Tumbleweeds! (Chicago PMI) in [Market-Ticker]

Posted 2009-09-30 09:48
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors

Tumbleweeds! (Chicago PMI)

Gee, I thought the economy was improving?

SEPT CHICAGO PURCHASING MANAGERS INDEX: 46.1 V 52E
**sub-indices:
- Prices Paid: 51.3 v 50.0 last
- New Orders: 46.3 v 52.5 last
- Employment: 38.8 v 38.7 last
- Inventories: 38.9 v 27.5 last
- Supplier Deliveries: 49.3 v 54.6 last
- Production: 47.2 v 52.9 last
- Order Backlogs: 36.7 v 45.8 last

Let's see.... besides the topline miss, we have prices paid up (bad), new orders down (bad), employment up 0.1% (marginally better to flat), inventories up (bad if you're not selling 'em!), supplier deliveries down (bad), production down (bad) and order backlogs collapsing (really bad.)

I know it probably gets old, but I told 'ya you were smoking 'dem "green shoots"!

(Still bullish are 'ya?)

Discussion below (registration required to post)

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User Info	Tumbleweeds! (Chicago PMI) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Randy123 Posts: 5767 Incept: 2008-09-24 Earth	That is an awful number. ---------- China is the Enemy. Wake Up. New Normal. Same As The Old Awful. 2009-09-30 09:58:58 Permalink
Pookie Posts: 260 Incept: 2009-06-18 Florida	You'd have to be an ostrich with your head in the sand to be bullish with those numbers. ---------- Once you admit that the individual is merely a means to serve the ends of the higher entity called society or the nation, most of those features of totalitarian regimes which horrify us follow of necessity. --F.A. Hayek 2009-09-30 09:59:37 Permalink
Blackswan Posts: 5562 Incept: 2007-11-06 Just outside of Philly	I don't know how you make this report sound bullish. Wouldn't order backlogs build into the holiday season in general? Just asking don't know all the corelations and relations to retail. ---------- Its checkmate. Everywhere its checkmate. Hugh Hendry 2009-09-30 10:03:01 Permalink
Dmm219 Posts: 320 Incept: 2009-08-14	The report is not bullish. I honestly don't know anyone bullish about the economy. I know plenty of people bullish about stocks. Stocks can, and will rise when there is so much free money in the system, and it has been proven that the gov won't let companies fail. If there's no risk and tons of money, of course stocks are bullish. This market doesn't care about the economy at all. It doesn't have to. Of course its all a big game of chicken and it will end catastrophically, but it makes sense to ride the markets while you can. 2009-09-30 10:10:04 Permalink
Bagbalm Posts: 4248 Incept: 2009-03-19 Just North of Detroit	(Turns on TV) - Great news folks! Everything is better! You caring government has saved your worthless butts again! Now you can splurge for Xmas fearlessly. In more serious news fugitive director Roman... 2009-09-30 10:13:28 Permalink
Mayorquimby Posts: 13907 Incept: 2008-09-18 The Archaic Past	Horrendous numbers. If you're not scared, you're not paying attention. ---------- They who wish to hurt you, work within the law. - Morrissey Gold is theft. 2009-09-30 10:15:27 Permalink
Trades50 Posts: 4214 Incept: 2007-10-30 Land of Tax and Spend	Quote: If there's no risk and tons of money, of course stocks are bullish They were boasting on one of the business channels that they still have 2/3 of the stimulus money left to help boost the economy. So far it seems like they didn't get a lot of bang for their buck. Their trying to counteract deflationary forces the financial system they created. The 25-30 years of credit expansion is now reversing. Their going to keep throwing money at the problem trying to reverse market forces. This is historical. ---------- When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty. - Thomas Jefferson 2009-09-30 10:20:36 Permalink
Doctorbob Posts: 812 Incept: 2009-06-03 Gusher of black gold	Oil fell $1.40/bbl from today's high. I suspect that all of that was to to the Chicago number -- a sign that the marketa are worried. After the petroleum inventories came in high, oil fell anonther 40˘. 2009-09-30 10:32:06 Permalink
Plocequ1 Posts: 526 Incept: 2009-08-23 Boston,Mass Banned	Don't worry kids , Uncle Ben just called the printing press. Expect some nice fresh Crisp dollars in your wallet. ---------- "Man looks into the Abyss, and there's nothin' staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character, and that's what keeps him out of the Abyss"... Lou Mannheim, Wall Street."Its a huge **** sandwich and were all gonna have to take a bite"... Lt. Lockhart , Full Metal Jacket. 2009-09-30 10:38:04 Permalink
Widgeon Posts: 13481 Incept: 2007-08-30 Region formerly known as the United States	We will now be returning to our regularly scheduled collapse. Then again, maybe we can push the S&P PE to 200 first. 2009-09-30 10:57:18 Permalink
Kidhorn Posts: 91 Incept: 2009-08-11 Rockville, MD	employment up 0.1% (marginally better to flat) I thought 50 meant it was flat. The low numbers being about the same indicates employment is falling at about the same rate as last month, not that it's staying the same. At least the economy didn't contract as much last quarter as initially indicated. Great news. We're not flowing into the sewer as fast as we thought we were. Last modified: 2009-09-30 10:59:25 by kidhorn 2009-09-30 10:58:36 Permalink
Jmiles Posts: 17 Incept: 2008-11-13	BEN- To the chopper.............. Obama- To Air Force One- Chicago gotta get da Olympics now... 2009-09-30 11:09:17 Permalink
Mayorquimby Posts: 13907 Incept: 2008-09-18 The Archaic Past	Yeah...it's sad/funny/pathetic to watch the prez et al all run around trying to act like it's business as usual in D.C. when the entire ship is listing. ---------- They who wish to hurt you, work within the law. - Morrissey Gold is theft. 2009-09-30 11:12:20 Permalink
Nathanael Posts: 4556 Incept: 2008-01-03 Canada	What's the difference between "inventory" and "supplier deliveries"? I mean, what does "supplier deliveries" represent? 2009-09-30 11:13:58 Permalink
Striker754 Posts: 671 Incept: 2009-07-09	equities to green by end of day 2009-09-30 11:15:16 Permalink
Fortune Posts: 1542 Incept: 2008-04-21 A deep dark place...scary	Watching these CB governors and all other politicians shouting green shoots out their arse, bending over each other pleading for mercy from the public a few months from now as they try to cover ass for being wrong (again) is going to be epic. ---------- It's a toss up. It is the Rule of Law that transforms assets into money: Martin Armstrong Math IS: Karl Denninger Last modified: 2009-09-30 11:34:59 by fortune 2009-09-30 11:33:45 Permalink
Froghat Posts: 213 Incept: 2009-01-28 Banned	You guys are just jealous that Bernake saved the world! Now apologize!!!!! 2009-09-30 11:34:37 Permalink
Wild_olive Posts: 20 Incept: 2009-07-11 last open air insane asylum	Nemesis wrote.. What's the difference between "inventory" and "supplier deliveries"? I mean, what does "supplier deliveries" represent? I assume supplier deliveries are the raw materials used to make the widgets that become inventory. Someone correct me if this is wrong. ---------- "Facts do not cease to exist because they are ignored." - Aldous Huxley "Most human beings have an almost infinite capacity for taking things for granted." 2009-09-30 11:46:15 Permalink
Jollycholly Posts: 32 Incept: 2009-09-08 Banned	The dip buyers seem a might impatient. 2009-09-30 12:35:57 Permalink
Eli Posts: 7168 Incept: 2007-09-10 Online	Order Backlogs: 36.7 v 45.8 last That is double plus ungood. Once people get through the backlog cash flow all of sudden becomes a huge problem, those with too much debt or lack of access to it start going TU. ---------- If you want a vision of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face - forever. George Orwell 2009-09-30 12:41:46 Permalink
Lucky1 Posts: 2019 Incept: 2009-08-05 Pittsburgh	Blackswan: Yep. Backlogs should have been building in that report; and peaking right around now in the next two weeks for manufacturers - otherwise, it's not on the shelf before Thanksgiving. I noticed this in our business (manufacturing) that things started to turn down right after Labor Day, when they should have still been 'picking up'. Manufacturers are rightfully hitting the brakes, anticipating getting burned in the upcoming holiday season. Not as hard and fast as last year, but awful nonetheless since we are starting from such a vastly lower level of business activity. Here is an excerpt of my post from KD's Ticker "OUTRAGE: TYING IT ALL TOGETHER" entered at 2009-09-19 19:48:41 "I work in a basic industry, and we had a mini-rebound for June July and August, but September has started to tail off again just over the last 10 days or so - we were actually still rolling through the Labor Day holiday. We started dropping off in August last year before things really went south, so perhaps we are the canary in the coal mine. The next downdraft from this low point will get nasty. Incidentally, as an fyi, ocean containers that we were paying $3,300 for last July are now $911.25... ~ 70% off." Nemesis: "Supplier Deliveries" to a manufacturer are 'raw materials' that the manufacturer is using to create new inventories for sale. A decrease in 'supplier deliveries' would indicate that less inventory is going to be produced for sale in the next report - sort of a leading indicator for future inventory production. ---------- "Crime is contagious. If the government becomes a law-breaker, it breeds contempt for law; it invites every man to become a law unto himself; it invites anarchy." -USSC Justice Louis D. Brandeis: Dissenting Opinion in "Olmstead v. United States" (1928) 2009-09-30 12:42:01 Permalink
Blunt Posts: 14 Incept: 2009-08-15	Quote: equities to green by end of day well that didn't take long....good call 2009-09-30 12:58:59 Permalink
Djsnola Posts: 197 Incept: 2009-03-16 New Orleans	Wow these folks dont care about any of the bad news do they. 2009-09-30 13:09:01 Permalink
Ksfq Posts: 1109 Incept: 2007-07-11 California	Actually, regarding stock market, this just means that Fed will continue QE and monetizing the debt. Which means that there will be a lot of free money for PDs and thus paper games will continue. It is true that some companies will go bankrupt, but stocks of these companies will be worth at least $1000 a share just week before bankruptcy. 2009-09-30 13:22:08 Permalink

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