When All You Have Is A Hammer (Economic Efficiency)
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-07-15 10:53
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
When All You Have Is A Hammer (Economic Efficiency)
 

everything looks like a nail:

“Once excess capacity appears, the economy gets trapped in a vicious cycle,” Lin said. “The financial sector in developed countries may require more rescues in the future and the financial crisis may erupt in some developing nations.”

Developing economies can avoid the fallout from the global recession by investing in projects with “returns high enough to generate higher growth,” Lin said, helping to boost government revenue and offset the costs of fiscal stimulus. “The main policy objective should be to create demand as quickly and efficiently as possible.”

And how did we get all that "excess capacity"?  Why we built it this way!

And now, having done so, the guys who have nothing to sell but more loans want us to..... borrow more money!

PIMCOs McCulley is saying the same (dangerous) thing:

July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Paul McCulley said the Federal Reserve should push inflation above its long-term target to coax consumers to spend money if the U.S. economy stays mired in recession.

That man ought to be locked up as an enemy of the nation's prosperity; this sort of nonsense is pure self-serving tripe, and I'm going to prove it with mathmatics.

Folks, we went from a personal deficit of $200 against roughly $8,600 in per-capita income (a 2.3% deficit) to over $4,000 against roughly $25,000 in per-capita income, or a 16% deficit.

We managed to do this through debt.  That is, we promised to pay in the future, $4,000 more than we made in 2005 on average, and that number went from a tiny percentage of our income (2.3%) in 1981 to a very significant percentage (16%) in 2005.

Folks, it should be obvious that this deficit cannot continue to grow forever.  Eventually you must spend less than you make and pay down that debt, or you will get into a situation where you are unable to make the payments and default.

We are in this mess economically because we built capacity we do not need, and the World Bank wants us to take on yet more un-serviceable debt in order to "bring up capacity utilization"?

Are they crazy?  No.  Just blind.

The ugly facts are that there can be no durable recovery in the economy until the excess capacity is removed, since there are no huge productivity boosters on the horizon, the only other way you can grow demand (that is, you must boost not only GDP-per-capita but more importantly per-capita income so that true demand is generated) is to reduce the debt load in the system.

Note that per-capita GDP compared to per-capita income has gone the wrong way since 1981.  That is, the "spread" (as a percentage) between per-capita GDP and per-capita income has increased, which is exactly what you would expect as debt service saps the funds in the economy available to go toward per-capita income!

In numbers, in 1981 per-capita GDP was $13,600 while per-capita income was $8,476, a "spread" of 60%.

In 2005 per-capita GDP was $42,200 while per-capita income was $25,036, a "spread" of 68%. 

Lower "spreads" denote a greater return of GDP into the hands of people - that is, a more efficient economy.  The wider the spread the more "parasitic drains" there are on GDP - that is, the greater the amount of GDP that winds up somewhere other than in the people's hands.

The ugly truth is despite the "personal computer revolution" and "robotics", all of which are vaunted "efficiency improvements", per-capita purchasing power as compared against GDP, that is, the amount of money available for consumers to spend in the economy (and to service debt) compared to gross domestic product, better stated as economic efficiency, has decreased by about 12%.

This is exactly what one would expect since much of the debt is in fact not "personal" - it is owed by corporations and governments that have "levered up", and they must pay interest too.  As a consequence larger and larger portions of GDP are diverted not to per-capita income where consumers can spend it, save it, pay debt with it or form capital with it, but rather are diverted to the non-productive use of paying interest and in doing so damages the economy.

"Stimulating demand" cannot be done on a true basis except by either:

  1. Dramatic productivity improvements to narrow the spread (that is, make possible dramatic wage increases paid for a given fixed GDP and money supply.  Note that doing this by "pumping money" raises BOTH - that is in fact inflation, and does nothing for the ratio as both numerator and denominator change.)
  2. Defaulting the excess debt so that the percentage of parasitic drag on the economy from debt service is reduced, thereby contracting the spread and improving economic efficiency.

Those are the only two ways to make it happen folks. 

Anything that drives the efficiency ratio the other way (that is, which drives the spread higher) in fact does economic damage.

The World Bank (and PIMCO) are wrong and promoting a self-serving agenda, and must be treated as all shameless self-promoters deserve.

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User Info When All You Have Is A Hammer (Economic Efficiency) in forum [Market-Ticker]
Ukyank
Posts: 906
Incept: 2008-10-09

Little village on a small island...austerity anyone?
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Can't we persuade the Chinese to make the bubble this time? Why does it always have to be the US?

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"The distinction between needs and wants will reveal itself like a sledgehammer." James Quinn, Jan 5, 2009
Genesis
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Won't work.

The ENTIRE SYSTEM has too much debt in it.

That's the point - the spread between GDP and Personal Income is now feeding on itself.

That WILL stop - we are choosing between stopping it and having the entire thing detonate in our face.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Ukyank
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Little village on a small island...austerity anyone?
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I know that what you've shown is REAL debt, but isn't there a lot of derivative/default liability (if this is the right term) attached to this, just waiting to be triggered?

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"The distinction between needs and wants will reveal itself like a sledgehammer." James Quinn, Jan 5, 2009
Dji
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Ponzi world 3rd rock from the sun
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we are choosing between stopping it and having the entire thing detonate in our face.

Gen what is your definition of we?
Gov, and the likes of Pimpco? or We the People?

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Genesis
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Dji: Sigh...

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Doctorbob
Posts: 812
Incept: 2009-06-03

Gusher of black gold
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That graph is devastating. Financial institutions are the problem. Instead of a bailout, we should outlaw them.

Reason: bad html
Ukyank
Posts: 906
Incept: 2008-10-09

Little village on a small island...austerity anyone?
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You know, this will detonate. I think that the term 'extend and pretend' for the current phase of the economy is appropriate.

Banks and other lenders are all extending their terms and pretending that things will get better - that somehow they are going to get paid back. They won't.

We're coming to the end of this phase. The next one will be the detonation phase, because no one is willing to face the truth (present company excepted, of course).

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"The distinction between needs and wants will reveal itself like a sledgehammer." James Quinn, Jan 5, 2009

Ptoemmes
Posts: 143
Incept: 2009-04-13

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Maybe the next Chinese bubble is already there and about to pop. Maybe the (next) detonation will be in China. If so all that Intel upside in Asia (China) would be at risk among other things.

Curious as to others take: http://www.zerohedge.com/article/thought....

Pete
End_the_bubbles
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Re: Paul McCulley

That man ought to be locked up as an enemy of the nation's prosperity; this sort of nonsense is pure self-serving tripe, and I'm going to prove it with mathmatics.


AMEN! I've long despised this despicable and dangerous man. He makes me as mad as Greenspan when I hear either of the pieces of garbage speak their complete and utter nonsense.

WHY DO THESE SAME PEOPLE STILL HAVE JOBS? Hasn't this disaster sufficiently discredited these bastards???? smiley

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In the long run even the most despotic governments with all their brutality and cruelty are no match for ideas. Eventually the ideology that has won the support of the majority will prevail and cut the ground from under the tyrant's feet and rise in rebellion to overthrow their masters.
Ukyank
Posts: 906
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Little village on a small island...austerity anyone?
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Ptoemmes - I think the Chinese leaders are scared sh*tless...they don't know what to do...1 billion people, single child families, with the highest expectations in history...10 million University graduates looking for work...10 million the next year and the year after that...

What's the Chinese for KA-BOOM?

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"The distinction between needs and wants will reveal itself like a sledgehammer." James Quinn, Jan 5, 2009
Ksfq
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> The ENTIRE SYSTEM has too much debt in it.

This is completely true. However, it is quite possible that this bubble is going to be re-inflated to the unbelievable proportions on global scale.
How? First, scare people that inflation will eat everything. Second, convince businesses that government will bailout everybody. So who ever has job will get even more debt and every single business still operating will get into debt which can they service only if martians come to rescue us.
Everything with pretense to "bring up capacity utilization".

Mrobe10586
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Gen,

Am I correct in assuming that "push inflation" as used by McCulley means get Americans to borrow more money and spend it, thus alleviating the overcapacity problem?

Taken to its logical extreme, if a person were encouraged to borrow money ad infinitum without a corresponding increase in income, eventually every dollar in income would be owed in interest. Since interest buys nothing, the person would presumably be expected to continue to work yet be unable to buy ANYTHING.

It would seem that at that point, any capacity would be overcapacity.

Swrichmond
Posts: 327
Incept: 2009-02-12
A True American Patriot!
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"July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Pacific Investment Management Co.’s Paul McCulley said the Federal Reserve should push inflation above its long-term target to coax consumers to spend money if the U.S. economy stays mired in recession."

Think about this: Why would someone at PIMCO, the world's largest private bond holder, argue for inflation?

Is Bill Gross net short Treasuries?

Have they done a calc and found that the damage from defaults would be greater than the damage from inflation / rate increases? Think what would happen to PIMCO's holdings should the Ten-year go from 3.5% to say 12%. Now ask yourself why PIMCO is arguing for inflation. View the abyss. I've been saying for the past two years that they will choose inflation, because the alternative is unthinkable. They WILL lose control of it and it will become a hyperinflationary currency crisis event. This massive economic rear-guard delaying action that the Fed has been engaged in is nothing more than buying time to form a consensus about currency debasement among the central banks.
Genesis
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Quote:
[Am I correct in assuming that "push inflation" as used by McCulley means get Americans to borrow more money and spend it, thus alleviating the overcapacity problem?

Taken to its logical extreme, if a person were encouraged to borrow money ad infinitum without a corresponding increase in income, eventually every dollar in income would be owed in interest. Since interest buys nothing, the person would presumably be expected to continue to work yet be unable to buy ANYTHING.

Yep Mrobe. Exactly.

That's why we hit the wall - we got to the point where we couldn't sustain consumption and GDP with the available cashflow, and when lenders figured it out they shut off the money tap.

Pimco wants the tap turned back on, but we can't make the debt service with the load we have now. His 'idea' is nothing other than a sop to rescue them from a bad trading position - they either didn't look at the math first or did and thought they could outmaneuver it, and are staring at an oncoming headlight - its a train.

Sw: Forget it. Such a move bankrupts ALL the banks, including the prudent ones, and every time I've brought that up (and there's plenty of history behind it) nobody has been able to answer that. Weimar Germany did this FROM THE GOVERNMENT and as soon as they started ALL the banks shut off ALL lending INSTANTLY. With no "independent" central bank they were able to make it happen. WE CAN'T BECAUSE CONGRESS DOESN'T HAVE CONTROL OF THE PRINTING PRESS. This fantasy crap goes exactly nowhere and it needs to get the hell out of my Ticker threads; I'm NOT going to keep wasting time on it.


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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Weaseldog
Posts: 282
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Quote:
WHY DO THESE SAME PEOPLE STILL HAVE JOBS?


Common wisdom in economics circles is that when a bull busts up your china shop, the government should give the bull a giant bailout, and put it in charge of putting your china shop back in order.

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"You can know the name of a bird in all the languages of the world, but when you're finished, you'll know absolutely nothing whatever about the bird... So let's look at the bird and see what it's doing -- that's what counts." - Richard Feynman
Curbyourrisk
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Farmingdale, NY
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GEN: when i saw this stroy on the wires I almost puked and sent off a note to a few friends with the link to the story. I am soo glad you wrote the ticker. I assume they are reading it now, and better understanding things though your more controlled explanation than me screaming my head off in an e-mail.


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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Themightymonarch
Posts: 67
Incept: 2009-06-24

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Quote:
Sw: Forget it. Such a move bankrupts ALL the banks, including the prudent ones, and every time I've brought that up (and there's plenty of history behind it) nobody has been able to answer that


There's a much simpler way to put this:

A hyperinflationary event hurts the banks, as they are lenders. Therefore, they will do everything in their power to prevent that from happening.

Reza30
Posts: 289
Incept: 2009-02-15

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When all you have is 0 interest rates (Bernanke flushing the prey to Wall Street)

Karl, your charts and all your tickers over the past few days make total sense, but none of it really matters at this point to the sheeple.

There is no other money to be made except by selling to the greater fool; there is no other way to create wealth except by illusory stock market gains.

In fact, if you found all the gold in the world; if you extracted every drop of oil and every type of precious metal, and if you chopped down all the trees and sold them, you would still not have enough money to equal all the massive debt in this world. Even our planet cannot support our debt.

We really can't create "real money" by growing an economy as you have said many times, so we need to create fake money. Bernanke knows this quite well, and he and the Fed will make it impossible for the people to find any other source of wealth other than the winnings in the stock market casino.

Themightymonarch
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Incept: 2009-06-24

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Quote:
In fact, if you found all the gold in the world; if you extracted every drop of oil and every type of precious metal, and if you chopped down all the trees and sold them, you would still not have enough money to equal all the massive debt in this world.


Well the resources were there, products were sold, so really all this amounts to is the biggest swindle in the history of mankind. We buy cheap crap from China, the federal government sells them cheap Treasuries in order to deficit spend, and neither party has the ability to pay them back.

Reminds me of what a checker at the local Safeway told me when I attempted to buy a gift card on my Visa. She said they're only allowing cash to be used as tender for them since people were maxing out their credit cards to buy gift cards then either defaulting or reporting the card stolen.

Our country just bought a $12 trillion gift card on our national Visa card and now we're going to default.

Swrichmond
Posts: 327
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I know you don't like anyone to disagree with you.

"Sw: Forget it. Such a move bankrupts ALL the banks, including the prudent ones, and every time I've brought that up (and there's plenty of history behind it) nobody has been able to answer that."

OK, here's my answer: the big banks control the Congress and they couldn't possibly care less about the little ones, in fact they'd like to see their "not too big to fail" competitors die. Too big to fail (owners of Congress) are kept in place and in charge regardless of what happens anywhere else, using force of law if necessary (as we are seeing, perhaps to be followed with martial law?), using accounting gimmicks if necessary (as we are seeing), putting the taxpayer on the hook for keeping them in place if necessary (as we are seeing). The only thing we don't know is what are they going to do next, since absolutely anything is possible. Given what we have already seen, can anyone make a convincing case that the big banks will ever fail? EVER?

As you have correctly and clearly noted, numerous times, the bezzle is out in the open now, and no one is doing anything about it. You have also clearly and correctly stated that the banks are all BK should any reality ever enter their accounting; THE BANKS ARE ALREADY BANKRUPT, YET THEY CONTINUE TO EXIST. Our "elected representatives" are completely corrupt; we are living in an organized crime syndicate, and we are the marks. It is a mistake to underestimate the extent to which the lying, cheating and stealing will continue.


"Weimar Germany did this FROM THE GOVERNMENT and as soon as they started ALL the banks shut off ALL lending INSTANTLY. With no "independent" central bank they were able to make it happen. WE CAN'T BECAUSE CONGRESS DOESN'T HAVE CONTROL OF THE PRINTING PRESS."

What makes you think Congress wouldn't go along with it? They've already passed stimulus 1 and 2, they are talking about 3; they've already bilked the taxpayers for TARP against 100:1 opposition. They're now actively engaged in spending more money we don't have on national health care and mortgage forgiveness. Congress is complicit; the deficit went from $500 Billion to $1.8 Trillion, don't you think they know where the money is coming from? The big bankers, who own the Congress, will oblige them in their efforts to pacify the natives. The big bankers are also set to profit handsomely from cap and trade, which Congress will oblige them with. Quid Pro Quo. Too big to fail means exactly that. The big banks are here to stay. Your assertion that all banks would fail doesn't hold water in light of events.


"This fantasy crap goes exactly nowhere and it needs to get the hell out of my Ticker threads; I'm NOT going to keep wasting time on it."

It is very difficult, nay impossible, to engage anyone online in a spirited discussion that gets to the very heart of this debate.

That is unfortunate.
Kuhio
Posts: 208
Incept: 2008-12-31

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Karl, do you believe our current situation is a political crisis exacerbated by a financial crisis, or a financial crisis exacerbated by a political crisis?

I am a proponent of the former; that is, the financial crisis has simply revealed the true extent and depth of political corruption. When I first started posting on your forum, you appeared to favor the latter (ie the financial crisis could be resolved via political will), yet recently you seem to have embraced the former.

If this is indeed the case, then I would suggest the most effective means of resolving the political crisis, and effect real change/reform in both the financial and political arenas, would be to maximize the financial lever points in order to finally bring the system to its knees.

You're already advocating "starving the beast", but that's merely the revenue side. What about the demand side? The administration's plans are completely dependent on the current taxpaying base remaining taxpayers, and not turning into tax consumers. That is, they need a healthy taxpayer crop that can be continually "harvested".

But what if we were to promote all levels of government to further enact more foolish subsidies, bailouts and tax/transfer payments, and to encourage them to finance them all with bonds/IOUs, in order to push (gov't) consumption levels past the tipping point? (Actually, they already are, so this would just give it extra impetus.)

This whole long song & dance is actually nearing a break point. Either the respective states/local governments/agencies are going to starting creating their own pseudo-currencies (eg Calif IOUs) or they are going to force the FedGov to backstop their financing activities. Either way pushes every level of gov't over the edge of too much debt, so that rather than responsibly cutting back on expenses, it will merely precipitate a final blow out event.

I'd really like to hear your comments/opinions regarding this matter.

Genesis
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SW: You wrote an entire ****ing screed and NEVER ONE ADDRESSED MY POINT.

My point is VERY ****ING SIMPLE:

If you hyperinflate the currency then the BANKS, who loaned out $100,000 that bought a HOUSE, get back $100,000 that buys a LOAF OF BREAD (that is, NOTHING.)

This WILL NOT HAPPEN so long as the BANKS are in control of the printing press, AND THEY ARE.

It happened in Weimar because THE BANKS WERE NOT IN CHARGE OF THE PRINTING PRESS. The government did it, and as soon as they did the banks shut off ALL lending, forcing the spiral to run to destruction immediately.

EVERYONE who argues for The Fed to "hyperinflate" is arguing for THE VERY CONGLOMERATION OF BANKS TO WHICH THE DEBT IS OWED taking an action, ON PURPOSE, that will result in the DESTRUCTION OF THE VALUE OF THE MONEY THEY LOANED OUT.

That is illogical AND unnecessary. If we DO NOT hyperinflate they get the COLLATERAL from those who cannot pay instead of WORTHLESS dollars.

TELL ME WHY ANY BANK WOULD INTENTIONALLY DESTROY THE VALUE OF ALL THE MONEY THEY LOANED OUT TO PEOPLE AND I WILL CONCEDE THEY WOULD CONSPIRE TO DO SUCH A THING.

Until you or anyone else does so I consider such arguments to be complete HORSE**** and any further attempt to run what is a totally-illogical tinfoil piece of trash will earn a permanent ban from the TICKER area.

I have NEVER had a problem with a logical and reasoned argument. I have a MAJOR problem with an argument that amounts to a claim that an institution is going to INTENTIONALLY DESTROY ITSELF.

Not on accident - ON PURPOSE!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Parcontre
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The banks aren't lending out their own money, they're lending out their depositors money, or money they've borrowed from the Fed, the Treasury, etc.

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Wherever fate my vessel steers, that image never disappears.
In times of joy and times of tears, her song still echoes in my ears.
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3595
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Farmingdale, NY
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KARL: thank you for addressing all the hyperinflationary bull****...for the umpteenth thousandth time. Damn you must be sick of that crap by now.

PEOPLE: before you come here and annoy him, please read the tickers. your answers are already there. laid out and explained.


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Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
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