Sheepskins Should Stay On Foreskins (Galbraith)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-03-08 10:13
by Karl Denninger
in Editorial
Ignore this thread
Sheepskins Should Stay On Foreskins (Galbraith)
 

In this case, on Galbraith father's foreskin.  We would have been spared this intellectually-bankrupt and fallacious bit of spooge:

The Simpson-Bowles Commission, just established by the president, will no doubt deliver an attack on Social Security and Medicare dressed up in the sanctimonious rhetoric of deficit reduction.

....

But what would be the economic consequences if they did? The answer is that a big deficit-reduction program would destroy the economy, or what remains of it, two years into the Great Crisis.

Now that is Grade "A" hyperbole.  Let's examine it and see if there's any reasonable basis behind the claim.

To put things crudely, there are two ways to get the increase in total spending that we call "economic growth." One way is for government to spend. The other is for banks to lend. Leaving aside short-term adjustments like increased net exports or financial innovation, that's basically all there is. Governments and banks are the two entities with the power to create something from nothing. If total spending power is to grow, one or the other of these two great financial motors--public deficits or private loans--has to be in action.

Well, no.

There is only one way to get an increase in total spending that is sustainable: you must increase net production of "stuff", whether that is goods or services.

Wealth is not debt.  It is production.  It can only be mined, manufactured or grown. The only free lunch that is available is the power of the Sun, and that's only 'free" because we are too puny to measure in astrophysical time scales (if we weren't we'd realize that even the Sun's energy is in fact neither free or inexhaustible!)

With government, the risk of nonpayment does not exist. Government spends money (and pays interest) simply by typing numbers into a computer. Unlike private debtors, government does not need to have cash on hand.

.....

But no government can ever be forced to default on debts in a currency it controls. Public defaults happen only when governments don't control the currency in which they owe debts--as Argentina owed dollars or as Greece now (it hasn't defaulted yet) owes euros. But for true sovereigns, bankruptcy is an irrelevant concept.

That's the biggest load of bilge I've read in years.

While it is technically true that a government that has control of its own currency can print as much as it wants, it is not true that printing that currency with wild abandon is cost-free, and the more inter-connected one's economy is with other sovereigns that also have control of their currency the more dangerous unbridled printing is.

Weimar Germany had control of their own currency, and we all saw what happened to them.

Nor is public debt a burden on future generations. It does not have to be repaid, and in practice it will never be repaid.

This is true but also intentionally misleading.

The issue is not whether the debt will be paid off - it is that the interest payments are not under the issuing nation's control.  Demanded rates are a function of perceived ability to tax from the citizens the revenue necessary to cover that interest coupon.

Due to inefficiency in the economy (again, back to thermodynamics principles - no transfer of anything is ever 100% efficient) the money "printed" will fail to be entirely transmitted to the citizens in a form and fashion that can be taxed.  Indeed, they must spend some of it in order to survive.  This leads less than all of it available to be taxed away to cover those interest payments.

Nor is that interest a solvency threat. A recent projection from the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, based on Congressional Budget Office assumptions, has public-debt interest payments rising to 15 percent of GDP by 2050, with total debt to GDP at 300 percent. But that can't happen. If the interest were paid to people who then spent it on goods and services and job creation, it would be just like other public spending.

Galbraith assumes that the interest is owed to US Citizens.  It is, to a large degree, not.  Those interest payments drain the economic vitality and future of the nation to foreign nations, as a vampire drains its victims blood.

So the fact that we're buying a lot of goods from China simply means we have to be more imaginative, and bolder, if we want to create all the jobs we need.

Really?  How does one compete with a wage of $1/day (in yuan, of course)?  Why by destroying one's standard of living, that's how.  This in turn destroys the tax base and we're right back where we started - without the ability to pay interest except by destruction of the currency, which in turn forces the cost of imports higher.

That in turn ruins the citizen's discretionary purchasing power as the most-sensitive import to currency depredation is petroleum, which we (due to our own idiocy over the course of more than 30 years) are effectively forced to purchase from foreign interests. 

But petroleum is in literally everything.  It is not only in things that are obvious (e.g. gasoline and fuel oil) but is an essential component of literally everything we buy.  Our modern food production system is dependent on petroleum for planting, fertilization, irrigation, harvest, processing and transportation.  Every item in your home or office that contains plastic or rubber contains petroleum, from the wrapper for your meat at the grocery store to your computer monitor, television set, the shingles on your roof and the tires on your car (not to mention its interior!)

But right now, we don't have functional big banks. We have a cartel run by an incompetent plutocracy, with its long fingers deep in the pockets of the state. For functional credit to return, we'll have to reduce the unpayable private debts now outstanding, to restore private incomes (meaning: create jobs) and collateral (meaning: home values), and we'll have to restructure the big banks.

You can't restore that which wasn't there.

Home values were false - fraudulently so.  They were pumped by charlatans pushing cheap credit and bogus appraisals.  The utility value of a home is to give you a place to hang your hat, take a dump and stick your bed where you won't be eaten by mosquitoes while you sleep.  This value is, and should be, able to be purchased for an average family for the price of somewhat near or less than one year's family wage, free and clear, without ongoing tax encumbrance.  Consider this: What did the settlers of this nation have to pay for their house?  On the prairie they were "raised" by the local community in a day or two, then finished by the family over time.  Were there 250 man-days that went into raising such a house?  Nope.  Yet that's the definition of one year's family income, right?

Over time we have thought of homes as financial assets, but they're not.  They're shelter.  They perform an essential function and as such allowing the nation's banks and other financial wonks, like Galbraith, to get their teeth into them has been incredibly lucrative - for the wonks.  For the rest of the nation it has spelled ruin every time it has occurred - 1873 (and before), 1929, and now in 2007.  In each case "real property" became the object of monstrous speculative froth unrelated to the utility value of the asset, and in each case economic malaise inevitably followed.

We need to break them up, shrink the financial sector overall, expose and prosecute frauds, and create incentives for profitable lending in energy conservation, infrastructure and other sectors.

That indeed is necessary.  But doing so will inevitably cause the speculative froth to come out in all of these asset classes.  Homes will contract to no more than 3x incomes on average, and likely lower.  If we contract homes to utility value they'll shrink in price to between 1x and 2x incomes, and property taxes will disappear. 

This, of course, is anathema to federal, state and local governments, not to mention the very institutions that were responsible for the speculative froth and fraud.  It is therefore perhaps a bit disingenuous to call for that which you know must happen while at the same time stating that we must restore bubble values to certain asset classes, for both cannot happen at the same time.

Either way, until we have effective financial reform, public budget deficits are the only way toward economic growth.

Deficit spending is not economic growth.  If I lose my job and use my credit card to sustain my lifestyle, I have not experienced "economic growth."  Quite to the contrary, should I represent to anyone - including myself - that my economic situation is stable or improving through such a display of abject stupidity all I have done is perpetrate a fraud upon those who I communicate such a claim to.

The sort of vacuous nonsense that Galbraith displays is why we're in this mess.  For the good of our nation this sort of stupidity must be banished in favor of embracing the truth: we have not lived in a nation of economic progress based on innovation and production for three decades, and we cannot return to a stable economic condition until the speculative froth - and the debt it engendered - is removed from our financial and economic system.

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

The Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online for non-commercial purposes provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media or for commercial use.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
User Info Sheepskins Should Stay On Foreskins (Galbraith) in forum [Market-Ticker]
2banana
Posts: 337
Incept: 2008-02-25

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
Deficit spending is not economic growth. If I lose my job and use my credit card to sustain my lifestyle, I have not experienced "economic growth." Quite to the contrary, should I represent to anyone - including myself - that my economic situation is stable or improving through such a display of abject stupidity all I have done is perpetrate a fraud upon those who I communicate such a claim to.


For some reason in America we think the following is true:

Credit = Wealth and therefore Debt = Wealth

Wealth only comes from one place - producing it through the hard work of manufacturing, mining and farming.

Debt comes from banks. Signing a piece of paper does not make wealth.
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10325
Incept: 2009-02-17
Green
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Galbraith is bursting full of ****.

----------
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Sharon
Posts: 4352
Incept: 2008-02-10
Green
Odessa, Missouri
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I LOVE this part:

Quote:
The utility value of a home is to give you a place to hang your hat, take a dump and stick your bed where you won't be eaten by mosquitoes while you sleep. This value is, and should be, able to be purchased for an average family for the price of somewhat near or less than one year's family wage, free and clear, without ongoing tax encumbrance. Consider this: What did the settlers of this nation have to pay for their house? On the prairie they were "raised" by the local community in a day or two, then finished by the family over time. Were there 250 man-days that went into raising such a house? Nope. Yet that's the definition of one year's family income, right?


IMO, this is the way young people starting out in life should think--and old people, and everyone in between. People should be able to buy a parcel of vacant land and put any kind of dwelling they want on it, however modest, without interference from codes inforcement--beyond certain requirements that can be factually demonstrated to impact public health. (I won't go into a laundry list on this. You all know what I'm talking about.)

There is really no reason why a family with a modest income couldn't save enought to buy a piece of vacant land outright, provided it's not within city limits--and possibly even if it is. I haven't checked in awhile, but I think you can still buy vacant land for $5,000-$10,000 an acre around here, and I think much less in many cases. At that point, the family could build a modest home, with an eye to expanding over time--or put a used trailer on it, while construction of permanent living arrangements is underway.

The benefits to the family and the community would be immense. The family would have little or no debt. The $10,000 per year (or more) that would have gone to the bank to pay mortgage interest would be spent in the community.

If everyone in my area had no mortgage debt, right here/right now, the amount of money circulating in the community--and staying here, instead of being siphoned off to the Hamptons--would be...well, it would be a LOT more.

Building, as a "work in progress" would employ a lot more local people, too. The social benefits of calling on your neighbors to do work that is beyond your expertise, or that you don't have time for, are immense. So are the financial benefits, by the way.

The use of credit for anything is an exercise in allowing a HUGE percentage of both personal and community wealth to be siphoned off.

----------
Semper ubi sub ubi.

Corduroy
Posts: 39
Incept: 2009-11-18

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I try to avoid hyperbole, but this is a GREAT Ticker.

This "As the sovereign issuer of the currency, the US can never default..." meme needs to be exposed as bunk, and quick.

Karl wrote..
The issue is not whether the debt will be paid off - it is that the interest payments are not under the issuing nation's control. Demanded rates are a function of perceived ability to tax from the citizens the revenue necessary to cover that interest coupon.

Succinct, insightful, and spot-effing-on.

Steelhead23
Posts: 2043
Incept: 2008-09-09
Green
Portland OR
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Once again I note that some folks attribute to John Maynard Keynes what should be left to Santa Claus. A more comprehensive reading of Keynes would note that:
Quote:
Keynes, who was a defender of the system, but who advocated policies that went beyond what the capitalist class itself was willing to accept, proposed as solutions to these problems: the “euthanasia of the rentier,” a substantial decrease in capital’s share of income, and “a somewhat comprehensive socialisation of investment.” He also pointed to the need for enhanced civilian government spending to fill the gap in effective demand and move the economy toward a full-employment equilibrium. And he argued for limited controls on international movements of capital. JB Foster

http://www.monthlyreview.org/090302foste....

It seems that only the "government as buyer of last resort" remains of Keynes theory. Galbraith should know better.

----------
"Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" —Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild Benjamin Bernanke
For-profit commercial banks are a menace and should be eradicated
Phev
Posts: 440
Incept: 2009-05-17

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Wealth is not debt. It is production."

Karl Denninger = Jean Baptiste Say
Shrpblnd
Posts: 1205
Incept: 2007-08-06
Green A True American Patriot!
Los Angeles, CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Quote:
But petroleum is in literally everything... Every item in your home or office that contains plastic or rubber contains petroleum

I have previously wondered what would happen if transportation (i.e. autos) dramatically increased their mileage through technology (hybrids, fuel cells), and therefore lowering overall consumption of oil, what would be the impact on petroleum byproducts like plastics. Our economy has long considered plastic "cheap" and when these changes the impacts will be felt very broadly.

Themortgagedude
Posts: 8853
Incept: 2007-12-17
Green
saint louis
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What is your "Four Point Plan" to restore economic growth. Have I been missing something? I'm in total agreement that what we've had is not growth but I need to see a way to grow the economy in the future. Can we do it against $1 a day labor across the world without trade restrictions?

----------
I'm already visualizing you with duct tape over your mouth.
Rvacha
Posts: 8295
Incept: 2008-10-03
Gold
Cleveland
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thank you - I'm glad someone destroyed this trash

----------
"I suggest you panic." - Hugh Hendry
Adrenaline_junky
Posts: 1869
Incept: 2007-09-14
Green
Chicago
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I hope you submitted this rebuttal directly to The Nation. Never know, they could print it.

----------
"If Goldman Sachs is doing God's work, they must be referring to the cruel God of the Old Testament who brought forth plagues, floods, and pestilence." - Me
Donethat
Posts: 771
Incept: 2009-04-22

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List


As housing reverts to shelter based pricing a lot of tick birds on this US economy are going to get some revenue changes. I am thinking insurance, cell phones, long distance phone, land line phone, Murdoch's newspapers, cable and satellite TV, charities, tourism, restaurants, movies ....
Rantocanada
Posts: 81
Incept: 2009-12-06

South of the North Pole
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
What?! Do you mean that housing isn't an extension of my phallic thingy?

----------
The Truth is right here... err, wait. Well, it WAS there just moments ago!
Laura
Posts: 3946
Incept: 2008-05-05
Green A True American Patriot!
Peoples Republic of Florida
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Nope, not any more than your vehicle is.

Thanks Gen for dissecting Junior's thesis.

----------
www.................

End_the_bubbles
Posts: 9522
Incept: 2009-03-25
Green
The New 3rd World
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
How did someone with such a brilliant father turn out to be such a ****tard?

----------

In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Laura
Posts: 3946
Incept: 2008-05-05
Green A True American Patriot!
Peoples Republic of Florida
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It happens.

----------
www.................
Snowman
Posts: 1798
Incept: 2009-03-09
Green
avoiding yellow snow
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I am in China this week, Shanghai, Hong Kong and other places. While idiotic economists in America spew nonsense, the folks here pay in cash because they don't go into debt, save their money, and then spend it. At least capitalism is alive and well in some parts of the world.
Tesla
Posts: 15542
Incept: 2008-04-03
Green A True American Patriot!
State of Disbelief
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
end_the_bubbles - because the father was a ****tard too. The son is just regurgitating the father.

----------
"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Jubber
Posts: 14138
Incept: 2007-07-05
Gold
UK
Online
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Excellent essay Karl!

----------

“The problem with socialism is that, sooner or later, you run out of other people’s money.” Thatcher
Silvia2006
Posts: 15
Incept: 2009-05-15

Kansas City area
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"On the prairie they were "raised" by the local community in a day or two, then finished by the family over time. Were there 250 man-days that went into raising such a house? Nope. Yet that's the definition of one year's family income, right?"

Yes, but those houses were more or less functionally equivalent to one or two toolsheds with insulation and a wood burning stove added. No electricity no plumbing, and very small.

We do have a serious problem with regulations driving up prices to the point that even here in the middle of the country where land is plentiful houses cannot be built for less than $175,000.
Burya_rubenstein
Posts: 945
Incept: 2007-08-08

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I've said quite a few times on this forum that 3X median income was still too much, and I wanted it to be 1X, or even 0.1X median income. Housing has long been the 900 pound gorilla in everybody's budget. It's about time that this change, as I've never seen a good reason for it.

Sylvia's right to an extent. Today's houses have more in the way of utility than a house built in 1850. However, we also have, or ought to have by now, better house-building technology.

There is one nitpick in the ticker: while Weimar Germany did control its own currency, the debt it owed was denominated in something else if I recall right. But I don't think anybody on this forum is claiming that trashing the currency is cost free. It's just a matter of the detail of who pays the cost and how they pay it.
Laura
Posts: 3946
Incept: 2008-05-05
Green A True American Patriot!
Peoples Republic of Florida
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yes, Telsa, the apple didn't fall far from the tree.

Burya - the pound sterling was once a reserve currency. Things change, it isn't different this time because it's the US.

----------
www.................
Sharon
Posts: 4352
Incept: 2008-02-10
Green
Odessa, Missouri
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I think Burya_rubenstein has it right, in saying that about the maximum you should spend on a house is the equivalent of one year's income. If this means that indoor plumbing, central heat, and A/C are not part of the picture--and you are willing to forego these luxuries until such a time as you can afford them, because it means that much to you to own your own home--you should not be prevented by codes from making this decision.

Speaking for myself, I'd live in a tipi if I had to.

It used to be quite common for a couple to buy a lot in a small town and put up a three-room house. The indoor plumbing came later. Ten years later, the still-young couple would have a four-bedroom, two-bath home, with an attached garage--debt-free. There are now few places where you would be allowed to do this.

As far as I can see, the only reason why this has been made so difficult is that it doesn't produce any income for bankers--or realtors, or real-estate developers.

It seems to me that every possible angle to force people into debt--especially for housing--has been played.

One way to find out what these angles are is to set out to buy a lot or small acreage and build small and cheap. In all but a few areas, you'll find that codes have been gamed to make this either impossible or a very expensive proposition--or you'll find that this can only be done in a rural area where there are no jobs, because government policies have all but destroyed small business and family farming.

I could go on and on about the government policies that have forced people into housing debt. Suburban development really got its start from the integration of the public schools in the 60s. Predictably, everyone who could afford to move to the suburbs did so--and they usually took a beating when they sold their homes. In the 50s and 60s, rural hospitals were closed. (There used to be a small hospital in every town with a population over 2,000.) Passenger-train service and bus service to rural communities was discontinued. (I think this happened in the 50s.) It used to be quite feasible to live in a rural area and commute to the city to work by train or bus.

Taken altogether, what you had was a forced urbanization of rural people, and a forced suburbanization of middle-class urban people.



----------
Semper ubi sub ubi.
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ