Uh, Wee Problem Here On Grains.....
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-10-08 10:57
by Karl Denninger
in Market Musings
Ignore this thread
Uh, Wee Problem Here On Grains.....
 

God I hope you're not stuck short on these....

Oats....

Soybeans

Corn

Wheat

That's bad news - those are all lock-limit up.

For those who have never traded commodities, there is a maximum daily price move.  When that limit is hit trading stops.

What this means is that it is entirely possible for exactly one trade to go off at the limit price and lock trading.  You're stuck with whatever position you have at that point.

If you're short and you lock-limit up the good news is that the damage stops (for that day) there.

The bad news is that there's nothing you can do about the damage, up to and including being driven into a margin call, which can bankrupt you.

This is just pure ugly...... anyone who thinks this is "good news" in some way needs their head examined.  This isn't a single crop, it's across-the-board.

"Here it comes" in the grains..... and your food prices......

(Report on the wire relating to corn production expecting a poorer harvest... but man, the reflection everywhere else?  I don't think this is that simple.)

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Uh, Wee Problem Here On Grains..... in forum [Market-Ticker]
Murf
Posts: 4486
Incept: 2007-08-28
Green
MurfCon Warning Level: Arrogance II
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What would cause that?!?

Must be meteor showers in the forecast smiley

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The money has already been lost. Someone has to book it.
Loves2learn
Posts: 1210
Incept: 2009-01-28
Silver
The free (for now) state of Kansas
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Wow, I am so glad we are stocked up on food. Problem is, I don't know anyone else who has listened to us and done the same.

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A poor person's farm may produce much food,
but injustice sweeps it away. Proverbs 13:23
The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
Henry Kissinger, New York Times, Oct. 28, 1973
Randy123
Posts: 5767
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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Who needs wheat these days? Thanks Ben.

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Pj
Posts: 1210
Incept: 2009-12-07

Putnam County, New York
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Just paid north of $2.60 for Heating Oil. Now the Grocery bill gets to beat me up too.

All this QE and talk of QE2 does is lessen the amount of money Americans can spend which will depress the economy even more. But the boyz at the Lower Manhattan Casino get to keep playing and collecting bonuses as the stock market and commodities continue to go up, up, and away--completely detaching from the Main Street economy.

Thanks Ben, you ****ing **********!


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When the Athenians finally wanted not to give to society but for society to give to them, when the freedom they wished for most was freedom from responsibility, then Athens ceased to be free and was never free again.” Edward Gibbon
Etz
Posts: 13888
Incept: 2007-06-26
Silver
LA
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Bernanke and his band of merry thieves wish you a Happy Grinchmas.

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Legal chicanery and beneficent darkness are the banker's stoutest allies - F.Pecora.

2banana
Posts: 337
Incept: 2008-02-25

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What happened to deflation?

Or are the Chinese just buying anything not nailed down with the surplus dollars they have?
Asdqwe
Posts: 132
Incept: 2010-06-18


Banned
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So certain speculators (big ones) are betting that we will have serious dollar debasement? Seems like a decent bet I suppose. Wonder how much of this was short covering? Or is there a fundamental story for food stocks?
Genesis
Posts: 130677
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Bad corn production report.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Randy123
Posts: 5767
Incept: 2008-09-24
Green
Earth
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Bad Kashi

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Tommyw
Posts: 2618
Incept: 2009-04-20
Green
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Dumb newbie question- how big are commodities futures markets relative to FX, bonds and equities?

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“In every country and in every age the priest has been hostile to liberty; he is always in allegiance to the despot, abetting his abuses in return for protection of his own.” - Thomas Jefferson
Genesis
Posts: 130677
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Thin.

But - if you're on the wrong end of one of these you're going home in a bag this afternoon.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bigsapper
Posts: 2471
Incept: 2010-06-25
Silver
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Wow! Guess I'm gonna find out if you really *can* eat gold.


Gold bullion au poivre. Mmmm.
Mnpatriot
Posts: 169
Incept: 2010-01-16

Minnesota
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PM's ramped as well.

I've had this feeling (and been wrong) quite a few times this last year+, but this makes me wonder if this isn't the "and so it begins" moment.


Smoke is pouring out the top floor windows, and Bernanke is standing next door with his garden hose aimed at saving the customer that paid their subscription, the bank.

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"In the beginning of a change, the patriot is a scarce man, brave, hated, and scorned. When his cause succeeds however, the timid join him, For then it costs nothing to be a patriot." -- Mark Twain
Kwl88
Posts: 518
Incept: 2009-04-16

KC, MO
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So any ideas if this will make the KC Board of Trade a BIT more newsworthy(ie they do a LOT of trading of grains here in KC)?

Its an extremely miniature-sized version of the Trading Floor that was shown in the Eddie Murphy-Dan Aykroyd-Jamie Lee Curtis "TRADING PLACES" movie. There are only 2 pits where they do trading BUT you can still watch the trading from an observation deck made available to the public. They do a lot of wheat & corn trading.
Asdqwe
Posts: 132
Incept: 2010-06-18


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Holy wow this seems like a "and so it begins" moment here too. Look at the various base metals, oil, gold, silver, cotton, sugar, copper, etc. Everything is on fire! How far does the world takes this money printing?

This seems beyond ignorance. This is planned destruction.
Vicious_cycle
Posts: 253
Incept: 2009-03-10
Gold
Chardon, OH
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That's it.

I'm loading up on beer tonight.
Splashdown
Posts: 556
Incept: 2010-04-05
Green
Central Illinois
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Wow..wheat up 10% in one day, huh?

Found this interesting....

"While farmers will collect the most soybeans ever, the total will be 2.2 percent less than forecast in September"
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-10....

Never the less, soybeans up 6.57%

Village-idjit
Posts: 490
Incept: 2010-06-09
Gold
B'ham WA
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I was just in Central Montana (Lewistown) on a road trip, the grain harvest there is so huge, all the elevators are full, they are piling the grain up in huge outdoor mounds along the RR sidings, and covering it with big white plastic tarps! Tons of harvest, their best in decades! The price spike must reflect QE.
Splashdown
Posts: 556
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Green
Central Illinois
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Quote:
That's it.

I'm loading up on beer tonight.


LOL...I was thinking the same thing - the cost of our barley soda's are going to go up.

No worries for CPI though...I'm sure they just substitute a 12-pack of Milwaukee's Best for a 12-pck of Heineken in the spreadsheet they use.
Bagbalm
Posts: 4248
Incept: 2009-03-19
Green
Just North of Detroit
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Not surprising - The USDA has been lying about crops and grain in storage just as bad as the government lies about unemployment and cost of living. They have been limiting how many farmers could claim disaster relief county by county. They may have more than they can store in one area but across the whole country weather did not cooperate. Now here in MI things are sweet. Corn crop is pretty good despite a lack of late rain.
I've heard of elevators expecting normal inflow from reports and then not getting enough to meet contracts.

Sometime you want to see what farmers are saying look at: http://newagtalk.com/

Reason: add URL
Pietertvl
Posts: 3587
Incept: 2007-12-05

NFA
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I'll stick my neck out here and say this will be short lived.

Yes, the corn report was a catalyst, but there had just been a good sized dump LAST WEEK and too many called it a top. And today were forced to cover, exaggerating the reaction. My work had it as a wave 4 pull back, so I stayed out. To me this move has the look of a wave 5, and ties in with other work in the metals, FX, etc, all suggesting that bucky's drop will end soon.

Guess we'll find out then if this is all QE2 speculation, or too many rats aboard the ship. Or both.

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"All the perplexities, confusion and distresses in America arise not from defects in the constitution or confederation, nor from want of honor or virtue, as much from downright ignorance of the nature of coin, credit, and circulation." ~ John Adams

Josecitomadera
Posts: 554
Incept: 2009-03-20

Miami
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Karl-This is just pure ugly...... anyone who thinks this is "good news" in some way needs their head examined.

Jose-I feel its good news for me. I've been long corn futures for a while. I'd just roll them over from contract month to contract month.

YAHOO, keep those lock limit days going UP, UP and AWAY!!!! Corn is a trade where poor people like me can trade.

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What do I know, I'm only an ILLEGAL IMMIGRANT.
Hogman
Posts: 7874
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Derby City, USA
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i've been arguing food prices for over a year now, whether at home or the local haunt/ restaurant

got milk?
Bogey
Posts: 1302
Incept: 2008-03-12
Green
Montana
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Nothing but nothing is driven by supply-demand fundamentals any more. More likely this is just the heartland/Food Inc.'s turn at the trough. Like the oil giants in '07, they've got the green light to take everybody for a ride via their hedge fund arms. So what if they can't quite keep up (though God knows they're trying!) at the supermarket? Why worry about retail margins when you can fleece 'em in the futures pits?


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I don't mind Obama so much. It's the people in power that I can't stand.
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