Price Discovery: Uh, No - Just More Theft
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-12-12 14:13
by Karl Denninger
in Corruption
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Price Discovery: Uh, No - Just More Theft
 

There are two "social goods" that merit the existence of a "strong" capital market.

Those are capital formation and price discovery.

Capital formation happens only when an original issue is created.  That is, when a company comes to market with an IPO, when it takes "Angel Investor" money, or when it is seeded by the founder's savings.  It is capital formation that creates new jobs, new industries, and innovation.  It is capital formation that justifies, in the main, the existence and maintenance of a capital market structure such stock exchanges, bond markets and similar. 

Price discovery is what everything else in the capital markets devolves down into.  Price discovery is the short term for haggling - negotiation, auctions, disagreement over value.  One party is later proved right, and the other proved wrong.  There is no job creation, innovation or industry that is put forward by price discovery.  However, without price discovery Capital Formation becomes extremely difficult in any sort of public market, since there is no means available to know if you're forming capital at a reasonable rate of return other than by the experiences of others.  It is therefore a necessary function and a social good.

But price discovery requires public markets.  That is, it requires exposition of bid, offer and size where we can all see it.  In addition a public market must demand that the participants be able to clear the trades they put on - that is, that if they claim they intend to buy or sell something, they have the economic power (or ability to acquire the product or service to be sold or bought) prior to entering into the transaction and for the entire period that the position remains open.

As soon as you get rid of the public exposition of these elements, said market is no longer a market - it is now a mechanism to steal.

And that's exactly what the banks have been doing - and continue to do - when it comes to derivatives.

On the third Wednesday of every month, the nine members of an elite Wall Street society gather in Midtown Manhattan.

The men share a common goal: to protect the interests of big banks in the vast market for derivatives, one of the most profitable — and controversial — fields in finance. They also share a common secret: The details of their meetings, even their identities, have been strictly confidential.

Strictly confidential eh?  Even their names are secret?

This is no small - or laughing - matter.  If you heat with oil in the home, this winter you may have "locked in" a price before it got cold for the winter on a per-gallon basis.  You did this because the company you contacted with entered into a derivative trade - that is, he bought forward your expected consumption, paying a (hopefully small) premium now as effective "insurance" against a price spike. 

But this sort of "insurance" only works in a transparent manner if the people selling it and buying it are doing so in the public eye.  If they're not - and if one or more of them are suppressing that price discovery through secrecy then the "spread" - or the amount that you pay for the contract, is not matter of auction - that is, bidding by multiple people.

Rather, it is set by a cartel. 

Cartel behavior in the United States - ala OPEC - is supposed to be broadly illegal.

They wouldn't be doing that, would they?

The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available.

Oh I guess they might be.

See, secrecy is the only way to protect outsized margins - what economists call "economic rents."  If you have an open auction-style market, "rents" fall until there is nobody willing to provide the service requested at a cheaper price. 

Indeed, that's the point of price-discovery, in part - to discover the price at which someone will clear a transaction - not just the price of a given good or service.

But heh, what's an extra few tens of billions of dollars that is effectively stolen from consumers and producers across the economic spectrum through cartel-like behavior - behavior that, under existing anti-trust law, should be considered illegal.

It's not like this is new, right, nor is buying off regulators - like The Fed, like the CFTC, like Congress....

(For extra credit, look up "What is a CDO^2 and why could you never independently value it.")

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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Halfbrite
Posts: 2459
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KD, I will say once again, this is the business model of both banking and insurance. While both parties know the cost paid for the product, the SELLERS,BANKS KNOW THE VALUE OF THE PRODUCT while the BUYERS, THE PUBLIC, DO NOT. It's a government granted license to steal via cheating, fraud, and corruption, and it's predominate in insurance and banking products. These industries became hopelessly corrupt beginning in about 1967. Derivatives are just another example of the same systemic, central problem. What these industries do is no different than a used car dealer stuffing a transmission full of sawdust and rolling back the speedometer. If you are employed in either one of these industries, don't get too good on yourself, because 50% of your income is undeserved and derived via fraud and cheating others.


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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Dburn
Posts: 165
Incept: 2009-09-10
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The NYT's article is not surprising it's more of a confirmation of what many of us have suspected all along.I also make an assumption that this cartel discusses, plans and executes other ideas to "consolidate" their holdings. The transfer of wealth to the upper 1% is almost certainly a function of this Cartel.

That leaves one conclusion only: The economy will never recover until these banks are broken up while rules with teeth and active enforcement caps the growth of assets and leverage for banks with zero loophole tolerances for things like Bank holding Companies*. Captive regulators should only have one definition. They are captive for 25 years to life in a federal penitentiary

Really the main bill is only 17 pages long. That would be a huge leap ahead if Glass Steagull was resurrected from death by lobbying dollars.

*Isn't it interesting that WaMu is a Bank Holding Company. They had put themselves up for sale before the failure. JPM offered around 8 Billion then quietly withdrew it. The banks under the BHC were taken over by the FDIC and sold to JPM for 1.9 Billion. Now we hear that taking down BHC's can't be done becuase of the complexity involved. I just ****ing hate getting lied too.

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Photobee
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One more reason to withold your support of the machine. To starve it out of existence. To boycott everything related to this and the people who perpetrate it.

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God didn't make all men equal, Col. Colt did.
Joshua_d
Posts: 163
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Lenoir, NC
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So, is that total debt about $53 Trillion, or more (what comes after trillion)? I'm not sure I'm reading the numbers right!
Jwm_in_sb
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Like I said a few days ago about the mortgage mess, this is all about keeping a handful of motherf*ckers in Manhattan in Bentleys and Bespokes. THAT IS WHAT ALL OF THIS **** IS ABOUT. ALL OF IT.

Victorberry
Posts: 155
Incept: 2010-01-12

Bedford, TX
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First, let's see if I understand what a CDO is. A CDO appears to be a bond fund created out of thin air. As the market maker, someone like Goldman-Sachs puts up the initial $1B or $2B for the CDO. GS derives the bond price/coupon using mathematical formulas applied to select groups of monitored MBS, which comprise the CDO tranches. GS prints up some pretty bonds for the CDO "IPO" and hopefully sells all $1B or $2B worth of them to investors. GS collects fees for its market maker activities with the CDO bonds and maybe skims a little of the coupon interest payments for itself. GS buys CDS (i.e., insurance) from AIG to cover the whole $1B or $2B CDO in case the bonds go bust and investors put-back the bonds on the market maker GS.

A CDO^2 is also a bond fund, but I think it's created out of even thinner air using other CDO as the basis instead of MBS. The same abovementioned steps are followed except select groups of CDO comprise the CDO^2 tranches and are monitored for valuation of the CDO^2 bond price/coupon.

CDO and CDO^2 are purely paper concoctions since neither has any "real" underlying assets. Bond liquidity is guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the market maker GS and its product insurer AIG.

I'm sure someone will be happy to correct me if I got any or all of the explanation wrong.
Patentleathershoes
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Victor: good explanation.

We need to start a lobby. If you could get every unemployed and in danger of being unemployed American to donate a buck a month you'd have a lot of lobbying power.

I agree that this is about preservation of the Hamptons. And they've applied maximum pressure to make it so.

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Jwm_in_sb
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Quote:
I agree that this is about preservation of the Hamptons. And they've applied maximum pressure to make it so.


Oh yeah, you bet they are. They've screwed so many people as well the country so badly that they know they're done. Not just current new wealth, but old wealth as well. If we truly do get to the point of prosecuting these bastards, there will be a lot of old money that goes poof overnight.
Patentleathershoes
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Jwm:

I'm sure they will all be in other countries with non-friendly extraditon laws to the US. But you are right about the rest.

It's sad to know how badly our politicians are owned.

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"An unborn child's property rights are protected by law. His right to life is not." Ronald Reagan
Mannfm11
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This explains how the prices of some of this stuff are rigged. $70 oil when the world was afloat with it wasn't achieved in a free market, but a market financed by next to no cost credit from the Fed and collusion amongst traders. The difference between $50 and $70 is $400 million per day and the corner of maybe 1 billion barrels would yield a $20 billion profit if the buck could be passed.

I would suggest a discovery, how far you can put a 12 gauge shotgun down one of these bankers throats before it comes out his ass. Maybe a tree chipper parked on Wall Street with one of these guys thrown in it for a demonstration. We might even let Bernanke go first, seeing as he is involved in covering this stuff up. I sense that copper and oil have been cornered for years. It takes collusion by several parties. Also, the willingness to let the prices of some of these swaps move has to do with who is going to get screwed by the price movement. How much do you want to bet that nothing moves without agreement? How likely is it that every derivatives deal these guys did with places like Birmingham AL or Harvard University placed the customer on the wrong side of the trade? In the case of the heating oil company, they have their bag taker lined up along with his customers. The real price for entry is TBTF, too big to fail. Maybe too big not to ****.

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Genesis
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Feet first on the chipper.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Peterm99
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On "slow feed".

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". . . the Constitution has died, the economy welters in irreversible decline, we have perpetual war, all power lies in the hands of the executive, the police are supreme, and a surveillance beyond Orwell’s imaginings falls into place." - Fred Reed
G.h.
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"See, secrecy is the only way to protect outsized margins - what economists call "economic rents." If you have an open auction-style market, "rents" fall until there is nobody willing to provide the service requested at a cheaper price."

Aren't professional athletes salaries made public, in fact, boasted about? And aren't those salaries a perfect example of "outsized margins", the kind referred to as "economic rent"?

Example, Joe Athlete, without his football career, could only make about $40K/yr. driving a forklift with overtime. But he makes $2M/yr. as a running back. The $1,960,000.00 difference is "economic rent", correct?

Jerry Jones doesn't have to be secretive about providing for his players "outsized margins". And free-agency is simply an auction right? Is my analogy on or off target?
Genesis
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Nobody does what Joe Athlete does for less than $2/year.

Oh wait.... there IS a monopoly in that game, isn't there? Hmmm.... artificial barriers to entry? Yep. Hmmm...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Whatturn
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Victorberry,

Yes, brilliantly explained, but I want to say out-loud that which you so artfully wove (“full faith and credit” – I love it!) into your description of the source of “bond liquidity”.

Bond liquidity is guaranteed by the full faith and credit of the US government as captured via the purchase of political power by corporations, and controlled, now, by institutions such as GS and AIG.

Mo
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Everyone involved in this should be charge with racketeering.

Really, when this all started in 2007, I though we were dealing with a massive housing bubble, not that criminal gangs had taken over the governments of the western world. At all levels.

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Halfbrite
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Quote:
Really, when this all started in 2007, I though we were dealing with a massive housing bubble, not that criminal gangs had taken over the governments of the western world. At all levels.


Bingo - Mo, you are now officially "awake"! Now whatch gonna do about it?

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"That which cannot continue, will not continue. Brace for impact!"
Mooreupp
Posts: 366
Incept: 2007-10-31
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Ohio
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Just sent e-mails to my senators and represenative. Varied a little, but basically like this:

Dear Senator Voinovich,

I am a 26 year old Republican in your state, but I need to know the GOP is not turning socialist. Read this quote carefully,

"The banks in this group, which is affiliated with a new derivatives clearinghouse, have fought to block other banks from entering the market, and they are also trying to thwart efforts to make full information on prices and fees freely available. "

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=1....

This is the definition of a cartel, goes completely against free market capitalism, and is completely illegal. Are you for socialism or law and order? Stop the looting, start the prosecuting!

Eric Upp

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Sushihorn
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How DARE those scum meet secretly to pervert the functions of the market and yet try to hide behind a "free market" position. Here is what the Godfather of the Free Market had to say on the matter:

Quote:
People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise prices.

--- Adam Smith

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