Why The Fed's Policies WILL Collapse The Economy
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-09-22 10:46
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
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Why The Fed's Policies WILL Collapse The Economy
 

Not might folks, will.

“And you need not go further than one of our stores on midnight at the end of the month. And it’s real interesting to watch, about 11 p.m., customers start to come in and shop, fill their grocery basket with basic items, baby formula, milk, bread, eggs,and continue to shop and mill about the store until midnight, when electronic — government electronic benefits cards get activated and then the checkout starts and occurs. And our sales for those first few hours on the first of the month are substantially and significantly higher.

“And if you really think about it, the only reason somebody gets out in the middle of the night and buys baby formula is that they need it, and they’ve been waiting for it. Otherwise, we are open 24 hours — come at 5 a.m., come at 7 a.m., come at 10 a.m. But if you are there at midnight, you are there for a reason.”

This is why it can't work folks.

In a credit-driven monetary system, you can only get "inflation" (in the truest sense, where it flows through to wages and prices, thereby debasing - that is, helping - people pay down indebtedness) if there is credit expansion.

But when the limit of credit expansion is reached (which is known - when "QE" by whatever name is initiated, you've reached that point, as you are then artificially trying to create credit expansion that you are unable to stimulate otherwise) further machinations of this sort do nothing other than bankrupt the population.

That is, there is no flow-through to wages.  Price for essentials go up (energy, food, diapers, etc) but earnings capacity in real after-tax dollars decreases instead of increasing as occurs in a true inflationary environment.

You've all seen this.  The 2qt Ice Cream tub is now 1.5qts.  Price inflation.  But your paycheck hasn't gone up 25% to compensate.

The upper middle class and above is "unhurt" by this.  Oh sure, they feel the pinch too, but in the broader sense it doesn't do much damage to them, in that they still have surplus.  So long as you have surplus, you're "ok" in the general sense (you might not like it, but you at least can put gas in the car and food in your kid's mouth!)

The working person, and especially the lower-middle class and below, are decimated by these sorts of policies.

Because capital formation is destroyed by ZIRP, these people have no job opportunities.  Without capital formation there are no new businesses formed to create jobs.  Without that employment there is no income to spend.  The price-cram inflation that manufacturers try to hide with quantity games and similar doesn't matter, as your baby still poops the same number of diapers, so if you get six less in a package, you need to buy more packages.  The price-per is what matters, not the price on the wrapper, and your income goes down.

We can't stabilize the labor market until we shut off the ZIRP tap.  We cannot export our wage deflation to China, because it winds up reflecting here and destroys the capability for Americans to earn a decent wage.  At the same time despite claims of "zero inflation" food, energy and other essentials continue to skyrocket in price.

If you doubt this problem is real go to a WalMart in any major city on the last day of the month around 11:00 in the evening. Hang around for an hour.  Notice who's in there and who goes for the checkstand when the clock ticks over.

These folks know better than anyone, due to their superior IT technology and ability to track sales down to the UPC, along with time of the sale and who's buying, exactly what's going on.  When they tell you people are so broke they can't afford a package of diapers until the "magic card" with "government cheese" turns back on at 12:01, you better listen.  They're not BSing you.

I've written on this for three years, and have pointed out that debasing the dollar will not help - it will in fact destroy the middle class and below instead.  We got a short reprieve from the dollar debasement occasioned by the equity collapse in 2008 and early 09, but now we're in the phase where instead of engendering support for the stock market a dollar decline will crash valuations instead.

Competitive devaluation cannot work, as we do not control the world.  When we do it the rest of the world will respond by doing the same thing.  All we do is tighten the vise - actual help for the population is not in the offing from these policies.  "Begger Thy Neighbor" - exactly what we are attempting to do now - was a big part of why The Depression lasted 10 years, and it is also a big part of why it ended in a World War.

Nothing has changed folks.  I said in 2007 that the only way out of this was to pull liquidity and force the bankrupt to take their medicine, whether we wanted to do it or not.  It doesn't matter if the rich and powerful banksters "think" this is a bad idea, mathematically it is not possible to inflate out of this, nor to stabilize the economy with ZIRP and QE.  All we've done is enable the federal government to temporarily paper over the insolvency of half the population (and all of the major banks) by borrowing and spending 12% of GDP, building in even more damage that now has to be corrected and ensuring that even more pain must be suffered.

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User Info Why The Fed's Policies WILL Collapse The Economy in forum [Market-Ticker]
2banana
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Quote:
Competitive devaluation cannot work, as we do not control the world. When we do it the rest of the world will respond by doing the same thing. All we do is tighten the vise - actual help for the population is not in the offing from these policies.


The Euro and the Dollar seem to be in a race to the bottom. Which will tip first?
Docj
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Well said as always, KD. So clear even a dope like me can understand it.

And yet, the more I try to explain this to people the deeper the glaze over their eyes.

Sigh.

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Zenthunder
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Right - as the dollar weakens due to policy, and costs go up, people WILL sell assets, like stocks, bonds, cars, and houses, to buy necessary consumables (which will also be going up in price as asset values decrease).


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HOPE is not a business plan!
Bob.builder10
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If it hasn't been recommended before, I recommend that everyone reads Adam Fergusson's When Money Dies. I've nearly finished it and you can certainly see the parallels with the Fed's actions.
Takeaways are
1.Once you turn on the printing press it is very difficult to turn it off.
2. Correct wages don’t keep up with inflation at all as KD points out.
3. The only way to protect your purchasing power is to hold your savings/cash in a hard currency.

Enjoy!
Genesis
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#3 doesn't work as the usual next act of government is to impose a capital gains tax that more than wipes out the parity you're trying to hold onto.

Your only defense is to actually hold THINGS. If it gets REAL bad you need enough THINGS to survive without the goons.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Nomullet
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These government cards aren't accepted at farmer's market or thrift stores- gotta keep things corporate.

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Blackswan
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In the words of old dickbag Munger.. Suck it up and cope.


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“It’s checkmate. Everywhere it’s checkmate.”
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2dogs
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Quote:
as the dollar weakens due to policy, and costs go up, people WILL sell assets, like stocks, bonds, cars...
That's already happening now. We saw it just this past weekend at the Mecum Muscle Car Auction in St. Charles. Many of the cars didn't even come close to meeting reserve. And the cars on which the reserve was dropped during the bidding process went for very cheap. Some of these guys have hundreds of thousands of dollars invested in restorations, etc., and the cars are only selling for the tens of thousands.

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You can't defeat the combined effects of massive voter fraud, the Free **** Army, and the entire bought and paid for media complex. This nation is done.
Asdqwe
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So it seems their plan is working then.(To collapse the economy)
Throxxofvron
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Quote:
The upper middle class and above is "unhurt" by this. Oh sure, they feel the pinch too, but in the broader sense it doesn't do much damage to them, in that they still have surplus.


The American Citizenry are being FED into the woodchipper feet first.

The lower class will be sacrificed first and then the the lower middle class and then the middle middle class and so on...

The People holding 93% of the financial wealth in the US are the top 20% or so, and 42.7% in the top 1%; -the true upper class.

If half the Debt in the System must be defaulted and 93% is in the hands of the top 20% then most of these People would be compelled to lose something approaching half.

The Top 1% would probably lose more than half.

The higher up the food chain the more 'financialized' the holdings are.

If the debt distribution is understood the problem becomes apparent.

The People running the Country do not want to lose half or more of their wealth.

The 80% of the Country that holds ( held? ) only 7% of the wealth is probably pretty much ****ed to some lesser or greater degree already.

These of course are the Bastards Who have sold out the rest of the Country with outsourcing, debt games, etc...

The financial Leadership/Owner Class is going to fight taking their medicine along with Everyone Else every step of the way as they realize how much They have to lose...

http://sociology.ucsc.edu/whorulesameric....
Inline

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell

Spartacus
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What do you mean by "Collapse" ... I assume you mean something more than a technical short double dip into recession territory ... to be immediately followed by a massive forest of "green shoots'.

and ...

When???

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Genesis
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Yes, I mean much more than a "technical" short double-dip.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Alex
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The Government will have to employ everyone and print like mad, if they desire wage inflation. I don't think state ownership of industry will go down well in the US.

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"The soft patch does not occur in year 2. This is a completely abnormal economic condition — all the more so in the context of the massive and ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus."

—Rosenberg
Throxxofvron
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http://www.thefreedictionary.com/collaps....

Quote:
collapse [kəˈlæps]
vb
1. (intr) to fall down or cave in suddenly the whole building collapsed
2. (intr) to fail completely his story collapsed on investigation
3. (intr) to break down or fall down from lack of strength
4. to fold (furniture, etc.) compactly or (of furniture, etc.) to be designed to fold compactly
n
1. the act or instance of suddenly falling down, caving in, or crumbling
2. a sudden failure or breakdown
[from Latin collāpsus, from collābī to fall in ruins, from lābī to fall]

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Thesev
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It would probably be nice to get some pictures of the activity described at the Wal-Marts.

They would be the soup-line shots of this particular depression.

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The reason the republic isn't working is that it's being run as a democracy.

It doesn't matter who you are, or who you Think you are, the Math is Going to Win.
Docj
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Another anecdote - I used to have pretty good success selling some of my old grad school engineering texts on Half.com and eBay. Classical mechanics and math haven't changed much over the last decade so all of these are very much current. Now granted I'm down to some of the more esoteric volumes in my collection but I've sold many "out-there" books at premium as recently as late-2008.

I can't move any of them at any price.

Didn't think twice about that but it all makes sense now. These aren't course texts - they're more-or-less common references - and therefore not strictly required for purchase.

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The preservation of liberty depends upon the intellectual and moral character of the people. As long as knowledge and virtue are diffused generally among the body of a nation it is impossible they should be enslaved. - John Adams
Tesla
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I have a feeling this will be one very long and miserable winter...

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Randy123
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Not for us Tesla, NE should be warmer because of La Nina!!

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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.

New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
Crossthread
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Ancedotal.....
Stores/Drug stores, ie: Rite-Aide, Family Dollar AND Dollar General, and Roses, (owned by Variety Wholesalers), have now begun accepting *EBT* cards, in other words, FS Cards.....While advertising they have "up'ed" the #'s of available "food Items", in Each store.
Ex sample, Rite-Aide which had "very few" food Items now has 2 Isles of canned/dried food...
Roses, the same.... Canned and dried goods, meanwhile,they are in the Process of putting in a couple of freezers for frozen Items...
Each state is different, with FS issuance being , (Here in NC) The First through the 9th of the month... During these days, Shelves are laid bare and are constantly re-stocked.. Till after the 9th...

In Addition, I can go to the "local" ATM, the day before the first, it has *money* in it..
After 12:01 on the First, till after the 3rd of the Month, the servicer's are restocking the thing at LEAST, twice a day!......

Now the "Local food bank" that's another story for another thread, but it's getting crazy.....

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Mcleertcm
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That is true about shopping at Walmart. I thought going after 12:01am would
be the best time to pick up a few things and get out. But boy was I wrong.
the parking lot was 1/2 full and the lines were packed. All buggies were stuffed
mainly with food,groceries,paper products. Now the Electronic aisle was quit empty
so I browsed over there. You can't buy a tube TV any more. They do have one tube
TV by Sony you can get on line order only!!
Onchaos
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Virginia
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The "truly moneyed" don't care if it's ten years, or twenty, the rest of us can go hug a tree for all they care. It's only if we take away their government sanctioned monopoly that would get them excited.

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Otiswild
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Sad part is, all the food-stamp-eligible crap is at ripoff prices both at walmart and the local unionized stupormarkups thanks to all that funny money!!

Dunno if Costco accepts food stamps yet (saw an article about it late last year) but I sure hope they don't..
Ben
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Genesis wrote..
Yes, I mean much more than a "technical" short double-dip.

What is the most recent TF consensus on how much we are going down?

The 12% the .Gov is papering over? 20%? 40%?
.

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Hogman
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Somewhere (yesterday) I heard Dollar General Stores are being built "more than normal"
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