| User Info
| Yeah, This Will Work Out Fine (Budget) in forum [Market-Ticker]
|
Mikeit83
Posts: 964
Incept: 2009-06-19
East Coast
|
Come on gen! Happy days are here again!!! The recessions over... and stop worrying about the deficit! Obama appointed Andy Stern, SEIU boss, to be on the Deficit and Reform committee. (no, I am not kidding) Alls gonna be ok! Stop being so much "the sky is falling" http://www.seiu.org/2010/02/seius-andy-s....Do I really need a /s on my post? :) |
Hihoherewego
Posts: 931
Incept: 2009-02-25
|
One of those general fyi posts here............... Speaking of math, debt, and its permutations, I find Montagne's theories intriguing even if a bit tedius in conveyence at times. Certainly ahem doesn't BS around with those that leave 'gaps' in defending their position. (lol) The point being he uses mathematical constructs. Witness how he rips apart Ellen Hodgson Brown and her apparently very popular and 'highly touted' recent book, Web of Debt, is to say the least quite entertaining. A mathematical mind is a thing of beauty when one is amidst constant disproven dreamers and delusionists these days. (I trust I didn't step on your toes and she isn't one you happen to admire there, Karl.) ;) http://www.perfecteconomy.com/pg-fatal-f....http://perfecteconomy.com/wp/2008/12/22/....As an aside, his discussion on gold and its limitations I found enlightening. http://perfecteconomy.com/wp/category/mp......................... Till debt do us part................ http://www.usdebtclock.org/ |
Mayorquimby
Posts: 13909
Incept: 2008-09-18
The Archaic Past
|
You mean I'm not going to get my Social Security money at 65 in 2039?!
----------
They who wish to hurt you, work within the law.
- Morrissey
Gold is theft.
|
Mikeit83
Posts: 964
Incept: 2009-06-19
East Coast
|
mayor- quit it man... makes my blood boil just thinking about being forced to pay into something I will never see the benefit in.
|
Jamesbond
Posts: 589
Incept: 2009-01-31
|
Quote:*CBO SAYS DEFICIT THIS YEAR TO AMOUNT TO $1.5 TRILLION
*CBO SAYS PUBLICLY HELD DEBT TO GROW TO 90% OF GDP BY 2020
*CBO SAYS OBAMA BUDGET WOULD PRODUCE $9.76 TRILLION IN DEFICITS Nevertheless, we should feel secure knowing that Obama, Geithner, and Bendover Bukkake have stated publicly that reducing deficits is a primary concern of this Administration ... |
Statusquojoe
Posts: 2784
Incept: 2008-11-20
Land of the fees Home of the slaves.
|
I haven't read the line items but number ($9.76 trillion) seems really low if the TBTF mentality continues to prevail.
----------
There are so many rules no one knows which rules to follow. The only sure rule is more rules will follow. SQJ.
|
Genesis
Posts: 130719
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Perfect Economy is bull**** and is verry close to winding up on the "banned" list for links.
That douche is trying to sell something for personal profit, and the worst part of it is that it wouldn't work.
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Sangell
Posts: 379
Incept: 2009-08-16
|
100% death tax on estates ought to fix everything especially if we make US treasury obligations subject to a supranational death tax. If you own USG debt anywhere in the world and you die your bonds die with you!
|
Throxxofvron
Posts: 10324
Incept: 2009-02-17
Hyper-Speculative Psycho-Facsistic Parabolic Blow-Off
|
----------
DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
|
Hihoherewego
Posts: 931
Incept: 2009-02-25
|
Quote:Perfect Economy is bull****.... Well he does agree with your general take on going back to a gold standard is unworkable and why. At least he's got that going for him.  Ya gotta admit though he ripped the populist premise of Brown's book up pretty good by pointing out the gaps in mathematical logic. Although she does rebut.... http://webofdebt.wordpress.com/questions....And for those somehow interested on why Montagne's position is unworkable this comment was excellent to that effect under the foregoing rebuttal......(link not provided) Republicae, on February 6, 2009 at 6:29 pm Said:....... "The opposition to loan Interest rests in a misconception of what Interest really is and how it functions within an economy. Under the assumptions that wealth.........." Just for entertainment purposes only, Karl. Btw, anyone notice that there is very limited agreement amongst economist-types these days? Man you have to have a big brass pair to deal with all the jabs. I think I'd rather be a punch drunk palooka. Yowza it's rough out there. My hats off to the Karl's of the world. lol ..................... Debt on the house for everyone.............. http://www.usdebtclock.org/ |
Vegansharky
Posts: 1431
Incept: 2008-09-20
Orlando, Floriduh
|
First of eight-9 minute videos, to get you started if you are interested in a lecture by Dr. Algert A. Bartlett, Professor Emertus, Department of Physics, Univ of Colorado-Boulder. It all about exponential math applied to the real world. I love it. Especially the part where he makes the governing body look foolish with math. This is really for lay people (like me) and Politicians (they need the rude awakening), I guess, because a lot of you are aware. It is relevant to what Karl is talking about, I reckon. The Title: The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F-QA2rkpB....This link leads to the subsequent links. VS
----------
BP Sucks Tar Balls.
The spin is the new tin.
Skull Squicked Nation
|
Eternalblue
Posts: 4721
Incept: 2007-08-09
sokali
|
Quote:Yet if GDP rises at a compound rate of 4% for the entire ten year period (no more recessions!) the tax base upon which to assess taxes to pay that quadrupled interest expense will expand by only 48%. assuming IRX stays near zero? |
Genesis
Posts: 130719
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Which it won't.
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Mikek31
Posts: 4350
Incept: 2009-05-04
Chicago
|
But but but, Japan's public debt is 200% of GDP! And they seem to be doing fine.
----------
Everyone keeps looking at the system and saying "it's not working, it needs to be redesigned somehow." It's working exactly the way the people who own it intend it to work.-Sutluc
|
Bustedbuck69
Posts: 479
Incept: 2009-11-10
|
Quote:---The federal government recorded a total budget deficit of $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2009, about $960 billion more
than the deficit incurred in 2008. The federal deficit rose as a share of the nation’s gross domestic product (GDP)
from 3.1 percent in 2008 to 9.9 percent in 2009—the highest deficit as a share of GDP since 1945.
FISCAL YEAR TOTALS
(Billions of dollars)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Receipts 1,880 2,153 2,407 2,568 2,524 2,105
Outlays 2,293 2,472 2,655 2,729 2,978 3,522
Deficit -413 -319 -248 -162 -455 -1,417
Percentage of GDP
Deficit -3.5 -2.6 -1.9 -1.2 -3.1 -9.9
Federal spending and receipts diverged dramatically in
2009, reflecting the weakening economy and the federal
response. The increase in the deficit of almost 7
percentage points of GDP from 2008 reflected a sharp
drop in revenues and a substantial increase in spending.
RECEIPTS AND OUTLAYS
AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP
Receipts in 2009 tumbled to $2,105 billion, a decrease
of $419 billion, or 17 percent, from 2008. That yearover-
year decline follows a small drop in revenues for
fiscal year 2008 and is the largest annual percentage
decline in revenues in more than seven decades. Total
revenues fell from 17.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 14.8
percent of GDP in 2009; individual income tax receipts
showed the largest decrease—from 7.9 percent to 6.4
percent of GDP.
TOTAL RECEIPTS
(Billions of dollars)
Major Source 2007 2008 2009
Percentage
Change,
2008-2009
Individual Income 1,163 1,146 915 -20.1
Corporate Income 370 304 138 -54.6
Social Insurance 870 900 891 -1.0
Other 164 173 160 -8.0
Total 2,568 2,524 2,105 -16.6---CBO.gov Graph that! One line going from upper left to lower right the other line from lower left to upper right. Corporate income tax receipts are salient indicator of something NOT: 1. Green shoots 2. DOW 15,000 That's it I am no longer dealing with any number with 12 more numbers behind it. I fought denial and denial won.
----------
"---the politicians---they think the laws of mathematics are suggestions." K. Denninger
"The greatest shortcoming of the human race is our inability to understand exponential function." Al Bartlett
Reason: typo
|
Degaston
Posts: 2264
Incept: 2007-07-27
|
Before the politicos get amnesia .... I wanted to make sure the following quote from the SEIU Blog link provided by Mikeit83 gets recorded here.
"The National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform is designed to confront the nation's growing debt and make recommendations for balancing the budget by 2015."
----------
3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
|
Degaston
Posts: 2264
Incept: 2007-07-27
|
One thing for sure is this. We really need to be running very large federal surpluses the next few years before the baby boomers start turning 67 in 2013. From 2020 to 2040 we're going to have some very serious bills to take care of the boomers who will be 56-74 to 76-94 during that era. Thus decade needs to be the decade where we set aside reserves for the next 2 decades. What a shame that the first 2 decades of the new millennium are going to be catastrophically deficit.
----------
3/17/2013: Bullish on nothing - 100 percent in cash.
|
Ben
Posts: 6205
Incept: 2009-10-09
The Distant, Glorious, Past
|
Sangell wrote..100% death tax on estates ought to fix everything especially if we make US treasury obligations subject to a supranational death tax. If you own USG debt anywhere in the world and you die your bonds die with you! Don't pull punches. Be ambitious! 120% death tax on all estates! Get that largess that was "illegally" transferred to relatives, wives and offspring.
----------
"Why are you going to learn French?"
"Because I'm going to France," says Joe.
"I'm from the future. You should go to China."
|
Mo
Posts: 12158
Incept: 2007-06-26
Pa.
|
Quote:Thus decade needs to be the decade where we set aside reserves for the next 2 decades. Demographers ususally describe boomers as those born between 1943 and 1961. Marketers like the 1946-64 timeframe, even though the birthrates picked up during WWII and began crashing in 1962. I also recall reading that at least half of those retiring begin collecting SS at 62. We're already in the SS storm, with the eyewall approaching around 2015-2020. Good thing boomers all gave up smoking so they can collect until their 90's.
----------
Welcome to Pottersville
|
Aagold
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-09-07
Banned
|
Quote:Yet if GDP rises at a compound rate of 4% for the entire ten year period (no more recessions!) the tax base upon which to assess taxes to pay that quadrupled interest expense will expand by only 48%. Karl, I think you're confusing *real GDP* with *nominal GDP*. When people talk about GDP rising at a 4% rate they're talking about real GDP. If we assume a ~2.5% inflation rate, then that equates to a 6.5% nominal growth rate, which compounds in 10 years to an 88% increase in tax revenues. While that's certainly not good enough to handle a 300% increase in interest expense, it's better than a 48% increase. |
Genesis
Posts: 130719
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Quote:I think you're confusing *real GDP* with *nominal GDP*. When people talk about GDP rising at a 4% rate they're talking about real GDP. Wrong. Headline GDP is not in chained constant dollars. It is in "today's" dollars.
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Aagold
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-09-07
Banned
|
Huh? What are you talking about?
Let's say the headline GDP growth number for a given year is "4% GDP growth", and the "GDP price deflator" is measured at 2.5%. That means *nominal* GDP growth was 6.5%. The headline number people always talk about is *real*, not *nominal*.
|
Genesis
Posts: 130719
Incept: 2007-06-26
|
Sigh...
The GDP average growth from 00 onward, in nominal dollars, has been 5.22%.
We put in four quarters of 12-month comparative GDP declines beginning with the flat quarter in Q4 03. Q4 finals are not yet available on the Z1; when they are we'll see what have there.
Given the declining nature of GDP over the last 50 years (6.8% compound 1951-present, 5.4% 1990-present, 5.22% 2000-present) 4% is probably about right for nominal GDP over the next 10 years - assuming no recessions - in nominal figures.
If we double-dip now we'll be lucky to post 3% nominal over the 10 year period.
If you think we're going to get 6.5% nominal over the next 10 years you're absolutely ****ing nuts. That would approach the rate seen in the historical 1950-onward time period when debt levels were a tiny fraction of what they are now. There is not a prayer in hell those sorts of numbers will be posted - they can't be, due to the debt overhang.
It is flatly impossible on a mathematical basis to do so.
I don't take government-reported percentages with **** for precision and "presumed" or "announced" GDP deflators, I take actual numerical GDP numbers and dump 'em into a spreadsheet. This is part of what produces my quarterly Z1 graph set that I present in The Ticker.
(The next update on this is due soon, as the Q4 2009 Z1 will out shortly.)
----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
|
Aagold
Posts: 44
Incept: 2009-09-07
Banned
|
Well, this is another instance where the inflation vs. deflation debate comes up. If you believe that in a paper money system the government can always print enough money to bring about whatever inflation rate they want, then it's pretty easy to get whatever nominal GDP growth rate you want - just use inflation. I know you don't believe the government can inflate through the use of money printing, using your "slippage" argument, but I tend to agree with Bernanke on this one. Now if you're right and deflation rather than inflation is the reality over the next 10 years, then we'll be lucky to have a 0% nominal GDP growth rate...
- aagold
|
