| User Info
| US Home Prices Declined (What?!) in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Seriousslacker
Posts: 1482
Incept: 2008-09-30
Spinning Clockwise or Counter Clockwise?
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Makes one wonder what the real July number will be! Don't worry - housing has already bottomed!  |
Randy123
Posts: 5773
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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Once again a negative revision. So tiring.
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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Throxxofvron
Posts: 10322
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
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The word 'unexpectedly' is missing.
Someone unexpectedly must have forgotten.
The word unexpectedly always makes things seem like a surprise; -and Who doesn't love surprises.
Even horrifying surprises are unexpectedly easier to handle if the word unexpectedly is used to describe them.
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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
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Thomasblair
Posts: 35
Incept: 2009-04-03
AL
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It seems we see neg revisions in a number of important indicators every month. What's the harm in waiting an additional reporting period and just giving the accurate number the first time a data point is released (i.e. keep preliminary releases as internal documents, to be revised and officially released when the numbers are certain)? This trend is seen with housing sales (as above) but also with employment numbers. Given that they're released weekly and contain revisions for the prior week's release, why not just wait one more week and give an accurate number once instead of a guess and then a number?
I assume the answer is that it allows the monkeys to pump the preliminary numbers and then ignore revisions. The other benefit (to some) is that the revisions soften current negative news. Is that all there really is to it, or are there real benefits also?
Reason: clean up wording
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Wonderdawg
Posts: 158
Incept: 2010-01-23
Southeast USA
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Thomas: "I assume the answer is that it allows the monkeys to pump the preliminary numbers and then ignore revisions."
I think you nailed it right there. TPTB are counting on the miniscule attention span of the public and it seems to work.
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Cjworkman
Posts: 7948
Incept: 2007-08-22
Banned
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it's stablized on the low end... even risen quite a bit on the low end since march 2009.
However.. the high end is getting hammered more recently. So that is going to bring the average down.
and the mid-high end is definitely not done price falling.
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Mcleertcm
Posts: 13
Incept: 2010-09-10
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Bernanke has been instructed to hold this market up until all the
representatives get voted out and then give them a conference call at home
the day before he pulls the plug!!! Dow 555 coming our way soon.
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Eleua
Posts: 14022
Incept: 2007-07-05
N 47.72/ W 122.55
Online
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Does anyone else think the housing reset chart that was the basis for all this mess portends disaster concentrated on the higher end in the not too distant future? IMAO, this chart is bi-modal and the first mode (behind us) is MLK Blvd, whereas the next mode (just starting) is the 'burbs.
There isn't any provision for banks having hedged this one. These mortgages would never default. They are bigger, more numerous, and have virtually no loan loss reserves set against them.
Should be interesting.
Thoughts?
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http://clearcutbainbridge.blogspot.com/"My object in life is to dethrone God and destroy capitalism." - Karl Marx "Destroy the family, you destroy the country." - Lenin "Education is a weapon whose effects depend on who holds it in his hands and at whom it is aimed." - Stalin
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Cjworkman
Posts: 7948
Incept: 2007-08-22
Banned
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"the first mode (behind us) is MLK Blvd, whereas the next mode (just starting) is the 'burbs."
Long commute burbs already got hit too..
for example.. a single family home in Centreville, VA which is ~20 miles outside DC averaged about 540K or so 6-12 months ago. While you could get a much larger newer house in Gainesville (where a lot of building happened during the boom) for about 350K. And it's only another 9 miles or so outside DC. So 9 miles of commute bought you a bigger nicer house for 200K cheaper, 40% cheaper.
Gainesville bottomed and ramped quite a bit.. but stopped ramping and just flatlined around April.
Centreville however has been falling and expanding inventory the last few months.
The inventory and declines are moving up the price ladder and closer into the city, and there's still a long way to go.
each city is going to be a bit different though.
In theory.. DC area should hold up better than other places because of the abudance of high paying defense contractor, other government contractor and government jobs.
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Ls2gto
Posts: 482
Incept: 2007-08-30
East Coast
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Anecdotal: My house went up in value! At least that is what my latest property tax bill said. My nextdoor neighbor has dropped his asking price twice, he is now at 2/3 of the 2007 assesment, he needs to drop it to a maximum of 50% of that value to move it. Let the prices fall and put a real bottom in, stop the damn bailouts.
A house is not an investment, and I want my gubmint mortgage bailout in the form of a Corvette since I was stupid enough to pay it off instead of running it as an ATM!
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Ostriches
Posts: 261
Incept: 2009-10-28
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"In theory.. DC area should hold up better than other places because of the abudance of high paying defense contractor, other government contractor and government jobs."
They may even go up higher and higher as more and more people move to the area to suckle off the last drops of the fast depleting government sweater calves. After the prices go too high and/or after the milk is all gone, it is going to spectacularly crash!
And, it will be glorious to see the sunken and beaten down faces of all the government parasites!
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Medicdan
Posts: 8015
Incept: 2010-02-11
Scottsdale, AZ
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So I should cancel my economic recovery BYOB party?  I am sick and tired of revised reports always way worse than the original. No wonder the retail investor no longer believes anything.
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Ktrosper
Posts: 1500
Incept: 2010-04-06
ft collins co
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I'm honestly wondering wtf they even bother to revise their made up numbers...
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The unexamined life is not worth living.-Socrates
The only stable state is the one in which all men are equal before the law.-Aristotle
Liberty exists now in the spaces government has not yet chosen to occupy.-Doc Zero
I anticipate that 10 Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders will blow me this evening.-K.D
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Tesla
Posts: 15541
Incept: 2008-04-03
State of Disbelief
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An elderly neighbor died recently and his family is getting ready to put the house (small farm) on the market. The son is a SVP with a regional bank, so you'd think he'd know the RE score. They bought the farm (literally) in 2002 for $675k. The price they intend to list ? $ 875k. Yes, really, because they put in about $100k of improvements and they think they deserve a profit.  I'll be REALLY interested to watch this one. I'm hoping to pick up some additional land...when the price reflects reality in the next year or two. I'm thinking it should also help with a property tax reassessment.
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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes
"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
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Randy123
Posts: 5773
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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Keep us up to date on this one Tesla.
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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