Followup: Reserve Banking
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-03-15 13:30
by Karl Denninger
in Banking System
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Followup: Reserve Banking
 

Well that created a stir.... including a couple of bans for people who decided (despite being warned!) that this would NOT turn into their personal version of a place to run conspiracy theories unrelated to the topic (e.g. "The Fed is an illegal xxxx", or even better, "income taxes are unconstitutional")

This is one of the unfortunate realities of Internet discussion forums, and why I don't have comments directly enabled here on The Ticker, instead redirecting them to the forum.  There are only 24 hours in a day and despite some people's belief that I'm Borg, I do need to sleep.  Trying to spread all this out would make it impossible for me to keep track of it all - so I don't.

One astounding disconnect I have found in those who argue against fractional reserve banking is the utter lack of comprehension of how credit intermediation works.  We have become so numb to reality in our life that we don't even notice it any more.

One simple example was found last night; I filled my truck with gasoline, swiping a credit card at the pump.  We do this every day and don't think a bit about it - but in fact this is relatively new in our financial system.

Does anyone remember 20, 30 years ago?  Most people either paid cash for their fuel or had a company-specific gas credit card.  Your SHELL card was worthless at a MOBIL station.

Why?

Because there was no real intermediation of credit as we have today.  Banks could not cross state lines in their operation and credit was not, to the degree today, fungible (equivalent) with money.

Today this has all changed.  Your credit card is accepted basically everywhere, even though the fact that it says "VISA" on it doesn't tell you which bank issued it - and thus who has to settle that transaction in the ultimate.  Electronic networks have made credit and money - that is, actual cash - effectively equivalent.

At the same time fractional lending has made speculative and productive investment possible to a never-before possible degree.  You are reading this blog in no small part as a consequence of that - while the Internet Bubble was devastating to those who got caught on the wrong side of it, but for that we likely would not have an Internet as we do today.

Here's the bottom line folks:

  • Fractional reserve banking has both costs and benefits.
  • The benefits, by and large, appear to this writer to outweigh the costs.
  • Attempting to game the costs, however, leads to dramatic and extraordinarily bad outcomes.

Simply put, leverage limits prevent excessive expansion of credit without interfering with the intermediation function that we now find essential in modern life.

Government is, of course, always pressed by business to override these limits in one form or another, because with greater leverage comes greater profits when things go well.

Of course the corollary is that you get greater losses when things go poorly.

One corrective measure we should apply is to set regulatory capital limits as the inverse of leverage.  That is, if we have a 6% regulatory capital requirement for 10:1 reserve lending, if someone wants 20:1 they should be required to hold 12%.

If you couple this with two more demands you can effectively eliminate systemic failure risk:

  1. Everything you hold as an asset must be traded on a public exchange or have an exposed and public model, both run nightly, with no hidden or off-sheet exposures of any kind.
  2. Your regulatory capital ratios must be published and exposed every night.

Immediate seizure and liquidation of any firm that violates limits now provides the safety necessary to insure that depositors are protected, and public exposure of (1) and (2) means that the sort of game-playing we saw with IndyMac, where capital was improperly moved from one reporting period to another, will be immediately detected both by investors and the public at large.

We must also reverse all the game-playing that has plagued the system, including but not limited to the items set forth in the previous Ticker.  Glass-Steagall must be reinstated, off-balance-sheet financial games must be banned, and the common crime of fraud in peddling instruments must be prosecuted and enforced, including those people in our government that have intentionally enabled such misdirection and fraudulent accounting.

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User Info Followup: Reserve Banking in forum [Market-Ticker]
Implosion
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FYI, going directly to market-ticker.org displays the article, but clicking on the link you posted displayed "The Bezzle" Defined.

EDIT: actually it appears that the original Reserve Banking article is showing up on the main ticker page.

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"You better believe in the PPT! If you haven't by now, you will." - Chummin (2010)

Honorius
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Same thing here.
Soros
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La La Land
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same results here :~(

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So long and thanks for all the fish.
Genesis
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Its working fine for me..... hit "refresh"

Edit: ****, I know what's going on. I may not be able to fix that immediately.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?

Implosion
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Tried clearing my cache, and also tried using FireFox instead of IE, but still same results.

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"You better believe in the PPT! If you haven't by now, you will." - Chummin (2010)
Vegasradar
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me too
If I go directly to Market-ticker.org I get Friday's reserve banking
if I click the link above it goes to the Bezzle
cleared cache too

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Genesis
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Fixed it. Error on my end.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
1lumpsum
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Inforced leverage limits + Transparency=Fractional Reserve Banking problems solved.

Now we need a Ticker on debt based money, you have not sold me on that yet.

Swrichmond
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KD,

Your examples perfectly illustrate how obscenely profitable banking is (and why) under a fractional-reserve system, and offers us the explanation we need to understand why banksters defend it so vigorously.
1lumpsum
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Swrichmond, I get from the tickers how beneficial FRB is to EVERYONE. Now debt based money when the exponential function is thought about, seems that it can only end badly

Bear
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FRB is NOT bad...UNregulated FRB certainly is.....Too much temptation for the gaming of the system in MANY, MANY ways by the "smart feller's"

So who do we blame here?

The repealing of Glass-Steagall ?
The Admin/Congress over the years for allowing/or intentionally cutting the budget of security enforcement agencies?
The American public for living way beyond its means?

The list goes on and on...Truth is, nobody held a gun to these home buyers heads FORCING them to balloon up their enormous credit exposure...They're adults capable of making informed decisions on their own.....that's what they told us anyway

Is the govt supposed to be the adult decision maker in whats allowed by its citizen, the inexperienced child?

In good times everybody clamors of how there is too much govt....in bad times, they crucify that same govt that it didn't do enough to protect them from the wolves of wall street that they knew were out there..... Go figure

Me thinks the truth comes out in the wash... I think I have a pretty good idea of how this ends. History doesn't just rhyme, it duplicates...if it doesn't, then capitalism does NOT survive this ****storm...and that is a distinct possibility also

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Paying other people interest to borrow money from ourselves that we don't have...... Asimov

It is quite possible that ALL debt in FRB with fiat currency is insoluble...Mogambu
Resistance
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Quote:

Fractional reserve banking has both costs and benefits.
The benefits, by and large, appear to this writer to outweigh the costs.
Attempting to game the costs, however, leads to dramatic and extraordinarily bad outcomes.



Agree
Disagree
Agree


All in all it's been a great discussion. You are doing a service KD. These ideas and divergent opinions need to be discussed so that, in the end, we may be able to construct a better system.

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"Why must political experiments always be in the direction of more government? Why not give the free market a county or even a state or two, and see what it can accomplish?"Murray Rothbard - The Fallacy of the Public Sector
Musashi
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Behind the Irony Curtain
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Quote:
So who do we blame here?


No question. Government interference.

They had a good profitable thing going for a long time.

Enter the Government forcing them to lend to poor credit risks at rates normally reserved for good risks. Once risk is mispriced it creates the incentive or even forces a workaround as no one in his sane mind is going to be legislated into a loss.
That's how all this shoving off paper on the next guy started.
Government allowed it because it was obvious that allowing the scam was the only way their political objectives were going to get fulfilled.
Then the seed of scam grew and grew from there until there were only two types of people, the ones that scam everything or the ones that avoid the system all together in disgust.
The latter are a small minority.
Jhn
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Yurop
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Sundevilgrad wrote..
construct a better system

FRB was never constructed. It is a spontaneuous order. IOU:s were written on pieces of clay 4000 years ago in Mesopotamia. It is like communism vs. capitalism. No one ever constructed capitalism. It evolved. Intelligent design never beats evolution and will not this time either.

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Give me your view on fractional reserve banking and I shall tell you who you are.
Reza30
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Karl,

Very good followup. I had also raised similar points in my reply to your last ticker on Reserve Banking, which I believe are the key to the system's integrity and survivability:

Quote:
Attempting to game the costs, however, leads to dramatic and extraordinarily bad outcomes.

Simply put, leverage limits prevent excessive expansion of credit without interfering with the intermediation function that we now find essential in modern life.


Much of the mess we are witnessing right now is due to the attempts to remove leverage limits. You have pointed out that Paulson himself lobbied for this removal when he was at Goldman.

So how can you possibly put limits on lobbyists in order to put limits on leverage? They have become far too powerful in our political system. It reminds me of the Roman times where a few powerful rich men owned the whole Roman Senate, and the Senate no longer cared about the Roman population's interests.

Jhn
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Yurop
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Karl, I think trying to find stability through competition between banks should be a realistic alternative to regulation. Banks should be able to compete with solidity. In that respect deposit insurance and lender of last resort is counterproductive.

In countries like Hong Kong, Singapore and Liechtenstein, this is already a reality, since governments there are too small to save the banking system.

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Give me your view on fractional reserve banking and I shall tell you who you are.
Swrichmond
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"Much of the mess we are witnessing right now is due to the attempts to remove leverage limits."

"Inforced leverage limits + Transparency=Fractional Reserve Banking problems solved."


Poppycock. If leverage is allowed it will be abused in an effort to achieve advantage over competitors. Crap will go "off balance-sheet" or into some new "financial vehicle" designed to confuse regulators long enough to win the game.

The problem with fractional reserve banking is that it gives the appearance of working really well...until it breaks everything. Any nation that unilaterally adopted full-reserve banking and/or a fully-backed currency would be economically and militarily outproduced by its neighbors during the honeymoon phase of FRB / fiat which lasts, by our recent observations, several generations. In other words, bad money displaces good money.

Since bad money also makes for highly profitable banking, as Karl points out so eloquently, bad money also makes for a reliable stream of political contributions and a fully deep-captured political system.

We are doomed by political realities to repeat this cycle. The Austirans are, of course, correct, but have no chance of seeing their position carried into policy since they can't be bought.

Let's just get on with it.
Ljkewlj
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I think this is kind of OT compared to the whole article that Karl has wrote but since he mentions it in the post, I'll add it to this thread.

Regarding gas stations, credit cards and cash. Within the last 4 or 5 months there has been a trend change that I haven't seen happen since the 1970's. I was not old enough in the 70's to drive but I do remember it. There used to be a cash price for gas and a credit price which was was higher. Recently this has reappeared in my state of Ct. and the avg. difference is 4 cents per gallon. Mobil gas station will give you the cash price if you are using a mobil credit card BUT you have to go into the store to pay for it which is 40 or 50 feet from the pumps to get that price!

I know not everyone is experiencing this because my sister came to visit for X-mas and where she lives in the state of Texas she said that by law they can not charge different prices for cash vs. credit paid for gas. Anyone else across the US experiencing this in other states?

Could this be just the start to prices paid when using cash vs. credit??? If this has been talked about already on this board, please bilge.

1lumpsum
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Lj, they charge more for credit for gas at a gas stations here in Tennessee, mostly the ones by the interstate. They do this to recoup the fees the credit card companies charge them.

Xennady
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1lumpsum,

Many stations in my area or Michigan do this also. It started last year and they're still doing it even with the drop in gas prices.
Shooter
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wow wow wow, Ljkewlj

Looks like it's mr. small business owners time to game the system.
with credit lines coming down, It just dawned on me more people will be using cash.
CASH as in no paper trail,skimming off the top,while this has been done for years and one reason cash businesses sell for 6x net
(ie BARS carwashes delis and the like, a deli in my area says cash only) vs 3x for a credit type business
looks like that no sale button will be getting a lot of use. Uncle Sam going to be a few bucks lighter on taxes obviously..interesting FRAUD runs downhill it's downright understandable don't condone it but understand I do

Xennady
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Anyway, interesting discussion.

Historian Moses Finley wrote that the lack of fractional reserve banking was a significant handicap for economic activity in the ancient world.

Maybe that is a little too obscure but every time I see someone complaining about FRB I think of that.

Things didn't really work out for them in the end and that lack was one of the reasons.
Avaspell
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Karl, this is an excellent followup, and describe much better what is going on and our options. I can also see how a monetary system can naturally evolve into a credit-based system.

However, I think that, instead of having arbitrary or model-based leverage limits, the depositor should select the appropriate leverage limit (and the mark-to-market model).

This allows individuals to determine what sort of risks they are willing to take with their earnings.
Jhn
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Yurop
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"the depositor should select the appropriate leverage limit"

There is a bank market. Sharia banks should feel free to compete.

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Give me your view on fractional reserve banking and I shall tell you who you are.
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