Durable Goods Collapsing
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-08-25 08:43
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
Durable Goods Collapsing
 

Now this is weak:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July increased $0.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $193.0 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase followed two consecutive monthly decreases including a 0.1 percent June decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 3.8 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 0.3 percent.

There's nothing good in here.  That headline number masked monstrous weakness when one looks ex-transports.  Most of the transport gains were in non-defense aircraft and parts.

Worse, if you remember, one of my leading indicators is computers and other technology products - specifically, the backlog. 

Eek.

Backlog is basically gone, but what's worse is that on a month-over-month basis new orders have collapsed.  This puts the lie to the claim made by many that there will be any sort of meaningful support coming from technology.  Sorry, but no.

Electrical equipment new orders were likewise down almost 6%.  But the damage didn't end there:

Machinery July by genesis

These things are the means of production and their new order flow is in all-on collapse.

Granted, this is a volatile series.  But it is also "seasonally adjusted", which means that we should not see large variations on a "random" basis, assuming that the "adjustments" actually are honest (and who knows if they are.)

This was a very weak report, albeit not something that I find unexpected.  Indeed, I was wondering how long the so-called "inventory cycle" nonsense would  come to an end.

The answer is, apparently, "now."

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

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User Info Durable Goods Collapsing in forum [Market-Ticker]
Dashingdwl
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Hold me.

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Widgeon
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That Hindenburg is Carrying Nukes.

Goforbroke
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Expy's apparently thinking of buying a front loading washer and dryer. That should help.

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Widgeon
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smiley
End_the_bubbles
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Where are all the clowns who were talking recovery? Are they still going to get their bonuses? Yep.

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Blackswan
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but Clown National Broadcast Corp said it was not bad.

In most good to average years (ponzi years included)..

Is there not usually an uptick in orders and inventory build for the holidays at this time of year?

Widgeon - Nukes would probably be a blessing. Probably justcarrying dirty bombs so we all suffer a slow painful economic death.

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Smacktle
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Doesn't bode well for my industry. I need **** to carry around!

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Poorslob
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This is a good report , not maybe for the reflate at all costs crowd, but as most know on this site, if you are broke you MUST stop spending for a while.

Lowcarb
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What is the Census Bureau doing reporting on this sort of thing?

Aren't they supposed to just conduct a 10-year census?

Why isn't the Commerce Dept coming out with this news?

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Good question - myabe the Commerce Dept had worse news that Presbo's people at Census smoothed over.
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Its really gross when you get right down to it. I mean these clowns haven't a clue about how to fix the economy and meanwhile so many people will suffer without jobs or futures.

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Poorslob
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No, at least since the 80s-90s(?) they have released. They do all kinds of tracking and census type activities to "support" these releases.

I guess you could go to the Census site and I think you will find mucho info there.
Mannfm11
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maybe that is what all those census workers were for, to wear out car and increase durable goods demand?

In any case, I always have a hard time with these reports, as they are sliced and diced so much. I can see the exclusion of planes and defense because planes are ordered in large orders from time to time and could skew the numbers. They are made on an assembly line with generally a backlog of orders and would have little effect on the current economy.

The question is, increase over what? We had all this news about how much exports in Japan were up, but when you consider they were down 50% to start, they needed 100% to get even. The same holds true of the stock market, the story about the massive gain, which really only made it back to the bottom is in bottom of July 2008. Most of that gain was the losses that transpired in the crash between the first of September and thanksgiving. To think the idiots tried to buy it up between FNMA Monday and the TARP and they forget to tell us the market was over 1200 SPX and the Dow as high as 10,900 just before the TARP. Most people in the market had their finger in their ass while Wall Street was shorting them stock and had no money to buy the rally, so they are down 20+% from the peak, hearing about this massive good news. STick save and a good time to get out with your shirt, unless you believe the nonsense the market is undervalued. They are merely finding new ways to lie. If you believe the market is cheap, I advise you take a look at the times when the SPX traded at a 3% dividend yield or lower and how it did the next 20 years. Bond rates were cheap in the 1950's, go check. The Dow was 1000 in 1966 and about 1500 in 1986. The price level had tripled, meaning you lost half your money and still owed the government capital gains.

Of course the story is pent up demand. For what? More credit? They have been selling trucks the past 15 years, not cheap compact cars. They have to hold up to construction workers and farmers. The rebound will be disappointing and Koreans are building pretty solid models now, so kiss our ass UAW. The tech industry has been resting on a capital spending rebound. Where they are trapped is their **** is rapidly obsolete, so if this years model isn't bought, it has to go on the heap. Remember, all these outfits have so much cash and should be throwing it out the window. They will, but it will be to buy back stock management is selling.

The question is, who needs a new group of computers? I bet 90% of the ones on desktops far exceed the needs of the user. With backup drives and other safety features, I think I would drive them into the ground and then consider buying some late model used stuff if I was a small business. There are enough out there that I venture there are some perfectly good ones being used for trotline weights.

I have decided the reason the yen is rising is for 2 reasons. The government inflated all they could and the government is now borrowing all the yen available in the Japanese economy, so they are having to borrow dollars to buy yen. The US capital goods industry should be getting a boost out of this, but I suspect it is taking capital out of the US. As is the Obama deficits that much of would likely be the McCain deficits, if we had a different election result. The **** is going to hit the oscillator when all this comes unwound.

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Unknownsailor
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Randy, these clowns you speak of definitely have ideas how to fix the economy, the problem is that reality will rudely intrude, and their ideas will not work because of it.
Only a stable and predictable regulatory environment will fix the economy, but this administration isn't interested in that.

Reason: Cant spel clowns :)
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I disagree. I don't think they are as evil as everyone else. Dumb maybe. I never think it is too late too fix until it is. If Japan is a lesson on QE, Ben will realize it won't work.

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Jonathanr
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Quote:
Its really gross when you get right down to it. I mean these clowns haven't a clue about how to fix the economy and meanwhile so many people will suffer without jobs or futures.


By definition, the economy is self-organising. It can't be fixed. TPTB just need to leave it alone for a bit (quite a bit). Let it heal.

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