Making Sure "It" Never Happens Again
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-05-18 08:18
by Karl Denninger
in Regulatory
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Making Sure "It" Never Happens Again
 

Executive Summary

The banking crisis, and our economic mess, was caused through willful and negligent failures in the regulatory apparatus governing our banking system.

Prudent regulation not only would have prevented the damage that our economy has suffered, it would have largely prevented the bubbles that lead to busts. We will examine in this paper how we got here, who was responsible, how we can keep it from happening again and why we must as a nation come to grips with prudent regulatory requirements for banking – requirements that have existed since the beginning of fractional reserve lending, as practiced in all advanced economies.

The key to understanding what happened, and how we can prevent it in the future, lies in one simple principle: Banks and other financial institutions that utilize fractional reserve principles must not be allowed to commit accounting fraud or become insolvent.

A financial institution that has more outstanding in unsecured loans than it has in excess capital is in fact insolvent and is thus unable to repay its depositors should they all want their money back. Preventing that from happening insures that the FDIC will never take a loss and thus neither will the taxpayers. 

Such regulation also prevents systemic risk; while it will not prevent banks from going out of business, business failure is in fact the correct resolution for excessive risk-taking and imprudent management.

This goal can be achieved with relative simplicity. 100 years ago there was no Internet and books were kept in a physical ledger, making summing the books and computing valuations on a daily basis difficult or impossible.

This is no longer true; we are now able to provide actual prudent supervision of financial institutions in such a fashion that is inherently counter-cyclical, prevents the “boom and bust” mentality from damaging anyone other than the institution involved, and provides a level of safety and soundness to our banking system that has been sorely lacking over the previous years.

These changes in our regulatory posture can, and indeed must, be made if we are to have a stable economy going forward.

Here's the rest....

 

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User Info Making Sure "It" Never Happens Again in forum [Market-Ticker]
Venkman
Posts: 2608
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LOVE the format. That's just totally designed to go viral. :)


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Skittle crapping Unicorns - Taste the Rainbow!
Chessmaster
Posts: 284
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Get that out there. True banking for the public should not be a casino.

Send it to everyone.


Thanks

GLTA

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You never go broke taking a profit UNLESS you spend like an *******!
Karlmarxghost
Posts: 4148
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I'm Your Huckleberry
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So how many politicians do I need to send this to?

Also damn you for shutting down comments all day Friday :D

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My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
Genesis
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TJ: All of them.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Laura
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Green A True American Patriot!
Peoples Republic of Florida
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TJ, pay up and the pink screen disappears at will. It works out to slightly more than $10/month, which I am sure doesn't cover Genesis' costs to support the site.

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www.................
Jstanley01
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Silver A True American Patriot!
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Prudence is being enforced with borrowers again, now it's the lenders' turn.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum
Tsberts
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Karl -

Thought you'd like to know that here at the corporate office, we have a very strict web content filter - WebSense, with a restrictive ruleset. All of tickerforum.org and all of market-ticker.org passes muster as "market-related" and therefore germane to business. The link today was to a pdf on denninger.net, which is firewalled as a "personal or social networking site."

I can't read it, so I don't know if there was a conscious decision on your part to post it to denninger.net instead of market-ticker.org. I also don't know how many of the 20,000+ employees of my organization read your ticker, but you lost us today moving it to your self-titled domain.

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Lordhumongous
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Quote:
TJ, pay up and the pink screen disappears at will. It works out to slightly more than $10/month, which I am sure doesn't cover Genesis' costs to support the site.


That doesn't help Gold Star members who don't like logging in from their work account.
Jstanley01
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Silver A True American Patriot!
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Quote:
The above transaction stream is completely safe. If Joe comes into the bank it does not have $10,000, but it does have a title worth $9,000 or more, and it thus can sell the promissory note into the market immediately or take a loan out itself against that value, generating the “missing” $9,000 immediately and paying Joe.
Looking at the balance sheet this refers to, the bank has actually does have $10,000 in cash: $1000 of Joe's and $9000 of the dealer's. If both Joe and the dealer demand their money, that's when they'd have to sell the promissory note.

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You can't cheat an honest man. ~P.T. Barnum

Nightowl
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And so it begins...
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Great stuff Karl thanks.

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"...and, if you think there are 70 virgins waiting for you after you blow yourself into pizza toppings...YOU ISLAM!"
Pastor William Rennick
Genesis
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Ts, there is no particular file storage location on the Ticker machines.

I will look into fixing that; my "storage" location off-site (at http://storage.denninger.net) is going to run into the same problem - that's where I upload the podcasts from Blogtalk.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Aac123
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Brilliant Karl

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Any one of us who doesn't have a healthy fear of the unknown isn't paying attention - Bank of America's Ken Lewis
Genesis
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I found a way to stuff it in the "images" directory on the market-ticker.org server, even though the software bitched a bit.

You should be able to get it now from work Ts.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Snowman
Posts: 1800
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avoiding yellow snow
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Karl,

Good summary, and very much liked the "back to basics" and clear approach. Smoke and mirrors has been going on for too long.

There is a good case for wrapping any company whose primary business is "financial services", including the treasury operations of corporations, into these thoughts. This is particularly important these days with the interconnectiveness of financial flows in the markets. I.e., "banking" is a function that needs to be treated as such.
Karlmarxghost
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I printed and faxed it to all the reps in the local area here in S Florida and to both senators. Not that it will help but hey I can sleep at night knowing I tried.

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My views are my view and mine alone. Karl or ticker forum does not endorse or necessarily agree with my views. DO not trade on my views or take them personally.
Reza30
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Karl,

Love the white paper and your simple examples in layman's terms. It should be an easy read for anyone who is struggling to understand how this crisis has evolved.

I think however that the key to all of your arguments is that we need to learn to live within our means as a nation. We are clearly unable to support our lifestyle as Americans without blowing economic bubbles. The kind of consumer economy that we have in place is unsustainable without the economic mirage that bubbles generate. "Feel good economy" is the key to all of our consumer spending.

It takes a lot of education (as you are doing) and a lot of discipline (as I hope will be beaten into us by this crisis) to make your vision a reality.

Thanks for all your efforts.

Tesla
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Quote:
It only requires prudent regulation that is difficult or impossible to “game”.


Quote:
we are here today in our economy and banking system due to the
intentional acts of government and quasi-government regulatory authorities who were subject to capture by corporate interests


You have still not solved the problem of "regulatory capture".

When the rewards of lawlessness are greater than the rewards of virtue, then you know what will win out every time.

Until and unless there is some non-capturable agency that can enforce regulation, you are merely setting up another cycle to be gamed. I don't see that mechanism in your work, and IMO it's probably the single most important topic around.

My proposal ? Allow citizens to bring enforcement action - have standing - such that a citizen or group of citizens could bring civil or criminal action against the culprits.

Additional emphasis should be put on the failure part - no injections from taxpayers, for any reason. Dead is dead.

That still doesn't answer the problem of a captured judiciary such as we have today, but at least it's a start.

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"Even a dog knows the difference between being stumbled over and being kicked." -Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes

"Neither the wisest Constitution nor the wisest laws will secure the liberty and happiness of a people whose manners are universally corrupt." -Samuel Adams
Genesis
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You can't blow bubbles without regulatory fraud Reza.

The reason Paulson went to the SEC in 2000 and again in 2004 is that the leverage limits were the overhead that they were banging their head again, and there was no way around them other than to play regulatory games.

There will ALWAYS be people who desire to cheat and to live beyond their means. The purpose of regulation (and laws) is to prevent those who would cheat from getting away with it.

You can't stop 'em from trying - that's human nature.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Tsberts
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Thanks for the change, Karl. That worked, reading now.

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Tsberts
Posts: 2357
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Gold
Minnesota
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Typo - paragraph four: s/insures/ensures

Excellent piece. Finally, a piece on banking my mother can understand. That means our reps should be able to understand it, too, right?

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Rjsasko
Posts: 67
Incept: 2009-03-23
Green
aurora, IL
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Karl,

What you've written is terrific but I think it only addresses the rot that is in plain sight but not the roots of the problem and therefore will ultimately fail. Government is way too big. As long as the tentacles of Congress are enmeshed in everything they will be committing self-serving mischief.

Look at the Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac mess. Certain Congress critters want more loans for their constituents and they literally forced the banks to lower credit standards to make those horrid loans. And when people raised alarms about the bad loans those people were politically smeared by those profitting from the crimes. Meanwhile the same players hop from elected government to appointed government to private business and back again. There is a reason why the three richest counties in the U.S. are suburbs of Washington, D.C. and it is bloated government and corruption. In the Soviet Union there was a saying: "Moscow is downhill from all the Russias". It meant that all of the wealth rolled towards the center of bureaucratic corruption.

We are becoming a Banana Republic if we don't shrink the government. What you've written is a good start but I fear it is like rearranging the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Exorcism
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Denver Area
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smiley

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"The behavior of any bureaucratic organization can best be understood by assuming that it is controlled by a secret cabal of its enemies."
— Robert Conquest
Tsberts
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Typo - Page 7, Glass-Steagall bullet point s/Travellers/Travelers

(Would you prefer proofreading comments in PM?)

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Photoguy was an optimist.
In Soviet Russia, the banks are run by the politicians.
The cancer within the federal government has metastasized, it's now up to each of the states to contain the cancer.
Genesis
Posts: 130799
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
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Fixed it - thanks.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
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