Comcast: Pay Or No Play (NFLX, CMCSA)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-11-29 17:50
by Karl Denninger
in Company Specific
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Comcast: Pay Or No Play (NFLX, CMCSA)
 

smiley

Gee, who was talking about this?

On a forward basis I think these guys are digging their own grave.  Moving toward a fully-online content delivery system sounds great, but it's only great because they're poaching other people's build-out costs.  Theirs are near zero - their only recurring cost is for whoever they pay for distribution.  But in the Internet world that's people like Akami (AKAM) and similar; it's not the people who built the lines into your home - those are Netflix' competitors in this case!

Oh yeah..... now I remember smiley

So it should be no surprise that now we get this:

“On November 19, 2010, Comcast informed Level 3 that, for the first time, it will demand a recurring fee from Level 3 to transmit Internet online movies and other content to Comcast’s customers who request such content. By taking this action, Comcast is effectively putting up a toll booth at the borders of its broadband Internet access network, enabling it to unilaterally decide how much to charge for content which competes with its own cable TV and Xfinity delivered content. This action by Comcast threatens the open Internet and is a clear abuse of the dominant control that Comcast exerts in broadband access markets as the nation’s largest cable provider.

Actually, it probably has more to do with a little "hot potato" game being played with the traffic, where Comcast is effectively being told to cover the buildout costs for all those people watching Netflix movies - and which L3, I believe, carries and caches traffic for.

“While the network neutrality debate in Washington has focused on what actions a broadband access provider might take to filter, prioritize or manage content requested by its subscribers, Comcast’s decision goes well beyond this. With this action, Comcast is preventing competing content from ever being delivered to Comcast’s subscribers at all, unless Comcast’s unilaterally-determined toll is paid – even though Comcast’s subscribers requested the content. With this action, Comcast demonstrates the risk of a ‘closed’ Internet, where a retail broadband Internet access provider decides whether and how their subscribers interact with content.

No, Comcast is saying that it has built a business and pricing model that reflects what it believes are reasonable amounts of data interchange with other networks, and that this interchange will happen in a form, fashion, and place that allocates costs in a reasonable fashion.  It is also saying that it believes L3 is violating that premise, and therefore, it's going to stop it.

“Given Comcast’s currently stated position, we are approaching regulators and policy makers and asking them to take quick action to ensure that a fair, open and innovative Internet does not become a closed network controlled by a few institutions with dominant market power that have the means, motive and opportunity to economically discriminate between favored and disfavored content.“

It's not about content, it's about volume and flows, and who pays for the infrastructure build necessary to handle them.

What amounts to poaching other people's resources works well right up until you drive that other party into the wall and force them to spend a crapload of money for which they receive nothing in return.  That is, they don't receive any renumeration for the additional expense - but you do!

This is the base problem with all overcommitted services where the business model is predicated on fractional use of maximum possible resource consumption.  When that model is violated costs go up dramatically.  This is ok provided the person who has the cost also gets the revenue that is occasioned by the violation of the original model.

But in the case at hand, Netflix and similar get the revenue, but Comcast gets the cost.

I saw this one coming a mile away.  If L3 manages to get the FCC involved and Comcast is prohibited from doing this they will be forced instead to either cap-and-charge customers or dramatically raise their prices, which will also blow back on the content folks like Netflix.

Suddenly that $8 "video any time" subscription becomes not $8, but $28 as Comcast adds another $20 to your monthly cable internet bill.

And there goes the pricing model that everyone loves so much about Netflix!

Disclosure: NFLX continues to be HTB, which is a damn shame.

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User Info Comcast: Pay Or No Play (NFLX, CMCSA) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Kiddynamite
Posts: 27
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Genesis - I think Comcast is approaching this horribly, in a way that will get all the Net Neutrality guys up in arms.

Let me be clear - I believe that Comcast has the right to charge for their bandwidth, so they should do that! I currently get 250GB a month from them, and, despite being online all day every day, use roughly 15GB. They should change the cap to 50GB or something that will only effect streaming video users, and charge them more for extra bandwidth.

But their approach, which according to Level 3 is basically "we'll charge you a fee to stream Netflix over our pipes" seems asinine and destined to be met with serious resistance.
Mespe
Posts: 9
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NE Ohio
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Karl,

Let it stay a free market. When Netflix movies start pausing due to bandwidth constraints, Netlix will lose customers. Comcast built a network to deliver data, it shouldn't matter what type data flies over the wires.

when comcast customers start losing packets it will selfcorrect.
Genesis
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There's a backstory here, which likely is that they tried to get L3 to pull (at their expense) private interconnects to their major hubs and were told to **** off.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wawawa
Posts: 249
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San Diego, CA
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what is HTB?

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RAT RACE IS OVER, RATS WON :)
Droplet
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Hard to borrow.
Karen1p
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If everyone would just get rid of their Comcast TV and tell them to "**** off" with their $100 cable bills, we would again, have free TV. I will only pay for ******n TV when and if they stop selling ads.
Snowman
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guess it's time to dust off blockbuster.
I still have a dual deck VCR recorder in the basement. Open a shop in the garage?
Kiddynamite
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ironic: the sponsored ad I was just served in the middle of this thread was for Comcast Business Class internet, phone, TV: $99

and oh, Karen: $100 cable bills? I wish... I pay $45 for internet, $15 each for two HD DVRs, $5 for a cable modem, and $90 for premium cable (HBO, MAX, STRZ, SHO)... brutal. I tried to cut this, but all i could really do was ditch the movie channels and save $25 a month. The marginal price of the base services are so high anyway.
Markgoldman
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If ISPs would just charge fair value for each GB, rather than extorting both of my testicles with outrageous overage fees ($1/GB, wtf?) we could put the entire net neutrality argument to bed. Everyone gets a slice, and the consumer gets the content they want...too ****ing simple.

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Consent Withdrawn.
Antone
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Seditionia, USSA
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Karl, why don't you just put on a synthetic short via options (like buy the Jan 11 200 put, sell the Jan 11 200 call)?

Personally, I'm looking at selling some vertical calls.

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As if anything has changed:

Wir sind gefickt.
Ugrev
Posts: 147
Incept: 2010-03-08

The police state of NY
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I don't know how comcast advertises their service, but Verizon and Time Warner don't advertise limitations. My response to all of this is " Don't advertise high-speed/fast/fat service if you're not going to support it. Expect that people will use it ALL; and **** off with the fine print. Advertise it upfront on the commercials in big, fat, letters if you won't support streaming services or high usage".

If you ask me, consumers are getting the shaft as a result. There isn't a lot of competition in this arena. I don't consider 2 major companies competition.. I consider them friends in a love/hate relationship. Truth in advertising is a must, otherwise, you're a liar or trying to hide something sneaky in which case you should eat ****. This is predatory advertisement, IMO.
Genesis
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Quote:
My response to all of this is " Don't advertise high-speed/fast/fat service if you're not going to support it. Expect that people will use it ALL; and **** off with the fine print.

Providing what you're asking for (e.g. no overcommits) is a $200+/month proposition.

If you're willing to pay that, fine.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Billonthehill
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Will end up on FCC desk.

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"Interesting to be talking about Deeds of Trust. When there is no trust." - Anonymous Caller to KOH Reno Talk Radio 10.21.10“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”Churchill 36

"
Genesis
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And won't matter. The FCC can't change the cost equation.

They can demand Comcast stop this, but that results in them raising rates or capping the consumer end.

Either way, the game's over.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Billonthehill
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Truth up.

The cost will end up with the consumer. I made my profit in the glory days of the internet when I could oversell the internet 50 to 1 and get away with it. We used to grin when the billing results came in and we saw how many times a 12 meg backhaul could be split. With a bit of overhead room.

Now, that will not support 100 clients adequately. So glad I ran to the sell exit. Internet video has matured.

Cost of internet is going up. Fine by me. I am paying the next door neighbor for her Network key. $20 per month with a open router broadcasting for emergency. I no longer need the widepipe like you Karl. I just need a burst now and then.

How soon is the game over? First break of support on NFLX?

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"Interesting to be talking about Deeds of Trust. When there is no trust." - Anonymous Caller to KOH Reno Talk Radio 10.21.10“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”Churchill 36

"
Ozonehole
Posts: 104
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Taiwan
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Karl, you don't seem to care much for Net Neutrality. You do realize that sooner or later, blogs like this one may get hit with big extra fees or reduced bandwidth if you don't pay. It's not that this blog uses a lot of bandwidth, it's just that somebody (I can think of a few big banks, for example) who would happily pay Comcast or Verizon to shut you down. In other words, a back door to censorship. That is what the Net Neutrality debate is all about, not online movies.

But back to the specific example before us: If Comcast wants to set a bandwidth maximum limit per month of 250 GB for a set fee (and they explicitly state this), then customers should be entitled to use that entire amount without additional charges being imposed on the content provider (in this case, Netflix). Until now, Comcast was banking on the fact that few people use the bandwidth they pay for. However, the advent of high-bandwidth content (Youtube, bittorrent, Netflix, etc) more and more folks will be hitting the limit.

If Comcast feels that the current billing system is being abused, then it should be changed. The correct thing to do is to sell packages at different prices according to bandwidth usage, just like with prepaid cell phone service (so many minutes per month for X dollars). And it should always be possible for a user to find out how many minutes (or in this case, GB of data) that he/she has already used. That is to say, you should always be able to click on an icon or go to a web page and clearly see how much you've used and how much you have remaining before you go over the monthly limit. Of course, Comcast would rather you didn't know, since you'd be more likely to use too much and get hit with a whopping big bill.

I personally don't have cable TV. I do have a DVD player, which gets a lot use.

Ernunnos
Posts: 33
Incept: 2009-09-04

Phoenix, AZ
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Customers will go with whoever can provide the service.

Now that WiMax is rolling out, more people have more choices. It's not available in my area yet, but I watched Netflix at my sister's house on a WiMax network over the holiday. As with anything else, competition will prevail, if it's allowed to. Given that this bottleneck is primarily a matter of caching servers + metro fiber, whoever can implement it most cheaply and pass that savings on to customers will win. Assuming, of course, that the established interests don't get laws passed to protect their business models.

Also note that "implement" could be just a matter of choosing the right partners. Being jerks to the content providers who give your customers a reason to maintain an internet connection in the first place is not exactly a good first step. Netflix has shown itself to be a good partner with tons of hardware makers. Buy a TV or a Blu Ray player or a game console these days, and it will probably come with a Netflix interface built in. I'll bet that they'll be able to come to similar arrangements with just about any ISP that isn't completely hidebound.

Comcast might not be willing to, but I'll bet Clear would love to tell customers that their service is "Netflix optimized" and charge a reasonable fee for data center space and interconnects for Netflix cache servers. That's a co-branding opportunity and selling point, no different than the Netflix logos I saw today on PS3 boxes. One that becomes more valuable the more their competition tries to dun customers for actually using the service they were sold.
Genesis
Posts: 131486
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Quote:
Karl, you don't seem to care much for Net Neutrality. You do realize that sooner or later, blogs like this one may get hit with big extra fees or reduced bandwidth if you don't pay. It's not that this blog uses a lot of bandwidth, it's just that somebody (I can think of a few big banks, for example) who would happily pay Comcast or Verizon to shut you down. In other words, a back door to censorship. That is what the Net Neutrality debate is all about, not online movies.

No it's not.

That's a horse**** claim and you know it. And further, I'm not much for horse**** around here, especially not in this sort of instance, since I ran one of these companies (an ISP) for a long time.

The issue here is that the definition you use for "net neutrality" is "my profit, your cost." Sorry, but no. And indeed, since that's the way you're using the system here - you've donated nothing, but obviously you think you get something of value, would you like a personal demonstration? I'll be happy to oblige.

Quote:
But back to the specific example before us: If Comcast wants to set a bandwidth maximum limit per month of 250 GB for a set fee (and they explicitly state this), then customers should be entitled to use that entire amount without additional charges being imposed on the content provider (in this case, Netflix). Until now, Comcast was banking on the fact that few people use the bandwidth they pay for. However, the advent of high-bandwidth content (Youtube, bittorrent, Netflix, etc) more and more folks will be hitting the limit.

You clearly don't understand how it works. No, you're not paying for an unrestricted 24x7 pipe of "X" bits/second where that's the advertised maximum speed. You simply aren't.

Claims that you are in fact doing so are knowing lies as the company makes a clear representation that these are maximum speeds and not guarantees of performance nor are these circuits intended for this sort of 24x7 hammering. In fact, the TOS typically prohibits ANY servers - including p2p servers - on your circuit for exactly this reason, and sometimes there are port filters designed to enforce that.

Quote:
If Comcast feels that the current billing system is being abused, then it should be changed. The correct thing to do is to sell packages at different prices according to bandwidth usage, just like with prepaid cell phone service (so many minutes per month for X dollars).

IF the FCC tries to shove a net neutrality argument up Comcast's ass (and they might) that is EXACTLY what will come of it.

Again, it's about money. Netflix wants all the revenue and wishes to force the ISPs to eat all the costs. This will NOT work.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Corn1945
Posts: 4167
Incept: 2009-04-30
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Quote:
Providing what you're asking for (e.g. no overcommits) is a $200+/month proposition.

If you're willing to pay that, fine.


I don't disagree at all.

But the ISPs are not 100% innocent in this. Their advertising is simply misleading even though they may state the truth in the fine print.

They should clearly reword their contracts, reprice, and stop advertising "unlimited." They are just generating hostility.
Eighty6thebs
Posts: 4212
Incept: 2007-06-26
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Same war being waged in wireless data. You offer unlimited based on data forecasts. If actual is 50x of plan, you have to charge more or tier usage. AT&T has already moved from unlimited to tiers for this very reason and verizon is following. It makes total sense this would come to wired services to as demand explodes past plan.

Get ready for tiers and to pay a bunch more if you want to stream video all day. I'm sure all the cable companies will move to make it more expensive to watch content from Netflix than to subscribe to cable.

What I expect to hear next though is government is going to step in and regulate this and provide a pipe to anyone who wants to use it... For a price. Ever seen deregulated natural gas? We have it here in GA. Half my bill goes to the old gas company who owns the lines and half to my service provider who sells the gas into the system. Also like the old deregulation of the long distance lines that allowed anyone to sell service over them if they paid the access fees to the owners.

Either way this really hurts Netflix and the other leaches.

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"Sounds to me like you guys a couple of bookies" - Billy Ray Valentine

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Billonthehill
Posts: 2004
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Eighty6,

I got a great idea! Lets call it ENRON!

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"Interesting to be talking about Deeds of Trust. When there is no trust." - Anonymous Caller to KOH Reno Talk Radio 10.21.10“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…”Churchill 36

"
Augmentedfourth
Posts: 153
Incept: 2010-04-16

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Quote:
They can demand Comcast stop this, but that results in them raising rates or capping the consumer end.


And discouraging any future private investment in infrastructure.
Rdytmire
Posts: 1022
Incept: 2008-07-07
Green
Atlanta Ga
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Except ComCast is operating as a licensed monopoly. I can't choose to change cable providers where I live. So guess what, tough **** on these gouging ****ers. They MUST carry the traffic I request because they have exclusive access to me as a customer and have built out their pathetic capacity (see most of Asia) and horrible customer service on over-inflated fees.

Now they want to whine about network load?

I hope their routers melt so someone competent will take over.

FYI: I have now moved to AT&T DSL DIAF Comcast.




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Dtlgc
Posts: 939
Incept: 2007-11-26
Green
Texas
Online
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Karl, do you know if they use data compression, and is it the best available?
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