Heh, Someone Gets It (Buiter)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-04-29 10:18
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
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Heh, Someone Gets It (Buiter)
 

Hattip Zerohedge:  (The original article is here)

Note the structural deficit number.  This is what happens when you allow this to go on for a decade:

Which in turn leads to this:

That red line is actual private demand expressed as the delta (or change) in GDP.

I don't have accurate debt and GDP numbers on a contemporary basis for the rest of the nations that Buiter cites, and besides, I focus on the United States anyway.

Buiter posits that The Fed could eventually be "forced" to monetize - that is, try to inflate it away.

This is where Buiter and I part company, because it is impossible to inflate out of a mess like this when you have social spending indexed to inflation - and our entitlement programs all are in one form or another, with the most-ridiculous, Medicare, rising at much higher rates than general inflation.

As such attempting to "inflate out" won't work - it will instead result in Weimar-style hyperinflation which, as it did in Weimer, will inevitably result in political and economic collapse.

Note that Bernanke has said "we cannot grow out of this"; he has (belatedly, but surprisingly) finally "gotten it."

It would have been nice if he "got it" three years ago, of course.  It might have altered his view on bailing out people and providing artificial support instead of demanding ab-initio not only the legal ability but the legislative mandate to close all of the so-called "too big to fails" and use the funds we have blown to pay off depositors instead.

Yes, that would have resulted in a Depression being "recognized." 

But we're in one now, as the above chart shows conclusively, and we have in fact been in one for two years.  There is no evidence we're going to get out of it either - the only way that can happen is if private final demand replaces the government borrow-and-spend, and for that to happen deficit spending must decline while GDP continues to advance.

When you're borrowing from $115 to $333 billion a month and pumping it into the economy - that is, from roughly 9% to 30% of GDP - there's zero evidence that this can or will occur, and in fact despite all the market and media crooners claiming "it's getting better" the mathematical facts say exactly the opposite - it is in fact getting worse, as government replacement of private final demand with borrowed money is going up, not down.

That recognition of the math is starting to seep into the consciousness of economic analysts at major international banks is an important signpost. 

The next one will be when recognition of the same math starts to poke through the mainstream media - despite strident claims otherwise from Geithner and others. 

Once that second signpost is reached there will no longer be time or opportunity for government to proactively respond.  The market will, at that point, take final and irrevocable control.

If Obama has any intelligence at all he will fire Summers and Geithner immediately and in doing so stick them with responsibility for refusal to deal with the truth, close or break up the too-big-to-fails (via executive order if he can't get a bill passed immediately - yes, I know that will raise howls of protest but this truly is a national emergency!) and demand reimposition of Glass-Steagall and mark-to-market - right here, right now, forevermore.

The tough choices are never popular, but mathematics doesn't care about popularity, and as recognition is now seeping into the "mainstream economists" employed by major multinational financial institutions it is simply a matter of time before they ENFORCE austerity and withdraw their support for the markets if it is not forthcoming.

All I can say is "see, I told you so!"

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User Info Heh, Someone Gets It (Buiter) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Rarnopp
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Buiter is one of the few commentators in the mainstream media (he writes for the "Financial Times") that I have any time for.

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Etz
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He no longer writes for FT. He sold out to ****ty bank.

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Shoobedoowa
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I think that the assumption that entitlements indexed to inflation will significantly counter the effects of printing.....is flawed.

There are many ways to cheat such indexing.

For example:

- Make social spending subject to means testing (eg. if you have income over $30,000, then you do not qualify to receive SS).

- Erroneously state inflation rates.

I think it a mistake to underestimate the tools available to a corrupt government.
Genesis
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Doing so is equivalent to withdrawing the social spending (that is, if the outcome of that would be civil war, removing the indexing results in civil war.)

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
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What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Cornedmutton
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Karl - Sometimes I think you ENJOY hitting your head against the wall.

Obama will NEVER fire Summers and Geithner - he can't. They're all in bed together. They're tied at the hip - they're fates are interconnected. If one were to roll on the others they would all suffer the same. They have but one choice: forward. It's the same situation we're in economically. We'll all just pretend everything is OK and continue to cover up any signs otherwise, all the while secretly hoping for a miracle to save us all.

Well, it ain't coming. But that doesn't mean anything's going to change.

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It could be done as a phased approach.

It is a form of kicking the can. The possibility of significant civil "unrest" could be delayed for some time.
Genesis
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Bull****.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Fatherofreds
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That seems like a "either/or" kind of viewpoint. Could there be a middle ground? What strategies could TPTB try to play this? Revive something like the Nixon price freeze in the 1970s? Granted that never works but could they still try? Using a debit card for food purchases that does not use a dollar amount (this card is good for 4 gallons of milk, 8 loaves of bread, 10 cans of beans, etc.)? Using another debit card for energy ( good for 2000 Kilowatts of electricity and 10 gallons of gas)? Just trying to think outside of the box. Father of Reds (I paid how much for the University degree and you are a commie?)

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Ldog
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Put on your tennis helmets TFers. This is gonna get interesting.
Bagbalm
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I was working during the Nixon wage price freeze. It was a year and a half disaster. It didn't work. There are too many ways to game things. Want to raise prices? You withdraw all your current models and the new ones are all priced higher. Worse some people will just withdraw from the market if they can't get what they expect. So we have shortages. (and black markets)
Leicestersq
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Looks to me like the US does have too much debt, it will have to monetise.

Those debts that arent linked to inflation, can be inflated away. But if the index linked debts are too large in proportion to the real output of the US, then America has one of two choices.

a) Renege on those debts. This might be difficult legally, but if a legal way is found then this could be achieved.

b) If the US doesnt renege on its debts, then the dollar collapses. Mathematically there is no other way out.

So its either default via inflation, or default.

Given the certainty of one of these two outcomes, it is difficult to understand why a rational market would hold either dollars or US government debt.
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Gen wrote..
it is impossible to inflate out of a mess like this when you have social spending indexed to inflation

Yep, Bernanke admitted as much in his recent testimony when asked about "inflating our way out of our debt".

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Fatherofreds
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Bag, I was working then also and know it did not work, but as I pointed out they might still try to buy time. I am amazed that TPTB have kicked this can down a highway for so long. Underestimate them and you lose a lot of money (how I eneed up here). I just think they will engineer something. Father of Reds

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Bagbalm
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Agreed they may try something like that. The O ego is so huge he may decide he can simply set interest rates by decree. Even Nixon only tried to influence them.

Stoverny
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Read somewhere that the only reason the US can still borrow money, given our deficits, is because foreign investors know that the US citizen still has plenty of room to be taxed more.
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I hear you... but the Kool Aid drinkers over at Dow Jonestown are still thirsty...

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The assumption is that there is a genuine interest at the top in seeing the dollar continue in its current form. As has been pointed out ad nauseum the current path is unsustainable and destined to collapse. Does it sound reasonable that those pulling the levers don't realize this as well? Do you think the people making decisions at the top really don't know what they're doing and only now see the folly of their ways? I believe they know exactly what they are doing. As to the end game, my best guess is replacement with some form of electronic carbon credit scheme, but who the hell knows.

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Gen wrote..
If Obama has any intelligence at all he will fire Summers and Geithner immediately and in doing so stick them with responsibility for refusal to deal with the truth, close or break up the too-big-to-fails (via executive order if he can't get a bill passed immediately - yes, I know that will raise howls of protest but this truly is a national emergency!) and demand reimposition of Glass-Steagall and mark-to-market - right here, right now, forevermore.


That assumes that he shares your value system and actually wants to save capitalism. I don't think he does. I think he views our economic system as unfair, evil, unjust, etc...

I believe he'll be happy to watch it collapse in on itself so he can rebuild it into something a little more, what's the word.. fair for everyone.

As a matter of fact.. I bet he can't believe his LUCK! Walkin right into a crisis of this magnitude (never let a good crisis go to waste) gives him a tremendous head-start in fundamentally remaking the economy.

I've never been this fearful for the future of my country.

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Pika-steph
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Ktrosper +1. ESPECIALLY in light of this: http://www.tickerforum.org/cgi-ticker/ak....


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Steelhead23
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Karl, I could not possibly agree with you more. However, your wished-for Obama epiphany is not going to happen - in part perhaps because he got tons of money from the Street, but also because it would be political suicide. That is, he would not be credited with setting the stage for a prosperous future by MSM (the corporate mouthpiece). Rather he would be blamed for causing a depression. Now, it is possible he would do something like this two years plus hence, following re-election, but by then it might be too late. At this point I would be pleased if he simply stood strong behind derivative regulation, including forcing all transactions into a public exchange, but I won't hold my breath.

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Ostriches
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Bernanke got it. And, he got his banking pals a nice good bailout, too. Then, only after that, has he now managed to crawl up his stump to decry the amount of debt.

I guess when you are that low and slithering, it can take some time to crawl up a stump.
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Genesis wrote..
Doing so is equivalent to withdrawing the social spending (that is, if the outcome of that would be civil war, removing the indexing results in civil war.)

Why would the outcome necessarily be "civil war"? Most of the entitlement spending is on Social Security and Medicare. All the government has to do is tell seniors that their retirement won't be as comfortable. They might vote one bunch of bastards out, but they'll also just vote another bunch of bastards in.

If you mean that slashing welfare will cause the underclass to riot, all you have to do is look back to the Republican reforms of the mid-1990s. No riots, no chaos. A small part of the welfare class, for a brief time, actually got off their asses. The removal of those reforms enabled them to go back on their asses a few years later.

Likewise, mere indexing would result in welfare queens buying less drugs, fewer 70" flat-panel TVs, and so on. They might be*****ed off that they have to drop down to a mere 55" flat-screen, but they don't vote anyway, and they're mostly too lazy to riot.

In other words, BOTH sides of your argument don't work. Civil war is not a necessary result, and even if it were, the indexing wouldn't trigger it anyway.

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Genesis
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Good luck with that premise.

The bastards get voted out, the pensions get maintained, and rollover fails.

This "withdrawal" doesn't happen slowly. It happens at all once.

You're wrong, but I'll be happy to sit back and watch it happen. Just don't expect me to help you out when it does.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Eaglewwit
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I think we are missing the obvious. WAR. If you have war then they have an enemy to focus the people on while they take away the entitlements. This way the reduce the chances of civil unrest. And, obviously the current small Wars are not enough.
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