The Market Kills The Bezzle
The Market Ticker ® - Commentary on The Capital Markets
Posted 2009-03-06 10:38
by Karl Denninger
in Politics
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The Market Kills The Bezzle
 

It appears that Mr. Market is singularly unimpressed with the unemployment situation, which is actually showing a slowing in the rate of change in U-6, which is in fact positive.

However, "The Bezzle" remains unaddressed by government, and therefore, irrespective of anything else, the market will sell off.

The Nasdaq is down more than 2% at this point, and here's the chart of today's /ES thus far:

This will not stop until "The Bezzle" comes out.  One way or another, it will come out.

That's more than a 3% move downward today in the first hour and a half from the top today - more than 20 S&P points.

Either Government will force The Bezzle out, or the market will force it out, and if The Market forces it out the consequence will be the destruction of millions of jobs that would otherwise not need to be destroyed, along with trillions of unnecessary wealth destruction.

The Government is incapable of keeping The Bezzle from being removed from the system, no matter what people in DC, including lobbyists and politicians would like.

This simply isn't up to them - they are not in control.

President Clinton discovered during his first term that The Bond Market in fact controlled his agenda, not the other way around.  He was forced to abandon his audacious health care agenda when the bond market threw up all over it.

President Obama is in a much more precarious situation, in that this is not just about whether he can execute his agenda or not - it is about whether we will have an economy (and likely a republic) left in another year or so, and if he does not pull the cotton out of his ears in the very near future the answer will be "no", as we are approaching a point where we will suffer enough damage to the capital markets that a reply of at least the 1930s - if not the 1870s - will become inevitable.

Be warned Mr. President - we are on the precipice of a tipping point from which you and our economy cannot recover for a decade or more, if at all.

Protecting those who have stolen the wealth of millions of Americans, along with their homes and jobs, is going to become singularly unpopular in very short order.

Yes, George W. Bush was responsible (along with President Clinton before him and the Congress over the last 20 years) for the economic and market conditions that got us here.  I've said that repeatedly.

You, however, are personally responsible for refusing to address the issues and continuing to foment and cause what is now turning into an all out economic and market collapse.

President Obama claims that he wants to create new jobs and save existing ones.  He cannot do so as long as The Market continues to do the job that he refuses to - that is, cleaning out "The Bezzle" from our financial and market systems; that proces sis destroying jobs at an ever-accelerating rate, and has resulted in a loss of nearly 10% of the market's value this week alone.

This loss will continue and in fact accelerate until The Bezzle is gone, and if President Obama is going to fulfill his promise to "save or create" jobs, he is going to have to step up and put a stop to The Bezzle himself, because if he does not, the market's actions will not only negate his efforts but totally run over them, destroying the wealth, prosperity and jobs of Americans.

President Obama has had plenty of time to:

  • Issue an Executive Order to defang the CDS monster, as I noted in the Ticker yesterday.
  • Direct the FBI (an Executive Department) to start going after the crooks who caused this mess, and make a very public statement to that effect.
  • Stop appointing tax cheats to the cabinet, stop backing those who are already in, and replace them.  Volcker would make an excellent Treasury Secretary and I bet he paid his taxes.
  • And more.

The first job of a new manager, where he is brought in to clean up the mess made by the old manager, is to fire and replace all the incompetent people responsible for the mess, to sweep the floors down to the bare wood if necessary, and to lay down the law publicly that there is a new boss in town and the "old way" of doing things will no longer be tolerated.

President Obama has failed to do any of the above and as such his claim that he intends to "save or create" jobs is a lie.

President Obama owns this reality, whether he wants to or not, and the market, as of this point, is now down more than 20% from his inaugeration date and more than 30% from the date of the election, with nearly a 10% loss in the last week.

This will continue until President Obama acts or every company with financial exposure of any sort is destroyed.

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User Info The Market Kills The Bezzle in forum [Market-Ticker]
Mtgspy
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I would have never guessed that the USA will be cited in history books one day as a country that experiences a collapse by protecting a small group of dictator criminals.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Bear
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It doesnt belong to Obama, its still Dubya's mess....He is just going to make sure it stays with him....everything is going according to plan I believe, in fact, theyre brushing and shampooing Obama white stallion that he's going to ride in on right now....right after we get this crash out of the way

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Paying other people interest to borrow money from ourselves that we don't have...... Asimov

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Equalitarian
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I believe that this will ultimately be worse than 1930's or especially the 1870's because everyone is so much further removed from self-sufficiency. In the 1870's and to a lesser degree in the 1930's, a lot more people knew how to farm, hunt, sew, etc. They did not rely on prepared frozen meals or restaurants as their primary source of food. They walked or travelled by horse and for much shorter distances than many of today's daily commutes. Many did not have the "luxuries" of indoor plumbing and the "convenience" of electrical appliances. What happens in our cities and towns when the basic utilities (gas, electric, water, sewage, trash pick-up) are interrupted?

Reason: spelling
Genesis
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Bear, that's not how it will work out.

Clinton thought the same thing. The bond market schooled him - severely.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Aliveh
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Typo alert 3.6% not 36% from the top today.
Mezzmor
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Let's make something clear here. THIS BELONGS TO OBAMA.

He has had ample time to issue executive orders, and for the FBI to start rolling on those orders and issue indictments. He has had ample time to kill the OTC CDS market and get that garbage placed on an exchange with valid restrictions, again by executive fiat. He has 5 or 6 cabinet placements that are crooks that we know of. He tossed in another 750 billion bucks for banks in his new budget. The troop drawdown in Iraq won't begin until next summer at least.

No matter how badly Bush and his cronies screwed over the country, Obama has had ample time to work on the turnaround.

I was recently promoted at my job to fix another manager's mess. I had to fire that manager, clean house, lay down rules, and furthermore, meet with the employees left in the department, lay out a carefully thought out plan of action
to the employees, sell them on my concepts, then give the CEO my plans along with a timeline and a way to monitor progress. This is management 101 and it is apparent that for the most part, zero point zero of these people (aside from maybe Emmanuel) are skilled enough to manage a flea market booth.

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Once the "Progressive" and the "educated" have completely destroyed the country, the logical, the wise, and the experienced will rebuild it.
Themortgagedude
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History will pin this on Bush. He's too easy of a mark. And academics are generally liberally biased. If its still bad in 8 years maybe they'll pin the inability to recover on BHO. We'll know the truth though. BHO did not do the right thing. He should have collapsed the market immediately by taking all the crap out of the system and sent them packing. We would have crashed and recovered slightly already. If he continues to kick the can - well God help us.

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1lumpsum
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History may be writing that blames this on the "Evil Capitalists" or "Evil Zionists". Depending on what part of the world you live in.
Parcontre
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Obama inherited a mess, but he has made it a lot worse. I was buying January SPX calls in Decembre and into January expecting a big rally. I'm bearish longer term, but I figured we were due for a bounce, and a new president should be a confidence booster. Plus McHugh was calling for a C wave up before the big crash.

But he killed any hope of a rally, first with his "stimulus," and then with his budget, and all the while failing to stop the bailouts or establish any transparency. The bottom line, regardless of what the media says, this year's selloff is all Obama's.

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Anti
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nice work Mezzmor. BHO appears to think all that is need is to look good and sound articulate

typo:"that a reply of at least the 1930s " you meant "repeat" right?

"bar wood" -- bare wood?

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Fatso
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I think Obama neither understands nor cares what the market does.

The question is: when will he understand? Because a moment will arrive when he understands. That moment will be incredible.
Trader_kid
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Quote:
History will pin this on Bush. He's too easy of a mark.

Quote:
History may be writing that blames this on the "Evil Capitalists" or "Evil Zionists".

yeah, ultimately i think the blame will be pinned on "deregulation" or "wild west capitalism." it's easier to pin that kind of thing on bush and republicans. any failure by obama could be spun as some sort of "valiant effort" that was just too little too late.

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"When the fear of losing money overcomes the fear of being thought stupid, that's when you get capitulation." - Art Cashin
Bozonian
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The Bezzle will out out, and some necks will come off.

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Forget about blaming, fighting with, or crediting other people. The only real challenge in life, is with yourself. -- Me

Everything I write is my opinion and not to be considered proven fact. Nothing I write should be considered financial advice.
Dkane
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Finally I found what KD is referring to as "The Bezzle" as I couldn't find a direct explanation of this in previous tickers - only reference to it.

http://dealbook.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/1....

Quote:
First come the losses and the stupidities committed by bankers working for their own self-interest. Then come the rogue traders, unable to ‘fess up on market bets gone wrong. The last to arrive is the bezzle.

That was John Kenneth Galbraith’s word for the outright frauds - the “inventory of undiscovered embezzlement” - that are built up when markets are good. These can be kept hidden for as long as the lies hold up, Breakingviews notes.


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What if everything you ever believed was a fabricated lie? Copy, paste and bookmark for a rainy day - 2 hours.
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Risingcream
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I still think the rich can control the poor. The USA will continue on South Africa style with the poor eating their own.

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East2west
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The events this week are pitiful. For a president of the United States to stand up, in the middle of an historic economic downturn, and tell the world that he "isn't concerned" with the stock market because it just goes "up and down" is an incredible act of incompetence. As Karl says, Obama OWNS what's happened since he took office. The "we inherited this" line only goes so far when you are throwing gasoline into the fire.

I'm not letting Bush off the hook, or all of the other crooks that have or are sitting in Congress, while letting their "campaign donors" get away fraud and corruption, but we are reaching a new level of shame here, in my opinion. This is just more of the same dangerous crapola we've been getting for the past eight years, tied up with a pretty new bow.

It just gets worse and worse, and the worst part is no one in D.C. seems particularly concerned. No, scratch that. The worst part is that so few people in America seem particularly concerned. I am deeply saddened by what is happening to our country -- and I'm not talking just about the markets. This is a day I never thought I'd see. I am heartbroken.
Mtgspy
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Karl, did you buy physical Au recently?

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Genesis
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No.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Mtgspy
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ok, let us know when you are. I read somewhere someone said u did buy a gob load but i guess that was not right.

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I'll stay away from this one, I'll instead grab my smiley and watch the pretty fireworks. - Karl
Safety is the greatest risk of all, because safety leaves no room for miracles and miracles are the only sure thing in life. - A random black supporting actor.
We iz all gonna diiiiiieeeeeeee. - Raingod
Genesis
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You didn't hear it from me.

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I don't care if it makes sense -- only if it makes money. -- Me
Bank (n): See scam, fraud and theft. Eat a bankster -- they're low-carb.
What part of "shall not be infringed" was unclear?
Widgeon
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There IS plenty here that is Dumbya's.

However, as The Ticker states, "O" has now had plenty of time to Act by issuing EO's and the like to address the fraud. He Has Not ... and as The Ticker ALSO says he has persisted in appointing and supporting the very same career politicians and cheats that got us here.

No Change.

Provocateur
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Excellent ticker and an excellent follow up by Mezzmor.
Schwantz
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I bought some gold a few days ago, but that was to cover my short!

smiley

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When the system is corrupt absolutely you must seek representation by those who are absolutely incorruptible.
Torgo
Posts: 451
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Obama had 3 months to get his cabinet together and treasury properly staffed with non-crooks. Instead he spent the time partying, eating wagyu beef and flying in Hollywood to entertain his daughters.

I guess he had a fiscal & health care summit. What a joke those were; it looked like something a bad college professor would have undergrads do (go off in focus groups and report back to me and the end of the day...WTF?).

Oh...and Obama won't have Hillary's problem with health care reform. They are just appropriating money ($680B) as a general budget item (i.e. it is a huge slush fund). Their first step is setting up 250 health care centers to get people used to "free" health care and drive private practice out of business.

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