More Sausage Hiding: Banks
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-06-04 11:20
by Karl Denninger
in Banking System
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More Sausage Hiding: Banks
 

Now we see real reporting instead of the puff piece on Bloomberg yesterday:

In a move that confirmed the suspicions of many analysts, the agency called off plans to start a $1 billion pilot program this month that was intended to help banks clean up their balance sheets and eventually sell off hundreds of billions of dollars worth of troubled mortgages and other loans.

Many banks have refused to sell their loans, in part because doing so would force them to mark down the value of those loans and book big losses. Even though the government was prepared to prop up prices by offering cheap financing to investors, the prices that banks were demanding have remained far higher than the prices that investors were willing to pay.

Translation:

The banks are still carrying these "assets" at well-above their actual market value.  This means their balance sheets are showing them to be healthier than they really are.

The Government, which claimed it was going to "drain the swamp" and get the market moving again, tried everything short of the barrel of an M-16 in the mouth of people like Blankfein and Pandit, but couldn't get them to sell.

But rather than force the recognition of market prices on the balance sheets, which would force these banks to either sell or be FDIC'd (incidentally, the only correct pair of options the banks should have) the government instead is allowing the banks to continue to lie about the market value of these "assets" and carry them above what the market will pay - that is, they are allowing the continuing intentional distortion of so-called "book value", reserve ratios and soundness.

Of course this isn't how the government banking cartel (the same so-called "regulators" that allowed and even encouraged book-cooking when it came to reserves and deposits) sees it:

F.D.I.C. officials portrayed the change as a sign that banks were returning to health on their own.

Baloney.  If the banks were returning to health on their own they wouldn't care if the market price was recognized on their balance sheets.

The FDIC is lying.

But some analysts said the banks’ reluctance to clean up their balance sheets meant they were merely postponing their day of reckoning. Indeed, some analysts said government policies had made it easier for banks to gloss over their bad loans.

"Gloss over" is another fancy word for fraudulent accounting practices, all made "legitimate" by our government.

No one knows exactly how many losses are buried in the troubled mortgages on banks’ books, but some analysts estimate that the unrecognized losses total more than $1 trillion. Under accounting rules, banks do not have to write down the value of most mortgages unless they sell them or they fall delinquent.

And, as Wells Fargo did last year, they can change the rules on when something is "delinquent"!  That is, it can be 30 days behind today, 60 tomorrow, and three years next week.  That's all ok, according to our so-called "regulators."

The Federal Reserve also is pumping hundreds of billions of dollars into mortgage-backed securities, and into other kinds of consumer and business lending. Starting next month, the Fed plans to offer cheap financing for investors who want to buy “legacy” securities backed by mortgages on commercial real estate.

Of course this simply means that the Federal Reserve (that is, you) will eat the loss. 

Heh, its only your (tax) money, right?

No banker left behind, no fraud to be punished (ever) indeed.

PS: The deception cannot continue beyond where the cash flow ceases.  In the end you can't pay your electric bill with phony capitalized interest that you will NEVER collect!  That day, unfortunately, will likely coincide with the collapse of the FDIC, at which point every nickel you have in any bank anywhere will be GONE, courtesy of our government continuing to enable, allow and even participate in raw fraud.  Its been going on now for more than two years folks, and the cops have all been bribed!

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Monkeybutt
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sounds great, we can take advantage of the fraud as well. So, if we all stopped paying our mortgages, the banks would push out the delinquent date many years into the future for all of us so as to avoid losses.
Pcaldallas
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KD, at this point in the game how long do you think we have before the final implosion?

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Armedmichigander
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Quote:

The deception cannot continue beyond where the cash flow ceases.

But conversely, it can continue all the way up to the moment the cash flow does cease. Anyone have an idea how long that would be?

Sondog
Posts: 75
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Karl, I'm with Pcaldallas and Armedmichigander. We want your take on what event, at what time, would reveal the banks to be the Ponzi they undoubtedly are.

You don't seem to like making guesses (understandably) but we won't hold you to it. Just throw out your gut feeling.

Genesis
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When the cash flow prevents paying the electric bill.

The problem is that this may coincide with when the Treasury can't sell bonds.

If so, money is the least of your problems. You will need guns and ammo in that circumstance.

The gamble being made here is literally with the stability of the nation.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Wearedoomed
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Armedmichigander wrote..
But conversely, it can continue all the way up to the moment the cash flow does cease. Anyone have an idea how long that would be?
That's something that Karl has brought up in the past. Namely, no one (except the banks themselves, and the gov, and Government Sachs probably) has any ****ing clue what the true balance sheet numbers are. Since the banks are marking to fantasy, the book values of their assets - MBS, etc. - are obviously inflated, but there's no way to tell how inflated they really are. In any event, even if those were closer to the truth, all trust that people have in banks' balance sheet numbers has been pretty well destroyed. Without accurate and correct numbers, you just can't tell when the banks' cash flow will dry up.

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Jpg
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Genesis wrote..
And, as Wells Fargo did last year, they can change the rules on when something is "delinquent"! That is, it can be 30 days behind today, 60 tomorrow, and three years next week.
There was a time I was under the impression that the definition of "delinquent" was a matter of (using your term) "black-letter law", and that once a loan got to that point (90 days, 120 days, or whatever it was) they were required to designate it as "non-performing" and take it out of the "asset" category.

Did that requirement in fact never exist, or has it been formally repealed, or is it just no longer enforced?
Centurion
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Fromt the article:
Quote:
Its been going on now for more than two years folks, and the cops have all been bribed!


So KD, do you have any ideas/solutions that can be posted on a public board?

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- No, I don't know everything .... I'm just REALLY good with Google.
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R2judge
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Considering the continuing fiancial fraud, aided and abetted by the Central Bank and the government, why is Bernie Madoff sitting in prison?
Genesis
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Jpg: It was supposed to be. Look at my screaming about Wells pulling that **** last year.

It was outrageous.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Themortgagedude
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I posted over in Gold that I thought with the secondary offerings that we were probably at all time highs on WFC for market cap. Does anybody know how to track market cap? There is no freaking way that WFC should be trading anywhere near where it was in market cap before this financial crisis.

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Asimov
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Everybody needs to keep in mind that even under mark to market, these ****ers had damn near everything marked at or near 100%. Now, with mark to fantasy, they are probably in the 120-150% range -- AT LEAST.

And you wonder why they don't want to sell for 30%?

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Kuhio
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The first country that clears its banking problems and provides sufficient trading liquidity in both breadth & depth of its currency, public & private debt, and marketable equities will run the table.

The $USD is merely one of many bad currencies, one that is temporarily benefiting from the fact that no real challenger has yet emerged. This cannot continue forever - at some point, an alternative will emerge.

When that occurs and interest rates climb, say goodbye to the 10s (100s?) of $trillions of leveraged asset prices.

Kuhio
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Quote:
@Gen - The problem is that this may coincide with when the Treasury can't sell bonds.


Karl, I've been reading that the primary B/Ds are becoming increasingly anxious due the risks associated with both the size of the upcoming issues and mounting buyer reluctance by SWFs and CBs.

To what extent is the Fed making up the difference? It appears to me that the Treasury is already facing selling difficulties in advance of true cash flow problems at the banks.

Of course, the timing differences aren't that great. More QE just means the economy tanks, which leads to more job losses and foreclosures within 3-6 more mos, so maybe they are somewhat correlated.
Lucky
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"... the cops have all been bribed!"

Yes, they are collecting their entitlement.

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Hihoherewego
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Quote:
More Sausage Hiding: Banks



"It only hurts when you put it in."

.................................

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Throxxofvron
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This will continue until absolutely everything is consumed: all currency, credits, warrants, equities, bonds, assets, commodities, funds, rights, and all positions of legal and regulatory authority; -ALL conceivable value is being utterly absorbed and expropriated.

"Take Everything & Leave Nothing Behind!" -Johnny Depp as Pirate Captain Jack Sparrow

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DIONYSUS: " Thou hast no knowledge of the life thou art leading; thy very existence is now a mystery to thee. " -from 'The Bacchantes' By Euripides “During times of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act.” -George Orwell
Mortgageguymn
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If the 19 TBTF (and others) do fail and the FDIC goes bust, I'm counting on Congress authorizing $1-2 trillion (or whatever it takes) to be printed so they (FDIC) can give me my damned money - even if a loaf of bread will cost $30. Do you think I'm wrong in that assumption? The first gang of people armed with pitchforks & guns would be depositors in failed banks. The next gang of pitfork-wielders would be people hosed by printing $2 trillion to fund the FDIC. Wouldn't congress fear the first group first and the second group second?
Bluebird
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From the ticker "That day, unfortunately, will likely coincide with the collapse of the FDIC, at which point every nickel you have in any bank anywhere will be GONE"

Do you see this also happening with the NCUA for the credit unions?

If both, then how would we be able to redeem short term Treasury Bills linked to a bank/credit union?
Bluebird
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Mortgageguymn @ 15:23 - That's what my spouse thinks that the government will have to print enough money to pay us all of our deposits. Otherwise, we citizens will be marching in DC with guns, pitchforks, and ropes.

If that's the case, maybe those Treasury Bills should be redeemed back to the credit union now?
Ghostcrab
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"That day, unfortunately, will likely coincide with the collapse of the FDIC, at which point every nickel you have in any bank anywhere will be GONE"

Which is why nobody in their right mind should have their money in a bank right now, with the exception of month to month expenses for e transactions. Not only is it the smart thing to be all cash you can put your physical hands on, but it is the best move in this presumed deflationary spiral. What's more I have no clue why people are supporting the institutions that are lobbying the government to fleece them? Why are we paying taxes to a government that tramples on us? It makes no sense.

I've taken everything I possibly can out of the system, and my next act will be to withhold taxes. I'll claim a zillion exemptions, and I'll pay my taxes in April. If this keeps up for the long haul, I will cease paying my taxes, period. These are in addition to any other civil disobedience I am pondering.

We are responsible for letting this government and these bankers become what they have become, and we are responsible for undoing the situation to return constitutionality. I was part of the problem, even though I played by the rules. I will not make that mistake again. No more Republicans. No more Democrats. No more fraud and lies. I will not only speak my mind and do the right thing, I will vote my dollars, and I will excercise my inalienable rights.

“Under a government which imprisons unjustly, the true place for a just man is also a prison." - Henry David Thoreau

"If a thousand men were not to pay their tax bills this year, that would not be a violent and bloody measure, as it would be to pay them, and enable the State to commit violence and shed innocent blood. This is, in fact, the definition of a peaceable revolution, if any such is possible." - Henry David Thoreau

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"History records that the money changers have used every form of abuse, intrigue, deceit, and violent means possible to maintain their control over governments by controlling the money and its issuance." - James Madison

Jstanley01
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Playing "hide the sausage" is exactly right. In and out the taxpayer's empty eye sockets.

We should have used the bailout money to capitalize new banks when we had the chance, like KD said. And let the slaughterhouse deal with this herd of pigmen.

Oh well. Too late now.

Every morning I wake up with the thought, "Gee. I don't think I have enough ammo yet."

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Phantomace
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Jstanley:
Is there such a thing as "enough" ammo?

;-)

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Jstanley01
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Phantomace: No. Then again, you knew that already.

Yeah, buy it by the wooden crate and they make a good foundation for the mattress and box springs. Stack them right, and they make a spiffy entertainment center. Put on glass top and you've got a dining room table. An old solid-core door, and there's your workbench.

Good 'ol American ingenuity at work...

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
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