PPI - More Deflation?
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-03-17 08:44
by Karl Denninger
in Macro Factors
Ignore this thread
PPI - More Deflation?
 

The PPI report today was good for a second straight month showing deflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector.

While the headline PPI came in 0.1% positive, the ugly was in the intermediate goods and crude goods numbers, both of which declined (by 0.9% and 4.5%, respectively.)

The crude goods number in particularly is rapidly decreasing, and this is not oil.  It was down 2.9% in January and now, at 4.5% down, appears to be accelerating toward the floor at Warp 9.

Here's the ugly folks - this is not being translated into prices on the shelf.  That is, manufacturers are maintaining prices into the economic malaise in a desperate attempt to hold profit margins (and squeeze consumers.)

Not good.

The only actual good news was the concurrent housing start number, up 22% from January.  This is somewhat stupid as a statistic since few people start building anything in January due to the weather, but the fact remains that this is a significant jump.  Most of the new start gains are multifamily - apartments and condos.

Condos?

Oh, and its focused in the Northeast.

Condos in New York?

I wish those who are building these things the best of luck.  After all, its St. Paddy's Day (and boy, are they going to need the Luck Of The Irish on this one!)

Were I in their shoes I'd be hitting that Irish Whiskey about now, especially given the continued focus on attempting to borrow our way to prosperity - when we're already too far in the debt hole.

Something about trying to fix a drunk with a bottle of whiskey comes to mind..... but heh, its St. Paddy's Day - time to forget rationality and head to the bar!

(Just kidding.  I think.)

Discussion below (registration required to post)
 

Main Navigation
Full-Text Search & Archives
Archive Access
Get Adobe Flash player





Blogtalk 3:30 CT Mondays
Items To Look At


Discuss The Capital Markets along with daily technical analysis with our Gold Donor program.

Where We Are, Where We're Heading (2013) - The annual 2013 Ticker

Links and Blogroll
Our policy on reciprocal links: Send us an email with your information and why you think your blog or news site would make a good addition - in most cases reciprocal link requests will be granted.
Seeking Alpha Certified
Legal Disclaimer

The content on this site is provided without any warranty, express or implied. All opinions expressed on this site are those of the author and may contain errors or omissions.

NO MATERIAL HERE CONSTITUTES "INVESTMENT ADVICE" NOR IS IT A RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL ANY FINANCIAL INSTRUMENT, INCLUDING BUT NOT LIMITED TO STOCKS, OPTIONS, BONDS OR FUTURES.

The author may have a position in any company or security mentioned herein. Actions you undertake as a consequence of any analysis, opinion or advertisement on this site are your sole responsibility.

Looking for "The Best of Market Ticker"? Check out
Ticker Classics.

Visit the forum to discuss this and other investing-related topics; see the FAQ on the forum for information about Gold Donor status including access to our technical analysis video server.

Market charts, when present, used with permission of TD Ameritrade/ThinkOrSwim Inc. Neither TD Ameritrade or ThinkOrSwim have reviewed, approved or disapproved any content herein.

Market Ticker content may be reproduced or excerpted online provided full attribution is given and the original article source is linked to. Please contact Karl Denninger for reprint permission in other media.

Submissions may be sent "over the transom" to The Editor at any time. To be considered for publication your submission must include full and correct contact information and be related to an economic or political matter of the day. All submissions become the property of The Market Ticker.

Leads on stories of current economic and political interest are always welcome. Our fax tip line is 850-897-9364; please include contact information with your transmission.

 
Comments.......
User: Not logged on
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last
User Info PPI - More Deflation? in forum [Market-Ticker]
Margincalltime
Posts: 1025
Incept: 2008-04-01
Green
NJ
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'd like to know who's lending them the $ to build those condos. Us?
Sashae
Posts: 20
Incept: 2008-07-23

nyc
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
It's interesting. The projects I see still being built here in NY are hauling ass to get done. There's a project on 5th avenue I'm familiar with that's going up at the rate of close to a floor a week -- this is a 50+ story condotel + retail -- that they're literally pouring concrete 12-14 hours a day, 7 days a week. It's something to behold.
Kuhio
Posts: 208
Incept: 2008-12-31

Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
@Sashae - that's odd, many major SoCal hotel/housing projects have come to complete stops. Construction fences are still up, but the graded land & foundations are lying fallow as if in crop rotation.
Sashae
Posts: 20
Incept: 2008-07-23

nyc
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
There are some dead projects, to be sure -- there's a lot of resy construction on the West Side in the 10s-30s, based on the hype of the Meatpacking District and West Chelsea, but reality is bad public transportation and a lot of industrial/garage type work still there, not a place for a $1mil 1BR.

There doesn't seem to be much "normal pace" building going on.
R2judge
Posts: 574
Incept: 2008-04-13
Green
Burbank CA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Here's the ugly folks - this is not being translated into prices on the shelf. That is, manufacturers are maintaining prices into the economic malaise in a desperate attempt to hold profit margins (and squeeze consumers.)

-------------------

A comment i remember from reading about the Great Depression is that Hoover exhorted business to maintain wages in the face of falling prices. Interesting that we are seeing business maintaining prices in the face of falling wages.
Icanhasbailout
Posts: 9939
Incept: 2009-03-10
Green A True American Patriot!
Imaginationland
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I saw the news about new housing starts this morning and I just couldn't come up with a good answer to the question of who is going to buy all these new houses.

----------
Laura
Posts: 3946
Incept: 2008-05-05
Green A True American Patriot!
Peoples Republic of Florida
Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Happy St Patty's Day, Gen, the green is funny looking.

----------
www.................
Genesis
Posts: 130723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Thank you smiley

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Curbyourrisk
Posts: 3592
Incept: 2008-08-19

Farmingdale, NY
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
And I thought it was my computer that was screwy (the green). Almost called Systems about it. Good thing I did not, last time I mention issues with a site like this one....THE WEBSENSED IT!!!!!! I hate when they do that. I don;t think I could get throught he day without learning something from this site everyday.

----------
Time is up.

I hate to burst your bubble, but there is no Santa Claus, the tooth fairy does not exist and American justice does not involve the courts.
Statusquojoe
Posts: 2784
Incept: 2008-11-20
Green A True American Patriot!
Land of the fees Home of the slaves.
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Non sequitur here, but I noticed a change in the literary style of the ticker, perhaps in the spirit of the day to go with the green? Nice touch.

----------
There are so many rules no one knows which rules to follow. The only sure rule is more rules will follow. SQJ.
Arkroyal
Posts: 115
Incept: 2009-02-04
Green
St. Augustine, FL
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Has anyone heard anything about why the M 1 Multiplier has not been updated when it should have been over at the St. Louis Fed?

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/ser....
Alanha
Posts: 2168
Incept: 2008-12-30


Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
inline

----------
I was Bezzle's sock puppet before Tickerguy nailed my ass.
Spigot
Posts: 253
Incept: 2009-03-02
Green
North East
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
"Discounting" into falling demand works IF there is reserve buying power that needs a little extra motivation. Inventories can then be cleared, balance sheets rebuilt, etc. Quite unfortunately today we are seeing a whole sale destruction of "buying power" since it is all on borrowed money and people do not feel like or are not qualified to borrow more. CNN poll, 45% believe another Great Depression is LIKELY starting 2009. Its fugly out there on Main St. And its Main St that is the basis for financial activities, hence now Main St is the driver. And the Financials are the driven. Expect worse to come.

----------
Drip, drip, drip...
Psquared
Posts: 1876
Incept: 2008-10-11

SE USA
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
In a word, we are seeing rampant USURY. It is not just that consumer prices are not coming down, but I keep getting notices that my interest rate is going up on any unpaid balances. I have BP gas card on which I have never been late nor never had to carry a balance -- in over 35 years back when it was Amoco. The card is handled by Chase. The new rate is 29.9%.

Are they trying force consumers into bankruptcy or keep them from buying? I'm all for reducing debt but if this results in fewer dollars spent won't it hurt them in the end. (I'd like to hurt them in the end after the explanation in the letter stated they were raising the rate because THEY were having a hard time.)

----------
"Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other." ~ John Adams
Genesis
Posts: 130723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
They're getting RAMMED with charge-offs.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mtgspy
Posts: 6202
Incept: 2007-10-27
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Not necessarily.

Charge off is ramping up. But the main reason is to book 300M quick if you increase the interest rate on the "asset" side. Mark-to-model. And this is before Obama enact the limit on cards legislation. I am telling you right now, nobody with cashflowing asset will take advantage of the m2model nearly as the guys with things to hide. Direct order straight from the fuhrer, and they don't even mask the wordings in the memo.

----------
I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Genesis
Posts: 130723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Yep - you increase the rate, you increase the cashflow.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Phirang
Posts: 10157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Green
Flogging a "little person"
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
mtgspy, would this explain the 18% sen debt my friend's friend is issuing on behalf of chase bank to random insurance companies in new orleans?

----------
I'm not special, and I am not likely to accomplish anything extraordinary in my life. If you are reading this comment, the case is most likely that neither will you. http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html
Mtgspy
Posts: 6202
Incept: 2007-10-27
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hahahaha. No.
Either it curtails positive or curtails in a negative way.
Prepay or default.

The important part is here: the guys writing the memo specifically ask for that PART of the model to stay the way it is. What does that tell you?

----------
I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod

Genesis
Posts: 130723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Hehehehe... no, really? smiley

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mtgspy
Posts: 6202
Incept: 2007-10-27
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Absolutely. JPM and BAC is doing this as we speak. Unfortunately, being a "good" guy doesn't pay here, so I don't offer much in the way of suggestions. smiley

----------
I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Mtgspy
Posts: 6202
Incept: 2007-10-27
Green

Banned
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
Also if u think a $60k/year govt auditor is gonna catch this before it's too late and blows up i have a bridge for sale.

----------
I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Phirang
Posts: 10157
Incept: 2008-10-25
Green
Flogging a "little person"
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
I'll try to get some more anecdotes about sen debt issues, but so far, I've been hearing crap like 18% coupons on these things. Pricing THAT into the market makes me want to shop for 200 puts...


----------
I'm not special, and I am not likely to accomplish anything extraordinary in my life. If you are reading this comment, the case is most likely that neither will you. http://www.cracked.com/article_18544_how-the-karate-kid-ruined-modern-world.html
Genesis
Posts: 130723
Incept: 2007-06-26
Admin A True American Patriot!
Report This As A Bad Post Add To Your Ignored User List
smiley

Now add foreign capital flows into this, along with the general "Bezzle", and things could get rather, uh.... interesting in a couple of months.

Maybe we get into or even through summer, maybe not.

Probably not.

----------
I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Login Register Top Blog Top Blog Topics FAQ
Showing Page 1 of 2  First12Last