Yet Another Consumer Hosing: 3DTV
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2010-01-04 12:53
by Karl Denninger
in Consumer
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Yet Another Consumer Hosing: 3DTV
 

Let me guess - you were one of the fools who bought a HD TV this Christmas.

Well, I didn't, even though I have a couple of older sets around the house that I might want to upgrade.

Why not?

Just bought a new flat-panel HDTV for Christmas? Enjoying that new Blu-ray disc player? Guess what? They're already obsolete. Everything may be going 3D.

That's why.

This article, by the way, is full of misinformation, such as this:

The glasses aren't like the cardboard goggles that cost less than a dollar and are used in most theaters. That approach lowers the picture resolution of a home movie, and thus reduces the image sharpness.

No it doesn't - that's a bald-face piece of bovine excrement.  The "Real-3D" technology used for most modern 3D movies relies on the polarization of the light to work.  The theater's projector (DLP only here!) projects two images at "double frame rate" and a polarization filter is placed in front of the DLP array.  That filter can switch to emit either right or left circular-polarized light.

The lens in your 3D glasses contain one lens that blocks right-circular polarization light, and other one blocks left.

The polarization filter at the projector is synchronized to the DLP and thus the system emits a "left" and then a "right" frame for each frame in sequence.  The entire active portion of the system is at the projector and thus the required "glasses" are $1 items, containing only a passive and inexpensive plastic circular polarization filter.  This scheme causes a minor amount of visible light output drop (since light that "scatters" improperly from the screen is blocked) which is compensated for by cranking up the light source's output a bit.

Now you know how the theater system works.

Here's the ugly:

This technology will only work with something that can polarize the light output, which in the consumer space means a DLP or LCD projection set - that is, something that is effectively similar to what is in the "digital theater" in terms of how it works.  You need an image source that projects a beam of light into which you can insert the polarization filter, and the DLP or LCD system has to have a high enough frame rate for it to be able to emit two frames in the time that formerly emitted one (e.g. 240hz)

Flat-panel displays of any sort are incapable of producing light with the requisite polarization.  (While you could probably put a filter of the necessary size in front of a flat panel the cost and damage to light output that it would produce makes such an approach prohibitive.)

Therefore the TV makers are trying to "agree" on a standard that requires active shutters in the lenses.  But those things are expensive (~$50/pair), will be somewhat fragile (which they love of course since they will be able to sell you more of them when you break one!) and will require batteries, as they must pick up on a synchronization signal in the picture to be able to time the shutter action to the display.

Notice that this article was published today - and not on Thanksgiving. 

Gee, I wonder why?  There's nothing like screwing the consumer, right?  Get him to buy a nice expensive TV set and/or Blu-Ray player for the holidays and then "oops - you have to buy it again if you want this fancy content."

I smelled this one coming..... it is just another in a long line of "information manipulation" in terms of what "industry" bothers to tell you, the consumer - and when.

Say thanks to all the consumer products makers as you bend over (again) for their bit of misdirection, never mind the adoption of a technical standard that is designed to favor certain manufacturing techniques at your expense, when the alternative - a polarizing filter exactly as is used in the theaters - is just as viable and puts the expense of the system in one place - in the TV - rather than in a forced purchase for everyone who wants to be in the room when the damn set is on!

If you're smart you will "reward" this little bit of intentional withholding of information from you until after Christmas by refusing to buy products from these companies.

All of them.

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User Info Yet Another Consumer Hosing: 3DTV in forum [Market-Ticker]
Sean
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If there was anything worth watching on TV/Movies I might get one.

But somehow I don't think that will ever happen.


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Obsidian
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I bought a Blue ray player this Christmas (PS3) and a 50" Samsung Plasma.

I knew this might be coming, but it was time for this purchase (for other reasons). I didn't want to fork over a fortune for a LED-LCD, and I simply liked the colors on the Plasma better than LCDs.

It's not 240Hz, but it's also not expected to be the main "TV" for more than about 5 years. My next big-screen TV purchase will probably be a pure LED variant (not the current LED backlight, but LCD pixel variant). And by then I expect a 3D standard to be established.


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Sondog
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Hey obsidian I bought nearly the same thing: PS3 and a 52" LCD (Plasma is too reflective to have near a large window which is the case for me).

While I agree no manufacturer would have pushed this too hard during the xmas selling season, I am also with you in that I am happy if I get 5 years out of the current setup. By then the PS3 will probably be obsolete and I'll be ready for the newest TV. The article said this would be a few years away, and then I tack on a couple more years for prices to come down a bit before I buy.

Fred_flintstone
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Stay away from Samsung DLP TV's. LED/LCD are fine but the big DLP's use a mishmash of tech that is very failure-prone. Multiple light tunnel, light engine, bulb failures on mine. HLR6178. Very bad customer service. Kept failing after warranty, they fixed it a few more times but refused to give me a credit towards a new non-DLP TV. Just failed again, the piece of ****. I will be buying a new 120 Hz LCD TV after superbowl + PS3, will not be a Samsung TV though.

Screwing over the consumer with newer better cheaper tech is a tradition.

edit: oh yeah the color wheel failed twice too.

Lowbeyond
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Cant say Im too bothered by this. Hell I bought a hd-dvd player a 18 months before blu-ray won the format war :)

By the time i will want a 3d tv, the current 46" lcd will be relegated to the bed room, where the old crt 27" sony sits (which is dying as we speak)..

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Asianbull
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SAMSUNG 8500 is a work of art.

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Fred_flintstone
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I read a while abck the coolest 3D is a tank like thing that does not require glasses of any kind. Also still waiting on OLED TV's, thin as a piece of mylar overhead projector film. Sony demoed the no glasses 3D tech at a consumer show recently, and the OLED year or two ago. OLED screens are in some thin phones now.
Obsidian
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I fully expect the marketing machine to push faux "Avatar 3D Blue-rays" on the population in a few months. And I bet they'll claim it works on any existing TV.

Sondog, I only watch mine at night, so reflections aren't a problem.

Fred, Sorry to hear that man. I've always had good luck with Samsung monitors, so that's one reason I bought the brand again.


Karl,

I expect shutter style glasses to become the standard. What I fear is that they will not be standardized across brands, and that you might not be able to go see "The Super Bowl in 3D" at your friends without buying glasses that match his TV (brand). In time this might not be the case, but just like with HD-DVD, some early adopters will get hosed.

This time around though there will be no HELOC bubble to fund this. Which might actually bring some sanity to the TV market.

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Jnojr
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Quote:
Stay away from Samsung DLP TV's


I seriously doubt you could find one if you wanted to.

I have a Samsung DLP that I got about two years ago as an extended warranty replacement for my circa-2001 RPTV. It has some "pincushioning" and I called the warranty company again. After several trips out, they admitted that they could not fix it, and the only replacements they offered were obsolete. I tried to get them to trade me for an LCD (funny... they were happy to replace my $2800 RPTV with a $1300 DLP, but not so quick to replace my 41300 DLP with a ~$1500 LCD), but they wouldn't, so I took a check.

Sad thing is, that expensive set is a brick waiting to happen. If anything other than the lamp goes... the whole thing goes to the recycler. The obsolescence built into these things is staggering. A given model is made for a very short period of time. Part of the assembly run is x spare boards. Once that run is over, the line is retooled, and there will never be parts made for that set, ever again. The parts cannot be repaired most of the time... I think power supplies can, but the actual engines? No way.

On the (sort of) bright side, when these things do die, we get far better technology at a much lower price. I'm thinking of grabbing a low-end 42" LCD for my bedroom. For $549, I'll get a set that is orders of magnitude better than the Toshiba 50" RPTV I bought way back when (that set, BTW, was given away on Craigslist after being replaced... there was no way I could have gotten any money for it, and I was happy to have someone haul it off)

Technology is a wonderful thing.
Viper
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I'm not too bothered by this. Nobody has to buy a TV. I look at a TV as a luxury item.

I'm still running an old CRT TV that I bought for $200 smiley

Maybe someday I'll step into the 21st century, but for now I really spend very little time watching TV, movies, or playing video games, so it's hard for me to justify buying anything at this point.
Otiswild
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I dunno, can the polarization be specific enough that it's implemented within extra color bits? Any "deep color" set that can handle at least 30-bit color, shouldn't the polarization be doable within the 6 bits of 'deep' over and above the standard 24-bit gamut? Any HDMI 1.3 device (or 1.3b?) should be able to handle 30-bit color.

That said, I got my JVC 56FN97 about 3 years ago (still working fine, but popping up a 'change lamp' message at each boot) and a bedroom LCD over the holiday, I'm not holding my breath..

Timbo
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Planned obsolescence in consumer electronics is a fact of life. Technology progresses too fast for retail to keep up. Anything short of delivering bits on an open platform is an attempt to gouge you with this year's model.

FOXNews wrote..
There's no broadcast 3D standard, for example, and cable companies are already stretched to capacity trying to deliver HD channels; currently, 3D is beyond their abilities.
DOA. Early adopters, caveat emptor.

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Fred_flintstone
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Yeah that's my strategy from here on out. Buy a little older, proven tech that is good enough at massive discounts, in this case a much smaller LCD (40"). I got so reamed on that 61" DLP, even when buying it at Vann's.

Obs, ordinarily I'd want to buy a Samsung, but I just got so*****ed at the way they handled the DLP thing I just can't bring myself to give them any more of my money. And I have a ****load of other Samsung stuff, that all works fine.

BTW anyone buying a TV ought to look at places like Vann's or OneCall. Free shipping and no taxes, even on monster TV's. They are both factory authorized dealers which I found out is very important for warranty issues.
Genesis
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I have a Samsung DLP and other than a color wheel that detonated in it ($80 to buy another one and about an hour to extract the pieces and replace it) it's been fine. Still on the original lamp with ~2,000 hours on it - no problems at all.

That replaced a 3-gun Mitsubishi that I bought soon after HDTV showed up - that set was ****ALL expensive. When one of the guns went out on it I bought the DLP instead of re-guning the other set. Been happy with it and have definitely got my money's worth out of it.

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J6p
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Even if this hit shelves today it is still going to be awhile before it becomes mainstream. Took HDTVs forever to get there and most channels still aren't offered in it now. I remember the pioneer plasmas being available and costing 12k years ago. I wonder if 3DTV will price the same?

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Otiswild
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@Timbo: Perhaps, but I don't see more than 1080p for consumers for a long time to come, like at least 10 years.. NTSC lasted for what, 50 years? Good thing they could figure out how to mux chroma and luma onto a standard signal.. Perhaps 2160p and greater will just be addenda to ATSC?

Even if ATSC, cable cos, etc. can go higher than 1080p, I doubt the film companies are interested, they've already spent the $$ telecining their libraries to 1080p for DVD/Bluray.. IIRC they were doing HD transfers for regular DVDs (film -> 1080p -> 480p DVD) and some of the first HD/Bluray discs had those xfers, but they've been re-retransferring since the initial HD transfers were 'lazy' ("don't worry about that, it'll go away when we scale to DVD")..

Wis/min
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My Samsung 61" DLP has been just fine thank you.

When I bought it in 2007 1080p was not available in anything near that size for any near the price I paid.

Absolutely beautiful pic after the bulb comes up to temp in a short time It is also claimed to be 3D capable with an update.

Obsidian
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Speaking of gun sets. We had one for a while... an old Sony 100lb coffee table and matching 10' screen... must have been made in the late 70s or early 80s. That thing held up for freaking ever.

How did it die? Freaking short in the POWER cable set the carpet on fire right underneath the set. I bet it would still have worked today if it wasn't for that fire.

Death by Carpet!

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Sqmo
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I still have a Sony Trinitron 20 inch from Sears in 1991. I remember paying $350 for it.

I say don't watch TV and cut the cable/dish.
Fred_flintstone
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There are entire (huge) online forums dedicated to bitching about Samsung DLP failures. It is odd, really hit or miss depending on factors no one knows. My brother has the EXACT same model DLP, it has never failed, and only bulb replacements after 4 years. Mine needed 3 light engines, 2 color wheels, 3 light tunnels, etc. Who knows. The last failure was a light tunnel, it is now a separate part you can buy. When it fails you get a big shadow on one side of the screen. Out of warranty, 200 miles from a Samsung service tech, I ordered the listed part for my TV. Got my TV apart, took out the light tunnel. Wrong part.

As soon as it warms up outside I take my AR15 and the TV out into the woods, and reduce it to smaller pieces for recycling sake. Piece of ****. I had it for 4 years, got maybe 3 months uninterrupted trouble free functioning out of it.

The tech now though has no color wheels, no lamps (LED lights like cars vs old halogen lamps), etc etc.
Pelle031
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While the timing could certainly be considered dubious, I believe it to simply be sensationalism on the article's part and pure bull excrement. If you purchase electronics with the mindset that the minute it's not the latest and greatest, it's obsolete, you should refrain from ever buying as there will always be something new and better coming out.

Now, if the industry announced that since they're not making the money they expected with Blu-ray, they were discontinuing the release of new movies in that format, THEN you'd have a point to make here.

I'm going on 4 years now with my Sony LCD Rear Projection unit. When I bought it, 1080p was just starting to become the rage but this was only 720p. Oh the horrors! Since I don't tend to like to buy first generation 'stuff', I bought it anyway. 4 years later, the industry would consider it obsolete but dammit if watching a football game on this 106" screen ain't just as enjoyable today as it was when I first installed it.
Az
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Wondered why Pioneer announced, a couple of months ago, they would no longer be producing Plasma sets.

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Genesis
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The timing isn't dubious, it's outright scandalous.

I've been aware of work on the engineering side in this area for more than two years. For them to put this article in the news NOW, along with a limp-wristed (and entirely false) claim that they "can't" do this with the same sort of glasses used in the theater for "resolution" reasons is outrageous - and utter horse****.

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Kidhorn
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KD,
3D TV was announced by manufacturers months ago. I bought a 50" Panny Plasma in early July and knew 3D was coming in the 2010 model year.

If you need a TV now, buy one now. There's always something better on the horizon. I don't expect to even consider a 3D TV until they've been out for a couple of years.
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