Rebuttal To Mish: FRL
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-05-07 09:11
by Karl Denninger
in Musings
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Rebuttal To Mish: FRL
 

These are always so much fun (blogger debates):

Fractional Reserve Lending (FRL) is fraudulent. Indeed, FRL in conjunction with micro-mismanagement of interest rates by the Fed is the root cause of the financial crisis we are in.

No its not (fraudulent), provided it is performed properly.

The latter (Fed argument) I will ignore for now.

Here's Mish's list of 5 things he claims to refute:

1. FRL is not fraud because the lending is backed by assets.
2. FRL is not fraud because it is allowed by law.
3. Eliminating FRL would require unwarranted "regulation".
4. No one is harmed by FRL.
5. People have a legal right to make agreements with banks allowing their money to be lent with no reserves

I'm going to ignore 2 (because whether something is allowed by law doesn't change whether its fraudulent), #3 is immaterial, #4 does not bear on the question (is it fraudulent) and neither does #5.

Instead, I will deal with #1 and dispose of this issue right here and now.

We will take a fictional bank that we set up with no capital or assets.  That is, it has a balance sheet that has zero on it.  We will also simplify this to two transactions, which is sufficient to show the math works; if it works with one transaction it works with 100 - or 10,000.

Joe comes into the bank and deposits $10,000.  The balance sheet now has $10,000 on the asset side and $10,000 on the liability side.  The bank physically has $10,000 that Joe deposited.

Jane comes in and borrows $9,000 to buy a car.  Jane now has $9,000 that originally belonged to Joe.  The bank has a promissory note from Jane and in addition is named as the secured lien-holder on the title to the vehicle, which is shows as an asset.  Jane owes the bank $9,000.

Now the argument against Fractional Reserve Lending is that it constitutes "printing" money.

It most certainly does not.  The same $10,000 - the original $10,000 - is the only actual money that has ever changed hands.  The velocity of that money has increased, but the amount of it has not.

(That credit has "moneyness", that is, it is fungible with and spends like money, doesn't make it money.)

If Joe comes in and demands his money, the bank only has $1,000 of it.  This is the argument for "Fraud!" claims. 

But if the bank has a good note from Jane, a fully-secured note, this is not true.  The bank can sell that note into the market, recover the $9,000, and pay Joe.  Nobody has been defrauded and Jane didn't get a free car (the person she pays has changed but not her obligation.)

Mish lays out a whole host of things like "Toggle bonds" and other silly loans (including a lot of mortgages) as evidence for the fraud.

But that's not evidence that Fractional Lending is fraudulent any more than someone printing up $100 bills on their color copier is evidence that money is fraudulent.

So long as the bank never lends out more unsecured than it has in excess capital, there has been no fraud.  The instant the bank does so, it has committed fraud.

The purpose of proper and prudent regulation (indeed, the purpose of government) is to prevent fraud in all of its forms.  This is why we have a government - to provide a framework for punishing frauds that is more civilized than the person who gets robbed picking up a weapon and braining the person who committed the fraud.

The failure in our system was not fractional reserve lending or even The Federal Reserve and its allowance of sweeps.  The latter made fraud easier to commit but did not cause fraud to occur.

Fraud is a conscious choice of action.  In the case of fractional lending it is the loaning of money that is neither secured or covered by bank capital reserves.

Once a bank does this it is immediately insolvent in that it is not possible to liquidate the holdings of the bank and repay all the depositors; any bank that represents that it is solvent when it has done this is committing fraud, and that fraud is repeated each and every time said bank accepts a deposit while in an insolvent condition. 

Note that the value of assets changes from one day to the next - your house is worth something different today than it was tomorrow.  Your car depreciates.  For this reason no bank can legitimately loan all the way up to the secured value of an asset, or it risks becoming instantly insolvent - all banks must in fact lend with a cushion against current asset values and as those cushions erode they must sell those assets into the market so as to prevent ever being rendered actually insolvent - and in a condition where the acceptance of any further deposit or processing of any transaction without disclosing their financial condition is an act of fraud.

Our failure is regulatory.  It is against the law to commit fraud and yet we have refused to prosecute those who have claimed to be solvent when they are not. 

We require no new law and no "reorganization" of the banks. 

We simply must enforce the law as written which instantly forces banks to make only prudent loans and forbids them to loan unsecured funds that exceed their excess capital at any point in time.

The sooner we the people understand that this crisis is the result of massive fraud commited by our banking class and covered for and bailed out by our government, the sooner we can force prudent regulation, clear the bad debt out of the system and return to having a stable, productive economy.

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User Info Rebuttal To Mish: FRL in forum [Market-Ticker]
Bozonian
Posts: 19882
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What about if the collateral assets lose value?

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Joe
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What if the collateral assets lose value faster than they can be sold?
Genesis
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Boz and Joe - this is why you can't go to the wall with the lending; you must build in a reserve (e.g. lending only 80% of the value of a house.) You must also monitor asset value, and sell the notes into the market BEFORE the deterioration reaches par.

IF you fail then your bank is insolvent AND MUST BE SEIZED IMMEDIATELY.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Snowman
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As a banker, FRL is part of my DNA, I can't part with it. Sorry to have to not add much other than to underscore that Gen is right.
FRL is like the insurance business, not all claims will happen all at once. And as long as banking is managed properly. When the bank is mismanaged, FRL is the least of worries.
Mrobe10586
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Perhaps this is mental masturbation, but I find myself wondering what, exactly, is the purpose of fractional reserve banking in a capitalist economy. Mish clearly thinks we can and should live without it.

I can think of a few things: create money (or purchasing power), create a "product" from which banks become profitable businesses, enable economic growth through the establishment of businesses whose product is too expensive to be purchased with cash in a reasonable timeframe.

Does it even matter?
Swrichmond
Posts: 327
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"IF you fail then your bank is insolvent AND MUST BE SEIZED IMMEDIATELY."

Seized by whom, and with whose money? The taxpayers?

If you fail you should be hung from a lamppost on High street, like in the old days.

The existence of a central bank creates moral hazard. The existence of FRL enhances moral hazard. Ceasing those two does not end moral hazard, but reduces it dramatically.

Banks can, and should, be places where money is put for safekeeping. If I want my money lent out, I can make a time deposit and agree to a share in the proceeds of the loan.
Genesis
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It radically reduces the cost of borrowed money.

Whether this is a good or bad thing is a different argument, but that is it's effect.

Without FRL secured loans would require upwards of 20% interest, simply because the lender would have to have $1 of excess capital taken in for every dollar lent, but must make an economic profit and thus must pay all their expenses out of that SINGLE transaction without the benefit of monetary velocity.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Genesis
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Quote:
Banks can, and should, be places where money is put for safekeeping. If I want my money lent out, I can make a time deposit and agree to a share in the proceeds of the loan.

You do, even now.

The safekeeping of your money comes with a cost (vaults, guards, etc.) You are in fact paid for the loan of your funds to the bank, whether it is formally in interest or in other things of value (e.g. protection against theft, fraudulent withdrawal by a third party, spoilage by fire or other calamity, etc)

You're not forced to do this - buy a big safe and bolt it to your floor. You will quickly find out how much of a pain in the ass (and thus how much cost) is really involved in safely storing your money.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Joe
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Gen - any chance of having Mish as a guest on BlogTalkRadio?
Genesis
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He'd be welcome if he wants to come play in my sandbox. There's lots of sandstickers in there tho smiley

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Pel
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A question about your example in light of a non-FDIC environment.

The FDIC was instituted to ensure deposit liabilities could be repaid when a bank becomes insolvent.

Without the FDIC, say, in the 30's bank crash, were depositors walking away with nothing? I presume there were insolvent banks, and some bank depositors got pennies on the dollar, but surely that was restricted to the high-rate, risky stuff, and barely affected the demand deposit accounts?

Were grannies and joes with small, safe deposit amounts actually getting 70/60/50 cents on the dollar or worse when a bank would fold?

Were things really that bad, or was the FDIC a knee-jerk reaction to a non-issue?

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Federal Reserve Governor Fisher wrote..
"My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl."
Genesis
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Quote:
Without the FDIC, say, in the 30's bank crash, were depositors walking away with nothing? I presume there were insolvent banks, and some bank depositors got pennies on the dollar, but surely that was restricted to the high-rate, risky stuff, and barely affected the demand deposit accounts?

Were grannies and joes with small, safe deposit amounts actually getting 70/60/50 cents on the dollar or worse when a bank would fold?

Yes.

Examiners were as crooked then as they are now, and would allow banks to go deeply underwater on unsecured paper.

When they blew up depositors got ****ed, sometimes losing everything.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Txdomer
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Talking about one bank is all fine and good, but when you go to the system level, the fraud is inevitable. To deny the ultimate systemic fraud is to deny the existence of greed.

Unfortunately, there are no Martians to bail out the system.

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Gemini
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Stupid question:
What about investment banks? Whats the real difference between commercial and investment banking practices, and could investment banks function with out fractional reserve lending?

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Pika-steph
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Uncool to give Mish sandspur vagina. smiley

This is really where people get screwed up. Even very smart people.

Right now our 'moneyness' is deflating, being redeemed and defaulted because the biggest players in our financial system leveraged up to their eyeballs. This means, for the average Joe, that what they think they have, they really may not. This is where people think FRB is the culprit. It isn't. The actions of the bank are at fault - and it has nothing to do with FRB.

This is also precisely why the U$D ain't going anywhere. When the moneyness is removed from the system, it drives people into the thing they can control if they have it in their hand. Bad money drives out the good - and the 'assets' which appear as electronic bips on balance sheets are questionable at best because no one ****ing knows if there's something behind it to make it money good.

FUBAR.

But it ain't FRB.

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Bdcmc03
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Fractional reserve lending is in essence a hoax. Not to mention the constitution gives us no authority for a central bank. Why? Because, they are always used to give insiders special deals, and always end up screwing the people. Also it's impossible to micromanage a large economy.

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"Artificially low interest rates are achieved by inflating the money supply." -Dr. Ron Paul

Reason: bad wording
Highonlife
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For all their idealism, i wonder if a system without some form of fractional reserve banking is even possible?

While i agree with Karl that not having fractional reserve banking in some form or the other would raise borrowing costs, i dont think that it wouldnt be for the reason of having to compensate for a teller/building/whatever.
Because as there is no one to deposit money with the bank (why would they?) having an organized institution is meaningless. Unless you are talking about people having vaults where they pay the bank for security, but then the question of fractional reserves dont come into play because there is no loan made.

We already have experienced a system of non fractional reserve lending mechanisms in the form of money lenders. (Shylock from merchant of venice) People who had the money and would loan it out on availability. Even these exercised a primitive form of fractional reserve lending.

Ok , slight side note: I argue that fractional reserve banking doesnt really care about where the bank gets the funds from. It is about keeping a fraction of money thta you have as reserve, and being allowed to loan the rest. If the bank starts with a billion dollars due to a benefactor dying and leaving the money to them, im sure they would still have to reserve a fraction of it.

Now getting back to the money lenders. I doubt any money lender would lend out all his money. what would he survive on? So even he would keep money for a rainy day (call it that, or call it a fractional reserve, it is ultimately keeping a fraction of money available as a reserve)

As we well know, humans are drawn to make a quick buck. How long would it take someone to arbitrage a borrowing versus lending opportunity that would crop up from the above case? So you have a primitive broker who could borrow from a money lender or a bunch of money lenders, and lend it to someone who needed the money at a higher rate. This is a necessity, since sometimes yo uneed debt thta is too large to be serviced by a single money lender .

How are banks different from the above broker?

I think by simplifying the situation to having only one bank recieving the money , you are in fact complicating the issue. :)
It would not be far fetched to imagine that 90% of the time , the money that is lent out to someone is probably going to end up in the hands of another bank. The odds of a Company using their loan to pay a supplier, and the supplier banking with the same bank that the company used? probably not more than 10% of the time.
So in fact each bank is not inflating the money supply on its own. The bank are simply acting as brokers , and loaning out whatever funds come in, to whoever is willing to take the funds.
This is the basic fungibility of money. You dont care if a particular note has passed through your hands before, you just care that a note has been handed to you.

The system overall acts as an inflator of money supply, not the banks itself. but as my money-lender + broker example would show, the odds are that a disorganized system would probably crop up in any case.

This is just something that cropped in my head right now. Maybe one day ill actually expand this into a more complete bit of prose.


Edit: I think my explanation is a bit rushed. I really should spend some time and expand my concept a bit more properly. If anyone has any questions about it, i will be willing to answer. If i do expand, ill put it on my blog and will post a link to it here.

Mayorquimby
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I was surprised to see this post on Mish's blog myself and am really glad you've addressed this issue.

I'm with Gen on this one. I don't think Mish et al should post a critique of FRL without mentioning a realistic and viable alternative that would be feasible in 2009.

At any rate, you can't deny the fact that we're in this heap of trouble because of a renegade Fed, corrupt Congress, inattentive populace and misuse of globalization. Had none of these 'lapses' occurred, I think FRL would be humming along quite nicely indeed.

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Cjworkman
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FRL is not fraudulent...

what is fruadulent is the government allowing banks to continue to operate while below regulatory captial limits.


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Pel
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One of Mish's complaints (and other libertarians of his stripe) is that these big Federal institutions have done nothing to help. Additionally, the argument goes, because they're so big and have Federal protection, they're immune from the consequences of bad management until regime change occurs.

At least with smaller, private firms without the governmental shield, it is likely they'd topple faster and get us back to "reset & start over" level quicker.

There's some merit there.

I mean, the FSLIC didn't save the S&Ls and swept a lot of the insolvency under the rug until it couldn't be hidden any longer. Two decades later (now), it is being repeated with the FDIC and banks. Additionally, we have the Fed+Treasury+complaisant-Congress+Administration exacerbating things by propping up clearly failed institutions. I won't mention the mess with the SEC not doing its job, the ratings agencies not doing theirs, or the Fanny/Freddie stuff.

The whole purpose of these institutions was to protect us from this sort of thing.

I'm not into anarchy, but I'm sitting on the fence at the moment. Given the seemingly continual failure of our big government institutions, the more-libertarian, more-private approach needs to be reexamined, perhaps. I'm saying that from an academic perspective, not from a political one.

The non-libertarian approach is saying "Regime change and big institution / statutory overhaul" is what we need to fix things. Well, it didn't prevent the current mess. I'm skeptical it will get us out of it and prevent the next one.

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Federal Reserve Governor Fisher wrote..
"My dissenting vote last week was simply a difference of opinion about how far and how fast we might re-spike the monetary punchbowl."
Genesis
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CJ: DING DING DING DING DING ****ING DING!

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Bdcmc03
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Incept: 2009-04-03

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Highonlife---The civilized world lived for 5,000 years without central banking, or any banking at all. Banking started by goldsmiths loaning out "notes" and over leveraging so they could make a lot of money. But, when the people found out about it they would end up being hung by the neck. The world would be a lot better place with out any banks at all, well at least any central banks. A gold standard we should also have. Banking hasn't changed from the goldsmiths, they now just wear suits and say hi how ya doin when you come in so they can charge you usury.

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"Artificially low interest rates are achieved by inflating the money supply." -Dr. Ron Paul
Wisc-xc
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The FRL debate that Mish gives us is an interesting intellectual exercise but let's get real here, FRL isn't going away any time soon, if ever. That being the case, as Gen points out, focus on making sure the regulatory agencies are functioning properly (that means being kept independent of this banking system) instead of wasting time trying to abolish what surely is here to stay as far as the eye can see.
Wisc-xc
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BTW, we can have FRL without the Federal Reserve, or at least as it's presently constituted.
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