Now, About Governing.....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-11-03 08:33
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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Now, About Governing.....
 

Winning elections, especially in an environment where the people hate politicians that have allowed Wall Street to asset-strip them for more than two decades, is easy.

All you have to do is point to the guy who offered "change"  as his campaign slogan and then failed to deliver on that promise.

Who, instead of fixing the banking system and prosecuting the myriad frauds, protected the thieves.

Who, instead of dealing with the long-term deficit problems in Medicare and Medicaid, made them worse, and worse, watched insurance companies jack everyone's health rates by 20, 30, even 40% - and did nothing about it.

This election wasn't about "we love the Republican ideals."  The nation doesn't, to be frank.  "Guns, Gays and God" sells for a while, but when you're hungry both gays and straights can be driven to reach for their guns, swearing to God that those rats aren't going to get away with this!

I'm quite sure that wasn't the "Guns, Gays and God" viewpoint that either side was thinking of when they were running their campaign.

We're still hearing about how we have to "reach across the aisle" and deal with "the budget."

The first step to resolving a problem is admitting what it is.  In the case of Washington we have a government that is borrowing 43 cents of every dollar it spends.  That has to stop right now.

Further, we have a Federal Reserve that, in the last two years, has printed and debased the currency of this nation by more than 100%, taking their balance sheet from $800 billion to more than $2 trillion.  They now threaten, today, to do even more of that.  This has resulted in insane price ramps in soft commodities, and that will result in insane margin compression.  Did you watch 60 Minutes? 

 

Don't tell me the people don't get it.  They sure do.  And they delivered the message yesterday.

Now it's up to Washington to listen and act, or the people will deliver the message again.

Government cannot both protect the scammers on Wall Street from well-deserved bankruptcy and personal liability in the form of judgment and prosecution and fix the economy.  It can't happen - the losses have to be eaten by someone.

Sweeping them under the carpet simply hides the rot while it continues to do damage to the economy.  This destroys competitiveness and jobs.

At the same time we cannot both have a strong national economy and unbridled offshoring of production to places where there are no labor or environmental laws.

If The Republicans are going to govern they need to address these issues:

  1. The Budget.  We cannot tax our way out of this.  Therefore, we must fix the entitlement spending, since that's where the problem is.  We must also fix - 100% fix - our energy dependence whether the greenies like it or not.  In coming weeks I will put forward an actual and actionable set of budget discussion points.  They'll work.  They will take big brass balls to put on the table and get through Congress.  Obama can either deal with this or not - if not, in two more years he'll be gone too.

  2. The Economy.  We cannot continue to protect the banks.  There are ridiculous losses - well over a trillion dollars in aggregate - that are being hidden.  The banks lied about what went into these complex MBS securities.  That is now established beyond any doubt through sworn testimony.  Resolving the economy means resolving Fannie and Freddie along with the private issue MBS that contain these bogus loans.  Someone has to eat these losses and the reason we are now more than two years post-Lehman and have not seen a normalization in the interest rate and market environment is because these losses have been hidden instead of realized.  The reality of this situation is that until the BS games stop in the interest-rate markets capital formation cannot return nor can reasonable interest income on saved income.  Retirees simply cannot be forced out into "risky assets" to earn a reasonable income on their savings as a means of financing the bailout of big banks who did evil - and even criminal - things.  Destroying Senior Citizens and Pension Funds to cover up these losses is an intentional policy decision being taken by The Fed and it must stop.

  3. Monetary policy.  Tied in with #2, The Fed has to stop monetizing deficits and hiding bad bank debt.  The fact of the matter is that it is effectively trying to fill in the hole in these balance sheets through its back-door debasement of the currency.  All this does is shift the cost of the evil acts of these banks to Main Street by driving the price of everything you buy higher. Since we live in an economy where we have offshored nearly all of our production and factory jobs to China, India and Mexico, this results in ridiculous increases in the cost of living for the middle class and below.  In addition, as noted above, Seniors and other Retirees are having their retirement security intentionally and wantonly destroyed - both in their private accounts and in Pension funds.  Forcing retirees to risk a market crash in order to avoid literal exhaustion of their savings and starvation ought to be a criminal act.  Yet that is exactly what Bernanke's monetary policy is doing.  Further, this policy has shut down the engine of job creation - small business - by trashing capital formation - and it is destroying bank interest income as well.  We were told this was an emergency measure in 2007 and 2008.  We now know that was a lie, as the so-called "emergency" has been declared over, but the policies remain.   The truth is that these policies are intended to, and always were intended to, shift the cost of these outrageous acts to Main Street from Wall Street.

    We need a banking system.  We do not need the specific banks that intentionally and willfully caused the economic malaise.

  4. China. Love 'em or hate 'em we can't continue to have them run their economy with a peg to the dollar and non-existent labor and environmental laws.  Wage and environmental parity must be enforced one way or another.  The best way, in my opinion, is via tariffs on a broad basis.  Either the Chinese drop the peg and fix the problems on their side, or we will recover the trade imbalance that results from their policies via import duties until they do.  Those must be the only two choices offered, and the idea that we can allow this to take place over ten years or some other such nonsense must go out the window.  China lied when they promised to address these issues when they got most-favored-nation trading status.  That's a fact and we now need to hold them to account - here, now, today - for that lie.

Time to step up folks.

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Asimov
Posts: 103915
Incept: 2007-08-26
Gold
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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Pisses me off, I twisted the **** out of my ankle last night and wasn't able to go vote.

Glad it didn't really matter in my case (tennessee) but it still*****es me off. :(

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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
Stillfishin
Posts: 159
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First year I have not voted... WTF for??

Karl, you mention Barry will be gone in 2 years. Do you really think this system can survive that long? I highly doubt it can.
Winstonsmith2009
Posts: 1060
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Considering the results of last night's election, we're really gonna' see some changes now!

An illustration:

http://www.dvorak.org/blog/wp-content/up....
Jonathanr
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Newton, Iowa's economic "mass balance" was ****ed once the Maytag factory closed down. How can a town like that exist when it consumes more than it produces? Add to that the great sucking of mortgage interest payments to Wall St.

Now scale that up to state and federal level.

It's simple really. The solution is to relocalize the economy, which needs to start at town/city level.

Discourage businesses which import new consumer durables into the locality. Encourage businesses which service and repair that which is existing. It's decidedly unglamorous, but that'll be what it takes.

That's the message that the Mayor should be presenting. Washington will never be able to fix locals' problems, since it is simply parasitic.

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Why do you complain? It's the criminals who decide how proceeds of crime are spent, not the victims.
Abn0rmal
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Jonathanr wrote..
Newton, Iowa's economic "mass balance" was ****ed once the Maytag factory closed down.
That factory is still there it's just been converted to heavy manufacturing instead of consumer durables.
R2judge
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"The first step to resolving a problem is admitting what it is. In the case of Washington we have a government that is borrowing 43 cents of every dollar it spends. That has to stop right now."

But it isn't. 1.3 trillion - 100 billion = 1.2 trillion.

When Bush was President, democrats complained about huge deficits, then ran huger deficits when they got power. The republicans complained about the democrats huger deficits and now that they have (some) power, they are going to keep running huger deficits (don't matter) than when Bush was President.

Themortgagedude
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Don't think I've heard any brass balls clanking from 1600 Pennsylvania. Ed Rendell of all people came the closest on Morning Joe when talking of needed cuts in entitlement programs.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Jotapay
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All those things would be a great start.
Detersbb
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It is easy to say fix the spending by getting entitlement spending under control, but how is this done. Any mention of messing with people Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, Drug Prescription, Pensions, and Government Medical Care benefits is met with extreme scorn. How do you fix the spending in these venues without implementing austerity measures and keep people from taking up arms at reduced benefits that they have paid for? How do you justify keeping the program collecting revenue at current levels and cut the payouts? How do you cut the benefits entirely and address those who have paid into the program? How do you address those whose survival is dependent on social security and medicare payouts at the current rate? Would it be more reasonable to say that the US should go into receivership, as any other business that could not meet its financial obligations? Is it not reasonable to see the US as painted into a corner of its own making and has no way to escape and must at long last after bubble after bubble time after time face the reality that it does not have the money to meet its promises and it cannot break those promises without creating societal upheaval, therefore the rule of law demands bankruptcy and receivership as the only proper recourse?
Genesis
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Bankruptcy leads to the same cuts.

As for "you're entitled", well, you might be. But the politicians stole the tax money, so it's gone. That's the beginning and end of it.

This is what I was pointed out on MSNBC - you did pay in, and you were promised a trust arrangement - an annuity if you will. But the money was stolen. Therefore, it's not "socialism" - at least not what you were sold.

Nonetheless the money was stolen. That which is gone, is in fact gone. And while we can more-or-less fix Social Security, we cannot fix Medicare as it stands now.

We are going to have to have the discussion with the American people about end-of-life costs. We can't, as a society, pay. Therefore, we can either pay for routine medical care for seniors up until you get into those situations where you need the $100k+ stuff, or we can have the entire thing collapse.

Americans have to deal with their mortality. It doesn't matter whether they want to.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
R2judge
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"Retirees simply cannot be forced out into "risky assets" to earn a reasonable income on their savings as a means of financing the bailout of big banks who did evil..."

But they are and the republicans have not said word one about it- It is all about how socialist Obama is ruining the country, which makes a great cover for Wall Street to continue asset stripping the tea party members.
Daveincsa
Posts: 211
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In the South
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Karl is right! Now's not the time for people to stop paying attention. Keep the pressure on these new candidates to do what we've elected them to do.

I for one don't want to see Boehner as Speaker. Let's get some new blood in there!
Punch_rockgroin
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Detersbb:

In the case of Social Security, you're not necessarily entitled to a payout, regardless of having paid into the system. See Flemming v. Nestor:

http://www.ssa.gov/history/nestor.html

Quote:
In this 1960 Supreme Court decision Nestor's denial of benefits was upheld even though he had contributed to the program for 19 years and was already receiving benefits. Under a 1954 law, Social Security benefits were denied to persons deported for, among other things, having been a member of the Communist party. Accordingly, Mr. Nestor's benefits were terminated. He appealed the termination arguing, among other claims, that promised Social Security benefits were a contract and that Congress could not renege on that contract. In its ruling, the Court rejected this argument and established the principle that entitlement to Social Security benefits is not contractual right.


Is it beyond the realm of possibility that congress might, in the very near future, disqualify certain persons (maybe those on a no-fly list?) from receiving SS benefits? It's been done before.

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Put the boots to him. Medium style.
Themortgagedude
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Here's my thoughts. Let the tax cuts expire. But on the same day they expire you make cuts in government spending of an amount equal to the new taxes. Do this from discretionary spending.

Then lock Obama, Boehner, Reid in a room with their staff and don't come out until you have solved the social security and medicare problems. In doing so Obama probably should make an announcement that these tough decisions will most likely make him a one termer anyway and as such he is not going to run for reelection. And courage is something that you only see every couple of generations and its time for him to show some courage and lead this nation. We need to see this challenge ahead as a war, with all hands on deck. This will require sacrifices in the form of higher taxes and lower entitlement payments. It will require that we forego the $30 DVD player and pay a working wage to an American worker to build this product. If he does what I mention I'm willing to commission the sculptor to start carving the first black president's face on Mt Rushmore. If he chooses to kick the can down the road he'll go on the scrap heap of failed presidents, landing facedown on top of 43, Jimmy Carter, Lyndon Johnson and Herbert Hoover. There are many others but they are much deeper in the pile.

Barack the choice is yours, it's time to decide your legacy. Even if reelected this economy will not be revived with can kicking, and you're still on that pile. So it's time to man up and grow some balls that clank.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Detersbb
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I do not see MBS as the biggest problem with the economy. I see the biggest problem with the economy as debt saturation, everyone's credit card(s) is/are maxed out and no more borrowing is forthcoming which will inevitably end in default on so much debt. I was taught that the great depression came as a result of huge monetary expansion and the almost overnight turning off of the credit spicket coupled with the crash as a result of loan repayment acceleration. My solution is for for the states to each create a state bank that would borrow whatever to the people they owe on mortgages, credit cards, personal loans, allow them to default, forgive that default and wipe the record clean, and then move forward as a society with state owned banks that borrow according to proper lending methods and use the interest from these loans to fund all and only the necessities of the state (roads, police, firefighters, allow social welfare to be handled by the church, as helping someone out with a 3rd person's money is a moral matter and what better place to deal with moral matter than the church). This would accomplish a couple of major things. It would eliminate all taxes, of course spending would need to be dropped, but that is do able with the elimination of all social programs including schooling which would go to all private for tuition admission. (This is an in state solution, the Fed must default) The final thing that this would do is allow debt saturation to be unwound. The other banks would have their money, and with regulation they could be put under state bank ownership or forbid them from doing business in the state by way of non-enforcement of all non-state loans or extensions of credit. I see this as a great way to address the federal reserve problem of monetary policy too, if the states generated a state currency with a universal exchange rate that would function like the state quarters, putting the federal reserves monopoly of legal tender at an end, and with a little education putting them under for good. That is how I would handle it at the state level.
Hogman
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Derby City, USA
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wrote..
nobody has any money


been saying that one for well over a year now

let's see if these ass holes listen, sure hope so

Here in town doubt it (Yarmuth) these ****ing idiots handily re-elected Pelosi's bitch I cqan take yu to the two parts of town that are responsible for dumb asses re-election

You'll be shocked both uber liberal granola eating true hugging perma students - can't we all just get along smiley
Dysmas
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The GOP is already reading the election results wrong. This election was about a rejection of Obama. Not just his handling of the economy, but about issues such as Gitmo and radical islam, immigration, black panthers etc. Obama scares the **** out of the white middle class.

Now we have grid lock. The Republicans will not be able to pass anything or repeal anything. Obama will use the lame duck session to ram through a few more things on his agenda. He then will use executive orders and his veto pen to maintain his policies.

The GOP will try to run their old play book, Cut spending and lower taxes. But the spending they will cut will not help the economy. Cutting a little discretionary spending and not extending unemployment will not help anything and will play right into Obama's hands. The GOP has no real plan on how to revive small business. They will not make cuts where they are needed such as cutting public employee benefits/pensions and reducing significantly the number of federal workers. Cutting taxes for people who do not have jobs or for businesses who are just barely staying afloat will not mean crap.

The first thing the new congress will face is the debt ceiling. Whatcha think they are going to do??

Its going to get worse......for the middle class, the unemployed and small business.

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Inside at last
Themortgagedude
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Dysmas - not sure they are all reading the results incorrectly. This was indeed the second vote for the Contract for America. WE WANT SOME BIG KIDS IN THE ROOM THAT WILL SOLVE THE PROBLEMS.

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I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Hogman
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Dysmas wrote..
This election was about a rejection of Obama. Not just his handling of the economy, but about issues such as Gitmo and radical islam, immigration, black panthers etc.


Tht'll get you a bet

1000 clams says you are wrong

PM me and I'll give you my pay pal account
Dysmas
Posts: 201
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N.C.
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Hope you are right..... But there are not enough grown ups to make a difference.

The country is still split. Even though the GOP made some major gains, the margin of victory was not that great in many races. Sure they won, but maybe by only a few thousand votes. I know thats all that matters in an election, but it still means a lot of the population still sides with the current regime.

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Inside at last
Dysmas
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Hogman

What do you think the election as about?

Do you think people just wanted to put the GOP back into power?? Just like Karl said, the GOP caused a lot of problems we now face and I think the vote was just about hamstringing Obama.

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Inside at last
Sondergaard
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Tariffs seem very unlikely. Campaigns are now heavily financed by foreign entities and big business that depends on offshoring and cheap imports. Campaign finance disclosure is DOA and we can expect a flood of secret foreign and pro-foreign money buying our politicians for the foreseeable future. They are unlikely to bite the hands that feed them.

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And it won't make one bit of difference if I answer right or wrong; when you're rich, they think you really know. --Fiddler on the Roof
Pezhead
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NC
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The F.E.D. must be stopped - this is insane - this is a scam and nobody gives a #$%@.

The Creature From Jekyll Island (by G. Edward Griffin)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lu_VqX6J9....

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We're rich! We broke even! We're in the poor house :-(
-- Simpsons 'Enron'
Pezhead
Posts: 42
Incept: 2009-09-22
Green
NC
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Gov't Transgressions:
- Iraq / Afghanistan
- $700B TARP bank bailout
- $800B Econ non-recovery
- $1Trillion Federal Reserve Mortgage buyout 'save the banks'-again-program
- GM/Chrysler bailout & contract law railroad job
- Health-scare
- HR3808 robo mortgage signing - fraud - sneak attack
- QE2 'just another bank bailout' by the F.E.D.

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We're rich! We broke even! We're in the poor house :-(
-- Simpsons 'Enron'
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