-bogglingly short!

Only until someone jumps them....and someone eventually will.

Have facebook account too, but they don't make a dime off me with ads...I block them from showing up. :)

Extrapolating that figure gives a $473.3 mil yearly net income for a P/E of ~105 at the IPO valuation, if my calculations are correct. (Earnings = net income, yes?)

But, it's different this time. Really.

Karl, Facebook makes money like MySpace does...

http://www.betanews.com/article/Still-tr....


Err, I mean it doesn't make money like MySpace doesn't...LOL

I use Yahoo IM, and Google Chat. Basically whatever my colleagues and friends are using, so we can communicate.

FB sucks. I hate the layout and I only have one page for business reasons.

Remember AIM? Remember when they added stupid annoying ads to the top of their client? Then remember when those ads started making sounds?

The rush of people to Trillian and other AIM clients was audible (barely, over the stupid AIM audio ads).

GS + Facebook = Two Toxic Bubbles

http://tickerforum.org/akcs-www?post=177....