But But But.... Hosing (sic) Was Improving!
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-11-30 13:12
by Karl Denninger
in Housing
Ignore this thread
But But But.... Hosing (sic) Was Improving!
 

Well, no, it's hosing. 

You. 

And the economy.

The Standard & Poor's/Case-Shiller composite index of 20 metropolitan areas declined 0.8 percent in September from August on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Economists polled by Reuters had expected a decline of 0.3 percent.

Yeah.  Remember, it was all going to be ok.

Well, no it's not.

And what's worse is that the cause of this is entirely the government which has tried to prevent asset price deflation - yet that's exactly what's necessary to clear the market!

As Gary Shilling said:

Shilling expects another 20 percent drop in home prices.

"As prices go down, more people get underwater, leading people to walk away," leading to more write-downs by the banks, Shilling said "That will be Act II in the whole drama of the housing collapse," Shilling said.

The big banks must be taken into receivership NOW.

Force the bad debts into the open, write them off, and for each institution that this bankrupts, recognize it and reorganize them.

That's what bankruptcy law is for, it's why it's in the Constitution, and it's the proper move to make.

We should have done it in 2007, we should have done it in 2008, and we should do it now.

Nobody wants to, but this isn't about "wants."  It's about what we can realistically support in the economy and whether the debt levels are sustainable.

They're not.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info But But But.... Hosing (sic) Was Improving! in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mschemeng
Posts: 180
Incept: 2010-10-03

Toronto ON
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good on Reggie for screaming on this one for months

anyway Karl, check out this link, I think you will hit the roof...

http://www.lewrockwell.com/rogers/rogers....
Asdqwe
Posts: 132
Incept: 2010-06-18


Banned
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And speaking of the banks...About 2 weeks ago various debit machines across multiple retail stores (pizza joints, grocery stores, the store I work at) would not work at all. No debit transactions would go through. Credit cards would go.

Now yesterday and today my BAC bill pay through my credit cards is coming up "select a funding account" instead of the usual choice of which card to use to pay bills online with. I know, I know, I've been meaning to switch to my local bank that I have my checking, etc. with I am just another lazy American. These are MBIA cards that BAC bought out and yeah I'm still guilty....

But anyhoo....Is the interbank cash drying up, causing banks to create these snafus to due to no funds? Or is my tinfoil hat just on backwards?
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3590
Incept: 2008-08-19

Farmingdale, NY
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Been having this arguement with Barry Ritholtz over on his blog for about 6 months now after he too called a BOTTOM in housing.

By the way Gen...he loves to read your comments...he finds you amusing.

Maybe he should start reading you to learn something.... He lives here on Long Island where I live, but he has no clue how the other 90% of the people here live. He is definitely a North Shore idiot...through and through.

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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.

Zenthunder
Posts: 6826
Incept: 2007-10-11
Green
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20%???

It will be steeper than that - rates at historic lows, gobment printing money and bonds yet to collapse, in addition to inventory overhang, foreclosuregate AND two more years of resets incoming?

smiley

The ONLY way they can prevent home prices from cratering from here is if they set cost controls on dollar per sq foot. Eh comrades?


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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
Smacktle
Posts: 1361
Incept: 2009-01-20
Green
Texas
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The faults of the burglar are the qualities of the financier.
- George Bernard Shaw
Scotsman
Posts: 54
Incept: 2007-07-15

Great NW
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More discussion and some nice inter-active charts:

http://seattlebubble.com/blog/2010/11/30....

Gloomboomdoom
Posts: 236
Incept: 2010-06-25
Green
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This video keeps getting deleted all over the web. I know it is probably against forums rules, but I will risk getting my account deleted.

THIS CHANGED ME AS A PERSON, AS A CHRISTIAN and more importantly as an American.

I still cry unprovoked each and every time I watch this video. (I am a dude, btw). I really hope it isn't too late!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CBtL3NIcA....

Glenn Beck won't talk about MLK in this context!

Bonus Content! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5pRP_T5n....

Snowman
Posts: 1798
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
avoiding yellow snow
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20-25%% is about right to line up median income with median housing prices. But it may have to further to take into consideration household debt, which is barely budging. I.e., income and home prices are in line, but there is still debt overhang.
Erica712
Posts: 1910
Incept: 2009-03-16
Green
Central FL
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When we sold our house in Georgia back in May, I had our Realtor run the Case-Shiller "projected market value" numbers out as far as they would go (November). Price was projected to drop and keep dropping. That's why we decided to sell then (at a loss of almost $40k). I knew it was only going to get worse if we waited.

Gen_maximus57
Posts: 4580
Incept: 2007-09-03
Green
Tampa
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It won't revert to the mean until it over shoots the mean on the downside. Just like everything else.
Shoobedoowa
Posts: 1632
Incept: 2007-06-27
Gold
Thailand
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It will be a lower mean.

Going forward, taxes at all levels will be higher. Inflation will expand budgets toward food, energy, etc., leaving a smaller portion of income available to be devoted towards shelter.

Also, if the ability to deduct mortgage interest from income is eliminated, the equation changes in a major way.

Housing in absolute terms, will not be saved by the commonly accepted threshold of price/income. Housing can only be saved by excessive and unrelenting inflation. In real terms, housing will go well below the normally accepted ratios of value to income.......and stay there.
Randy123
Posts: 5776
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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Demographics will push it far lower than people think is possible. Bottom late this decade.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Zenthunder
Posts: 6826
Incept: 2007-10-11
Green
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Yes Randy - we wont get a demographic turn up until end of the decade... until then boomer draw on assets will flatten it at the least, barring a print-fest.

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*** FRAUD is NOT a business model.
HOPE is not a business plan!
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