Buck350 raises a good point. Will Europe be our canary in the coalmine?

What about larger U.S. cities? I figure the riots will start in LA , CHI and DC before they start in the smaller cities.

I've got a bugout plan, but man, it's going to be tough to pack everything in the trunk of my Accord.

I'd leave my ******* cat behind, but he's what I plan to eat when the MREs run out.

Quote:

The single best thing people can do to avert a food crisis is to immediately cut your consumption of animal based protein.

Immediately?!?!? Why the hell would I change what I eat preemptively?

Re: Iceland.

Iceland had the IMF to get loans from. There will be no IMF bailout of the U.S.

You need to have food stashed. Here's the way I explained my Y2K preps to people (pre-Y2K):
"I don't know for sure if it's real or not. The only thing I know for absolute certain is this: if my kids say to me 'daddy I'm hungry', the wrong answer is 'sorry kid, there's no food and the stores are all closed'."

Great Ticker,

Where does the military fit into all this?

I think the New Orleans experience is a great example of what may lie ahead if this gets really bad. Many of the police literally just walked away.

I understand Gen's point about keeping assets liquid, but keeping money in your local bank assumes the banks will continue to give you access to those funds. I would expect that in the event TSHTF ATM's and all electronic transfers would be shut down, and banks would ration withdrawls. Am I just being to cynical?

cash in hand - check!

no revolving credit check

self defense....more than I can shoot (plus a lot of ammo)

no stocks

8 months of food stored plus 30,000 gallon water filter

mentally prepared and prep'd the family 6 months ago

As for animal protein....I will not cut the cheese.

I live in Texas. I will not run. I will not hide. Come and take it.

Quote:

Where does the military fit into all this?

It either gets used to fight those who think we owe them on debt that is actually unsecured ala Fannie and Freddie debt, it gets its budget cut by half, or both.

Thanks for sticking to your guns, Gen, in spite of the three month bullgasm. Facts are stubborn things, and you, pretty much all by yourself, stayed the course , not because you wanted to, but because as a rational thinker, you had to, and you laid it all out for us in copious detail, day after day, for two years plus. Only a blind man could miss the boat here.

I hope you're wrong, but unless 1+1=3 those who ignore your advice will surely experience gnashing of teeth to a fine powder.

One of AB's more bizarre posts. And that's saying a lot.

I loved this ticker, been tuning my life to that list since 2002. We're covered on every angle except for where to hide the money, which is too much to bury in the backyard LOL.


What happens to US debt like FDLXX and savings bonds if this happens? A ton of us here are in short term treasury funds as a place to hide our IRAs. And I've got savings bonds earning 8% that my grandmother gave me that don't hit maturity for a few more years.

I guess rolling the IRA out of Fidelity to a series of solid community banks is a possibility....

And I, like Buck, also hope that you're bat**** crazy. But I don't think you are, you've been right about everything else so far. Scary, but expected in a depressing sort of way.

LQ, who bought extra sheets when LNT went under, in case of refugee houseguests.

Quote:

I wish I was old enough to follow the markets during some of the historical recession periods, because I have nothing to compare my current bearishness to. I mean, how many times through this century would KD and the rest of us have predicted just what we are predicting today? ...
That said, I do agree that this time may be "different". Certainly, the mathematics KD explains seem sound. Maybe we need to have a depression every 60-70 years or so to bring balance back....

I have been consciously aware of economic upturns and downturns to some degree of detail since about 1965. I can unequivocally state this time certainly appears WAY different than any of the many preceding economic downturns. I simply cannot compare the simultaneous confluences of so many destructive factors driving any other 'recession' in the past as this one.

Not just economic factors, but basic and substantial changes to the political and regulatory climate that leave this downturn with the sense of unmitigated lack of direction or control over events in a way i've never before witnessed.

So many underpinnings of the Republic have been blow to bits, the rouge interpretation of the Constitution to fit the occasion, contract law simply ignored where 'cornering the cash' makes it convenient to do so, and much much more. It's as if, this time around, there are just too many leaks in the dam to keep forever successfully plugged. The enormity of the current constellation of troubles seems to leave virtually any ONE of them capable of the final kick that finishes of the economy. So many more equally powerful ones ready to blow it all up should the others fail to do so.

There is a certain 'attrition' quality to it. A constant grinding erosion that sooner or later overwhelms every effort to forestall the inevitable. I think that's the key part of this time around that is so different than before. In past downturns, it was a general sense, and correctly so, things would re-balance and while some sectors would hurt badly and even cease to exist, overall things were expected and DID find a reasonable equilibrium and outcome.

This time, a real and uncomfortable change in our entire financial, political structure and societal expectation seems to wholly on the table, where before I never considered that much of a sea-shift in things a practical anticipation.

A wise friend once told me 'Every Generation Ultimately Has It's Own Cross To Bear'. Indeed, I believe this (current) one will not escape the essence of that statement despite it's reliance on it's Crackberry's, the Internet and nano-second attention spans to weave it's web of effortless self entitlement.

Videopro, add to that various, er, "delicate" world situations...

I've felt for a while that where we are in the tunnel is at the confluence of many different tracks, and there's lights coming at us from every which way.

In lieu of learning about firearms on the internet, take your state's hunter safety course - usually run by dedicated and very helpful volunteers that will give you lots of one on one time - tell you about local ranges, etc.

Plus, go out kill something and eat it - that is a BIG learning curve that might come in handy.

As we were terrorized into the TARP, we shall be terrorized into higher taxes and a ****tier quality of life.

I frankly don't see a meltdown happening, as people are SO tractable, .gov can rob with impunity to keep the lights on... for a while.

As for the markets, well, CAPITAL CONTROLS will sort those out!

Hellooooo tricky dick!

I'm mostly all set - but my fear of living without Internets.....maybe we can start a 12-step program. If I gotta go cold turkey....I'll never make it. Just thinking about it gives me hives.

I know, Steph, that's gonna be my biggie hurdle - hope it doesn't come to that.

I was gonna reply to Phirang's post that if being terrorized meant we could keep our internets, it was a pretty fair trade to me ;)

KD- Thank you....You're my man.

P.S. If you can play the Fife.....I can play the drum.

Thanks for everything.

Venezuela is about 10k times worse off, and basic services there still work (sorta).

THere will be no mad-max. There will be the full IMF monty:

1) much higher taxes, especially on the "rich", defined as a competent professional couple who didn't inherit enough money to live off of interest.
2) a weaker currency: it's another tax, fyi
3) entitlement retrenchment for the elderly, especially if they have ANY sort of terminal illness.

It is interesting to look at the opinions of various experts in different fields - technical analysis, trends, historians, futurists, etc.

I have read the opinions of many and the scary thing is that they ALL arrive at the SAME place: Armageddon

For example: Elliott Wave -- We are in a confirmed Grand Super Cycle Wave IV. The present position can be resolved in three different ways: 1) Catastrophic Wave C Down Crash with a timing of late Summer to early Fall 2) Triangle which means the lows have been seen, but we will grind sideways in a horrific Bear Market for 6+ years 3) A slow spiral to new lows and many years of Bear Market. No matter how you cut it, this Grand Super Cycle will be brutal, as The Great Depression was only a Super Cycle Wave IV.

Oh! One of those "experts" is not CNBS!

Added: The reason why this time it "feels so different", as stated by even those who survived The Great Depression, other Bear Markets, etc. is because NO ONE alive on the planet has experienced a Grand Super Cycle Wave IV - No One!

I won't make it either, pika.

2TL

Another fine place to learn about firearms and how to shoot is a Civilian Marksmanship Program shooting clinic. Many shooting and conservation clubs offer these on a regular basis and unlike regular shooting matches, instruction is given, and beginners are not scorned. My club offers these most months, and does a hunter safety class on a quarterly basis. We figure that we have trained about a battalion of novice shooters so far, and many of them have gone on to distinguish themselves at Camp Perry.

Swrichmond,

Bingo ! on your responsiblity

glennb6

Maybe there's a medication?

Gen,

Can you write up a ticker about the basics of reading a bank's balance sheet?

I have the balance sheet of one of the community banks in my area but I wasn't sure what to look for.

This bank has about $13 million in commercial and industrial loans out of about $900 million in total assets. Is commercial and industrial the same as commercial real estate? I also see about $5 million in loans they call "off-balance commercial real estate loans."

What amounts or ratios should I concentrate on?

C&I isn't RE: it's for general business purposes.

Be under the limit, and you're "fine", whatever that means nowadays.

Personally, I'm not sweating armageddon, but I also have a pretty fat hedge on my book, too!