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| See What They Hide (Retail Results) in forum [Market-Ticker]
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Macfly
Posts: 1454
Incept: 2007-10-05
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http://www.marketwatch.com/story/novembe....story burried on marketwatch.com. headline that same store sales were down a whopping 26%!!!! floated on the marketwatch.com headline scroller .. Quote: By Andria Cheng, MarketWatch
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Despite a barrage of early holiday sales leading up to the Black Friday weekend and easy comparisons against the year-earlier doldrums, retailers' sales numbers in November failed to live up to expectations, suggesting a more competitive December to come.
From Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST 59.10, -1.77, -2.91%) and Walgreen Co. (WAG 38.16, -0.04, -0.11%) to Aeropostale Inc. (ARO 30.03, -2.67, -8.17%) and Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. (PLCE 28.00, -3.58, -11.34%) , retailers turned out disappointing numbers.
Victoria's Secret owner Limited Brands Inc. (LTD 18.16, +0.39, +2.20%) was a rare bright spot, registering an unexpected gain after the lingerie chain posted surprise positive sales.
The numbers so far have coincided with initial holiday results that suggested that while shoppers were lured by early promotions and showed up at stores or online, the increased traffic didn't translate to higher spending per transaction, as shoppers didn't spend beyond the hot deals, analysts said.
Nor did an expected surge in early holiday shoppers materialize into actual purchases, as consumers reported an average 42.2% of their shopping completed through the end of November, compared with 48.3% last year, according to an International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs survey. That signals the high stakes in December for retailers to make plans in their biggest selling quarter, analysts said.
Retailers, which have controlled inventory to limit profit-eroding discounts, also may have to intensify promotions if consumers continued to hold out, they said.
Meanwhile, warmer than usual weather in the month also didn't help with sales of coats and other heavier weight apparel, analysts said.
Among 11 retailers that have reported, 80% of them missed Wall Street expectations, according to Thomson Reuters.
"Earnings estimates for the holiday season and first half of 2010 for most retailers remain too elevated," said Wall Street Strategies analyst Brian Sozzi.
The average spending over the weekend after Thanksgiving declined 7.9% to $343.31, trade group National Retail Federation has said. Mall traffic tracker ShopperTrak said Wednesday holiday-season sales also have gotten off to a tepid start, with total U.S. foot traffic on Black Friday weekend declining 1.1% while sales rose 1.6% as consumers visited fewer stores once they are in the malls.
Making Black Friday weekend sales is critical as analysts said they could represent more than half of the month's total.
Trade group ICSC on Tuesday cut its November sales forecast for a second time to an increase of 3% to 4%. Early in November, it was projecting sales would rise up to 8%.
Wall Street's average November same-store sales estimate for the month has also edged lower after retailers from Macy's Inc. (M 15.76, -0.54, -3.31%) to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT 54.74, +0.17, +0.31%) gave or implied fourth-quarter forecasts that may miss Wall Street expectations. November sales are forecast to rise 2.2%, down from 2.6% at the start of November, according to the average estimate of analysts compiled by research firm Retail Metrics. That compared against a 7.3% drop a year earlier.
Same-store sales, or sales at stores open at least a year, are a key industry performance metric because they exclude sales from newly opened or closed locations. Most retailers release their results on Thursday.
Limited said Thursday that its same-store sales rose 3%. That beat the 2.5% estimated decline in an analyst survey by Thomson Reuters. Victoria's Secret stores posted a 3% gain, compare to analysts' estimate of a 5.3% drop.
Costco sales rose 6%, missing estimates of an 8.1% increase. Excluding gasoline and foreign currency impacts, sales also missed.
Walgreen sales rose 3.9%, missing estimates, hurt by slowing demand for flu products as well as weakness in demand for discretionary goods.
Hot Topic Inc. sales fell 12%.
Children's Place Retail Stores Inc. sales fell an unexpected 13%.
Aeropostale Inc. sales rose 7%., missing Wall Street expectations of a 7.7% gain.
Andria Cheng is a MarketWatch reporter based in New York.
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Mishkin: Do not look into the bag... When you realize what's in the bag, you will realize the dollar is toast. Do not audit the Fed and force us to show what's in the bag. Be warned. Some secrets are best kept in the closet.
Joe Q Public: Mishkin, STFU. Truth wins out eventually. -stuart on ZH
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Pondmaster
Posts: 114
Incept: 2009-06-30
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I spotted the MW article too this A.M. , did some googling found ZIP NADA NIL NOTHING , on any store beating expectations except LTD (from article above only) . MSM sucks big time . TASS has us by the short hairs with the poltiburo propaganda machine in full production .
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Asimov
Posts: 104068
Incept: 2007-08-26
East Tennessee Eastern Time
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I wonder how soon the sale of nbc/cnbc to comcast will change their reporting.
I can't imagine it not getting better...
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It's justifiably immoral to deal morally with an immoral entity.
If you trade based on what other people say, you will lose money. Especially what I say. I won't be held responsible. Festina lente.
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Beausam
Posts: 549
Incept: 2008-12-04
Florida
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Pisani reporting now about bad retail sales. Keep it up Gen...you're getting to them. :)
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The function of the Government is to separate the peasants from their money by pretending to fail.....Reinhardt
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R2judge
Posts: 578
Incept: 2008-04-13
Burbank CA
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You would think that the market would pay attention, for more than just a moment, except that the pumpers are probably trying to get the market to some magic level, like 1250, before it goes south again. Despite a coming recession, the DOW kept slogging its way to 14,000 and even jumped the last 10 yards to get there.
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Racer
Posts: 291
Incept: 2009-09-04
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It does not matter -- this is a jobless, consumerless recovery...
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"The more you buy, the more you save." Consumer's motto.
"Spend nothing, save everything, starve the beast." My motto.
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Randy123
Posts: 5789
Incept: 2008-09-24
Earth
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Tax numbers. The truth is available.
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China is the Enemy. Wake Up.
New Normal. Same As The Old Awful.
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Truesincerity
Posts: 831
Incept: 2008-03-07
Virginia
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Pisani also said, traders ignoring this news as long as liquidity( The FED) is in the markets, which means all bad news will be shrugged off with a nonchalant attitude.
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Do not answer a fool according to his folly, or you will be like him yourself.
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Bsr101
Posts: 15
Incept: 2008-12-21
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This is anecdotal but I went to Costco last night. Got a parking spot in the front row, with many to choose from. It's worse than last year. And this is a Costco in the more upscale part of Salt Lake. In 2007 and earlier, from Black Friday til New Years the store was packed from open til close with people doing their Xmas shopping.
The discrepancy (outright deceit?)in the reporting between the MSM and places like Rueters and here is just incredible. I'm going on my 10th month of unemployment and companies don't hire around the holidays. I'm long lead and food. I've lost faith in anything else...
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Sewerduck
Posts: 164
Incept: 2009-03-18
Norman, OK
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Retailers-....Quote:The 0.3 percent drop, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, is far worse than the original 5 to 8 percent growth forecast, which was whittled down to 3 to 4 percent gain earlier this week. The weak results come on top of a 7.7 percent drop a year ago. Swing and a miss! How can anyone forecast spending to INCREASE when people are out of jobs (no excess cash to spend) and credit card rates are rising (it's dumb to borrow)? These people who forecast increases in spending are probably the same idiots who forecast that this is "THE recovery" and everyone should jump into the stock market. Based on what...a bunch of hand waving and extremely loose historical analogs. Seems to me that the bottom line is this...the mechanisms that were in place to allow ever expanding cheap credit have fallen apart...and we are futily trying to keep the plane up in the air as long as possible, even though both engines are out...and we are headed straight for a mountain! I wonder what all those financial "advisers" will do for work a couple years from now? 
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Drench
Posts: 28631
Incept: 2009-11-10
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Hot Topic is half full of merch relating to the hit Twilight movie New Moon. If their sales are down 12% on the back of this craze, most other retailers are in real trouble.
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Bagbalm
Posts: 4264
Incept: 2009-03-19
Just North of Detroit
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This fits the world view of the administration and their fan boys. They feel that perception is everything - that if people have confidence and everybody THINKS the economy is on the upswing it WILL be. We are screwed because not just the man at the helm but the whole crew think that if they shut their eyes and believe hard enough the iceberg they are aimed at will cease to exist.
It would be bad enough if it was just the economy - but these reality deniers (borrowed their slur) - also think if they click their heels and squint real hard the terrorists will ring them up to do lunch and apologize all embarrassed that they didn't realize we are the good guys. They have no regard for hard numbers and the persistence of age old cycles and the repetition of human nature. Ignore it and reality bites you on the ass.
Something else I suspect they are lying about is the fact many farmers could not get their harvest in this year but they seem to be manipulating the USDA predictions to keep the futures markets down. I suspect they may be doing that to allow their Chinese buddies to buy the soybeans they desperately need at favorable prices since the dollars are turning to crap. Add on high bean prices to a lower dollar and they would be*****ed enough to show it in some unpleasant way.
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Trades50
Posts: 4218
Incept: 2007-10-30
Land of Tax and Spend
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Quote: They feel that perception is everything It worked in 2001. Their trying it out again. Although last time, 2001-2003, people blew their wads on housing. I know of many people that are making less than prior to the last recession. I also know of a number of unemployed technical people. I also know of people that may be unemployed in a year or 2 because Wall Street is pushing firms to reduce labor costs and ship the science/technical jobs overseas. Guess this fantasy land belief has to stretch the limits before reality sets in.
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When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson
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Kidhorn
Posts: 91
Incept: 2009-08-11
Rockville, MD
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I'm convinced the market is being propped directly by the FED and treasury. Their goals are to restore confidence and allow failing institutions like big banks to issue new equity at inflated prices. I would guess their actions probably add about 25 pts per day to the dow.
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Lucky1
Posts: 2020
Incept: 2009-08-05
Pittsburgh
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Wow, Bagbalm: a sort of Wizard of Oz/Titanic mixed analogy! But I get it.
To continue in that vein - I think of Obama and crew as Dumbo holding the feather (apropo, big ears and all)... believing in perception. Dumbo can only fly because it's a Disney fairytale. In reality, Dumbo would be a multi-ton elephant with a single feather - and about as aerodynamic as this economy.
Kid: Are you saying that the FED and Treasury are buying say, the Dow 30, directly? No need for that when they can prop up Goldman with cash injections via AIG to do it, allowing Goldman to churn 3 Billion shares a day and scalp fees on every trx, in exchange for handsome campaign donations in the next cycle. / truth off/
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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
Reason: typo
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Kidhorn
Posts: 91
Incept: 2009-08-11
Rockville, MD
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Lucky1,
I don't think they're buying directly. That would be too risky. I think they're funneling money to market participants with the instructions to use the money to buy certain securities. One of the many reasons they will absolutely not allow themselves to be audited.
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Lucky1
Posts: 2020
Incept: 2009-08-05
Pittsburgh
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OK, Kid. I agree.
Ben is the 'wizard' behind the curtain - a Fed audit would be Toto pulling the curtain back.
The miserable holiday sales season is going to accelerate the CRE collapse timeline. I wonder how many retailers are holding back on renewing January expiring mall leases until the last minute?
Does anyone know if there is a way to figure that out from published information? The malls are going to be colder and darker on the first week in February if these figures hold up.
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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
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Lucky1
Posts: 2020
Incept: 2009-08-05
Pittsburgh
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Sewerduck:
I don't know what all those financial "advisers" will do for work a couple years from now - but I do know this - they won't be working *retail*...!
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"Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy."
-USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928)
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Jackl
Posts: 2237
Incept: 2008-01-17
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I'll never understand why they continue to try fudge numbers in this realm. Either people have disposable money or they don't. Pretending the economy is just peachy isn't going to change that fact. You're not fooling businesses either. Goods move or they don't, rosey reports don't help.
Mental masturbation of the highest order.
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Widgeon
Posts: 13481
Incept: 2007-08-30
Region formerly known as the United States
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Think about it this way ...
... the "real" results are so horrific that even they can't keep them completely hidden for 3 weeks, despite an obvious intent and desire to do so. Wonder how bad the "actuals" really are?
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Mizbear
Posts: 7
Incept: 2009-10-13
Sydney, Australia
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This is purely anecdotal and refers to Australia and not the US, but I thought it worth mentioning anyway.
Went shopping last night at local mall. Got parking straight away, a table at the food court at 6.30pm with no issues at all. The shops were busy-ish, but nothing like I was expecting. The really BIG chain store (Myer) was almost empty by Christmas shopping standards.
The smaller retailers were busier, but only those that specialise in "gifty" type things like games, puzzles, stationery. Jewellery stores were not packed, nor the sound/vision sections of the big chain stores.
The "budget" chain stores were busy, but with mostly small ticket items.
I used to work in retail in the heady days of the late eighties/early nineties and by comparison the shops were virtually empty.
It does not bode well. Unless shoppers go ballisitic right before Christmas, it's going to be a bleak retail situation here as well. According to our Prime Minister and Treasurer, we have "weathered the storm" and "missed most of the global financial crisis".
I don't think so, if last night was any indicator.
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Fletchjr
Posts: 1526
Incept: 2007-07-26
Minnesota
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Cutting consumption is the beginning of the healing process.
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Tm22721
Posts: 976
Incept: 2008-01-09
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Total bank credit declining at 5% per annum...cash remains king..Fed can print and .gov can spend without inflating
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The country is terminally ill and IT JUST WANTS A PILL.
The only way up is down.
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Bozonian
Posts: 19894
Incept: 2007-09-01
Saratoga Springs, New York
Online
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Like I said, the only thing we have to fear, is lack of fear itself.
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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me
Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
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